Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[The Fresh PtwP]

Ok this has been driving me crazy for a long time now. A ton of people think Varys/Illyrio's plan was for Dany and Viserys to cross the Narrow Sea with a Dothraki horde, cause chaos, then Aegon swoops in with the GC to save the day and become a "savior king". It's been repeated many times and a ton of people treat it as canon.

Except that "plan" is nowhere in the text! It's not even hinted at. It's a complete forum creation. That was not, is not, and never was the plan. 

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

[Craving Peaches]

It's one of the possible plans, since we don't know and likely won't know anything for sure about what 'The Plan' was, people have to speculate to fill the gap. As long as people don't treat it like it is something actually in the text but make it clear it is just a suggestion...

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Ok this has been driving me crazy for a long time now. A ton of people think Varys/Illyrio's plan was for Dany and Viserys to cross the Narrow Sea with a Dothraki horde, cause chaos, then Aegon swoops in with the GC to save the day and become a "savior king". It's been repeated many times and a ton of people treat it as canon.

Except that "plan" is nowhere in the text! It's not even hinted at. It's a complete forum creation. That was not, is not, and never was the plan. 

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

I think the text points to an intention to unite the three. Dany with 3 dragon eggs and Viserys backing Aegon would have added to the legitimacy of Aegon. Illyrio misjudged both Dany and Viserys: he thought of her as no more than fearful pretty eye-candy and Viserys as easily to be manipulated with flattery. 

[The Fresh PtwP]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

It's one of the possible plans, since we don't know and likely won't know anything for sure about what 'The Plan' was, people have to speculate to fill the gap. As long as people don't treat it like it is something actually in the text but make it clear it is just a suggestion...

They never do though, it's stated and repeated as gospel truth. Worse, it's tied in with the (F)Aegon theory so folks are really smug and condescending about it.

[Alester Florent]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I think the text points to an intention to unite the three. Dany with 3 dragon eggs and Viserys backing Aegon would have added to the legitimacy of Aegon. Illyrio misjudged both Dany and Viserys: he thought of her as no more than fearful pretty eye-candy and Viserys as easily to be manipulated with flattery. 

The problem with any plan to combine the two military forces is Viserys, who Illyrio knows is useless, but who wouldn't tolerate being pushed aside for Aegon: after all, Viserys probably remembers that his father named him heir, even if nobody else would care about that given laws of primogeniture and general merit. I would expect the intention would be for Viserys to be quietly disposed of once he served his purpose, that purpose being essentially to unite the Dothraki and Golden Company, and impart his established legitimacy to Aegon as claimant (since Aegon is generally believed dead, Viserys recognising him as his nephew would go a long way to answering any questions in that regard).

I don't buy into the idea that the intention was for Dany and Viserys to make a mess with the Dothraki for the Golden Company to clean up, not least because we're specifically told by the Golden Company themselves that the plan while Viserys was alive was for him and his Dothraki to join them.

[frenin]

I don't think there was much of a plan but the hope of one. 

How Drogo is handled, how Dany and Viserys are handled, how they decide to just goad Robert into killing Dany because Drogo isn't cooperating.

[Crona]

3 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I think the text points to an intention to unite the three. Dany with 3 dragon eggs and Viserys backing Aegon would have added to the legitimacy of Aegon. Illyrio misjudged both Dany and Viserys: he thought of her as no more than fearful pretty eye-candy and Viserys as easily to be manipulated with flattery. 

That's what I got from the text too:

Which plan? The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well. I have had enough of Illyrio’s plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons. We can do the same.

 

35 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The problem with any plan to combine the two military forces is Viserys, who Illyrio knows is useless, but who wouldn't tolerate being pushed aside for Aegon: after all, Viserys probably remembers that his father named him heir, even if nobody else would care about that given laws of primogeniture and general merit. I would expect the intention would be for Viserys to be quietly disposed of once he served his purpose, that purpose being essentially to unite the Dothraki and Golden Company, and impart his established legitimacy to Aegon as claimant (since Aegon is generally believed dead, Viserys recognising him as his nephew would go a long way to answering any questions in that regard).

