Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, divica said:

The problem here is that either directly or indirectly slaves are a fundamental part of essosi economy. If most people of essos have financial problems then a bank that does business with a lot of people in essos (not only bravosi) should have problems.

And even bravos certainly imports or exports products to or from people involved in the slave business. The price of everything is about to change in essos. It will be chaos!

Agreed but the biggest bank and the economy least dependant on slaves (bravos) would be the ones to weather the  fianacial storm best.

[BlackLightning]

Varys and Illyrio are great characters but I do not like them. Varys and Illyrio's plan is genius. As much they made contingency plans for Viserys (i.e. use Viserys to give Aegon both legitimacy and the right to follow him as king before discreetly allowing Viserys to be killed), they failed to make any for Dany. Not only did they already fail, they are continuing to fail. These continual oversights in regards to Dany will be their downfall. I can't wait for Dany to ruin and destroy everything that they had been working hard for.

And she is 100% right to be mad at them.

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Illyrio as a merchant looses out if the Seven Kingdoms split up again anyway.

Ding ding ding

 

[astarkchoice]

5 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Varys and Illyrio are great characters but I do not like them. Varys and Illyrio's plan is genius. As much they made contingency plans for Viserys (i.e. use Viserys to give Aegon both legitimacy and the right to follow him as king before discreetly allowing Viserys to be killed), they failed to make any for Dany. Not only did they already fail, they are continuing to fail. These continual oversights in regards to Dany will be their downfall. I can't wait for Dany to ruin and destroy everything that they had been working hard for.

And she is 100% right to be mad at them.

 

 

Agreed 

On reflection through its to be expected......once westeros lost the military dominance that dragons bring it was inevitable the free cities would start to meddle more across the sea 

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, divica said:

IT could be simpler. ilyrio could have a plot to use the fall of the IB to gain power in several free cities and then use his influence to make them join westeros and make a huge empire for faegon. The interesting part here is having a character planning an economic atack in order to seize power in some way. And that it would be a good story arc for LF.

 

what there is to back it up is pretty forced and exposed shortly before the reveal so that the author can say there was a justification for it. The "joffrey did it" was a lame choice and has several plotholes...

Eh, gaining political power over the free cities isn't exactly simpler. And the fall of the Iron Bank is dependent on the fall of the Iron Throne and the return of seven independent kingdoms, so that there is no chance of ever recovering the loan. So that means fAegon has to go.

I'm not sure what you're gettting at with Joffrey. I'm talking about Littlefinger working with Illyrio to bring down the bank. There's quite a bit to back that up, but like RLJ and the Arryn murder and the Westerling conspiracy, it's in the subtext.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Hes not a rich as the other banks nor is he set up as a bank thus he cannot fill that gap as well as other banks  or the 100s of other rich traders , not that the IB will collapse anyway nor would the faceless men (whos spy network will have easily penetrated vary abd ilyrios) allow such a plot to get as far.

He's pretty darn rich, and since he knows the bank is going down he can position himself to become one of the richest men on the Narrow Sea, if not the world.

The Rogare bank collapsed, and it was larger and more powerful than the IB. Size is irrelevant. If depositor faith erodes, the bank goes down as everyone scrambles to get their money.

The faceless men are not all-knowing or all-powerful. No one suspects that Illyrio is behind this. The crown defaulted, not Littlefinger, not Illyrio. And if he's smart, which he is, he will lose a token amount in the collapse as well.

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Erm  virtualy every free city has its own currency nor does the collapse of  the biggest bank in bravos collapse its economy to nothing !!! goods and services will still be traded and even if bravos currency was  somehow now  default due to IB collapse   theres at least a dozen other currencies  flowing around to trade in anyway  before we talk gold, silver, precious stones , rare goods or straight bartering!!!

Every free city mints its own coins out of gold, silver, copper and other precious metals. Only Braavos uses coins made of iron, which are worth less then paper in this world. Just like modern currency, the iron coin only has valuable if the entity issuing it is sound. If the IB goes, the iron coin is only worth the value of its iron, which is next to nothing.

I didn't say Braavos would collapse to nothing. It will collapse to the point that it can no longer exert its economic influence over the Narrow Sea, nor can it enforce the treaty with Pentos any longer. Yes, there will still be gold, silver, etc in Braavos, but only what people have in their pockets. This is a pittance compared to what they deposited in the bank and is now gone. The economic shock will be considerable, prices will skyrocket, markets will empty, riots will break out . . . this is what happens when the money supply vanishes.

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Erm pentos IS trading in slaves, doing it openly doesnt add a giant amount more to their economy  nor can bravos giant almaot unfair  advantage at sea be nulified by anything and shit even if they went the way of valyria theres still all the other free cities!!! Volantis  giant navy and harbour would fill most of that gap not  a mid  level player  like pentos!!

Any Pentoshi buying or selling slaves is doing it under the table, and if the Braavosi find out they will lose their lives. With the treaty defunct, they can start doing this openly, at much greater volume, and at no risk.

With the Braavosi economy in tatters, it has no money to build ships, repair ships, outfit them, crew them, it can't pay its soldiers and sailors, there is no money to buy goods, which means other traders will avoid the city. Braavos as an economic and military power is over. Pentos now has the best access to Westerosi markets, and there is one man with both the funds and the acumen to start taking advantage of that fact. Sorry, but there is no way to argue that the collapse of the bank and the resulting economic turmoil in Braavos would be anything but a huge win for Pentos, and Illyrio in particular.

Look at the map. Volantis is several thousand nautical miles farther from Westeros than Pentos. Nobody ever said Pentos would control all trade on the Narrow Sea, but with Braavos out of the picture, it is closer to the key ports or White Harbor, Gulltown, Maidenpool and King's Landing than anyone. That means they can move goods faster than anyone, and generate profits too. And Volantis just sent its entire fleet to Slaver's Bay, and is very likely on the verge of a slave revolt.

