Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[sweetsunray]

38 minutes ago, Crona said:

Now, for some reason he thought Dany would be in Volantis, but she is not. Only Aegon shows up. 

He would have assumed she attacked the cities in Slaver's Bay to amass herself an army of freed slaves and Unsullied to go take the IT. That was not so flawed a supposition, since that was her plan until Meereen and she learned what was becoming of Astapor. And to take her army to the IT she would have required a fleet. Slaver's bay does not really have a fleet. Volantis does.

[Crona]

39 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

He would have assumed she attacked the cities in Slaver's Bay to amass herself an army of freed slaves and Unsullied to go take the IT. That was not so flawed a supposition, since that was her plan until Meereen and she learned what was becoming of Astapor. And to take her army to the IT she would have required a fleet. Slaver's bay does not really have a fleet. Volantis does.

I remember now, that makes sense! Illyrio gets a lot of flack but its pretty hard to guess what people do next.  

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

Succeed or fail, the hit on Daenerys and Rhaego makes good sense - not as a way of protecting Robert, but as a way of provoking Drogo’s revenge.

The hit itself was amateurish in the extreme.  I think that was deliberate.

I've made a strong case that there was actually no attempt. The wineseller clearly is a guy who was set up by Varys and Illyrio. He their patsy. Illyrio or his agents gave him the job ... and the wine casks which was allegedly poisoned. In combination with the news about Robert's command to poison Dany and her unborn child as well as Drogo and Viserys it would be clear the guy giving the cask to Dany would be suspected to be a poisoner as soon as the contents of the letter reached Jorah, Dany, or Viserys.

That's all they needed to make this a success. But Illyrio and Varys would be complete morons if they sent an agent with actually poisoned wine to Vaes Dothrak. Accident do happen, so some crucial figures could have died, after all. They couldn't risk that. So they gave the guy closed wine cask and told him it contained a the Tears of Lys or some other poison easily mistaken for a natural illness.

The wineseller shows up so early after Robert made his decision that it cannot have been an 'independent contractor'. It would be a guy Varys and Illyrio set up to do this ... for their own end of convincing Drogo to invade.

About the OP:

The plan never was to have Aegon and the Golden Company come in after Viserys and the Dothraki had invaded. Viserys and the Dothraki were to join the Golden Company and they were to invade together ... presumably with Aegon in tow who would have been presented to Viserys by the Golden Company. Their condition to support him would have likely been that he acknowledges Aegon both as his trueborn nephew, Rhaegar's son by Elia, and name him his heir (until he is married and a son is born to him, perhaps). And that this ever happens Varys and Illyrio could easily prevent. If Dorne ever approached Viserys with the old Arianne-Viserys marriage pact Varys and Illyrio never knew about they would have likely pushed for Arianne marrying Aegon.

Viserys, I think, could have been pushed to remain unwed until they were actually invading so that they could use his hand as a bargaining chip during the campaign - have him offering to marry Margaery to win the Reach or him offering to marry the widowed Cersei if she were to bend the knee. Sansa would also be an offer somebody might bring up, etc.

They could also go with a reverse setting - Viserys does marry Arianne while Aegon's hand is reserved for more prestigious/powerful bride like Margaery, Cersei, or Sansa.

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I've made a strong case that there was actually no attempt. The wineseller clearly is a guy who was set up by Varys and Illyrio. He their patsy. Illyrio or his agents gave him the job ... and the wine casks which was allegedly poisoned. In combination with the news about Robert's command to poison Dany and her unborn child as well as Drogo and Viserys it would be clear the guy giving the cask to Dany would be suspected to be a poisoner as soon as the contents of the letter reached Jorah, Dany, or Viserys.

That's all they needed to make this a success. But Illyrio and Varys would be complete morons if they sent an agent with actually poisoned wine to Vaes Dothrak. Accident do happen, so some crucial figures could have died, after all. They couldn't risk that. So they gave the guy closed wine cask and told him it contained a the Tears of Lys or some other poison easily mistaken for a natural illness.

The wineseller shows up so early after Robert made his decision that it cannot have been an 'independent contractor'. It would be a guy Varys and Illyrio set up to do this ... for their own end of convincing Drogo to invade.

