Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[csuszka1948]

Honestly, I sometimes have to wonder if the story would be finished if George didn't scrap his plans with the 5-year gap.

 

Yes, there are several problems with it (what is Tyrion and Young Griff doing? what is Euron doing? what are Stannis and the Boltons doing? what are Brienne and Jaime doing? perhaps most importantly, why isn't Jon trying to get evidence that the Others and wights exist and send it to KL?), but the reasons he scrapped it seemed very weird to me. 

He said that the Dorne plot was the main reason he abandoned the 5 year gap - but really, Doran of all people couldn't wait 5 more years with his scheming?  For instance let's assume that Quentyn is 5 years younger and you immediately find a reason to send him to Meereen 5 years later (yes, I see a few issues, namely that he would know about the marriage).

His another reason was that he spent way too many pages with exposition, describing the work of the previous Hands Cersei employed and sacked and the people she imprisoned... but then didn't he do the same with the reign of Aerys and Robert? Like, Aerys' Hands after Tywin were only mentioned in a few words (except JonCon) and the important 'players' like Doran, Varys etc. were doing basically nothing the first 14 years of Robert's reign. Cersei becoming fat and unpopular and being less and less able to control his son (who is getting 14-15 years old and is more controlled by his wife) would also make more sense if it happened in the span of 5 years. 

 

Obviously he wrote it in his way and the plotlines of Dany, Jon and Cersei AFFC and ADWD are actually very good commentaries on the nature of ruling (what he called 'Aragorn's tax policy'), the Kingsmoot and Theon's and Jaime's arcs are also beautifully written, but I really have to wonder if he didn't get stallled due to the abandonment of the five year gap.

 

Edited April 16, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Honestly, I sometimes have to wonder if the story would be finished if George didn't scrap his plans with the 5-year gap.

Nah, a lot of people keep fantasizing about this five-year-gap as if it was a great idea. It wasn't. Nothing important would have happened for most characters in those years ... and then suddenly the plot is going to start again. Which is just stupid.

And the notion that Jon and Stannis could survive five years of relative peace during which Cersei ruled relatively competently makes no sense at all.

The idea that no Westerosi would have searched out and allied with Daenerys in those five years, convincing her to leave fucking Meereen behind is also pretty loony.

It would make sense for some of young characters on a training arc - Bran, Arya, Sansa. But that's it.

[csuszka1948]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Nah, a lot of people keep fantasizing about this five-year-gap as if it was a great idea. It wasn't. Nothing important would have happened for most characters in those years ... and then suddenly the plot is going to start again. Which is just stupid.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But isn't that close to was happened at the beginning of the story?

1) Stannis and Jon Arryn have became suspicious and started searching the parentage of the royal children after 15 years, the second one got murdered and the first one (and Lysa) fled. 

2) Tywin after 15 years decided to get more involved in the politics outside Westerlands, deciding to foster Robert Arryn

3) Renly came up with a plan to replace Cersei as queen

4) Varys and Illyrio came up with a plan to make use of Viserys and Daenerys. 

5) The long summer ended and the Others showed up

 

I am not debating that there are some issues with the 5-year gap, it's incomprehensible that nothing would happen at the North (with Stannis and Jon Snow), that nobody would find out the existance of Others and wights and that nobody would give a fig about Dany. I just find it very weird that the main issues George had were seemingly the Dornish storyline and Cersei's storyline. (Re. Cersei: even the most incompetent kings didn't cause immediate chaos in Westeros in the manner Cersei did.)

Without it, the young characters and Dany's dragons cannot grow up. If you look at the excerpt of the Arya chapter from TWOW, it's obvious she behaves much older than her age. Although I admit tweaking the ages of these characters (starting out 2-3 years older, as the show did in one of their rare good moves) and applying a 'magical fast growth' to the dragons would solve these issues to an extent.

Edited April 16, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Crona]

17 hours ago, frenin said:

Beats me, Drogo (this one sarcastically), Viserys and Illyrio only talk about gifting Viserys, up to 10k Dothraki.

I very much doubt there was a deal in which Drogo agreed to part with that sizeable part of his army to cross the sea, nor do i see Drogo as the type of man who makes promises he does not intend the fullfil.

