Jump to content

Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"


The Fresh PtwP
 Share

Recommended Posts

28 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah the fun part is we know hes wayy more secure than he appears . He has luthor brune and the kettlebacks as his personal mercs as well as the guys they employ for tyion and cersei. He runs brothels +taverns   so has bound to have pimps/enforcers and access to  the sort of hedge knights and cuthroats that vist them. Hes helped facilitate bribery of all the goldcloaks , he knows where all the crowns finances are invested and which houses are down on their luck to reach out to ( like houses corbray,kettleback and hollard)  and has his own army of spies

......and clearly had a ship to go to the vale waiting at all times should shit hit the fan!!!

Eh, I very much doubt it'd help him if a Lord or an heir really wanted to kill him.

If Tyrion say ordered Bywater or any other Red Cloak to bring him Petyr, it's gg.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, frenin said:

Eh, I very much doubt it'd help him if a Lord or an heir really wanted to kill him.

If Tyrion say ordered Bywater or any other Red Cloak to bring him Petyr, it's gg.

 

Id doubt hed be soo cocky if he didnt have a few weasly escape plans sorted should that happen.

He does have eyes around kl and those few  mercs  he has around seem skilled  so  he may have a chance to slip away!!

not to mention theyd have to go to his brothels where the snake probably has backdoors and/or muscle ready! If theres enough sellswords/cutthroats/hedge knights there  in any particular tavern/brothel he could even try simply saying " a gold dragon to any man who kills the guard/guards outside trying to take me" and there would be no shortage of volunteers! 

 

It would be absolutely golden though if one of his planned  escape routes was bribing that 'ruegen' undergaoler of the darkest cells level :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Id doubt hed be soo cocky if he didnt have a few weasly escape plans sorted should that happen.

He's cocky because he knows the Lannisters desperately need him and thus it's pretty unlikely they kill him with half the country up in arms against them and him being their only link to ever regaining the allegiance of the Vale.

 

22 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

not to mention theyd have to go to his brothels where the snake probably has backdoors and/or muscle ready! If theres enough sellswords/cutthroats/hedge knights there  in any particular tavern/brothel he could even try simply saying " a gold dragon to any man who kills the guard/guards outside trying to take me" and there would be no shortage of volunteers! 

Do you truly think that if the Throne actually calls for Petyr's head.. there would be people within the city willing to take that bet?

Not even mercs are that stupid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

- where varys little birds and mice go to when too old/big to crawl around kl secret spaces?

I think Salla has been in league with Illyrio and Varys the whole time...

"A certain Lysene pirate once told me that a good smuggler stays out of sight," Davos replied carefully. "Black sails, muffled oars, and a crew that knows how to hold their tongues."
The Lyseni laughed. "A crew with no tongues is even better. Big strong mutes who cannot read or write." But then he grew more somber. "But I am glad to know that someone watches your back, old friend. Will the king give the boy to the red priestess, do you think? One little dragon could end this great big war."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, frenin said:

-He's cocky because he knows the Lannisters desperately need him and thus it's pretty unlikely they kill him with half the country up in arms against them and him being their only link to ever regaining the allegiance of the Vale.

 

-Do you truly think that if the Throne actually calls for Petyr's head.. there would be people within the city willing to take that bet?

Not even mercs are that stupid.

 

-He cocky long before that man hes openly mocking renly at the tourney  ! He also clearly  thinks of himself as smarter than everyone else which adds to it, that whatever occurs hel outthink them

-if the throne openly calls for his head id say hed flee , goldcloaks would scour the city for him BUT that said we know they're corrupt as hell so if the adverage  officer finds him maybe he didnt see what he thought he saw and walks away with a bag of coins and some smaller ones for his men :)          or hell its flea bottom maybe if the officer is honest then a few  goldcloaks just  have to go missing and later LF is nowhere to be found! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

He cocky long before that man hes openly mocking renly at the tourney 

Well yes, that's just banter and he has little reason to think anyone is after him.

 

14 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

He also clearly  thinks of himself as smarter than everyone else which adds to it, that whatever occurs hel outthink them

Doesn't mean he can, just that he's confident that he's untouchable.

Case in point, if Tyrion snapped and sent Shagga and pals after him, it's gg but since both knew it could not happen, then Petyr gets to remain a smug asshole.