About the OP:

The plan never was to have Aegon and the Golden Company come in after Viserys and the Dothraki had invaded. Viserys and the Dothraki were to join the Golden Company and they were to invade together ... presumably with Aegon in tow who would have been presented to Viserys by the Golden Company. Their condition to support him would have likely been that he acknowledges Aegon both as his trueborn nephew, Rhaegar's son by Elia, and name him his heir (until he is married and a son is born to him, perhaps). And that this ever happens Varys and Illyrio could easily prevent. If Dorne ever approached Viserys with the old Arianne-Viserys marriage pact Varys and Illyrio never knew about they would have likely pushed for Arianne marrying Aegon.

Viserys, I think, could have been pushed to remain unwed until they were actually invading so that they could use his hand as a bargaining chip during the campaign - have him offering to marry Margaery to win the Reach or him offering to marry the widowed Cersei if she were to bend the knee. Sansa would also be an offer somebody might bring up, etc.

They could also go with a reverse setting - Viserys does marry Arianne while Aegon's hand is reserved for more prestigious/powerful bride like Margaery, Cersei, or Sansa.

A proper assassin always has his escape route worked out, before he strikes.

This one had none.

Even if a faceless man were unaffordable, there are other competent men and women for hire.

[astarkchoice]

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

This is an assumption that is not necessarily true. It is entirely possible that Varys actually did manage to save baby Aegon and sent him to Pentos into Illyrio's care. But something might have happened to Aegon on the voyage or in Pentos and Illyrio swapped real Aegon with his own son. Varys trusts Illyrio. He doesn't spyw on Illyrio and therefore does not know what Illyrio may have been doing behind his back. And so you end up with Varys believing Aegon is real as much as JonCon does, but Illyrio played his friend. And it may even have occurred out of necessity. Babies can die, in their sleep even.

I dont think varys cares either way

His best friend wants this kid as king, theyve invested a lot into making him.both suitable.to be a good king and pliable to their wishes (such as appointing ilyrio master of coin) so it doesnt really matter if hes real or not, as long as people believe he is!

Its the story he tells tyrion about power residing where men believe  again

[frenin]

8 hours ago, Crona said:

Well then why was the Golden Company expecting 50k dothraki? Was Illyrio planning on the Golden Company to not notice they were short a significant amount of dothraki (Strickland does not seem to be the type to agree on less). There was a deal struck between Drogo and Illyrio. For Drogo, he got an Valyrian wife for his prophecy and for Illyrio, he was promised an army. It could be that Drogo was not intending on fullfilling his end of the bargain, however that was changed when they sent the poisoner. 

Beats me, Drogo (this one sarcastically), Viserys and Illyrio only talk about gifting Viserys, up to 10k Dothraki.

I very much doubt there was a deal in which Drogo agreed to part with that sizeable part of his army to cross the sea, nor do i see Drogo as the type of man who makes promises he does not intend the fullfil.

I think there was some informal talks pf mutual assistance and that's about it and the Illyrio sold the GC a dream.

Even after sending the poisoner, in Drogo's plans he wasn't linking up with Illyrio either, nor did Illyrio made contact with him.

 

 

8 hours ago, Crona said:

That's the whole issue. Illyrio makes these deals but he underestimates them at every turn. He believes Viserys would agree to allow Aegon to be king because he views Viserys as pathetic and would jump at the chance to go home again. Not knowing how truly mad Viserys was.

He did not think Dany would be important, but she ends up hatching dragons.  Illyio learns of this, he sends ships to her and bring her back to Pentos. But instead she goes to Slaver's Bay. Now, for some reason he thought Dany would be in Volantis, but she is not. Only Aegon shows up. 

Why yes, I concur, mny point is that Illyrio's ideas are bad. And his plans are non existent.

He simply goes with the flow.

[Mithras]

When Viserys died in AGOT, the Golden Company did not exist yet. What plan? 

[StarkTullies]

1 hour ago, Mithras said:

When Viserys died in AGOT, the Golden Company did not exist yet. What plan?