I think there was some informal talks pf mutual assistance and that's about it and the Illyrio sold the GC a dream.

Even after sending the poisoner, in Drogo's plans he wasn't linking up with Illyrio either, nor did Illyrio made contact with him.

We are just going to have to disagree here, I have just a different interpretation of things. I think George had put that line with Tristan Rivers there for the readers to understand Illyrio's movements (and his own). Maybe in AGOT, he did not have all of the plans fleshed out, but by ADWD he definitely wanted us to think this was Illyrio's and Drogo's deal. In AGOT, maybe he was toying with a different idea for Drogo but by ADWD, it appears (to me) the deal between them was 50k dothraki. 

Your interpretation is that Illyrio lied to the Golden Company and had given Dany (and 3 dragons eggs) for 10k dothraki.  If the deal was to give Viserys 10k dothraki, why didn't he give it to Viserys? And when the Golden Company realize this, they would just have to deal with it. This is also for a war that he wants to crown Aegon/Viserys.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Crona

[EggBlue]

to be honest, I pretty much doubt that either GRRM/Cheesmonger/Spider had any proper plans! Even Jon Con complains about this. 

the only thing that can make sense to me is that Illyrio and Varys are coming up with these plans when they see opportunities. They take Aegon because there's a chance he'd be useful. They reach JonCon , starting project perfect-king when Robert becomes a disappointment, and they can predict a mess in the future. They think of the Dothraki and Viserys and Daenerys when Jon Arryn, and Stannis start asking questions. They remember Dany can be useful after she has dragons. It would be very odd if they had a plan from the beginning. Including (and especially) fAegon, Blackfyre, or Aegon the Savior plan! They seem to be rich enough just to rent a famous sellsword company for a side project too! I mean, we are given zero indication that Illyrio had any reason to give three expensive dragon eggs to Dany. But he does, and neither he nor Dany see it as any financial difficulty. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by EggBlue

[Frey family reunion]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

While not impossible, I think that's stretching things a bit since the context of the conversation is how and when do they get to Westeros. Waiting for Dany means another delay and earlier they waited for Viserys and his Dothraki and they never came, either.

However, the joining there definitely means the Golden Company was not to come in after the Dothraki invasion happened and Viserys was undone somehow. They were to be a part of his effort.

The problem with bringing them together before they reach Westeros, is that you’d have Viserys who’s been told his entire life that he’s the rightful King of Westeros, being confronted with Young Griff, whose been told his entire life that he was the rightful King of Westeros.  Both with armies at their side.

It’s a recipe for disaster.  If they meet before they get to Westeros, the first battle of the war is going to take place in Essos between the two presumptive kings.  

If they don’t meet until after they arrive in Westeros, then at the very least they’d have a common enemy to unite them initially.

[Lord Varys]

35 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The problem with bringing them together before they reach Westeros, is that you’d have Viserys who’s been told his entire life that he’s the rightful King of Westeros, being confronted with Young Griff, whose been told his entire life that he was the rightful King of Westeros.  Both with armies at their side.

I don't think Aegon was told his entire life that he was the rightful king of Westeros. We actually don't know when he was told that he was allegedly Rhaegar's son - they could have told him that only when he was in his early teens, say.

Also, of course, he is still and quite accurately styled 'Prince Aegon' rather than 'King Aegon VI', so even his followers view him as a claimant and potential pretender to the throne, but not as pretender king they have already proclaimed and crowned. Aegon only starts to get delusions of grandeur when Tyrion feeds him the idea that he has a much better claim that Daenerys.

Viserys III was crowned king on Dragonstone by his mother, so his status as head of House Targaryen in exile is pretty clear. Aegon cannot challenge that. He would even have trouble doing that if his identity as Rhaegar's son was universally accepted.

35 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s a recipe for disaster.  If they meet before they get to Westeros, the first battle of the war is going to take place in Essos between the two presumptive kings.  

That danger would be there if their people wouldn't want to work together ... which the Golden Company apparently did. Tristan Rivers wouldn't have said what he said if he had felt they would have to oppose Viserys on behalf of Aegon. And without the officers of the company opposing him Aegon and Connington couldn't have messed with Viserys.