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Ned wasnt  political player nor did he have  a vast army of spies, ilyrio and varys came up together with varys being the spylord and ilyrio the moneyman not the otherway round!! Its also be stupid to have varys and lf expending so much energy competing if they both had the same ally

Illyrio is no fool. He knows the spy game as well as the money game. And it doesn't matter how far back he goes with Illyrio, "he never had a friend he wouldn't cheerfully sell for the right price," and "Illyrio believes in no cause but Illyrio."

In what way does this setup up "expend energy"? They are both working toward the same goal, but Varys does not know the whole thing, so all the energy is focused on Illyrio's desired outcome. Varys and Littlefinger also serve Robert, Joffrey, Tommen, Tywin and Tyrion, and yet they are working against each other.

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Huh? Why would a rich merchant want to run the economy of a the 7 kingdoms....is that a serious question!!! Theres no such laws agaisnt insider trading back then so that alone! Ilyrios chief export is described as cheesmonger so if he drops the tax on that alone and/or increases it on rivals hed be swimming in gold.

Who ever said Illyrio would be running the economies of the 7K? He's merely profiting from the trading opportunities that are now available. Illyrio is as much of a cheesemonger as Al Capone was a launderer. You don't become one of the richest, most powerful men in the world selling cheese, taxes or no taxes.

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Thats one port (white harbour is the maderlys who awnser to boltons )  even then valetown isnt  fully his nor did you  that include the ports or oldtown or lannisport or the iron islands , arbour etc nor was control  any of that (bar maybe valetown) predictable from lfs standing as young man!!

White Harbor, Gulltown, Maidenpool, Saltpans and King's Landing: that's five ports, with Fairmarket thrown in for good measure. The Manderlys in White Harbor are loyal to the Starks. Maybe you've noticed that they are working to depose the Boltons? Sansa is the key to the north. Install her as Lady of Winterfell, and all of the north, including White Harbor, is yours. Gulltown is in the Vale and Petyr is Lord Protector of the Vale and former chief of the port. He has many friends there in key places, including Gerold Grafton, Lord of Gulltown. The Graftons were the only Lord Declarant to attend Lynn Corbray's wedding to the daughter of a wealthy and powerful Gulltown merchant. Petyr is already in firm control of Gulltown.

Oldtown, the Arbor, Lannisport and the Island Isles are not on the Narrow Sea. Where did you get the idea that any of this would make Illyrio the sole magnate of trade across the entire globe?

 

 

 

 

 

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

-He's pretty darn rich, and since he knows the bank is going down he can position himself to become one of the richest men on the Narrow Sea, if not the world.

The Rogare bank collapsed, and it was larger and more powerful than the IB. Size is irrelevant. If depositor faith erodes, the bank goes down as everyone scrambles to get their money.

-The faceless men are not all-knowing or all-powerful. No one suspects that Illyrio is behind this. The crown defaulted, not Littlefinger, not Illyrio. And if he's smart, which he is, he will lose a token amount in the collapse as well.

-Every free city mints its own coins out of gold, silver, copper and other precious metals. Only Braavos uses coins made of iron, which are worth less then paper in this world. Just like modern currency, the iron coin only has valuable if the entity issuing it is sound. If the IB goes, the iron coin is only worth the value of its iron, which is next to nothing.

-I didn't say Braavos would collapse to nothing. It will collapse to the point that it can no longer exert its economic influence over the Narrow Sea, nor can it enforce the treaty with Pentos any longer. Yes, there will still be gold, silver, etc in Braavos, but only what people have in their pockets. This is a pittance compared to what they deposited in the bank and is now gone. The economic shock will be considerable, prices will skyrocket, markets will empty, riots will break out . . . this is what happens when the money supply vanishes.

-Any Pentoshi buying or selling slaves is doing it under the table, and if the Braavosi find out they will lose their lives. With the treaty defunct, they can start doing this openly, at much greater volume, and at no risk.

-With the Braavosi economy in tatters, it has no money to build ships, repair ships, outfit them, crew them, it can't pay its soldiers and sailors, there is no money to buy goods, which means other traders will avoid the city. Braavos as an economic and military power is over. Pentos now has the best access to Westerosi markets, and there is one man with both the funds and the acumen to start taking advantage of that fact. Sorry, but there is no way to argue that the collapse of the bank and the resulting economic turmoil in Braavos would be anything but a huge win for Pentos, and Illyrio in particular.

-look at the map. Volantis is several thousand nautical miles farther from Westeros than Pentos. Nobody ever said Pentos would control all trade on the Narrow Sea, but with Braavos out of the picture, it is closer to the key ports or White Harbor, Gulltown, Maidenpool and King's Landing than anyone. That means they can move goods faster than anyone, and generate profits too. And Volantis just sent its entire fleet to Slaver's Bay, and is very likely on the verge of a slave revolt.

-illyrio is no fool. He knows the spy game as well as the money game. And it doesn't matter how far back he goes with Illyrio, "he never had a friend he wouldn't cheerfully sell for the right price," and "Illyrio believes in no cause but Illyrio."

-in what way does this setup up "expend energy"? They are both working toward the same goal, but Varys does not know the whole thing, so all the energy is focused on Illyrio's desired outcome. Varys and Littlefinger also serve Robert, Joffrey, Tommen, Tywin and Tyrion, and yet they are working against each other.

-Who ever said Illyrio would be running the economies of the 7K? He's merely profiting from the trading opportunities that are now available. Illyrio is as much of a cheesemonger as Al Capone was a launderer. You don't become one of the richest, most powerful men in the world selling cheese, taxes or no taxes.