Yep.  George Martin is very open about his "gardening approach", and all the peripheral new plotlines that sprung up in A Feast for Crows and A Dance With Dragons (including Young Griff, JonCon, and all the rest) obviously hadn't sprouted in his mind by AGOT... and probably not even by ASOS.

11 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

I also think this is George telling the reader that the author has changed his mind on these plans several times as well. 

George is the fat man.

I think so too.  George Martin is clearly poking a little fun at himself.

But even though it is seemingly apparent that Young Griff is a new plotline, I think George Martin will make sense of how all these seeming contradictions work together.  Not sure if he knows what that is yet, and that might be one reason why it is taking so long for these books to come out.

Even though Petyr "thrives on chaos" and Varys is the "man with a plan", supposedly, I think it is really the opposite.  Petyr creates chaos but he doesn't really need to respond to his plans going astray because so far (and perhaps in a very contrived plot-armor way), his plans always go accordingly.  Varys is the one who has to shift every five minutes.

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

A proper assassin always has his escape route worked out, before he strikes.

This one had none.

Yeah, Varys may have hired an incompetent fool he knew would botch the job... but the wine merchant himself didn't intend to fail.  And I'm not sure the plan was really that bad.  Had Jorah not had a change of heart at that very moment, what would have stopped Dany from drinking the poisoned wine?  Did Varys tell Jorah to expose the wine merchant to invoke Drogo's rage?  Unlikely.  As much as I think George Martin is genius storywriter, some of his plotlines are advanced by contrivance and luck... and I think the wine merchant's failed assassination is one of those examples.

As for why did Varys support the Targaryens while simultaneously sending an assassin after Dany?  He didn't support Dany, he supported Viserys (because Young Griff didn't exist in George's mind yet during AGOT)... and Dany's successful murder would have invoked Drogo's rage even more than her murder attempt.  I don't think Varys's actions were really contradictory.

Edited April 16, 2023 by StarkTullies

[Aline de Gavrillac]

23 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Ok this has been driving me crazy for a long time now. A ton of people think Varys/Illyrio's plan was for Dany and Viserys to cross the Narrow Sea with a Dothraki horde, cause chaos, then Aegon swoops in with the GC to save the day and become a "savior king". It's been repeated many times and a ton of people treat it as canon.

Except that "plan" is nowhere in the text! It's not even hinted at. It's a complete forum creation. That was not, is not, and never was the plan. 

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

Correct, the author has not yet revealed what the original plan was.  Theorists with many biases love to spin tales but the answer is we do not yet know.  What is known and clear is none of their original plans, whatever they may be, matter now.  The hatching of her Dragons, and her rise to become Azor Ahai, made Daenerys the most important as well as the strongest claimant to her father's Iron Throne.  Her identity as Princess Daenerys Targaryen, Rightful Ruler of Westeros, cannot be doubted.  No other claimant can prove their identity as a Targaryen with any reasonable degree of certainty.  

[SeanF]

The Mummer’s Dragon was introduced quite early into the tale, so fAegon was always there in some form, even if the tale grew in the telling.

[astarkchoice]

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He would have assumed she attacked the cities in Slaver's Bay to amass herself an army of freed slaves and Unsullied to go take the IT. That was not so flawed a supposition, since that was her plan until Meereen and she learned what was becoming of Astapor. And to take her army to the IT she would have required a fleet. Slaver's bay does not really have a fleet. Volantis does.

Yep and sometimes we forget he has pretty much bought  one of the new triarchs of volantis (a tiger) and would probably have some good buisness links to the other 2 (elephants)

[astarkchoice]

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

A proper assassin always has his escape route worked out, before he strikes.

This one had none.

Even if a faceless man were unaffordable, there are other competent men and women for hire.

To be fair if you put out word of a high price for someones murder  as robert did all.sorts of assasins will crawl out of the woodwork from cold blooded high skill professionals to morons

[BalerionTheCat]

The plan changed plenty of times. Definitely, from a very long time, fAegon was raised to be a new Aegon V. The Dothrakis were to bring chaos. They can be nothing else. Illyrio didn't care much for Dany. He didn't care for her and Viserys to die. The rest, I believe, was adjustable with the events.

