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Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"


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13 hours ago, CassDarry said:

I'm not sure if he specifically states the whole khalasars opinion.

No, just the ones who have been in contact with Dothraki or who have heard the blood riders disparaging him... which is every blood rider.

Come on now lol.

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21 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

-Regardless of how much Joffrey sucks, someone trying to kill Bran after he saw Jaime and Cersei screwing and it turns out to be completely unrelated to that and is actually Joffrey trying to impress his dad because of an offhand comment (which iirc isn’t even mentioned until ASOS) is the definition of contrived. Not GRRM’s finest piece of writing IMO, overly focused on subverting expectations.

LF personally lost the knife the Robert, the idea that he’d forget about losing a Valyrian Steel knife to the king rather than Tyrion mere months after it happened is not believable. And it’s not just Varys he needs to worry about, anyone who Catelyn talks to about it is a risk if they know the truth.

This actually gets to the big problem with his lie - he has absolutely no need to lie to accomplish this goal. Telling Catelyn that it’s Roberts knife accomplishes the same goal since she’ll doubtlessly conclude the Lannisters could have gotten their hands on it, there’s no reason to lie to specifically frame Tyrion except for the meta reason of raising the tension when Cat runs into him on the road, which LF obviously couldn’t have predicted.

-ok toeach hisown

-unless he gambles.a.lot which sems likely8

-it does raise the temp whichis what he wants

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23 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Regardless of how much Joffrey sucks, someone trying to kill Bran after he saw Jaime and Cersei screwing and it turns out to be completely unrelated to that and is actually Joffrey trying to impress his dad because of an offhand comment (which iirc isn’t even mentioned until ASOS) is the definition of contrived. Not GRRM’s finest piece of writing IMO, overly focused on subverting expectations.

LF personally lost the knife the Robert, the idea that he’d forget about losing a Valyrian Steel knife to the king rather than Tyrion mere months after it happened is not believable. And it’s not just Varys he needs to worry about, anyone who Catelyn talks to about it is a risk if they know the truth.

This actually gets to the big problem with his lie - he has absolutely no need to lie to accomplish this goal. Telling Catelyn that it’s Roberts knife accomplishes the same goal since she’ll doubtlessly conclude the Lannisters could have gotten their hands on it, there’s no reason to lie to specifically frame Tyrion except for the meta reason of raising the tension when Cat runs into him on the road, which LF obviously couldn’t have predicted.

-ok wel disagree rhere i actualy felt it was a nice little distraction

-why not?he clearly gambles all the time and he adds to his cover by correctly telling them the knife  still doesnt necessarily connect to house lannister specificaly and to toss away the knife  and forget it

-he wants to double up on  the letter he made lysa send  and now this assaination out of the blue..sooner war starts the sooner he can begin oppertunistic climbing the ladder. 

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9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-why not?he clearly gambles all the time and he adds to his cover by correctly telling them the knife  still doesnt necessarily connect to house lannister specificaly and to toss away the knife  and forget it

I’m not sure what the “why not” is in response to but I explained why it’s a pointless gamble - there’s no need to lie to implicate Tyrion when the truth will already make Catelyn suspicious of the Lannisters.

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1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I’m not sure what the “why not” is in response to but I explained why it’s a pointless gamble - there’s no need to lie to implicate Tyrion when the truth will already make Catelyn suspicious of the Lannisters.

He doent know who attempted to kill bran but by saying tyrion he ensures the starks def blame the lannisters (remeber from his pov they are dumb thus need extra breadcrumbs to get where hes leading them) AND it gets him in further with the starks..not only does he seem to be a great source of info he actualy gives sage advice after saying ownership of the knife doesnt necessarily  mean he ordered the hit  and to toss it away and forget this.

