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Are the Wildlings really doomed?


Craving Peaches
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6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

While I have said before that wildlings need to assimilate, I will point out here that Mountain Clans in the Vale as well as the clans in the North also appear to maintain their own culture. So not all Wildlings need to assimilate, especially not immediately, so long as they don't cause trouble.

Issue of course being that there are likely simply too many wildlings to establish such isolated societies. So majority of them will probably need to assimilate in due time.

Of course, one would imagine that it will be a slow process, taking decades and centuries. But one would imagine that the feudal lords who rebuild the northern parts of the North in the wake of the defeat of the Others will want to take possession of the lands and resources beyond the Wall. Also, of course, they would like to push back the surviving wildlings further who, without a Wall to hinder their raidings anymore, would remain a constant threat.

But there certainly might remain very obscure places close to the Lands of Always Winter - which then might be mundane arctic territory - where the old ways effectively survive for a very long time.

Also, of course, normal seasons should change things throughout the world, making agriculture likely easier and more profitable, so silly raiding practices and stuff are likely to die out, anyway.

The clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon might actually suffer greatly in the coming winter, so I'm not sure much of their culture will survive the coming wars. But that's another issue and also kind of silly since the wildlings up there really make no sense. The idea that no efforts would be made for millennia to resolve this issue makes no sense. The Arryns wouldn't really suffer this problem this long, nor would the wildlings up there be happy to remain there forever. Back before the Conquest an obvious ploy for an Arryn king would have been to strike a deal with the a big group of the clansmen and invade the Riverlands together, settling the wildlings in whatever lands they would conquer together. Also, of course, whenever a plague or a hard winter hit the lands hard, there would have been more than enough land to settle people in. Yet the reason why the wildlings are in the mountains is basically that there is not enough land for them in the Vale.

And that the Targaryen kings would allow their overland passes into the Vale be plagued by those people also feels pretty off. The high road alone is so dangerous that you can only travel it in strength - that should be poison to trade between the Vale and the rest of Westeros.

Also, of course, it feels silly that the clansmen don't get rich and complacent by way of demanding fees and tolls for safe passage through their lands. Why aren't they like the Freys?

We can also expect that the silly customs of the Ironborn die out. Quellon already tried to do away with it, Balon kind of revived them, but Euron now leads his people to destruction. We can expect that most of his followers will die or never return to the Iron Islands, so regardless if it is Asha or Theon who picks up the pieces ... the raiding days will be over.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, of course, normal seasons should change things throughout the world, making agriculture likely easier and more profitable, so silly raiding practices and stuff are likely to die out, anyway.

 

Raiding does not always die out because agriculture is more profitable. Look at the Ottomans: Ottoman Empire kept raiding its neighbors for booty and slaves until it was militarily stopped, despite having inherited agriculture and administration from the Byzantine Empire which generally did not do so. Likewise, Barbary Corsairs kept raiding all across the Mediterranean until stopped by force in 19th century (in fact, question of Barbary Corsairs directly led to European conquest of North Africa).

That being said, rest of the post I basically agree with.

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12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, one would imagine that it will be a slow process, taking decades and centuries. But one would imagine that the feudal lords who rebuild the northern parts of the North in the wake of the defeat of the Others will want to take possession of the lands and resources beyond the Wall. Also, of course, they would like to push back the surviving wildlings further who, without a Wall to hinder their raidings anymore, would remain a constant threat.

Your looking at it through southerners and not freefolk, who are out of a job. Ygritte paints a vivid picture on why freefolk are free, because they don't bow to the wall. But now they do, so with anarchy out the window they can only become subjects of the crown. And since they are culturally very similar to the Northerners assimilation will not be a century thing.

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But there certainly might remain very obscure places close to the Lands of Always Winter - which then might be mundane arctic territory - where the old ways effectively survive for a very long time.

Oh yea. They won't be assimilated until like, the Thenns strike oil.