35 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

If they don’t meet until after they arrive in Westeros, then at the very least they’d have a common enemy to unite them initially.

They would have that common enemy in Westeros, too, even if they met in Essos. Just like Dany and Aegon would have common enemy if they had met at Volantis.

Sure enough - I've no clue how Illyrio and Varys thought that Aegon and Viserys would work together, how Illyrio would reveal to Viserys that he had not only supported him but also secretly hidden and raised Viserys' nephew. But the plot indicates that Varys and Illyrio thought they could manage all that. It is noteworthy that, so far, team Aegon didn't talk much about Viserys and their earlier plans. But one hopes those issues will be addressed in the future.

That their people are willing to ignore old differences and such we see in ADwD. The Golden Company have no problems working with Daenerys nor with Aegon who claims to be the son of Rhaegar Targaryen. They were involved in three Blackfyre Rebellions, backed (at least) three Blackfyre pretenders ... yet in the end what they want is not to avenge some long dead pretenders but to return to Westeros and/or win lands and titles and glory there. They are mercenaries, not idealists.

[astarkchoice]

The plan has needed adjustment but seems to have many parts

Varys position, khal drogo , ilyrios saved up wealth , viserys and danys , volantis and having one ofther  3 magistrates there paid for , the golden company and faegon and varys at kl.

 

Now later drogos kahllassar is out of the picture but danys has now 3 dragons, ser barristan comes into play as does tyrion

[John Suburbs]

On 4/15/2023 at 5:06 AM, The Fresh PtwP said:

Ok this has been driving me crazy for a long time now. A ton of people think Varys/Illyrio's plan was for Dany and Viserys to cross the Narrow Sea with a Dothraki horde, cause chaos, then Aegon swoops in with the GC to save the day and become a "savior king". It's been repeated many times and a ton of people treat it as canon.

Except that "plan" is nowhere in the text! It's not even hinted at. It's a complete forum creation. That was not, is not, and never was the plan. 

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

The real plan, for Illyrio at least, is to use the turmoil in Westeros to crash the Iron Bank. This will free Pentos from Braavosi control so Illyrio can become even richer selling slaves and otherwise dominating trade on the Narrow Sea. Varys is just a patsy in this scheme, as is Aegon. Illyrio's top co-conspirator in all of this is Littlefinger, who created the debt that will help bring down the bank and is now positioning himself to gain control of all the ports on the Westerosi side of the sea.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 4/15/2023 at 5:06 AM, The Fresh PtwP said:

Ok this has been driving me crazy for a long time now. A ton of people think Varys/Illyrio's plan was for Dany and Viserys to cross the Narrow Sea with a Dothraki horde, cause chaos, then Aegon swoops in with the GC to save the day and become a "savior king". It's been repeated many times and a ton of people treat it as canon.

Except that "plan" is nowhere in the text! It's not even hinted at. It's a complete forum creation. That was not, is not, and never was the plan. 

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

I believe the idea was rooted in the description of the way the Dothraki horde fights, primarily supplied by Jorah in one of the early Daenerys chapters in Game. 

[divica]

50 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The real plan, for Illyrio at least, is to use the turmoil in Westeros to crash the Iron Bank. This will free Pentos from Braavosi control so Illyrio can become even richer selling slaves and otherwise dominating trade on the Narrow Sea. Varys is just a patsy in this scheme, as is Aegon. Illyrio's top co-conspirator in all of this is Littlefinger, who created the debt that will help bring down the bank and is now positioning himself to gain control of all the ports on the Westerosi side of the sea.

This probably will never happen, but it would pretty cool.

It reminds me about the theories that mance rider was the one that payed the catspaw to kill bran. And then grrm crushes us with some stupid joffrey did it for reasons that barely make sense...

[Frey family reunion]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That their people are willing to ignore old differences and such we see in ADwD. The Golden Company have no problems working with Daenerys nor with Aegon who claims to be the son of Rhaegar Targaryen. They were involved in three Blackfyre Rebellions, backed (at least) three Blackfyre pretenders ... yet in the end what they want is not to avenge some long dead pretenders but to return to Westeros and/or win lands and titles and glory there. They are mercenaries, not idealists.