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7 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

He doent know who attempted to kill bran but by saying tyrion he ensures the starks def blame the lannisters (remeber from his pov they are dumb thus need extra breadcrumbs to get where hes leading them) AND it gets him in further with the starks..not only does he seem to be a great source of info he actualy gives sage advice after saying ownership of the knife doesnt necessarily  mean he ordered the hit  and to toss it away and forget this.

Cat is not going to think Robert had Bran killed and if for some reason she doesn’t jump to the Lannisters it’s not hard to nudge her in that direction. The lie is completely pointless except from the meta purpose of setting up the Cat-Tyrion run-in at the inn, which LF obviously couldn’t have known about. That’s what makes it contrived.


Martin’s a great writer but he isn’t flawless and this plotline is one example where the demands of the plot control the character actions rather than the characters controlling the plot. 

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2 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Cat is not going to think Robert had Bran killed and if for some reason she doesn’t jump to the Lannisters it’s not hard to nudge her in that direction. The lie is completely pointless except from the meta purpose of setting up the Cat-Tyrion run-in at the inn, which LF obviously couldn’t have known about. That’s what makes it contrived.


Martin’s a great writer but he isn’t flawless and this plotline is one example where the demands of the plot control the character actions rather than the characters controlling the plot. 

Lf sends them the letter saying lannisters killed jon arryn beware etc w

Now we can assume lfs orginal plan was bring ned to kl and stir the slowly pot about some lannister vs jon arryn plot but then bran is almost killed...oppertunity has arisen for something new

He says this knife was tyrions adding on the circumstancial anti lannsiter evidence which helps ingrate him as a trusted scource of info and sage advice (as he also says it doesnt necessarily prove the lannsiters did it and to toss the knife away thus if it comes back on him.he can both pretend he mixed it up with other.bets and he was openly against acting on it)

As for cat and tyrion it is a bit of a huge coincidence.timing wise  yess (they do both know the inn thus would go there so the route makes sense  )but plotwise its likely that it was actualy   ned that  lf is hoping will act rashly on this 'insider tip on' ....that the hand of the king will demand tywin lanisters son stand trial  thus raising temp at KL between stark and lannister (and possibly getting ned killed thus possibly opening the door to cat for him)

Edited by astarkchoice
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On 5/13/2023 at 3:57 PM, CassDarry said:

Maybe,

But would viserys be relieved if young griff came along said "I'm aegon, I'll be king"  

For sure not. But if Illyrio and Varys could have had Viserys's endorsement, that would have gone a long way. He would have been useful to secure an alliance through marriage too. It would have been an offer Viserys could not refuse, support Aegon or swim with the fishes in the Bay of Pentos. 

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12 hours ago, CassDarry said:

-Does griff and the gc know varys and illyrio are working together?

-Do jorah and Barristan not know varys and illyrio are working together?

-dont think so , ilyrio promises them 50k screamers  then later  that danys will be in pentos with the 3 dragons awaiting them. It always seems hes promising them an overwhelming force backing them over 'my eunch pal will sow war in westeros and kill anyone competent"

-we dont know but jorah and barristan worked together for a long time it seems unlikely they wouldnt have discussed how they got there. Jorah was working for varys but got the letter warning of assasins from ilyrio so id say he at least knows. Barristan fled the capital and ends up in ilyrios service...seems unlikely thats a coincidence and probably facilitated through varys.

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19 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Cat is not going to think Robert had Bran killed and if for some reason she doesn’t jump to the Lannisters it’s not hard to nudge her in that direction. The lie is completely pointless except from the meta purpose of setting up the Cat-Tyrion run-in at the inn, which LF obviously couldn’t have known about. That’s what makes it contrived.


Martin’s a great writer but he isn’t flawless and this plotline is one example where the demands of the plot control the character actions rather than the characters controlling the plot. 

Probably not as strongly, but tend to agree here. Further, it’s maintained by Tyrion inexplicably not calling LF on it despite multiple opportunities and his father’s explicit empowerment to deal with LF/Varys as he sees fit. It’s a weaker point in the story, but no story this big will be without any weaker points. 