-White Harbor, Gulltown, Maidenpool, Saltpans and King's Landing: that's five ports, with Fairmarket thrown in for good measure. The Manderlys in White Harbor are loyal to the Starks. Maybe you've noticed that they are working to depose the Boltons? Sansa is the key to the north. Install her as Lady of Winterfell, and all of the north, including White Harbor, is yours. Gulltown is in the Vale and Petyr is Lord Protector of the Vale and former chief of the port. He has many friends there in key places, including Gerold Grafton, Lord of Gulltown. The Graftons were the only Lord Declarant to attend Lynn Corbray's wedding to the daughter of a wealthy and powerful Gulltown merchant. Petyr is already in firm control of Gulltown.

Oldtown, the Arbor, Lannisport and the Island Isles are not on the Narrow Sea. Where did you get the idea that any of this would make Illyrio the sole magnate of trade across the entire globe?

 

 

 

 

 

-even somehow of he could collapse the ironbank (again someone has already pojbted out they arent he major owners of westeros debt) then other banks would fill the gap , theres at least one in every free city and one in oldtown. Hes also not the only rich trader.

-the facless men watch everything of note thered 0 way they havent infiltrated the only other major spy network and one that hasnt got magic thus is helpless to stop them...so yeah they will have infiltrated ilyrio and varys networks.

-again no multiple free cities use non precious metals as their coins and even then as this is medieval times all currency would be gold etc backed dude, even modern currency didnt abandon that til the 1900s!! And again bravos and the ib will be far more insulated than the other free cities and smaller banks and traders

-much greater volume isnt gonna be a huge differenc eas theres slaves everywhere with the rich

-we have already covered thats not how economies work   nor would pentos overcome the huge advantages bravos already has plus the other free cities (did we forget about them?) ...ie   if the dollar failed to nothing tommorow it wouldnt alter u.s dominace of the seas or stop trade

-again theres other free cities with navies  and theres 0.way ilyrio could have predicted volantis sending its fleet to mereen

-no he doesnt know the spy game as well as the actual spy he finances, thats varys world not his 

-they se constantly spying and monitering each other as we see in book 1,  if they were in the same team that be hugely wasteful 

-hes specificaly says hel be master of coin and faegon king....a plan that makes wayy more sense than yours , actual verifiable power and a virtual licence to get superrich! As oppsed to somehow collapse one bank over a debt they dont fully own and hope that other existing  banks dont like money and refuse to fill the gaps!! 

-almost none of those are in lfs hands nor could they have lredicted sansa would be the remaining stark

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He's pretty darn rich, and since he knows the bank is going down he can position himself to become one of the richest men on the Narrow Sea, if not the world.

The Rogare bank collapsed, and it was larger and more powerful than the IB. Size is irrelevant. If depositor faith erodes, the bank goes down as everyone scrambles to get their money.

The faceless men are not all-knowing or all-powerful. No one suspects that Illyrio is behind this. The crown defaulted, not Littlefinger, not Illyrio. And if he's smart, which he is, he will lose a token amount in the collapse as well.

Every free city mints its own coins out of gold, silver, copper and other precious metals. Only Braavos uses coins made of iron, which are worth less then paper in this world. Just like modern currency, the iron coin only has valuable if the entity issuing it is sound. If the IB goes, the iron coin is only worth the value of its iron, which is next to nothing.

I didn't say Braavos would collapse to nothing. It will collapse to the point that it can no longer exert its economic influence over the Narrow Sea, nor can it enforce the treaty with Pentos any longer. Yes, there will still be gold, silver, etc in Braavos, but only what people have in their pockets. This is a pittance compared to what they deposited in the bank and is now gone. The economic shock will be considerable, prices will skyrocket, markets will empty, riots will break out . . . this is what happens when the money supply vanishes.

Any Pentoshi buying or selling slaves is doing it under the table, and if the Braavosi find out they will lose their lives. With the treaty defunct, they can start doing this openly, at much greater volume, and at no risk.

With the Braavosi economy in tatters, it has no money to build ships, repair ships, outfit them, crew them, it can't pay its soldiers and sailors, there is no money to buy goods, which means other traders will avoid the city. Braavos as an economic and military power is over. Pentos now has the best access to Westerosi markets, and there is one man with both the funds and the acumen to start taking advantage of that fact. Sorry, but there is no way to argue that the collapse of the bank and the resulting economic turmoil in Braavos would be anything but a huge win for Pentos, and Illyrio in particular.

Look at the map. Volantis is several thousand nautical miles farther from Westeros than Pentos. Nobody ever said Pentos would control all trade on the Narrow Sea, but with Braavos out of the picture, it is closer to the key ports or White Harbor, Gulltown, Maidenpool and King's Landing than anyone. That means they can move goods faster than anyone, and generate profits too. And Volantis just sent its entire fleet to Slaver's Bay, and is very likely on the verge of a slave revolt.

Illyrio is no fool. He knows the spy game as well as the money game. And it doesn't matter how far back he goes with Illyrio, "he never had a friend he wouldn't cheerfully sell for the right price," and "Illyrio believes in no cause but Illyrio."

In what way does this setup up "expend energy"? They are both working toward the same goal, but Varys does not know the whole thing, so all the energy is focused on Illyrio's desired outcome. Varys and Littlefinger also serve Robert, Joffrey, Tommen, Tywin and Tyrion, and yet they are working against each other.

Who ever said Illyrio would be running the economies of the 7K? He's merely profiting from the trading opportunities that are now available. Illyrio is as much of a cheesemonger as Al Capone was a launderer. You don't become one of the richest, most powerful men in the world selling cheese, taxes or no taxes.