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon might actually suffer greatly in the coming winter, so I'm not sure much of their culture will survive the coming wars. But that's another issue and also kind of silly since the wildlings up there really make no sense. The idea that no efforts would be made for millennia to resolve this issue makes no sense. The Arryns wouldn't really suffer this problem this long, nor would the wildlings up there be happy to remain there forever. Back before the Conquest an obvious ploy for an Arryn king would have been to strike a deal with the a big group of the clansmen and invade the Riverlands together, settling the wildlings in whatever lands they would conquer together. Also, of course, whenever a plague or a hard winter hit the lands hard, there would have been more than enough land to settle people in. Yet the reason why the wildlings are in the mountains is basically that there is not enough land for them in the Vale.

And that the Targaryen kings would allow their overland passes into the Vale be plagued by those people also feels pretty off. The high road alone is so dangerous that you can only travel it in strength - that should be poison to trade between the Vale and the rest of Westeros.

Also, of course, it feels silly that the clansmen don't get rich and complacent by way of demanding fees and tolls for safe passage through their lands. Why aren't they like the Freys?

Its definitely remarkable that the indigenous remain independent, as thats unheard of in like Lannisters West. (Probably)

The explanation I think is that they're tough. (Pardon me, can you say that again in my necklace?) And the mountains are great for gorilla warfare, hence unable to conquer. I suppose it'd be good for the war/trade to invite Targaryen to the highroad but that'd put infringe on Arryn pride and honor, which they're infamously obsessed with.

They also feel like they own the Mountains and the Lowland lords act like they can use it with impunity, so for them to tax something that's already theirs doesn't make any sense either.

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We can also expect that the silly customs of the Ironborn die out. Quellon already tried to do away with it, Balon kind of revived them, but Euron now leads his people to destruction. We can expect that most of his followers will die or never return to the Iron Islands, so regardless if it is Asha or Theon who picks up the pieces ... the raiding days will be over.

The Ironborn unanimously loved Balon and nearly unanimous with Euron, the will only stop raiding when they're all dead. But it's not just wildlings and indigenous and ironborn who raid, it's all of Westeros. Like Dorne and the Reach which although is not certified by the state it pretty much is

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1 minute ago, Aldarion said:

Raiding does not always die out because agriculture is more profitable. Look at the Ottomans: Ottoman Empire kept raiding its neighbors for booty and slaves until it was militarily stopped, despite having inherited agriculture and administration from the Byzantine Empire which generally did not do so. Likewise, Barbary Corsairs kept raiding all across the Mediterranean until stopped by force in 19th century (in fact, question of Barbary Corsairs directly led to European conquest of North Africa).

That being said, rest of the post I basically agree with.

Yeah, but wildling raiding - like Ironborn raiding - seems to go back to the fact that they have no other means to gain wealth or the bare necessities they need to survive freak winters. There is also a manly things to that.

Wildlings and Ironborn also do have agriculture - and that should be more profitable when winters no longer suck as hard as they do now.

It is not all that much a business or a cultural practice supported by a working state.

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23 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Melisandre believes the Wildings are doomed. This is what she thinks:

Quote

 None of his free folk mattered. They were a lost people, a doomed people, destined to vanish from the earth, as the children of the forest had vanished.

Now I think she is being a bit dismissive here, but besides that, I wonder what makes her think this. I presume it is a vision, if so I have to question how likely it really is, given Melisandre doesn't have a fool proof track record when it comes to interpretation her visions.

Her track record (and the other red priests' and Jojen's, and Maggy's) shows that prophetic visions are real, but are hard to make use of. As a rule, they come true, though maybe in an unexpected way. And maybe closing off one possibility just allows another to appear.

So as things stand right now, destiny is saying the free folk will vanish. This is not even unlikely, given that they're all based at the Wall, for two reasons. First, the Wall is loaded with ghost imagery - ghost castles, watchers in the walls, Mad Axe and so on. The Wall is the land of the dead. Second (for everyone who believes that winter is in fact coming), a supernaturally enhanced winter will be impossible to survive there.

A reminder of how Nan puts it: Thousands and thousands of years ago, a winter fell that was cold and hard and endless beyond all memory of man. There came a night that lasted a generation, and kings shivered and died in their castles even as the swineherds in their hovels.