Edited by James Arryn
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I think another way of looking at is as emblematic. Ie, does it fit with LF’s character to do this kind of thing, to strike from afar for no apparent reason? Yes. Does it illustrate Joff’s character and weird family dynamic to murder a child on a kind of Freudian whim? Yes. These actions are accurate and powerful representations of their character.
 

I think to a degree, beyond a general outline of bigger or in his mind more essential plot points, that’s where GRRM starts, that’s the soil for his garden, it’s character driven in the extreme and has a lot to do with character ~ symbolism and the plot is then tailored, or…what’s the gardening term? Pruned?…to fit. And he gets the vast majority of the fits exactly right, but I think that’s a secondary part of the process for him. 

Edited by James Arryn
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3 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Probably not as strongly, but tend to agree here. Further, it’s maintained by Tyrion inexplicably not calling LF on it despite multiple opportunities and his father’s explicit empowerment to deal with LF/Varys as he sees fit. It’s a weaker point in the story, but no story this big will be without any weaker points. 

Dunno im sorta torn on tyrion not getting at lf right away when he arrives , now he knows lf lies about  him landed him in trouble.... but  its just a remark about a knifes ownership  its technicaly cat and lysa he has beef with over his capture, lf hasnt actualy accused him of assasination etc thats  and all that follows is on the tully girls! 

Plus We see that on arrival he has the power to hang the lot of them but hes sorta kept busy between falling in love (which requires a lot of work to keep secret) wrestling control  of kl from cersei and joff (which occupies a lot of his time and effort despite cersei knowing an enemy army is approaching )   , prepping for renly/stannis, arranging an attempted breakout for his brother, keeping sansa safe, a riot in kl , allying with dorne etc

Theres also the fact that right off the bat he sorta needs LF  to squeeze out every last penny as the city is under  tyrell blockade , still minus like 6 million  gold dragons and theres the fact varys demonstrates (by appearing with shae) that while tyrion has the power to kill them they arent without means to strike back.....tyrion isnt some dumb lord who thinks lf is helpless just because of his station/lands, as he says he knows how the game is played

Overall it sorta fits that given how busy he is that it makes sense hed put getting lf back on the long term revenge list,..a lannsiter always pays his debts yes but this one isnt urgent !!! cersei  and joffery etc clearly move top of that revenge  list and after blackwater hes minus means to strike at baelish for the meantime anyway

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Ok keeping this thread going what are peoples thoughts on

- where varys little birds and mice go to when too old/big to crawl around kl secret spaces?

-lf mentions he has varys balls if he had any in his pocket...empty bragging to ned or had he some final solution brewing for his longtime rival? If so what?

-varys and terek lannsiter? Did he abduct him and why?

-if danys stayed in pentos with her 3 dragons from quarth instead of going to the unsullied megastore what then?

-facless men are likely to know about this pair will they act? What would the fire priests think of another potentialy fire resistant dragon loving targ existing?

 

 

Edited by astarkchoice
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17 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Dunno im sorta torn on tyrion not getting at lf right away when he arrives , now he knows lf lies about  him landed him in trouble.... but  its just a remark about a knifes ownership  its technicaly cat and lysa he has beef with over his capture, lf hasnt actualy accused him of assasination etc thats  and all that follows is on the tully girls! 

Plus We see that on arrival he has the power to hang the lot of them but hes sorta kept busy between falling in love (which requires a lot of work to keep secret) wrestling control  of kl from cersei and joff (which occupies a lot of his time and effort despite cersei knowing an enemy army is approaching )   , prepping for renly/stannis, arranging an attempted breakout for his brother, keeping sansa safe, a riot in kl , allying with dorne etc

Theres also the fact that right off the bat he sorta needs LF  to squeeze out every last penny as the city is under  tyrell blockade , still minus like 6 million  gold dragons and theres the fact varys demonstrates (by appearing with shae) that while tyrion has the power to kill them they arent without means to strike back.....tyrion isnt some dumb lord who thinks lf is helpless just because of his station/lands, as he says he knows how the game is played

Overall it sorta fits that given how busy he is that it makes sense hed put getting lf back on the long term revenge list,..a lannsiter always pays his debts yes but this one isnt urgent !!! cersei  and joffery etc clearly move top of that revenge  list and after blackwater hes minus means to strike at baelish for the meantime anyway

The being too busy, maybe. But we’re in his head and he doesn’t even really think about it.