 

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, SeanF said:

A proper assassin always has his escape route worked out, before he strikes.

This one had none.

Even if a faceless man were unaffordable, there are other competent men and women for hire.

The biggest clue there is sealed cask (which means the guy was given it, he didn't poison it himself) as well as the suddenness of his appearance. This early after Robert rendered his decision an independent would-be assassin (like the dwarf hunters we get later in AFfC and ADwD) would take much more time decide they want to travel to Vaes Dothrak to murder some khaleesi.

In fact, I don't think anyone would not hired for and being paid lots of money in advance would even attempt that. Formal hiring would be done by Varys, though, so the wineseller would be his man either directly or through Illyrio and his agents.

And it fits perfectly because he arrives with the same caravan as the letter informing the guys about what Robert decided to do.

Of course, an independent contractor would only learn about things at a later date and would have to make his own arrangements to get to Vaes Dothrak.

In context I'd also expect that Illyrio briefed the Pentoshi leader of the caravan to provide testimony against wineseller guy if the attempt had been gone slightly differently.

But I don't believe for a moment the wine was actually poisoned. The thing is set up quite brilliantly - in effectively every scenario the letter should have arrived long before an attempt was made ... which means they would have been wary and the wineseller would be caught immediately.

And while Dany and her unborn child may have been technically expendable - Viserys and Drogo himself were not. So the notion that Varys/Illyrio would actually allow a potential assassin to handle actual poisoned wine which could end up being drunken by not just Dany but shared by Dany, Viserys, and Drogo is actually quite insane.

8 hours ago, StarkTullies said:

Yep.  George Martin is very open about his "gardening approach", and all the peripheral new plotlines that sprung up in A Feast for Crows and A Dance With Dragons (including Young Griff, JonCon, and all the rest) obviously hadn't sprouted in his mind by AGOT... and probably not even by ASOS.

That is a flawed interpretation.

AGoT had both - Dany realizing that Illyrio was subtly mocking and quite dismissive about her brother's dreams of conquest ... but then we have the scene beneath the Red Keep with Varys were it is made clear that both men are committed to the Dothraki invasion plot. Illyrio didn't just arrange the Dany-Drogo match for Viserys to get rich ... they had an ulterior motive there. And the conversation is quite distinct. It confirms a Dothraki invasion is their goal but doesn't say they really are committed to King Viserys III Targaryen.

That was enough to wonder if they had a plan within a plan there. Also, of course, George changed things from Dany chancing on a dragon egg in the Dothraki Sea to Illyrio giving her three eggs as a wedding gift. That also gave Illyrio more agency and a potentially ulterior motive than he may have had in the first draft of AGoT.

The mummer's dragon we then get in ACoK, so Aegon is a done deal at that point. But mostly he was already part of the plan in the final writing phase of AGoT.

[Lord Varys]

18 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

This is an assumption that is not necessarily true. It is entirely possible that Varys actually did manage to save baby Aegon and sent him to Pentos into Illyrio's care. But something might have happened to Aegon on the voyage or in Pentos and Illyrio swapped real Aegon with his own son. Varys trusts Illyrio. He doesn't spyw on Illyrio and therefore does not know what Illyrio may have been doing behind his back. And so you end up with Varys believing Aegon is real as much as JonCon does, but Illyrio played his friend. And it may even have occurred out of necessity. Babies can die, in their sleep even.

That would be a very convoluted and ridiculous setting. I mean, would Illyrio not also have informed Varys that he and Serra had a child before the real Aegon died? Would Varys buy sad story about Illyrio's son dying and later not get suspicious when Illyrio dotes so much on the Aegon boy. Even Tyrion notices this.

Also, of course, Varys was actually physically there at the secret conference in Lys where he and Illyrio met with Myles Toyne and Jon Connington and presumably handed the boy over to Connington.

It is a stretch already that Illyrio and Varys could find a child that could pose for Rhaegar's son if that's what happened ... but the idea that they only did that after the real Aegon died unexpectedly is a plot for a bad soap, not for this book series.