Viserys has no allies, not even the Dothraki were his after the wedding. They do not need an elaborate plot to get rid of Viserys, either he agrees to go to Westeros under the Targaryen banner or he stays in Essos as the Beggar King. 

[frenin]

57 minutes ago, Crona said:

Viserys has no allies, not even the Dothraki were his after the wedding. They do not need an elaborate plot to get rid of Viserys, either he agrees to go to Westeros under the Targaryen banner or he stays in Essos as the Beggar King. 

Maybe but till he burned all his bridges with Dany in the Dothrakki see, he still had seniority over her.

I find it very unlikely that Drogo, who by starters was already opposed to cross the Narrow Sea, goes along if his wife and brother in law oppose the plan or Aegon.

Without his uncles' endorsement...  Aegon starts looking like just another Blackfyre pretender easly dealt with during the last quarter of a century.

[Crona]

2 minutes ago, frenin said:

Maybe but till he burned all his bridges with Dany in the Dothrakki see, he still had seniority over her.

I do not recall this. From the reading, he does not have any "seniority" over Dany or really anyone in the Dothraki. Remember when he tried to attack Dany, one of the Dothraki had grabbed him and asked if Dany wanted to kill him. They had him sit with the old women and men etc...He only sat sometimes in a seat of honor just because he was Dany's brother. 

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

I find it very unlikely that Drogo, who by starters was already opposed to cross the Narrow Sea, goes along if his wife and brother in law oppose the plan or Aegon.

Drogo made the deal with Illyrio. That is why he gave Illyrio presents and was following the orders of Illyrio...when he married Dany, Viserys was supposed to stay with Illryio till Drogo and Dany come back from Vaes Dothrak. At the time, Illryio wanted to delay..

10 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

Without his uncles' endorsement...  Aegon starts looking like just another Blackfyre pretender easly dealt with during the last quarter of a century.

He doesn't necessarily need Viserys, he does have Jon Connington the former hand that confirms who he is. He would also have Dany (she is already married to Drogo and I doubt Viserys would be able to take her from Drogo). 

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

The problem with any plan to combine the two military forces is Viserys, who Illyrio knows is useless, but who wouldn't tolerate being pushed aside for Aegon: after all, Viserys probably remembers that his father named him heir, even if nobody else would care about that given laws of primogeniture and general merit.

We know that about Viserys, but I doubt that Illyrio has this type of human insight. He didn't have with Dany, or Selmy or Tyrion.

[frenin]

5 minutes ago, Crona said:

I do not recall this. From the reading, he does not have any "seniority" over Dany or really anyone in the Dothraki. Remember when he tried to attack Dany, one of the Dothraki had grabbed him and asked if Dany wanted to kill him. They had him sit with the old women and men etc...He only sat sometimes in a seat of honor just because he was Dany's brother. 

It's all over the first part of the book honestly.

Dany feared him but still had the Stockholm syndrome because he had been her primary caretaker all her life. That only goes away while at the Dothraki sea once Viserys starts to well... be him.

But during the first half, Dany is still pretty attached to Viserys.

8 minutes ago, Crona said:

Drogo made the deal with Illyrio. That is why he gave Illyrio presents and was following the orders of Illyrio...when he married Dany, Viserys was supposed to stay with Illryio till Drogo and Dany come back from Vaes Dothrak. At the time, Illryio wanted to delay..

Drogo made a deal, that he did, whatever the terms of the deal were, we do not know.

What we do know is that he had no intention to cross the Narrow Sea, he'd have even less intentions if his wifw, who he has started to like and listening, is opposed to the idea and or Aegon.

 

10 minutes ago, Crona said:

He doesn't necessarily need Viserys, he does have Jon Connington the former hand that confirms who he is. He would also have Dany (she is already married to Drogo and I doubt Viserys would be able to take her from Drogo). 

He needs Viserys and he needs Dany.

JonCon in or by himself wouldn't be enough to actually carry people in normal circumstances. If Viserys and Dany were to put their claims aside for this stranger... that's another matter.

But again, I don't think Illyrio had any sort of plan, just ideas and a lot of riches to throw at people.

 

[astarkchoice]

The plan changes as circumstances do.