Yea, a lot of these plans and promises seem to be ways to motivate the Golden Company to take part in this overthrow of the current Westerosi monarchy.

We can’t assume that what the Golden Company seem to believe is necessarily what Illyrio and Varys had in mind.

The one thing we know for sure is that Varys’ plans always seemed to be getting Young Griff on the throne.  Varys has spent a lot of time and effort in helping mold Young Griff into the type of ruler that Varys would approve of.  And I think this is regardless of whether or not Young Griff is truly Rhaegar’s son.  

I think we have enough to go on that Illyrio wants Young Griff on the Iron Throne as well, as opposed to Viserys someone who Illyrio appears to have nothing but disdain for.

So I think it’s a safe bet that ultimately Varys and Illyrio had long term plans for Young Griff as the king and not Viserys.

As for Dany, by marrying her off to Khal Drogo and Illyrio being doubtful that she’d even survive the Dothraki Sea makes me think that they had no long term plans for Dany outside of her marriage to Khal Drogo, creating an “army” for Viserys.

Presumably, both Varys and Illyrio would know that the Dothraki presence would not win the hearts and minds of either the Westerosi nobility or the small folk.  They would see them as a strange, terrifying presence that were raping and pillaging their homes.  Thus whoever was seen to be in league with these barbarians would likewise be tainted in the minds of the people.  Which makes me think that they would want some separation between their golden boy, Young Griff and the Dothraki horde.  Let the people associate the Dothrakis with Viserys.  Young Griff on the other hand would be with the Golden Company, who while foreign, were at least more “western” and relatable than the Dothraki.

I don’t necessarily think that Varys and Illyrio would tell all their ultimate plans to the Golden Company leaders however.  Mainly they are trying to convince them to join in with them in this venture, and to rally under the banner of Aegon VI.  So the Golden Company would have two primary concerns (as we see through Harry Strickland).  The first is that the Golden Company does not want to commit to this alone.  So you tell them that Viserys will join with them with a Dothraki horde that will provide them with additional support.  Perhaps you even convince them that Dorne will join in with them because of their ties to Elia’s son Aegon and (if Varys and Illyrio were aware of it), Viserys marriage contract with Arianne.

The Golden Company’s next concern would be, if they did invade, what guarantees do they have that any Targaryen loyalists still in Westeros and Dorne would support them once they got there.  Perhaps they would view Young Griff as fraudulent and refuse to help an imposter.  So Illyrio and Varys assures them that their alliance with Viserys will solve that, that Viserys is someone known to the Targaryen loyalists and to Dorne, so his alliance will include an endorsement of Young Griff’s legitimacy.

Now whether or not that was ever going to be the case, who knows.  My guess is that they knew very well that Viserys might balk at this, if so, then they would probably want to keep these two groups separate until Westeros, until the Golden Company can no longer turn back.

Finally, Varys and Illyrio may have also known that ultimately, the Golden Company would have to defeat the Dothraki once the Dothraki served their purpose, to win over the hearts and minds of the people who would have been terrorized by the Dothraki horde.  At that point the Golden Company could be seen as saviors as opposed to foreign conquerors.  But this is something that i don’t think that Varys and Illyrio would want to tell the Golden Company.  It’s a hard enough sell to convince them to take on the forces of King’s Landing, but to tell them that they would probably also be fighting the Dothraki that were supposed to supplant their forces would probably cause the Golden Company to balk.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Aegon was told his entire life that he was the rightful king of Westeros. We actually don't know when he was told that he was allegedly Rhaegar's son - they could have told him that only when he was in his early teens, say.

Also, of course, he is still and quite accurately styled 'Prince Aegon' rather than 'King Aegon VI', so even his followers view him as a claimant and potential pretender to the throne, but not as pretender king they have already proclaimed and crowned. Aegon only starts to get delusions of grandeur when Tyrion feeds him the idea that he has a much better claim that Daenerys.