White Harbor, Gulltown, Maidenpool, Saltpans and King's Landing: that's five ports, with Fairmarket thrown in for good measure. The Manderlys in White Harbor are loyal to the Starks. Maybe you've noticed that they are working to depose the Boltons? Sansa is the key to the north. Install her as Lady of Winterfell, and all of the north, including White Harbor, is yours. Gulltown is in the Vale and Petyr is Lord Protector of the Vale and former chief of the port. He has many friends there in key places, including Gerold Grafton, Lord of Gulltown. The Graftons were the only Lord Declarant to attend Lynn Corbray's wedding to the daughter of a wealthy and powerful Gulltown merchant. Petyr is already in firm control of Gulltown.

Oldtown, the Arbor, Lannisport and the Island Isles are not on the Narrow Sea. Where did you get the idea that any of this would make Illyrio the sole magnate of trade across the entire globe?

 

 

 

 

 

Rogare Bank?  Never heard of them.  They're not in the main series, so I doubt their story affects this one or is any kind of foreshadowing.

The iron coin is not a proxy currency.  Braavos uses gold and silver like everyone else.  Coins' value is based on their weight and purity, which are easily determined, especially for gold.  The iron coin is almost certainly small change, equivalent to copper in Westeros.  Its demise if it happened could cause a currency shortage, but that won't bring down the economy, especially since it's a small proportion of the money in circulation.

I can't see the Iron Bank being brought down by Westeros crown debt.  When Ned arrived, the Crown was 6 million in debt.  Half was held by the Lannisters.  One million was the Faith, which cheerfully wrote it off in exchange for activation of the Faith Militant.  Which leaves 2 million for the Iron Bank, Tyrosh syndicates, and everyone else.  So probably a bit more than 1 million to the IB.  If the Lannisters can afford to lose 3 million and the Faith 1 million, I think the Iron Bank will not be brought down by Westeros crown debt.  Especially since the Free Cities seem to regard Westeros as a backwater.  I doubt they have a lot invested there.  It may put a hole in their profits if the Crown reneges, which I doubt, but it won't bring them down.

Disappearance of slavery could cause problems, but Braavos and the IB would be among the least affected.  If there is serious economic trouble, they will be the last ones standing, if it gets to that point.

It is also useful to remember that Braavos and the rest of the Free Cities are a sideshow as far as the books are concerned.

Edited April 19 by Nevets

[astarkchoice]

21 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Rogare Bank?  Never heard of them.  They're not in the main series, so I doubt their story affects this one or is any kind of foreshadowing.

The iron coin is not a proxy currency.  Braavos uses gold and silver like everyone else.  Coins' value is based on their weight and purity, which are easily determined, especially for gold.  The iron coin is almost certainly small change, equivalent to copper in Westeros.  It's demise if it happened could cause a currency shortage, but that won't bring down the economy, especially since it's all portion of the money in circulation.

I can't see the Iron Bank being brought down by Westeros crown debt.  When Ned arrived, the Crown was 6 million in debt.  Half was held by the Lannisters.  One million was the Faith, which cheerfully wrote it off in exchange for activation of the Faith Militant

  Which leaves 2 million for the Iron Bank, Tyrosh syndicates, and everyone else.  So probably a bit more than 1 million to the IB.  If the Lannisters can afford to lose 3 million and the Faith 1 million, I think the Iron Bank will not be brought down by Westeros debt.  Especially since the Free Cities seem to regard Westeros as a backwater.  I doubt they have a lot invested there.  It may put a hole in their profits, if the Crown reneges, which I doubt, but it won't bring them down.

Disappearance of slavery could cause problems, but Braavos and the IB would be among the least affected.  If there is serious economic trouble, they will be the last ones standing, if it gets that point.

It is also useful to remember that Braavos, and the rest of the Free Cities, is a sideshow as far as the books are concerned.

This

 

Plus again ilyrio has stated his end goal and it makes sense, his natural son placed on the throne with everyone else thinking hes a  legit targ and not a blackfyre , with himself in a position to be even wealtheir as master of coin (and be close to and protect his boy) with his best pal varys backing them up. The boy having been preppd by the finest tutors money can buy to be a good king! 

[Lord Varys]

That Iron Bank theory there is a well-known crackpot. Makes pretty much no sense. Next we are going to buy the endgame of Littlefinger is to ruin the Lannisters with some kind of crypto scam. Or Paxter Redwyne has an elaborate scheme to replace the gold dragon with Arborgold as the new gold standard in the currency system ... but first has to completely destroy all competition in the wine business in Dorne - which is why he somehow masterminded the entire war (and actually Robert's Rebellion and the War of the Ninepenny Kings, too, although, strangely enough, not Balon's Rebellion - that was a scheme by the Braavosi to get access to cheap iron from the Iron Islands).

Edited April 20 by Lord Varys

[Craving Peaches]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Next we are going to buy the endgame of Littlefinger is to ruin the Lannisters with some kind of crypto scam.

I mean if anyone tried it, it would be him. But first he needs to invent computers and the internet, and make sure all the Nobles have access to them. But I can see Cersei falling for it, especially if he names the cryptocurrency after her. Since she's Lady of Casterly Rock now, she can do what she wants with the gold. The Fool would probably put it up as real security for a huge loan of CerseiCoin™ and then be out of a house and gold when the price of CerseiCoin™ crashed.

[three-eyed monkey]

I don't think Littlefinger is trying to crash the Iron Bank, he's trying to crash Ilyyrio and Varys's party without an invitation.

There was a time when I suspected that Littlefinger's rivalry with Varys was just for show and that they were possibly working together, but I tend to lean away from that now because Varys complained about Littlefinger's meddling in the plan (Littlefinger not Joffrey was the one who hired the catspaw and armed him with a blade he had publicly handed over to Robert and later secretly reacquired, but that's beside the point) and meddling is unwarranted interference.