So lets break it down. 

We have ilyrio and varys, made rich off the secrets and pretending to recover/protect secrets to the point ilyrio is a very wealthy man. Varys is brought across the narrow sea to establish a spy network in the 7 kingdoms but probably maintains his old one in essos too....so much insider knowledge  probably allows ilyrio to  fabulosly wealthy, so wealthy he can help get a triach elected in  powerful volantis. 

At some point hes set to mary into the very familes that rule pentos but   falls for a blackfyre bride and produces faegon , he and his eunch mate embark on a plan to take the throne with him.

Now the issue is the rebellion created a dynasty which welded 5 of the 7 kingdoms together into an alliance not easily broken

So they plot and in waiting  take in the beggar king and queen as both possible distractionans and/or to use as  marriage alliance  maker (visrerys and dorne) now all this time varys can seem like a fucking wizzard tracking these 2 as unbeknownst to roberet  he hes part of the duo moving them around! 

Varys utter control of the information and 'game of thrones' is shattered by his equaly clever rival LIttlefinger . To counter the 'littlebirds' in  secret tunnels  and  varys  tactics of sneaking in and copying private  letters or listening to conversations through secret walls  LF  has whorehouses and taverns where  his people can hear people talk when drunk or 'happy'  This combined with all his people in charge of finances means he has an equally strong intel network. To muddy the waters further at KL the ultra wealthy new queen for unknown reasons seems to buy up informants and plays the game too if far more clumsy than the other 2.   Her wealth , family and position however land her key personel as  'hers'   some kingsguard like trant and blout ,pycelle (who all raven messages go through) ,lancel and of course  slynt and his captains ..... ..... the 3 begin having their people try and follow and watch each other everhwhere if possible and thus the game becomes muddy and complex before we even get into the 3 hands that come and go

The plan continues however we hear  thrm.mention its going faster than the 2 would like, the liom and wolf are almost at war

The dothraki horde was most likely always a smokescreen and a distraction.....unlikely to come across the sea unless drogo could be provoked (say murdering his wife) ..if it actualy came across then fantastic , thats a huge bonus, a sidemission if you will. Now if a dothraki force is  agaisnt all odds to come across the water volantis is one of the few powers that can move that much horses and men safely and ilyrio had bought and paid for one of their triachs.

The real plan as we saw has faegon at the centre backed by the golden company

Varys is there in westeros able to sniff out which houses would back the targs , stir up a war and thanks to his knowledge of the red keep he can kill any capable opponents in power . The.prospect of a dothraki horde at theit backs is also told to the golden company possibly as it sounds much better than ''my fat eunuch freiend will create war for you tontake advantage of''

Now he marries the promising khal drogo to dany and has viserys spare , dany is to be murdered to enragr the khal .....again wether ot not khal drogo does assist doesnt matter  its something to promise the golden company and something to get tounges wagging in westeros about how they feel about targ rule (for little birds to hear) the real meat is golden company backed by westeros allies and very possibly volantis and probably  as much extra merc muscle as ilyrio can buy!!!

Now khal drogo and viserys die but the good news is westeros is aflame so he sends strong belwas, his lucky new find of ser barristan and 3 or so ships loaded with rare goods  to dany to come back to pentos to adjust.

The golden company we are told approach volantis (as they are told) and are made to back off by the forces  of the very triarch ilyrio has bought...dany has gone off plan and gone east and aparently has actual dragons!!!

The plan must again be adjusted as dany has gone east ,spent ilyrios 3 ships of goods  BUT good news  also  the heir to casterly  rock falls into their lap and a dornish prince is heading there too 

With tywin dead cersi is fucking up spectacularly and any attemt to right the ship   is ended by varys and crossbow.....varys does this as he  cannot fuck around in the shadows  anymore , the lil scamp tyrion  has messed up the  adjusted plans with faegon, the centrepeice to their plans to rule has crossed the sea and is engaged in battle ahead of schedule so kl must have more chaos.

Edited April 15, 2023 by astarkchoice

[Crona]

4 hours ago, frenin said:

It's all over the first part of the book honestly.