 

16 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-if the throne openly calls for his head id say hed flee , goldcloaks would scour the city for him BUT that said we know they're corrupt as hell so if the adverage  officer finds him maybe he didnt see what he thought he saw and walks away with a bag of coins and some smaller ones for his men :)          or hell its flea bottom maybe if the officer is honest then a few  goldcloaks just  have to go missing and later LF is nowhere to be found! 

Well yeah, that depends of the Goldcloak anyway, Bywater and his men were ones and they weren't corrupt.

Then again, he's simply not killing them lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, frenin said:

-Well yes, that's just banter and he has little reason to think anyone is after him.

 

-Doesn't mean he can, just that he's confident that he's untouchable.

Case in point, if Tyrion snapped and sent Shagga and pals after him, it's gg but since both knew it could not happen, then Petyr gets to remain a smug asshole.

 

-Well yeah, that depends of the Goldcloak anyway, Bywater and his men were ones and they weren't corrupt.

Then again, he's simply not killing them lol.

-yeah  true but it doesnt come across as friendly between him and renly

-yeah hed def flee that said its no gaurantee theyd find him in the mini medieval vegas he owns before he gets to  his ship 

-no hes not killing anyone..but brune and the kettlebacks etc could (the apple eater id an underrated  books badass) ..but that would  only be if hes seen and cornered by a squad while fleeing the city. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

yeah  true but it doesnt come across as friendly between him and renly

They are quipping about who owns whom and how they are dressed...

 

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

yeah hed def flee that said its no gaurantee theyd find him in the mini medieval vegas he owns before he gets to  his ship 

There's no guarantee that they won't.

 

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

no hes not killing anyone..but brune and the kettlebacks etc could (the apple eater id an underrated  books badass) ..but that would  only be if hes seen and cornered by a squad while fleeing the city. 

Why would they risk their necks for LF?

That's like saying that Bronx could kill Gregor for Tyrion.. what's in it for them going against the central authority?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, frenin said:

They are quipping about who owns whom and how they are dressed...

 

There's no guarantee that they won't.

 

Why would they risk their necks for LF?

That's like saying that Bronx could kill Gregor for Tyrion.. what's in it for them going against the central authority?

-hes openly suggesting renly and loras are an item too, renly we know doesnt like lf one bit

-id say balance of probability the lil.snake has his escape routes well worked out 

-did you mean bronn? And most of lfs mercs have been with him and risking a lot to help him so clearly risk vs gain is positive. 

So if the lf got caught and needed rescuing from an army etc = forget it

If they need to kill a small squad  of goldcloaks blocking his escape  to hop on his ship with him to safety.....yeah easy choice! Its not like theres foresnics or cctv to show who killed the goldcloaks anyway so they dont even need to flee with him if theres 0 witnesses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

hes openly suggesting renly and loras are an item too, renly we know doesnt like lf one bit

He never does that. 

 

8 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

id say balance of probability the lil.snake has his escape routes well worked out

Fair enough.

 

8 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

did you mean bronn? And most of lfs mercs have been with him and risking a lot to help him so clearly risk vs gain is positive. 

Bronn have been with Tyrion too and risked a lot to help him.

There's an obvious limit of the risk however.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/15/2023 at 4:55 PM, CassDarry said:

Does griff and the gc know varys and illyrio are working together?

Do jorah and Barristan not know varys and illyrio are working together?

Jon Connington's thoughts in The Lost Lord, Dance 24 make it clear that he realized the Varys and Illyrio were working together. But I don't believe Barristan realizes that Varys and Illyrio are working together. In fact, if Barristan realized that Illyrio was working with Varys, I can't imagine that Barristan would have encouraged Daenerys to return to Pentos when he met her in Qarth. Barristan hated and completely mistrusted Varys. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/16/2023 at 9:56 AM, astarkchoice said:

-varys and terek lannsiter? Did he abduct him and why?

In The Sworn Sword we learn a bit about Hayford...

Quote

“Your Egg reminds me of my Addam. A brave boy, for one so young. Addam was trying to protect his wounded brother Harrold when the battle washed over them. A riverman with six acorns on his shield took his arm off with an ax.” His sad gray eyes found Dunk’s. “This old master of yours, the knight of Pennytree . . . did he fight in the Blackfyre Rebellion?”

“He did, m’lord. Before he took me on.” Dunk had been no more than three or four at the time, running half naked through the alleys of Flea Bottom, more animal than boy.

“Was he for the red dragon or the black?”