So I don't believe they are working together but we are told Littlefinger and Varys watch each other very closely. I think Littlefinger knows about Varys and Illyrio's plan to bring in King Aegon. Littlefinger's counter move is to create a queen for Aegon to marry, a beautiful and recently widowed queen who brings the North and the Vale to the new king. Littlefinger knows there will be rival suitors, like Highgarden and Dorne, and that's what he means by what little peace the five kings left will not survive the three queens. He anticipates a war for Aegon's hand.

But Varys will counter that by taking Sansa off Littlefinger, by way of the Mad Mouse. It might even be checkmate for Littlefinger if that happens.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I don't think Littlefinger is trying to crash the Iron Bank, he's trying to crash Ilyyrio and Varys's party without an invitation.

There was a time when I suspected that Littlefinger's rivalry with Varys was just for show and that they were possibly working together, but I tend to lean away from that now because Varys complained about Littlefinger's meddling in the plan (Littlefinger not Joffrey was the one who hired the catspaw and armed him with a blade he had publicly handed over to Robert and later secretly reacquired, but that's beside the point) and meddling is unwarranted interference.

So I don't believe they are working together but we are told Littlefinger and Varys watch each other very closely. I think Littlefinger knows about Varys and Illyrio's plan to bring in King Aegon. Littlefinger's counter move is to create a queen for Aegon to marry, a beautiful and recently widowed queen who brings the North and the Vale to the new king. Littlefinger knows there will be rival suitors, like Highgarden and Dorne, and that's what he means by what little peace the five kings left will not survive the three queens. He anticipates a war for Aegon's hand.

But Varys will counter that by taking Sansa off Littlefinger, by way of the Mad Mouse. It might even be checkmate for Littlefinger if that happens.

No i think while varys and LF people all watched each other but neither knows their darkest secrets  otherwise theyd have destroyed  each other (cersei plays the game too but clumsily, we are told stannis was put on the track by somone probably linked to one of these 2) 

The issue is for varys is  LF spends much of his time in his new brothels and whorehouses so  probably few secret tunnels for his 'littlebirds' to eavesdrop with ( and kids would stand out there anyway) he plays the game well and has varys people watched as much as possible (and vice versa) and if varys birds do get any of his paperwork its as tyrion says all a mess of investments of the taxes...youdneed a complete ledger to find somethig to bring him down with if anything. His dalliances with lysa are as we see are  rare and he doesnt write her much either and finaly he has no master or allies to awner to.......thus there never will be incriminating conversations for littlebirds to eavesdrop  on or letters ti intercept/copy , his plans are all in his head and he hes got no reason  to share!!

 

Flipside is same goes for varys. He has lfs people watched as much as possible to help cancel all that spy b.s  out but he himself often goes by disguise and secret passageways and pathways so is hard to track ! He isnt visting lfs brothels to spill his guts to some whore or  get drunk and talk. His little birds who make up the bulk of his spy network we wre told are  kids and ilyrio seems to suggest mutilated to be mutes too!! He takes great pains to hide his meetings with his one ally/ partner too.  Somw of his  finances come straight from ilyrio so he has a seperate non state source of funds that LF cant examine too

 

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-even somehow of he could collapse the ironbank (again someone has already pojbted out they arent he major owners of westeros debt) then other banks would fill the gap , theres at least one in every free city and one in oldtown. Hes also not the only rich trader.

The size of the debt doesn't matter. Faith in the solvency of the bank is all that counts. If the bank that "always gets its due" were to somehow not get its due, it won't take much to orchestrate a panic -- especially if you have hundreds, if not thousands, of proxy depositors storming in to withdraw their accounts.

But let's look at the other holders of the crown's debt. The biggest is the Lannisters, followed by the Tyrells and the faith -- three powerful institutions that will be weakened considerably if their debts are not honored, or who could become powerful allies if they are. Then there is a Tyroshi trading cartel, a potential competitor on the Narrow Sea once Bravvos is toppled. So in all cases, Illyrio holds immense power over all these groups because of their loans to the crown.

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-the facless men watch everything of note thered 0 way they havent infiltrated the only other major spy network and one that hasnt got magic thus is helpless to stop them...so yeah they will have infiltrated ilyrio and varys networks.

No, the FM don't watch everything of note. Where did you get that from? The make hits for people who pay their price, either with lives or gold. Nobody but Littlefinger knows Illyrio is involved in any of this. If anyone is mad at anyone here, it will depositors who lost everything coming after the bank managers who blew their money -- especially those who slipped out the back door with whatever they could carry. That's who the FM will target.

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-again no multiple free cities use non precious metals as their coins and even then as this is medieval times all currency would be gold etc backed dude, even modern currency didnt abandon that til the 1900s!! And again bravos and the ib will be far more insulated than the other free cities and smaller banks and traders

Braavos uses a non-precious metal, iron, for their coinage. That's a fact. They are the only government that does this as far as we can tell. You are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Why would Braavos and the IB be "more insulated"? When the bank collapses, that's it. They're done. That's the way it works.

 

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-much greater volume isnt gonna be a huge differenc eas theres slaves everywhere with the rich

-we have already covered thats not how economies work   nor would pentos overcome the huge advantages bravos already has plus the other free cities (did we forget about them?) ...ie   if the dollar failed to nothing tommorow it wouldnt alter u.s dominace of the seas or stop trade

-again theres other free cities with navies  and theres 0.way ilyrio could have predicted volantis sending its fleet to mereen

Come on. Much greater volume means much greater profits. If you sold one orange for a dime, you'd have one dime. If you sold a hundred oranges for a nickel, you'd have five dollars. I can't believe this needs explaining.