The only hope for the wildlings is for the entire magic system to break, and all prophecies rendered void.

23 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Since all of the above don't seem that probable, I wonder if Melisandre is really right here. I also don't want her to be right as I think it would be a real shame if all the Wildlings just vanished.

GRRM wrote Mel and Old Nan in a way to be despised as truth tellers, but that also makes them a great place to hide facts in plain sight - I've no doubt he's done that.

Where Mel might be wrong is not applying the 'one tower may stand in for another' principle. It's possible the free folk in her vision are merely the symbol for free-willed humanity in general - this would be the ghost grass scenario, everyone a wight of sorts, and mind control (from gods/Others/whatever) ruling over all.

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22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Why? Sure, Martin may not go that route, but realistically, Wildlings have a choice of either dying north of the Wall or living south of it... and if they live south of the Wall, they will eventually have to accept Westerosi way of life... or else perish. Much like barbarians rather quickly adapted Roman way of life when the Western Empire fell.

Yes, they are doomed. They are not exactly a cohesive group to start with. I think, just like you stated, some will die north of the wall, some will be killed south of the wall. More will be assimilated into the south. Post WW invasion, there will be little left of the wilding culture. 

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3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

But that only goes if this is what she actually saw in a vision. And we've no way to tell whether she is thinking about what she actually saw or her interpretation of what she saw.

True - except this is a story, so constructed in a way that's interesting and meaningful.

(We could assume the opposite - that Mel is just spewing nonsense - but what then? Is this random filler even worth our time to read, let alone discuss?)

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38 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

True - except this is a story, so constructed in a way that's interesting and meaningful.

(We could assume the opposite - that Mel is just spewing nonsense - but what then? Is this random filler even worth our time to read, let alone discuss?)

I think these aren’t the only options here, that Mel is either spot on or spewing nonsense. It’s entirely possible that the truth of the matter lies somewhere in the middle, and there are more than one possibility when looking away from the extreme opposites. For instance, it’s possible she believes her own interpretation of a vision but her interpretation is incorrect, either fully or partially. Or that there was no specific vision about it at all, and she’s just assuming they’ll probably all die and that it doesn’t matter b/c these are savages that worship trees. And so on.

@Craving Peaches, I think I may have misunderstood the original question in the OP… It seems people are answering a question about the culture of the FF surviving and whether they’ll be totally assimilated. I thought you were asking about their actual survival. :dunno:

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Each time the NW went north, it was disaster and death: the Fist, Hardhome. Even small rangings: Waymar, Benjen. While the Free Folks are there by the 1000's and are more or less unharmed. The Others find who they want, when they want. Once the Wall will be down and the Winter everywhere, I don't think the FF will be the more at risk.

Edited by BalerionTheCat
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10 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think I may have misunderstood the original question in the OP… It seems people are answering a question about the culture of the FF surviving and whether they’ll be totally assimilated. I thought you were asking about their actual survival. :dunno:

It was supposed to be both because when Melisandre says they will 'vanish', assuming she is actually correct, which is open to debate, one of the ways they could do so would be to lose their status as a separate people, rather than being wiped out.

11 hours ago, Springwatch said:

(We could assume the opposite - that Mel is just spewing nonsense - but what then? Is this random filler even worth our time to read, let alone discuss?)

I think, as @kissdbyfire says, there is middle ground to be had here. Assuming there was a legitimate vision but Melisandre just misinterpreted it, for example 'lost' could mean 'without a leader', 'vanish' like the CotF could mean they would take refuge from the Others in the caves, as the CotF had done, 'doomed' in its older meaning just means having a set fate/destiny, not necessary a negative one, so it could just signal that the Free Folk are fated to fight the Others.

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5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

'lost' could mean 'without a leader', 'vanish' like the CotF could mean they would take refuge from the Others in the caves, as the CotF had done, 'doomed' in its older meaning just means having a set fate/destiny, not necessary a negative one,

This is playing with words. I don't think she had a precise vision of their doom. She believes so because they don't believe in her god. And she thinks only Rh'llor's followers will make it thru.

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

so it could just signal that the Free Folk are fated to fight the Others

Not sure of that.

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