It is already stretching things believing Illyrio's sad romance story with Serra and the idea that he would hand over the son of his beloved wife to Connington to serve as a pawn in some game of thrones which might very result in him never being able to treat his son as his son.

[Frey family reunion]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I've made a strong case that there was actually no attempt. The wineseller clearly is a guy who was set up by Varys and Illyrio. He their patsy. Illyrio or his agents gave him the job ... and the wine casks which was allegedly poisoned. In combination with the news about Robert's command to poison Dany and her unborn child as well as Drogo and Viserys it would be clear the guy giving the cask to Dany would be suspected to be a poisoner as soon as the contents of the letter reached Jorah, Dany, or Viserys.

That's all they needed to make this a success. But Illyrio and Varys would be complete morons if they sent an agent with actually poisoned wine to Vaes Dothrak. Accident do happen, so some crucial figures could have died, after all. They couldn't risk that. So they gave the guy closed wine cask and told him it contained a the Tears of Lys or some other poison easily mistaken for a natural illness.

The wineseller shows up so early after Robert made his decision that it cannot have been an 'independent contractor'. It would be a guy Varys and Illyrio set up to do this ... for their own end of convincing Drogo to invade.

 

I'm inclined to agree with you on almost all of this.  But, one thing that you're assuming is that Illyrio and Varys would be completely in lock step as to how to motivate the Drogo into invading Westeros.

It's the one "dispute" that we actually hear between Illyrio and Varys.  

Quote

“Perhaps so,” the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. “Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages. 

“If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late,” the stout man in the steel cap said.

 

Varys is clearly growing impatient with Drogo's delay in invading Westeros.  So when you say that "they couldn't risk" crucial figures dying, I'm not sure that applies to Dany.  At least not in Varys' eyes.

Varys puts Dany's life in danger when he informs Robert and the Small Council that Dany is with child.  The only possible reason to do this is to prompt Robert to try to assassinate Dany, which in turn would prompt Drogo into invading Westeros, whether out of anger for the attempt on is wife's life, or whether out of blood vengeance for successfully killing his wife and unborn son.  It seems under either scenario Varys gets what he wants.

Illyrio may have different motivations, however.  He is the one who gifted Dany with the dragon eggs, so it may make sense that he wants her to have more time with the eggs, which might be why he seems content with the current delay.

And Illyrio is the one who wrote the letter that Jorah allegedly comes across in the nick of time.  So my guess is if the wineseller was a mummer's farce to begin with, it was one only concocted by Illyrio to prompt Drogo into invading without endangering Danaerys.

[Frey family reunion]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The plan never was to have Aegon and the Golden Company come in after Viserys and the Dothraki had invaded. Viserys and the Dothraki were to join the Golden Company and they were to invade together

Tristan Rivers doesn't say that though.

Quote

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.”

It's specific that they were to meet Dany by Volantis.  It's not specific as to where they were supposed to "join" Viserys.  The plan could very well have been for them to join somewhere in Westeros.  

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm inclined to agree with you on almost all of this.  But, one thing that you're assuming is that Illyrio and Varys would be completely in lock step as to how to motivate the Drogo into invading Westeros.

It's the one "dispute" that we actually hear between Illyrio and Varys.  

Isn't the Small Council session discussing the Dany pregnancy immediately after the meeting of Varys and Illyrio? Illyrio informed Varys about the pregnancy and he uses that information to push Robert into action which, in turn, would then allow Varys and Illyrio to push Drogo via a fake assassination attempt they could pin on Robert.

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Varys is clearly growing impatient with Drogo's delay in invading Westeros.  So when you say that "they couldn't risk" crucial figures dying, I'm not sure that applies to Dany.  At least not in Varys' eyes.

Dany may have been expendable. But as we see in the chapter she wanted to share the wine with Drogo ... and likely would have also shared it with Viserys if he had still been alive. So the attempt was never something they could limit to Dany, at least not by way of a cask full of poisoned wine. To limit it to her they would have needed a (fake) assassin targeting only her.

They needed at least one adult Targaryen with Drogo and Drogo himself. As things turned out, Viserys was expendable but Viserys and Dany both were not. Drogo's invasion would have been an utter failure without an adult Targaryen pretender.