This is exactly how economies work. Why do you think governments put so much care into maintaining stable currencies. Have you noticed all the hand-wringing about a possible default on U.S. debt? That alone would send the world economy into a tailspin. If the U.S. fed were to actually fail, the dollar becomes worthless and the entire world economic system would collapse. Braavos cannot build, outfit or maintain fleets without money. They cannot pay sailors, soldiers, dock workers, customs officials and all the other people needed to run its government. They cannot buy goods from foreign ports, they cannot buy goods from its own sources and sell them elsewhere. All of this takes money, and virtually all the money that Braavos and IB had control of is gone, forever. That's how it works.

Illyrio can clearly see that none of the free cities are positioned geographically to capitalize on Westerosi trade better than Pentos. For crying out loud, you think he won't ever make a move unless it makes him ruler of the entire planet? Then why is he mucking with the piddling little Iron Throne?

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-no he doesnt know the spy game as well as the actual spy he finances, thats varys world not his 

-they se constantly spying and monitering each other as we see in book 1,  if they were in the same team that be hugely wasteful 

Varys and Illyrio came up together, if their story is true. Illyrio is the one who is providing the spy network to Varys, remember?

They're on the same team for Ned and Robert too, and yet they are spying on each other. How wasteful. Everyone spies on everyone else, as Littlefinger demonstrated to Ned. The only person not doing this is Ned, and he paid for it with his life. And for Illyrio this is not a waste because it all works toward his benefit.

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-hes specificaly says hel be master of coin and faegon king....a plan that makes wayy more sense than yours , actual verifiable power and a virtual licence to get superrich! As oppsed to somehow collapse one bank over a debt they dont fully own and hope that other existing  banks dont like money and refuse to fill the gaps!! 

-almost none of those are in lfs hands nor could they have lredicted sansa would be the remaining stark

And the Sealord specifically said he had a rare and exotic cat. Words are wind. Look with your eyes, hear with your ears and the truth you will know. Even Tyrion doesn't buy this line about being MoC, and he's not nearly as sharp as he thinks he is.

You can't predict everything 20 years in the future. Petyr started this adventure by gaining control of the Gulltown ports, and he has successfully navigated his way to nominal control of the other key ports. There are still a few pieces to move, still some fruit that has yet to ripen. That's how he operates.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

Rogare Bank?  Never heard of them.  They're not in the main series, so I doubt their story affects this one or is any kind of foreshadowing.

Then you should read more. The Rogare bank was larger and wealthier than the IB, and it failed, leading to widespread economic woes in Lys and Westeros.

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The iron coin is not a proxy currency.  Braavos uses gold and silver like everyone else.  Coins' value is based on their weight and purity, which are easily determined, especially for gold.  The iron coin is almost certainly small change, equivalent to copper in Westeros.  Its demise if it happened could cause a currency shortage, but that won't bring down the economy, especially since it's a small proportion of the money in circulation.

The iron coin is the definition of a proxy currently. It's just like the paper dollar. It has no intrinsic value of its own, it only represents value that supposedly exists somewhere else. People use it because they have faith in the institution that issues it: the Iron Bank. If the bank were to fail, the coin is worthless and the primary means for the vast majority of the Braavosi population has of supporting itself is gone. Yes, there will be copper and silver and gold still about, but only what people are carrying at the time. This is a pittance to what they would have deposited in the bank. All that wealth is gone. There is no way you can argue that this would not have extreme economic repercussions. Imagine if all of your savings were to suddenly vanish, and your employer had no money to pay your wage and there was no way for you to pay rent, buy food, keep yourself from freezing to death . . . This is what Braavos will be like when the IB fails.

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I can't see the Iron Bank being brought down by Westeros crown debt.  When Ned arrived, the Crown was 6 million in debt.  Half was held by the Lannisters.  One million was the Faith, which cheerfully wrote it off in exchange for activation of the Faith Militant.  Which leaves 2 million for the Iron Bank, Tyrosh syndicates, and everyone else.  So probably a bit more than 1 million to the IB.  If the Lannisters can afford to lose 3 million and the Faith 1 million, I think the Iron Bank will not be brought down by Westeros crown debt.  Especially since the Free Cities seem to regard Westeros as a backwater.  I doubt they have a lot invested there.  It may put a hole in their profits if the Crown reneges, which I doubt, but it won't bring them down.

The bank will not be brought by the debt itself. When the one kingdom becomes seven kingdoms there is no one to collect from. They could kill all the kings and lords and ladies they want, but they will never get their money back. For a bank that "always gets its due" this produces a major loss of confidence among depositors. And remember, there is no FDIC here, no way to make things whole when the bottom falls out. So all it will take is a handful of proxy depositors to march into the bank and demand to withdraw their accounts, and when the bank closes its windows the ensuing panic brings it about in a day. That's how it went for the Rogares, if you'd bother to read the story.

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Disappearance of slavery could cause problems, but Braavos and the IB would be among the least affected.  If there is serious economic trouble, they will be the last ones standing, if it gets to that point.

It is also useful to remember that Braavos and the rest of the Free Cities are a sideshow as far as the books are concerned.

Who's talking about the disappearance of slavery? I'm talking about the disappearance of the Iron Bank. Once that is done, slavery will flourish, and Illyrio is in the prime position to profit from it.

Braavos and the Free Cities are the focus of their own stories. They make decisions based on what they think is best for themselves, not for the enjoyment of imaginary, other-wordly readers in a world they can't even conceive of. And if Braavos is so irrelevant, then why is it playing such a huge role in the story? Why are so many characters making their way there? Why are bank officials in Westeros? Why are there FM in Westeros?

[three-eyed monkey]

30 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

No i think while varys and LF people all watched each other but neither knows their darkest secrets 

You don't need spies to tell you everything. Spies are very helpful but it's still a game like chess or poker. You watch your opponent move their pieces, you try to anticipate and predict and counter, while making you own moves.

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"And I was a piece?" She dreaded the answer.