Dany feared him but still had the Stockholm syndrome because he had been her primary caretaker all her life. That only goes away while at the Dothraki sea once Viserys starts to well... be him.

But during the first half, Dany is still pretty attached to Viserys.

I think we are talking about two different things, I am talking about control of the Dothraki.  Viserys did not have power over the Dothraki. 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

 

Drogo made a deal, that he did, whatever the terms of the deal were, we do not know.

What we do know is that he had no intention to cross the Narrow Sea, he'd have even less intentions if his wifw, who he has started to like and listening, is opposed to the idea and or Aegon.

 

We do know part of the deal was that Drogo was going to give Illyrio 50k Dothraki screamers, but he only had about 40k or so (it was definitely lower than 50k), he was probably planning to get more dothraki. Which Illyrio in turn was planning to give to Viserys to take command of. So it doesn't necessarily mean Drogo was going to cross the Narrow Sea. When Dany was almost poisoned and Drogo decided to go to the Narrow Sea, this effectively made Viserys useless (although he was dead already).

 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

He needs Viserys and he needs Dany.

JonCon in or by himself wouldn't be enough to actually carry people in normal circumstances. If Viserys and Dany were to put their claims aside for this stranger... that's another matter.

But again, I don't think Illyrio had any sort of plan, just ideas and a lot of riches to throw at people.

 

 I think you are putting too much importance on Viserys and Dany (Dany did not have any dragons at this point). At the end of the day, Illyrio could simply tell them either they can join them or get lost in Essos and Viserys and Dany would have nothing.  If Viserys was really important then Illyrio would have been more adamant for Viserys to stay with him after the marriage. 

Illyrio did have plans, he said that his plan took years that Viserys messed up. Although, he had a difficult guessing what they would do next. I mean how is he supposed to know that Viserys would be stupid enough to threaten Dany in front of Drogo. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by Crona

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

6 hours ago, Crona said:

That's what I got from the text too:

Which plan? The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well. I have had enough of Illyrio’s plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons. We can do the same.

 

This. 

I also think this is George telling the reader that the author has changed his mind on these plans several times as well. 

George is the fat man.

[frenin]

32 minutes ago, Crona said:

I think we are talking about two different things, I am talking about control of the Dothraki.  Viserys did not have power over the Dothraki. 

Was talking about Dany the whole time, hence why i said Dany and not Drogo.

 

33 minutes ago, Crona said:

We do know part of the deal was that Drogo was going to give Illyrio 50k Dothraki screamers, but he only had about 40k or so (it was definitely lower than 50k), he was probably planning to get more dothraki. Which Illyrio in turn was planning to give to Viserys to take command of. So it doesn't necessarily mean Drogo was going to cross the Narrow Sea. When Dany was almost poisoned and Drogo decided to go to the Narrow Sea, this effectively made Viserys useless (although he was dead already).

The deal was gifting 10k to Viserys, afaik. And using them to get the Iron Throne, Drogo has no intentions to do either anyway.

Whe Dany's life is threatened, his plan is raping a few villages, buy himself boats and ship off, again neither Ilyrio nor Aegon come up in his line of thinking.

 

36 minutes ago, Crona said:

I think you are putting too much importance on Viserys and Dany (Dany did not have any dragons at this point). At the end of the day, Illyrio could simply tell them either they can join them or get lost in Essos and Viserys and Dany would have nothing.  If Viserys was really important then Illyrio would have been more adamant for Viserys to stay with him after the marriage. 

Eh, I think that you are underestimating the siblings, Illyrio keeps doing this again and again.

Aegon needs the support and legitimacy Viserys and Dany bring, without this, he'd look like an impostor JonCon just finished fabricating and he's doomed before sailing to face Robert.

But Illyrio does think of the siblings and expendable and easily manageables... and they keep surprising him at every turn, Viserys willing himself to the Dothraki sea and getting killed there, Dany surviving the Dothraki sea (Illyrio expected her to die there) and emerging a conqueror and a mother of dragons.

 

45 minutes ago, Crona said:

Illyrio did have plans, he said that his plan took years that Viserys messed up. Although, he had a difficult guessing what they would do next. I mean how is he supposed to know that Viserys would be stupid enough to threaten Dany in front of Drogo. 