That’s a good point.  My thought is less what Young Griff ever believed and more about what Varys and Illyrio had in mind.  And it seems, at least according to Varys’ monologue to Kevan, that they had always planned on Young Griff being the king.  Even before Viserys death.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The real plan, for Illyrio at least, is to use the turmoil in Westeros to crash the Iron Bank. This will free Pentos from Braavosi control so Illyrio can become even richer selling slaves and otherwise dominating trade on the Narrow Sea. Varys is just a patsy in this scheme, as is Aegon. Illyrio's top co-conspirator in all of this is Littlefinger, who created the debt that will help bring down the bank and is now positioning himself to gain control of all the ports on the Westerosi side of the sea.

You posted all this theory in another thread and it was ripped to shreds. 

It cannot take down the Ib, if the ib did somehow fall other smaller banks would fill the buisness gaps, the ib collapsw wouldnt stop bravos trading or being a naval.superpower,pentos is already subtely trading slaves there isnt much more money to be made doing it openly,pentos is already doing as much naval trade as they possibly can handle,varys not knowing about ilyrios plans  is stupid , lf working with him for 0 gain is dumb and varys working agaisnt lf if they could 10x more efffective  as partners is insanely wasteful and daft !  nor can Lf Gain control of any ports  as he owns no ports nor is he even master of coin anymore!!  

Ilyrio has already said when faegon is king he will be master of coin...that and seeing his son(or someone he adores as son) as king is his payoff!

Edited April 17, 2023 by astarkchoice

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yea, a lot of these plans and promises seem to be ways to motivate the Golden Company to take part in this overthrow of the current Westerosi monarchy.

We can’t assume that what the Golden Company seem to believe is necessarily what Illyrio and Varys had in mind.

The one thing we know for sure is that Varys’ plans always seemed to be getting Young Griff on the throne.  Varys has spent a lot of time and effort in helping mold Young Griff into the type of ruler that Varys would approve of.  And I think this is regardless of whether or not Young Griff is truly Rhaegar’s son.  

I think we have enough to go on that Illyrio wants Young Griff on the Iron Throne as well, as opposed to Viserys someone who Illyrio appears to have nothing but disdain for.

So I think it’s a safe bet that ultimately Varys and Illyrio had long term plans for Young Griff as the king and not Viserys.

As for Dany, by marrying her off to Khal Drogo and Illyrio being doubtful that she’d even survive the Dothraki Sea makes me think that they had no long term plans for Dany outside of her marriage to Khal Drogo, creating an “army” for Viserys.

Presumably, both Varys and Illyrio would know that the Dothraki presence would not win the hearts and minds of either the Westerosi nobility or the small folk.  They would see them as a strange, terrifying presence that were raping and pillaging their homes.  Thus whoever was seen to be in league with these barbarians would likewise be tainted in the minds of the people.  Which makes me think that they would want some separation between their golden boy, Young Griff and the Dothraki horde.  Let the people associate the Dothrakis with Viserys.  Young Griff on the other hand would be with the Golden Company, who while foreign, were at least more “western” and relatable than the Dothraki.

I don’t necessarily think that Varys and Illyrio would tell all their ultimate plans to the Golden Company leaders however.  Mainly they are trying to convince them to join in with them in this venture, and to rally under the banner of Aegon VI.  So the Golden Company would have two primary concerns (as we see through Harry Strickland).  The first is that the Golden Company does not want to commit to this alone.  So you tell them that Viserys will join with them with a Dothraki horde that will provide them with additional support.  Perhaps you even convince them that Dorne will join in with them because of their ties to Elia’s son Aegon and (if Varys and Illyrio were aware of it), Viserys marriage contract with Arianne.

The Golden Company’s next concern would be, if they did invade, what guarantees do they have that any Targaryen loyalists still in Westeros and Dorne would support them once they got there.  Perhaps they would view Young Griff as fraudulent and refuse to help an imposter.  So Illyrio and Varys assures them that their alliance with Viserys will solve that, that Viserys is someone known to the Targaryen loyalists and to Dorne, so his alliance will include an endorsement of Young Griff’s legitimacy.

Now whether or not that was ever going to be the case, who knows.  My guess is that they knew very well that Viserys might balk at this, if so, then they would probably want to keep these two groups separate until Westeros, until the Golden Company can no longer turn back.