"Yes, but don't let that trouble you. You're still half a child. Every man's a piece to start with, and every maid as well. Even some who think they are players." He ate another seed. "Cersei, for one. She thinks herself sly, but in truth she is utterly predictable. Her strength rests on her beauty, birth, and riches. Only the first of those is truly her own, and it will soon desert her. I pity her then. She wants power, but has no notion what to do with it when she gets it. Everyone wants something, Alayne. And when you know what a man wants you know who he is, and how to move him."

 

Equally, Varys can try to predict what Littlefinger is doing. Sansa, a piece of significant value, disappears from King's Landing. It's no stretch to think she might have had help escaping, possibly from another player like Littlefinger. He might not know fully what Littlefinger intends but he sees the piece move and hopes the plump reward to bring her back to King's Landing can disrupt whatever plan Littlefinger has for her.

[Nevets]

23 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Then you should read more. The Rogare bank was larger and wealthier than the IB, and it failed, leading to widespread economic woes in Lys and Westeros.

The iron coin is the definition of a proxy currently. It's just like the paper dollar. It has no intrinsic value of its own, it only represents value that supposedly exists somewhere else. People use it because they have faith in the institution that issues it: the Iron Bank. If the bank were to fail, the coin is worthless and the primary means for the vast majority of the Braavosi population has of supporting itself is gone. Yes, there will be copper and silver and gold still about, but only what people are carrying at the time. This is a pittance to what they would have deposited in the bank. All that wealth is gone. There is no way you can argue that this would not have extreme economic repercussions. Imagine if all of your savings were to suddenly vanish, and your employer had no money to pay your wage and there was no way for you to pay rent, buy food, keep yourself from freezing to death . . . This is what Braavos will be like when the IB fails.

The bank will not be brought by the debt itself. When the one kingdom becomes seven kingdoms there is no one to collect from. They could kill all the kings and lords and ladies they want, but they will never get their money back. For a bank that "always gets its due" this produces a major loss of confidence among depositors. And remember, there is no FDIC here, no way to make things whole when the bottom falls out. So all it will take is a handful of proxy depositors to march into the bank and demand to withdraw their accounts, and when the bank closes its windows the ensuing panic brings it about in a day. That's how it went for the Rogares, if you'd bother to read the story.

Who's talking about the disappearance of slavery? I'm talking about the disappearance of the Iron Bank. Once that is done, slavery will flourish, and Illyrio is in the prime position to profit from it.

Braavos and the Free Cities are the focus of their own stories. They make decisions based on what they think is best for themselves, not for the enjoyment of imaginary, other-wordly readers in a world they can't even conceive of. And if Braavos is so irrelevant, then why is it playing such a huge role in the story? Why are so many characters making their way there? Why are bank officials in Westeros? Why are there FM in Westeros?

You write very entertaining fan fiction, but I see no reason to take it seriously, much less believe it.

Proxy depositors?  What proxy depositors?  I don't recall reading about them.  Come to think of it, does the bank even take deposits from the general public?  I expect they might handle transactions and provide safekeeping for local businesses and the like, but these would be known to them.

From what I gather, the Bank is financed by investors, called keyholders.  It does not appear to be financed by demand deposits.

The iron coin is valuable because it is produced in a specific quantity and generally accepted as a means of exchange for goods and services.  Kind of like the dollar, which everyone takes.  We have no idea who issues it.  It could the Iron Bank.  It could also be the local merchants association, the Sealord, or the Ironmongers Guild for all we know.  It's small change, so I'm pretty sure someone will back it.

What evidence do you have that Littlefinger even knows Illyrio, much less is conspiring with him?

There is one major character in Braavos and she is there for her own purposes.  Braavos is a convenient location to learn in and take a break.  There is one Faceless Man in Westeros, and he's gathering information.  Braavos and the rest of the Free Cities aren't that important and aren't going to be.

[astarkchoice]

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

You don't need spies to tell you everything. Spies are very helpful but it's still a game like chess or poker. You watch your opponent move their pieces, you try to anticipate and predict and counter, while making you own moves.

Equally, Varys can try to predict what Littlefinger is doing. Sansa, a piece of significant value, disappears from King's Landing. It's no stretch to think she might have had help escaping, possibly from another player like Littlefinger. He might not know fully what Littlefinger intends but he sees the piece move and hopes the plump reward to bring her back to King's Landing can disrupt whatever plan Littlefinger has for her.

That part is sorta true yes but overall the 2 of them are operating very murky or limited info on each other..both are shadowboxing with spywork well vs each other. Neither will know the full extent of the others plans (esp.varys with lf as petyr has no one to consult with when he wants to make a move he jsut does)

With regards sansa he can guess esp if hes seen the boat but probably hasnt gathered any paperwork or heard convos to be able to link the purple wedding to him or olenna (who we saw herself kept herself outside and a musican playing to ensure secrecy when she needed to talk !!)

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

You don't need spies to tell you everything. Spies are very helpful but it's still a game like chess or poker. You watch your opponent move their pieces, you try to anticipate and predict and counter, while making you own moves.

Equally, Varys can try to predict what Littlefinger is doing. Sansa, a piece of significant value, disappears from King's Landing. It's no stretch to think she might have had help escaping, possibly from another player like Littlefinger. He might not know fully what Littlefinger intends but he sees the piece move and hopes the plump reward to bring her back to King's Landing can disrupt whatever plan Littlefinger has for her.

When Shadrich had his conversation with Brienne, Varys was still Master of Whispers or had just left.  The reward for Sansa was most likely offered in that capacity.  I don't know why he would be interested on his own account; Sansa's nothing to him.  And since Tyrion is still alive, using her as marriage bait would be difficult, even if she could be found and was interested.