They may have tried to team up Drogo with Aegon in such a scenario, but that would have been very difficult one assumes.

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Illyrio may have different motivations, however.  He is the one who gifted Dany with the dragon eggs, so it may make sense that he wants her to have more time with the eggs, which might be why he seems content with the current delay.

Don't think there are different motivations there rather than different priorities. Varys is an expert on Westerosi politics. He knows the Realm is ripe for the taking now. If they delay too long, the succession crisis/civil war thingy that's in the air might be over when the Dothraki are ready. Illyrio knows the Dothraki and the customs better.

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

And Illyrio is the one who wrote the letter that Jorah allegedly comes across in the nick of time.  So my guess is if the wineseller was a mummer's farce to begin with, it was one only concocted by Illyrio to prompt Drogo into invading without endangering Danaerys.

We should not take Jorah at his word there. I imagine he may have gotten word from both Illyrio and Varys, both telling him about Robert's plans. But to Dany Jorah could obviously only mention Illyrio's letter.

We later hear Jorah telling us that Varys wanted him to watch Daenerys, not harm her, so I imagine he never wanted her dead.

After all, this is a very touching issue. Let us assume Dany is killed with Drogo's unborn child in her belly. Will this trigger blood vengeance on their behalf? Perhaps at first. But would Drogo see it through if his ties to Westeros and House Targaryen are completely severed by this successful assassination? It could have worked if Viserys was still around and they had gotten along ... but he wasn't and they didn't. Although it is quite interesting to consider what may have happened if Viserys had lived until the attempt. It could have been the moment where he and Dany reconciled and where Drogo started to view his brother-in-law in a different light, realizing the man's paranoia and fear was actually justified.

12 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Tristan Rivers doesn't say that though.

It's specific that they were to meet Dany by Volantis.  It's not specific as to where they were supposed to "join" Viserys.  The plan could very well have been for them to join somewhere in Westeros.  

While not impossible, I think that's stretching things a bit since the context of the conversation is how and when do they get to Westeros. Waiting for Dany means another delay and earlier they waited for Viserys and his Dothraki and they never came, either.

However, the joining there definitely means the Golden Company was not to come in after the Dothraki invasion happened and Viserys was undone somehow. They were to be a part of his effort.

The only thing that's in the air is if Aegon and Connington would have joined Viserys and the Dothraki with the Golden Company. But I think they would have. In fact, as I said I think recognizing Aegon as Rhaegar's son and Viserys' heir presumptive until he had a son would have been the price Viserys would have to pay for Golden Company support.

And if you think about it - with this double approach they could have been pretty successful. The Golden Company know Westeros and how to fight there, which would have been a great asset for the Dothraki.

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

They were planning to put King Viserys III on his family's throne.  The rest are details.  The goal was to return Westeros back to its legal owners, House Targaryen.  It could have been a beautiful outcome.  Khal Drogo and his Targaryen Khaleesi will have all of the khalasars under their rule and by default that would mean dominance over western Essos.  KVIII will rule Westeros and maybe Aegon will be his heir.  KVIII misbehaved in place where it could mean death and he lost his life in Vaes Dothrak.  Khal Drogo also died.  Daenerys brings back the dragons and is now magically single and available to marry.  They now have everything they needed to take Westeros back from the odious impostors.  Until Aegon left for Westeros, minus Queen Daenerys, the dragons, and her Unsullied troops. 

Almost as if Varys and Ilyrio were trying to rebuild Old Valyria plus the addition of Westeros. 

[csuszka1948]

I also believe people overthink this.

George came up with the idea of another Targaryen pretender in the 2nd book (ACOK), when he reworked his plan for the books (from a 4 book series to a 6 book series). His talk about 'the fat man who changes his plans every time the moon turns' is a nod to that. The talk between Illyrio and Varys happened in AGOT, which was quite different from the 2 books which followed it.

There is another example of this in AFFC:

He did not hold her kiss against her. "You would not believe half of what is happening in King's Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now...it is a good thing I thrive on chaos.

this is clearly a reference to the originally planned 5-year gap which was later scrapped.

Edited April 16, 2023 by csuszka1948