Red or black? was a dangerous question, even now. Since the days of Aegon the Conqueror, the arms of House Targaryen had borne a three-headed dragon, red on black. Daemon the Pretender had reversed those colors on his own banners, as many bastards did. Ser Eustace is my liege lord, Dunk reminded himself. He has a right to ask. “He fought beneath Lord Hayford’s banner, m’lord.”

“Green fretty over gold, a green pale wavy?”

“It might be, m’lord. Egg would know.” The lad could recite the arms of half the knights in Westeros.

“Lord Hayford was a noted loyalist. King Daeron made him his Hand just before the battle. Butterwell had done such a dismal job that many questioned his loyalty, but Lord Hayford had been stalwart from the first.”

“Ser Arlan was beside him when he fell. A lord with three castles on his shield cut him down.”

The Sworn Sword

So, we know that House Hayford of Crownlands was loyal to Daeron Targaryen during the Blackfyre Rebellion, and that a Peake killed the Lord of Hayford during the Battle of Redgrass Field. Most, but not all, perceptive readers believe that Varys is in league with the new Blackfyre. Could this have something to do with the disappearance of Tyrek Lannister, the new Lord of Hayford? In any event, the storyteller directs us back to Cersei...

Quote

Lancel nodded, plainly miserable. “When it seemed that I might die, my father brought the High Septon to pray for me. He is a good man.” Her cousin’s eyes were wet and shiny, a child’s eyes in an old man’s face. ‘He says the Mother spared me for some holy purpose, so I might atone for my sins.”

Cersei wondered how he intended to atone for her. Knighting him was a mistake, and bedding him a bigger one. Lancel was a weak reed, and she liked his newfound piety not at all; he had been much more amusing when he was trying to be Jaime. What has this mewling fool told the High Septon? And what will he tell his little Frey when they lie together in the dark? If he confessed to bedding Cersei, well, she could weather that. Men were always lying about women; she would put it down as the braggadocio of a callow boy smitten by her beauty. If he sings of Robert and the strongwine, though . . . “Atonement is best achieved through prayer,” Cersei told him. “Silent prayer.” She left him to think about that and girded herself to face the Tyrell host.

Cersei II, Feast 7

Here we see that Cersei realized the threat to her of Lancel’s knowledge, but we still have no indication that the very young Tyrek had any knowledge of the plot to kill Robert. But Jaime wonders...

Quote

The lady of the castle was a Lannister by marriage, a plump toddler who had been wed to his cousin Tyrek before she was a year old. Lady Ermesande was duly trotted out for their approval, all trussed up in a little gown of cloth-of-gold, with the green fretty and green pale wavy of House Hayford rendered in tiny beads of jade. But soon enough the girl began to squall, whereupon she was promptly whisked off to bed by her wet nurse.

Jaime III, Feast 27

Notice that Ermesande is dressed in green fretty and green pale wavy in beads of jade. And don’t forget Eustace described Hayford’s colors too, green fretty over gold, a green pale wavy. That’s a whole lot of green. As has been argued elsewhere Aegon is believed by many readers to be The Blackfyre, and it is often suggested that he will fight Daenerys in a second Dance of the Dragons. As the black dragon of House Blackfyre stands against the red dragon of House Targaryen, we recall the greens versus the blacks in the Dance of the Dragons. So, many of us assume that The George associates green with Aegon. So, perhaps, this is another hint that Tyrek’s abduction has something to do with securing the support of House Hayford for Aegon?

Quote

”Has there been no word of our Lord Tyrek?” her castellan asked as a course of trout was served.

“None.” Tyrek Lannister had vanished during the riots in King’s Landing whilst Jaime himself was still captive at Riverrun. The boy would be fourteen by now, assuming he was still alive.

“I led a search myself, at Lord Tywin’s command,” offered Addam Marbrand as he boned his fish, “but I found no more than Bywater had before me. The boy was last seen ahorse, when the press of the mob broke the line of gold cloaks. Afterward . . . well, his palfrey was found, but not the rider. Most like they pulled him down and slew him. But if that's so, where is his body? The mob let the other corpses lie, why not his?”

Jaime III, Feast 27

Here, the storyteller suggests to the reader that the boy is alive.

Quote

“He would be of more value alive,” suggested Strongboar. “Any Lannister would bring a hefty ransom.”

“No doubt,” Marbrand agreed, “yet no ransom demand was ever made. The boy is simply gone.”