Finally, Varys and Illyrio may have also known that ultimately, the Golden Company would have to defeat the Dothraki once the Dothraki served their purpose, to win over the hearts and minds of the people who would have been terrorized by the Dothraki horde.  At that point the Golden Company could be seen as saviors as opposed to foreign conquerors.  But this is something that i don’t think that Varys and Illyrio would want to tell the Golden Company.  It’s a hard enough sell to convince them to take on the forces of King’s Landing, but to tell them that they would probably also be fighting the Dothraki that were supposed to supplant their forces would probably cause the Golden Company to balk.

 

I dont think they everr really expected the dothraki to land. Its just to make the threat of viserys seem real to both westeros and the golden company 

The real plan seems.to have varys causing a war somehow between the anti targ alliance(they discuss this and are overheard by arya how their plans are moving faster than expected ). The threat of viserys with a dothraki horde (and later a grieving angry khal) allows varys to hear who is pro targ and anti targ and where possible  eliminate any highly effective anti targ lords at kings landing (as poor kevan was) 

If the dothraki come thats just a bonus but the real meat is faegon with volantis(one of their  3 leaders we hear  is bought by ilyrio) backed by the golden company (who exist as a means  to bring  exiled westerosi lords  exiles back) and of course dorne and possibly the reach vs the robert rebellion  alliance badly weakened by internal war!!

Add in the fact ilyrio has 3 ships filled with very  stuffed with precious materials waiting  for dany (she is told this fortune could buy her 1000 unsullied and her  pricess gold and pearl crown 100)  hints this stuff could all have bought another sellsword company or 3

 

Besides i dont think  from drogo's pov he ever intended to put his men under a worm like viserys 50k or 10k to cross the sea they feared  BUT id say he's a man of his word and would probably have used his vast khalassar to sweep villages for miles for slaves and gotten huge tributes from.cities and in no time  had enough goods (ie sell the slaves) to buy viserys 10-20k sellswords to go home with!!

Edited April 17, 2023 by astarkchoice

[CassDarry]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In fact, as I said I think recognizing Aegon as Rhaegar's son and Viserys' heir presumptive until he had a son would have been the price Viserys would have to pay for Golden Company support.

So is Viserys definitely in front of Aegon for the throne?

[astarkchoice]

18 minutes ago, CassDarry said:

So is Viserys definitely in front of Aegon for the throne?

Yes the general feeling is hes a fake targ but a real.blackfyre

[Alester Florent]

15 minutes ago, CassDarry said:

So is Viserys definitely in front of Aegon for the throne?

It's debatable. By all the normal rules of succession, Aegon would come first, but Aerys named Viserys his heir out of spite when he was still on the throne. So they both have a claim over the other.

More importantly, because Aegon's survival has been kept secret all this time, Viserys was well-established as the Targaryen "king across the water" and his legitimacy was unquestioned. So as figurehead for a Targaryen restoration movement Viserys may have been more attractive, and then that legitimacy would rub off on Aegon if Viserys recognised him as his nephew and heir. Then at a later date when Viserys's purpose was served they can dispose of him and put Aegon, the king they really want, on the throne.

[CassDarry]

31 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

It's debatable. By all the normal rules of succession, Aegon would come first, but Aerys named Viserys his heir out of spite when he was still on the throne. So they both have a claim over the other.

More importantly, because Aegon's survival has been kept secret all this time, Viserys was well-established as the Targaryen "king across the water" and his legitimacy was unquestioned. So as figurehead for a Targaryen restoration movement Viserys may have been more attractive, and then that legitimacy would rub off on Aegon if Viserys recognised him as his nephew and heir. Then at a later date when Viserys's purpose was served they can dispose of him and put Aegon, the king they really want, on the throne.

I could never get them to agree to who has the better claim due to what you said, but I couldn't remember if It was public knowledge/accepted Aerys named Viserys heir or was viserys just crowned after Aerys and Aegon died.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

We can’t assume that what the Golden Company seem to believe is necessarily what Illyrio and Varys had in mind.