But about it just being a comment…I’m trying to remember that book LF is not the Obvious Schemer that show LF was, instead is everyone’s slightly annoying but useful friend. Still, I think Tyrion is clear about seriously mistrusting him, though it’s usually throw away thoughts that show this. But imo the way we see Tyrion think generally, he would not think it an innocent comment, and he definitely keeps score. He takes the time to commit to memory every single man who responds to Cat’s call at the crossroads for revenge, and he seems to take it whet he can get it; he crushes the bard’s hand in the middle of a life and death struggle, for example. And these are mostly random people just doing their duty.
 

But more to the point, he openly thinks about it, repeatedly. With LF, who is obviously more of a danger to him once he gets to KL, we get almost nothing. It’s out of character, imo. Not saying he should have necessarily acted yet, though imo that would more true to form, but we should definitely see him think about it…he knows LF made this ‘comment’ about a murder weapon after the attempted murder, to the victim’s mother. Whose subsequent mistreatment of him is directly and almost exclusively based on that, well, lie. That’s another thing, it’s not just a comment, it’s a lie, and Tyrion knows that. I’d say there’s not much chance normal Tyrion lets that go as innocent chatter, and his father gives him specific permission to spike LF’s head. Yet all he ever seems to think about LF and the knife is to wonder why. Odd. 

Edited by James Arryn
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28 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

But about it just being a comment…I’m trying to remember that book LF is not the Obvious Schemer that show LF was, instead is everyone’s slightly annoying but useful friend.

He is in book one, Martin obviously and brazenly retcons him later.

Quote

"Don't play the fool. Stannis and Renly are one thing, and Eddard Stark is quite another. Robert will listen to Stark. Damn them both. I should have insisted that he name you, but I was certain Stark would refuse him."
"We ought to count ourselves fortunate," the man said. "The king might as easily have named one of his brothers, or even Littlefinger, gods help us. Give me honorable enemies rather than ambitious ones, and I'll sleep more easily by night."
They were talking about Father, Bran realized. He wanted to hear more. A few more feet … but they would see him if he swung out in front of the window.  
AGOT BRAN II

 

Quote

And he had done his own part here at Riverrun without actually ever taking up arms against the Starks or Tullys. Once he found the Blackfish, he would be free to return to King's Landing, where he belonged. My place is with my king. With my son. Would Tommen want to know that? The truth could cost the boy his throne. Would you sooner have a father or a chair, lad? Jaime wished he knew the answer. He does like stamping papers with his seal. The boy might not even believe him, to be sure. Cersei would say it was a lie. My sweet sister, the deceiver. He would need to find some way to winkle Tommen from her clutches before the boy became another Joffrey. And whilst at that, he should find the lad a new small council too. If Cersei can be put aside, Ser Kevan may agree to serve as Tommen's Hand. And if not, well, the Seven Kingdoms did not lack for able men. Forley Prester would make a good choice, or Roland Crakehall. If someone other than a westerman was needed to appease the Tyrells, there was always Mathis Rowan . . . or even Petyr Baelish. Littlefinger was as amiable as he was clever, but too lowborn to threaten any of the great lords, with no swords of his own. The perfect Hand.  AFFC JAIME VII

Littlefinger is one of the if not the most protected character yet, even his foes completely forget he is dangerous.