Jaime III, Feast 27

But not held for ransom. So, for what purpose, and by whom, is Tyrek Lannister being held in secret? Jaime wonders whether Cersei had Varys have him disposed of...

Quote

“The boy is dead.” Jaime had drunk three cups of wine, and his golden hand seemed to be growing heavier and clumsier by the moment. A hook would serve me just as well. “If they realized whom they’d killed, no doubt they threw him in the river for fear of my father’s wrath. They know the taste of that in King’s Landing. Lord Tywin always paid his debts.”

“Always,” Strongboar agreed, and that was the end of that.

Yet afterward, alone in the tower room he had been offered for the night, Jaime found himself wondering. Tyrek had served King Robert as a squire, side by side with Lancel. Knowledge could be more valuable than gold, more deadly than a dagger. It was Varys he thought of then, smiling and smelling of lavender. The eunuch had agents and informers all over the city. It would have been a simple matter for him to arrange to have Tyrek snatched during the confusion . . . provided he knew beforehand that the mob was like to riot. And Varys knew all, or so he would have us believe. Yet he gave Cersei no warning of that riot. Nor did he ride down to the ships to see Myrcella off.

Jaime III, Feast 27

So, perhaps, Varys orchestrated the kidnapping of Tyrek to use him against House Lannister when the time was right for Aegon to assert his claim? Tyrek could be made to testify that Cersei and Lancel conspired to murder Robert. Since Aegon is presumed to be a Targaryen, the loyalist House Hayford, and other houses of the Crownlands, should be inclined to back the Targaryen claimant...

Quote

From Maidenpool had come Lord Mooton, from Raventree Lord Blackwood, from Duskendale Lord Darklyn. The royal demenses about King’s Landing sent forth Hayfords, Rosbys, Stokeworths, Masseys, and the king’s own sworn swords, led by three knights of the Kingsguard and stiffened by three hundred Raven’s Teeth with tall white weirwood bows. Mad Danelle Lothston herself rode forth in strength from her haunted towers at Harrenhal, clad in black armor that fit her like an iron glove, her long red hair streaming.

The Mystery Knight

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/16/2023 at 7:56 AM, astarkchoice said:

-varys and terek lannsiter? Did he abduct him and why?

I think Tyrek is still alive, but not entirely sure what happened to him.  The only reason I can see for Varys to take him would be if he had damaging information about Cersei.  If so, I don't know why he wouldn't have reappeared by now.  I doubt that he would have been abducted, as he is unlikely to be friendly to his abductors after his release.  He could have had help in leaving Kings Landing during the riot.

My guess is he is free and probably living in Braavos, the Vale or someplace safe like that.  As a Lannister, he would likely have had access to a decent sum of money.  If he left voluntarily, it could be because he feared being silenced for information he possessed, or simply to get away from Kings Landing or having an infant wife.  In any event, I will be looking for blond squire types, especially in the Arya and Brienne chapters, as neither would recognize him.  I've pondered him appearing at the Vale tournament, possibly as a mystery knight, or meeting Arya with neither aware of the other's true identity.  

Edited by Nevets
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think Tyrek is still alive, but not entirely sure what happened to him.  The only reason I can see for Varys to take him would be if he had damaging information about Cersei.  If so, I don't know why he wouldn't have reappeared by now.  I doubt that he would have been abducted, as he is unlikely to be friendly to his abductors after his release.  He could have had help in leaving Kings Landing during the riot.

My guess is he is free and probably living in Braavos, the Vale or someplace safe like that.  As a Lannister, he would likely have had access to a decent sum of money.  If he left voluntarily, it could be because he feared being silenced for information he possessed, or simply to get away from Kings Landing or having an infant wife.  In any event, I will be looking for blond squire types, especially in the Arya and Brienne chapters, as neither would recognize him.  I've pondered him appearing at the Vale tournament, possibly as a mystery knight, or meeting Arya with neither aware of the other's true identity.  

If he had access to Lannister gold abroad, I would think that the Lannister's would have some idea where he is. If he is in Braavos, he might be dead...

Quote

One man had died at the feet of the Stranger, a single candle flickering above him. She could feel its heat, and the scent that it gave off tickled her nose. The candle burned with a dark red flame, she knew; for those with eyes, the corpse would have seemed awash in a ruddy glow. Before summoning the serving men to carry him away, she knelt and felt his face, tracing the line of his jaw, brushing her fingers across his cheeks and nose, touching his hair. Curly hair, and thick. A handsome face, unlined. He was young. She wondered what had brought him here to seek the gift of death. Dying bravos oft found their way to the House of Black and White, to hasten their ends, but this man had no wounds that she could find.