That certainly is true. I'd think they would be totally naive, though, if they actually believed associating themselves with a Dothraki horde would make them and their cause popular in Westeros. Which is why I don't think they did.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The one thing we know for sure is that Varys’ plans always seemed to be getting Young Griff on the throne.  Varys has spent a lot of time and effort in helping mold Young Griff into the type of ruler that Varys would approve of.  And I think this is regardless of whether or not Young Griff is truly Rhaegar’s son.  

I think we have enough to go on that Illyrio wants Young Griff on the Iron Throne as well, as opposed to Viserys someone who Illyrio appears to have nothing but disdain for.

So I think it’s a safe bet that ultimately Varys and Illyrio had long term plans for Young Griff as the king and not Viserys.

That goes without saying, but it still seems as if they wanted to use Viserys and his claim and the legitimacy that he could transfer to Aegon if he acknowledged him as his nephew for their goal. How little they cared for Viserys, though, is clear from the fact that, apparently, they never told him about Aegon. We cannot completely rule out that he might have been told since we don't have his POV ... and no idea how and why he and Dany came to live with Illyrio, etc. Viserys strikes one not exactly very smart but we can also not assume he told everything about his plans or everything he knew to Daenerys.

Dany has no clue, it seems, how exactly her brother came to arrange her marriage to Drogo. It could be that Illyrio promised Viserys the Golden Company would join him if he could raise an army of his own, leading to the Dothraki deal.

In the end one imagines that Varys and Illyrio would have done away with Viserys when the war was (about to be) won, so that Aegon could ascend the Iron Throne in his stead. And they would have kept him of the crueler parts of the campaign, building him up as a golden boy the people could love.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for Dany, by marrying her off to Khal Drogo and Illyrio being doubtful that she’d even survive the Dothraki Sea makes me think that they had no long term plans for Dany outside of her marriage to Khal Drogo, creating an “army” for Viserys.

That is one way to see it ... the gift of the dragon eggs is another. Illyrio tells Tyrion he didn't believe Dany would survive her marriage, etc. ... but he also doesn't tell him about Aegon, doesn't tell him that he gave Dany the dragon eggs. So there can be another layer there, something about prophecy and magic and stuff.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Presumably, both Varys and Illyrio would know that the Dothraki presence would not win the hearts and minds of either the Westerosi nobility or the small folk.  They would see them as a strange, terrifying presence that were raping and pillaging their homes.  Thus whoever was seen to be in league with these barbarians would likewise be tainted in the minds of the people.  Which makes me think that they would want some separation between their golden boy, Young Griff and the Dothraki horde.  Let the people associate the Dothrakis with Viserys.  Young Griff on the other hand would be with the Golden Company, who while foreign, were at least more “western” and relatable than the Dothraki.

While that is a view one can have, I'm not sure it would be actually the case. I mean, the plan was to have a Targaryen-led invasion at a time Westeros itself was caught up in a succession and/or civil war, at a time when the Iron Throne would be incapable to raise a large army to throw the Dothraki and the Golden Company back into the sea.

And what people - especially in relation to Dany's eventual conquest - usually seem to overlook or ignore is that KL is located at the eastern coast of Westeros. All Viserys and Daenerys need to do is to take the capital and mount the Iron Throne. Since they are Targaryens that might be enough to seal the deal without much further bloodshed. Most lords would then either bend the knee or decide to remain neutral unless there was a very large army led by a rival pretender already marching against the capital.

I mean, you have to ask yourself honestly how much symbolic capital Stannis or Renly or Joffrey would have left if they were to try to oust a Targaryen king from KL. Not that much.

I don't think there would have been a scenario where the Dothraki would pillage and raid in vast portions of the country.

Also, in context, the original deal between Viserys/Illyrio and Drogo were about 10,000 Dothraki - enough so that Viserys looks powerful and in charge of a force of his own, but not enough that he would not want Targaryen loyalists in Westeros to flock to his banner. They would be encouraged by the fact that their king was bringing an army of his own, meaning he wasn't expecting them to fight his war all by themselves. The Golden Company would have also helped with that, of course.

When Drogo decides to take his entire khalasar to Westeros the Dothraki numbers are much increased. That certainly could pose a problem. Even more so since he clearly wanted to punish the Westerosi for their transgressions.

If Viserys had still been around at the time he would not have wanted to seat his son on the Iron Throne - that is a decision that's made because Rhaego would be the last male descendant of Aerys II.