Edited April 20 by Nevets

[Nevets]

@John Suburbs 

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Braavos and the Free Cities are the focus of their own stories.  They make decisions based on what they think is best for themselves, not for the enjoyment of imaginary, other-worldly readers in a world they can't even conceive of.

Are you kidding me?!?  I certainly hope so. 

Braavos and the Free Cities don't really exist.  They were created by George R.R. Martin.  So yes, they absolutely do what they do for the enjoyment of readers, and for no other reason.  If you haven't figured that out by now, no wonder you come up with such crazy nonsensical theories.

Now GRRM does try to keep things sensible and within reason, but absolute realism is not required.  Nor expected.

Edited April 20 by Nevets

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

-The size of the debt doesn't matter. Faith in the solvency of the bank is all that counts. If the bank that "always gets its due" were to somehow not get its due, it won't take much to orchestrate a panic -- especially if you have hundreds, if not thousands, of proxy depositors storming in to withdraw their accounts.

-But let's look at the other holders of the crown's debt. The biggest is the Lannisters, followed by the Tyrells and the faith -- three powerful institutions that will be weakened considerably if their debts are not honored, or who could become powerful allies if they are. Then there is a Tyroshi trading cartel, a potential competitor on the Narrow Sea once Bravvos is toppled. So in all cases, Illyrio holds immense power over all these groups because of their loans to the crown.

-No, the FM don't watch everything of note. Where did you get that from? The make hits for people who pay their price, either with lives or gold. Nobody but Littlefinger knows Illyrio is involved in any of this. If anyone is mad at anyone here, it will depositors who lost everything coming after the bank managers who blew their money -- especially those who slipped out the back door with whatever they could carry. That's who the FM will target.

-Braavos uses a non-precious metal, iron, for their coinage. That's a fact. They are the only government that does this as far as we can tell. You are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Why would Braavos and the IB be "more insulated"? When the bank collapses, that's it. They're done. That's the way it works.

 

-Come on. Much greater volume means much greater profits. If you sold one orange for a dime, you'd have one dime. If you sold a hundred oranges for a nickel, you'd have five dollars. I can't believe this needs explaining.

-This is exactly how economies work. Why do you think governments put so much care into maintaining stable currencies. Have you noticed all the hand-wringing about a possible default on U.S. debt? That alone would send the world economy into a tailspin. If the U.S. fed were to actually fail, the dollar becomes worthless and the entire world economic system would collapse. Braavos cannot build, outfit or maintain fleets without money. They cannot pay sailors, soldiers, dock workers, customs officials and all the other people needed to run its government. They cannot buy goods from foreign ports, they cannot buy goods from its own sources and sell them elsewhere. All of this takes money, and virtually all the money that Braavos and IB had control of is gone, forever. That's how it works.

-llyrio can clearly see that none of the free cities are positioned geographically to capitalize on Westerosi trade better than Pentos. For crying out loud, you think he won't ever make a move unless it makes him ruler of the entire planet? Then why is he mucking with the piddling little Iron Throne?

-Varys and Illyrio came up together, if their story is true. Illyrio is the one who is providing the spy network to Varys, remember?

-They're on the same team for Ned and Robert too, and yet they are spying on each other. How wasteful. Everyone spies on everyone else, as Littlefinger demonstrated to Ned. The only person not doing this is Ned, and he paid for it with his life. And for Illyrio this is not a waste because it all works toward his benefit.

-And the Sealord specifically said he had a rare and exotic cat. Words are wind. Look with your eyes, hear with your ears and the truth you will know. Even Tyrion doesn't buy this line about being MoC, and he's not nearly as sharp as he thinks he is.

-You can't predict everything 20 years in the future. Petyr started this adventure by gaining control of the Gulltown ports, and he has successfully navigated his way to nominal control of the other key ports. There are still a few pieces to move, still some fruit that has yet to ripen. That's how he operates.

-one debt loss one time wont sink a bank , as no one else is escaping paying the same way  nor will merchants and buisness not still need loans and accounts etc. People will still need to borrow money and even then jsut becsuse  say one guy borrows from a mafioso and escaped into thin air doesnt mean everyone can do the same

-none of those institutions would fall due to their debt..shit kevan casualy  says the lannisters may pay off the whole thing themselves. 

-no we clearly hear arya listening in to faceless men reporting worldwide events, aryas training even as an acolyte is to discover 3 secrets per day and jacen we know goes to oldtown to recover a mysterious key...they watch world events of note carefully and clearly have their own agenda, theres 0 way theyd allow a vast secret org that can easily be infiltrated by them exist without scrutinty.

 

-nope theres many other free cities with non precious metal coins and AGAIN as with all pre modern currency itd be backed with gold etc The ib and bravos would be more insulated to the collapse of slavery as one is a non slave orientated economy and the other a bank with vast diverse portfolio

-righr but its already at a point where everyone who wsnts slaves has as many as they need..its not a market in pentos with a vast  untapped ceiling

-again the ib wouldnt fall also the currency is backed by gold , theres many other banks and as a multi cultural city theres vast amounts of other currencies floating around too as well as precious metals stones and goods before we talk direct bartering. The navy will still sail as they can still be paid in numerous other ways from other free city coinage to gold etc

-theres multiple ones with bigger navies and their economies are fine. The piddling iron throne is one of the most powerful positons in all planetos and master of coin is a licence for a very wealthy merchant lile ilyrio to move up to lannister,hightower, tyrell , yi ti  wealth levels etc

-no hes providing cash and orphans..varys is the one teaching them spycraft

-that make 0 sense..if varys and LF were on the same team for ilyrio having them work together would be far more productive to the goal u think they have.

-master of coin as lf shows when used right is a licence to ger filthy rich

-but you have stated he got in touch with lf as a boy and knew hed be master of coin somehow!