His plans are so fluid as to not being plans at all.

He knew Viserys for years, he ought to know he'd be stupid enough to get himself killed.

 

[SeanF]

Succeed or fail, the hit on Daenerys and Rhaego makes good sense - not as a way of protecting Robert, but as a way of provoking Drogo’s revenge.

The hit itself was amateurish in the extreme.  I think that was deliberate.

[Curled Finger]

11 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Ok this has been driving me crazy for a long time now. A ton of people think Varys/Illyrio's plan was for Dany and Viserys to cross the Narrow Sea with a Dothraki horde, cause chaos, then Aegon swoops in with the GC to save the day and become a "savior king". It's been repeated many times and a ton of people treat it as canon.

Except that "plan" is nowhere in the text! It's not even hinted at. It's a complete forum creation. That was not, is not, and never was the plan. 

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

Lots of things in this series that are not plainly stated that are pointed to throughout the story or maybe only hinted at.  While no, we don't get a conversation or letter or expose between Illyrio and Varys we do a ton of indirect interaction.  It's circuitous and historical and clever headachy stuff, but it's there beneath a mountain of other stuff.   Martin enjoys his devices.  

[Crona]

54 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

The deal was gifting 10k to Viserys, afaik. And using them to get the Iron Throne, Drogo has no intentions to do either anyway.

Whe Dany's life is threatened, his plan is raping a few villages, buy himself boats and ship off, again neither Ilyrio nor Aegon come up in his line of thinking.

Well then why was the Golden Company expecting 50k dothraki? Was Illyrio planning on the Golden Company to not notice they were short a significant amount of dothraki (Strickland does not seem to be the type to agree on less). There was a deal struck between Drogo and Illyrio. For Drogo, he got an Valyrian wife for his prophecy and for Illyrio, he was promised an army. It could be that Drogo was not intending on fullfilling his end of the bargain, however that was changed when they sent the poisoner. 

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

But Illyrio does think of the siblings and expendable and easily manageables... and they keep surprising him at every turn, Viserys willing himself to the Dothraki sea and getting killed there, Dany surviving the Dothraki sea (Illyrio expected her to die there) and emerging a conqueror and a mother of dragons.

 

That's the whole issue. Illyrio makes these deals but he underestimates them at every turn. He believes Viserys would agree to allow Aegon to be king because he views Viserys as pathetic and would jump at the chance to go home again. Not knowing how truly mad Viserys was.

He did not think Dany would be important, but she ends up hatching dragons.  Illyio learns of this, he sends ships to her and bring her back to Pentos. But instead she goes to Slaver's Bay. Now, for some reason he thought Dany would be in Volantis, but she is not. Only Aegon shows up. 

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

At some point hes set to mary into the very familes that rule pentos but   falls for a blackfyre bride and produces faegon , he and his eunch mate embark on a plan to take the throne with him.

This is an assumption that is not necessarily true. It is entirely possible that Varys actually did manage to save baby Aegon and sent him to Pentos into Illyrio's care. But something might have happened to Aegon on the voyage or in Pentos and Illyrio swapped real Aegon with his own son. Varys trusts Illyrio. He doesn't spyw on Illyrio and therefore does not know what Illyrio may have been doing behind his back. And so you end up with Varys believing Aegon is real as much as JonCon does, but Illyrio played his friend. And it may even have occurred out of necessity. Babies can die, in their sleep even.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Succeed or fail, the hit on Daenerys and Rhaego makes good sense - not as a way of protecting Robert, but as a way of provoking Drogo’s revenge.

The hit itself was amateurish in the extreme.  I think that was deliberate.

Fully agree. On top of that, with the caravan that brought the Lyseni poisoner to the market, so arrived the letter for Viserys to warn him of exactly such potential attempts at the same time. Poisoner and letter journeyed and arrived with the same caravan. That letter was not addressed to Jorah, but Viserys, so Dany was indeed lucky that Jorah thought of checking the mail.

Clearly, Illyrio believed that Viserys would act to protect the sister he desired (and Illyrio knew Viserys had intended to rape his sister the night before her wedding) and then get Drogo on board.