...

The old woman had no purse, no wealth at all but for a ring on one thin finger. On the handsome man she found four golden dragons out of Westeros. She was running the ball of her thumb across the most worn of them, trying to decide which king it showed, when she heard the door opening softly behind her.

The Blind Girl, Dance

Edited by Lost Melnibonean
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/16/2023 at 2:56 PM, astarkchoice said:

Ok keeping this thread going what are peoples thoughts on

- where varys little birds and mice go to when too old/big to crawl around kl secret spaces?

-lf mentions he has varys balls if he had any in his pocket...empty bragging to ned or had he some final solution brewing for his longtime rival? If so what?

-varys and terek lannsiter? Did he abduct him and why?

-if danys stayed in pentos with her 3 dragons from quarth instead of going to the unsullied megastore what then?

-facless men are likely to know about this pair will they act? What would the fire priests think of another potentialy fire resistant dragon loving targ existing?

 

 

- Bowl of brown....or informers in other areas of the kingdom(obviously NOT Wex Pyke or could he?)

- I like to think empty bragging, unless he did know about the illyrio meeting.

- I'm leaning towards he is...maybe to illegtimise cersei for Aegon. How? I don't think as readers we know exactly but maybe hinted at?

- meets Young Griff then the golden company...but that wouldn't be as good of read I reckon.

- this pair being Varys & Illyrio? I think their overall mission supercedes and probably negates rivals plan & plots so they don't deem it worthy to intervene...yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/16/2023 at 10:20 AM, astarkchoice said:

-dont think so , ilyrio promises them 50k screamers  then later  that danys will be in pentos with the 3 dragons awaiting them. It always seems hes promising them an overwhelming force backing them over 'my eunch pal will sow war in westeros and kill anyone competent"

-we dont know but jorah and barristan worked together for a long time it seems unlikely they wouldnt have discussed how they got there. Jorah was working for varys but got the letter warning of assasins from ilyrio so id say he at least knows. Barristan fled the capital and ends up in ilyrios service...seems unlikely thats a coincidence and probably facilitated through varys.

- Harry Strictland seems to cautious to go along with a plan from illyrio concerning westeros without knowing they have allys but then again they never mention varys or master of whispers in the chapters we see them in do they? I would of thought the company spymaster might work in concert with The small council spymaster? I'm sure Jon con thinks it was varys who approached him?

- I can't remember jorah mentioning varys does he? Neither Barristan but like you I thought Varys helped Barristan get to illyrio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/18/2023 at 9:33 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jon Connington's thoughts in The Lost Lord, Dance 24 make it clear that he realized the Varys and Illyrio were working together. But I don't believe Barristan realizes that Varys and Illyrio are working together. In fact, if Barristan realized that Illyrio was working with Varys, I can't imagine that Barristan would have encouraged Daenerys to return to Pentos when he met her in Qarth. Barristan hated and completely mistrusted Varys. 

I thought so regarding Jon but couldn't remember exactly and if he hated Varys for another reason. Did Barristan hate and mistrust Varys? Was it him who said something like the poison starts with Varys?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, CassDarry said:

- Harry Strictland seems to cautious to go along with a plan from illyrio concerning westeros without knowing they have allys but then again they never mention varys or master of whispers in the chapters we see them in do they? I would of thought the company spymaster might work in concert with The small council spymaster? I'm sure Jon con thinks it was varys who approached him?

- I can't remember jorah mentioning varys does he? Neither Barristan but like you I thought Varys helped Barristan get to illyrio.

-yeah my impression was that the plan they sold the golden company on 1st involved 50k dothraki then as things changed it was later dany and her 3 dragona..they probably wouldnt have went along had they known the plan was actualy more dependant on varys gettima wars started in were

-he took his orders from him and got a letter warning bout assasin fron ilyrio

Hes forced to admit it in mereen

Edited by astarkchoice
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/19/2023 at 7:17 PM, CassDarry said:

I thought so regarding Jon but couldn't remember exactly and if he hated Varys for another reason. Did Barristan hate and mistrust Varys? Was it him who said something like the poison starts with Varys?

Yes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...