George has confirmed Varys and Illyrio had no idea about the Viserys-Arianne marriage pact, so they would have counted on Dorne declaring for Viserys/Aegon because it was in their best interest in general - and because Aegon was the son of Elia.

Don't think the Dothraki would have to be defeated by the Golden Company or anyone, at least not in a scenario where they were fighting more on Viserys' behalf - with Drogo perhaps not even accompanying them. If we talk about Drogo being there and doing everything for his infant son things would be very different.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That’s a good point.  My thought is less what Young Griff ever believed and more about what Varys and Illyrio had in mind.  And it seems, at least according to Varys’ monologue to Kevan, that they had always planned on Young Griff being the king.  Even before Viserys death.

Yes, that's very much clear and not in doubt. How Aegon would become king, though, is unclear. It seems they were quite happy to make him king as successor of Viserys III.

2 hours ago, CassDarry said:

So is Viserys definitely in front of Aegon for the throne?

Of course. He is a proclaimed and crowned king in exile, and his identity as the last surviving son of Aerys II is not questioned. In this context it does matter if you talk about a mere claimant to a throne, somebody who could push a claim if he were to declare himself ... and a guy who has already done that, who was crowned as a rival pretender to Robert Baratheon by his own mother and with her crown back shortly after the Sack of KL.

Aegon could put forth his own claim in challenge to that of Viserys ... but not only has nobody believe the outlandish story of his secret rescue but he would have also have to argue against Aerys II's decision to name Viserys his new heir after Rhaegar's death ... and not Aegon himself. If you pretend to be a Targaryen, if you want to represent the house, and throw your head in the ring to avenge the wrongs the rebels did to them ... then you look kind of silly if want to steal the crown your uncle is already wearing - by the decree of the late king and the decision of the late queen.

Now Aegon has the advantage of being the only Targaryen pretender in Westeros. He beat Dany to it. That is his advantage now. But the dragons and Dany being Viserys' confirmed sister certainly could undermine his cause. Of course, if Aegon sits the throne and many lords have sworn their allegiance to King Aegon VI Targaryen then they might feel honor-bound to uphold such vows against Daenerys. We have to wait and see.

2 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

It's debatable. By all the normal rules of succession, Aegon would come first, but Aerys named Viserys his heir out of spite when he was still on the throne. So they both have a claim over the other.

Not sure if that was out of spite. It is well within the precedents to go with a younger son if a grandchild is but an infant or a toddler or considered to be too inexperienced. We have that with Jaehaerys succeeding instead of Aerea, Baelon over Rhaenys, Viserys over Laenor, perhaps Maekar over Daenora, and Aegon V over Vaella and Maegor.

It may be that Aerys' real or imagined issues with the Dornish played into that, but it is no unusual or even controversial decision - especially in such a situation where the dynasty's fate hangs by a thread you would want to have an heir who is no baby.

2 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

More importantly, because Aegon's survival has been kept secret all this time, Viserys was well-established as the Targaryen "king across the water" and his legitimacy was unquestioned. So as figurehead for a Targaryen restoration movement Viserys may have been more attractive, and then that legitimacy would rub off on Aegon if Viserys recognised him as his nephew and heir. Then at a later date when Viserys's purpose was served they can dispose of him and put Aegon, the king they really want, on the throne.

Not just that, but Viserys III has actually been proclaimed and crowned. Aegon hasn't. Viserys can show up and expect people to style and treat him as king ... while Aegon's own people still view him as a mere prince. Aegon needs to have enough followers to be proclaimed and crowned king, and chances are very low that this could have worked in a scenario where Viserys was still around. Regardless of Viserys qualities as a man and leader - he was the Mad King's only surviving son. Aegon is a boy who claims to be a dead prince. If Viserys were to say that the guy isn't his nephew he would be done for.

The same if Dany did that had they met at Volantis. Now he has a shot at the kingship in his own right if he can take KL, hold it, and force or convince the people and many lords to swear fealty to him as their king. Then he would have (some) authority in his own right. But as potential pretender in a setting where Viserys and Dany are close by he would have little to no chance if he was not part of their ticket, so to speak.