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34 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

The being too busy, maybe. But we’re in his head and he doesn’t even really think about it.

But about it just being a comment…I’m trying to remember that book LF is not the Obvious Schemer that show LF was, instead is everyone’s slightly annoying but useful friend. Still, I think Tyrion is clear about seriously mistrusting him, though it’s usually throw away thoughts that show this. But imo the way we see Tyrion think generally, he would not think it an innocent comment, and he definitely keeps score. He takes the time to commit to memory every single man who responds to Cat’s call at the crossroads for revenge, and he seems to take it whet he can get it; he crushes the bard’s hand in the middle of a life and death struggle, for example. And these are mostly random people just doing their duty.
 

But more to the point, he openly thinks about it, repeatedly. With LF, who is obviously more of a danger to him once he gets to KL, we get almost nothing. It’s out of character, imo. Not saying he should have necessarily acted yet, though imo that would more true to form, but we should definitely see him think about it…he knows LF made this ‘comment’ about a murder weapon after the attempted murder, to the victim’s mother. Whose subsequent mistreatment of him is directly and almost exclusively based on that, well, lie. That’s another thing, it’s not just a comment, it’s a lie, and Tyrion knows that. I’d say there’s not much chance normal Tyrion lets that go as innocent chatter, and his father gives him specific permission to spike LF’s head. Yet all he ever seems to think about LF and the knife is to wonder why. Odd. 

Id say he means to get revenge but obviously shit keeps comming up wayyy more important plus hes too much of a thinker to go ahead and strike at someone without both  making sure theres no blowback for him and most importantly why LF did it...thats the  other major thing   hes smart ...cersei or joff would have just killed lf but tyrion being an intellectual will want to know why lf did what he did...its a mental puzzle for him to figure out then hit Lf with a prefect revenge.

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19 minutes ago, frenin said:

He is in book one, Martin obviously and brazenly retcons him later.

 

Littlefinger is one of the if not the most protected character yet, even his foes completely forget he is dangerous.

Yeah id say its due to his power not being of any kind most  the lords are mentaly conditioned to fully recognise.

He comes from no great house with any kind of military forces , no marriage or family alliances to call on, wealthy but seemingly not  outrageously  so  ,  is physicaly unimposing and not a  skilled weapons expert to make up for that.

He has a known spy network but seemingly no power to strike anyone important

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3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah id say its due to his power not being of any kind most  the lords are mentaly conditioned to fully recognise.

He comes from no great house with any kind of military forces , no marriage or family alliances to call on, wealthy but seemingly not  outrageously  so  ,  is physicaly unimposing and not a  skilled weapons expert to make up for that.

He has a known spy network but seemingly no power to strike anyone important

Except that Jaime fully recognizes and acknowledges the threat he poses in AGOT, he somehow has forgotten about it in AFFC.

Eddard also never liked him but definitely came to distrust him after the Jaime incident, the only reason he had an edge was Cat.

There is an obvious disconnect in how the characters see LF in AGOT and how they see him afterwards.

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12 minutes ago, frenin said:

Except that Jaime fully recognizes and acknowledges the threat he poses in AGOT, he somehow has forgotten about it in AFFC.

Eddard also never liked him but definitely came to distrust him after the Jaime incident, the only reason he had an edge was Cat.

There is an obvious disconnect in how the characters see LF in AGOT and how they see him afterwards.

Yeah the fun part is we know hes wayy more secure than he appears . He has luthor brune and the kettlebacks as his personal mercs as well as the guys they employ for tyion and cersei. He runs brothels +taverns   so has bound to have pimps/enforcers and access to  the sort of hedge knights and cuthroats that vist them. Hes helped facilitate bribery of all the goldcloaks , he knows where all the crowns finances are invested and which houses are down on their luck to reach out to ( like houses corbray,kettleback and hollard)  and has his own army of spies

......and clearly had a ship to go to the vale waiting at all times should shit hit the fan!!!

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