Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

Viserys is dead by that point.

That goes without saying. We are talking hypotheticals here, about the original plan. But I'm done.

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

If Robb wanted to bend the knee why not do it with Stannis or Renly? Why would they bend the knee to the son of Aerys who still calls Eddard Stark a dog whenever he draws breath?

He doesn't do it with Stannis and Renly principally because of the circumstances around those two. Renly has obvious problems with legitimacy which are evident from the outset, and Robb is clearly uncomfortable with declaring for a king out of opportunism alone. But Stannis is a deeply unattractive option because it's already established that his only supporters are the island lords around Dragonstone and he's unlikely to pick up any more. This lack of a clear choice leads to a vacuum which in turn leads Robb to be bounced into declaring independence.*

But the kingdom of the North and the Trident is not a viable proposition against a united south. The North alone might be able to hold out but the Riverlands are a strategic disaster, yet Robb-as-king can't just abandon half his kingdom (and the associated loyal bannermen). The reasoning given by the Greatjon at the declaration of independence was that "it was the dragons we knelt to, and the dragons are gone", i.e. the North owes no continuing allegiance to the house of Baratheon, no matter which of them is legitimate. The Starks, as a rule, seem to have been essentially loyal Targaryen bannermen who were forced into rebellion by Aerys's arbitrary cruelty. If the dragons return in the shape of Viserys and Aegon, that gives Robb the face-saving opportunity he needs to negotiate a reconciliation with the Iron Throne and abandoning his pretensions of secession that the Baratheons can't (to the extent they'd even be prepared to: it's likely only Renly would be prepared to negotiate on this point anyway).

*Now, I do blame Stannis for this state of affairs because I think Robb's being left on the horns of a dilemma and everything that follows is principally his fault. Stannis, the only one of the rebels to have real foresight of what was going to go down, is somehow only the third to swing into action. He should have had Cressen sending out ravens announcing his claim as fast as he could write them as soon as he heard Bobbo was dead, and Robb should have been first on the list of addressees. If Stannis makes his announcement immediately, Robb probably declares for him, which immediately makes Stannis a more viable prospect and makes Renly's own declaration less likely. Instead, Stannis dicks around for ages trying to lure Renly's bannermen to his side (which fails completely) and squanders the initiative, so that by the time he actually declares, he looks just as opportunistic as Renly, only significantly less potent.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

Viserys is a completely toxic asset. He is half mad, cruel, stupid, weak and cowardly... and this traits get exposed real soon five minutes into meeting him.

Aegon however is nice and bright, he' kind, he's brave and bold and he seems to know how to win people over.

I think Viserys knows how to behave, when sober anyway, and while he's prone to anger, doesn't seem to be maliciously cruel, and certainly not publicly malicious and cruel, in the way that Joffrey is (at least right up until Vaes Dothrak). He managed to live off the kindness of strangers for years, and feast the Golden Company and endure their laughs without seemingly flying off the handle, which it's hard to imagine Joffrey managing since he couldn't even sit through his own wedding without making an unnecessary spectacle of his own prickishness. The Lannister-Baratheons still manage to win round the Tyrells, Martells (nominally), most of the Stormlands and the Vale with Joff as their figurehead, so why should Viserys do any worse?

Even if Viserys himself looks like a bit of a tool, being surrounded by strong, capable, reasonable figures who can restrain his wilder impulses (Illyrio, Doran, the Golden Company leaders, Aegon) will help reassure prospective allies, in the same way that Tywin reassures Lannister allies. But while Tywin commands some respect among the great lords of Westeros as a competent leader and the least unattractive strategic option available, Viserys brings with him all the prestigious baggage of the Targaryen dynasty and so for lords who are on the fence makes a more inspiring option.

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I think Viserys knows how to behave, when sober anyway, 

I do not think Viserys knows how to properly behave, sober or ortherwise, he is arrogant, he is an idiot and he inspires mistrust to anyone who ever meets him.

 

5 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

doesn't seem to be maliciously cruel,

his sister may disagree with that one.

 

5 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

He managed to live off the kindness of strangers for years, and feast the Golden Company and endure their laughs without seemingly flying off the handle, which it's hard to imagine Joffrey managing since he couldn't even sit through his own wedding without making an unnecessary spectacle of his own prickishness.

Viserys was an adult, Joffrey died 13. Viserys was a beggar, Joffrey died King.

Viserys behaved the way he did while being a beggar, i cannot thik how off the rails would he go by having a tiy amount of power.

 

8 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The Lannister-Baratheons still manage to win round the Tyrells, Martells (nominally), most of the Stormlands and the Vale with Joff as their figurehead, so why should Viserys do any worse?

Joffrey is a kid, which allows him to be out of sight and out of mind while adults handle the business... And still got murdered because of his behaviour.

If Tommen had not been a back up, i very much doubt that the alliance would have gone through.

 

 

12 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Even if Viserys himself looks like a bit of a tool, being surrounded by strong, capable, reasonable figures who can restrain his wilder impulses (Illyrio, Doran, the Golden Company leaders, Aegon) will help reassure prospective allies,

Would he be surrounded by them tho? The plan seemed to be pretty much to dump him, would Doran actually ties his and his House's fate to Viserys after meeting him? It's more likely that he cuts his losses and washes his hands of the affair, or he pushes for well... his actual nephew to get the throne.

I have no fate in either, especially in Doran, who explicitly plays to not lose.

 

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

But while Tywin commands some respect among the great lords of Westeros as a competent leader and the least unattractive strategic option available, Viserys brings with him all the prestigious baggage of the Targaryen dynasty and so for lords who are on the fence makes a more inspiring option.

Most of the Lords would have been rebels, why would that baggage be prestigious and or inspiring for them?

Ofc at the end of ADWD, with everything in ruins, people will embrace even the cook, but at the beginning? Not so likely.

 

18 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The reasoning given by the Greatjon at the declaration of independence was that "it was the dragons we knelt to, and the dragons are gone"

That is a spur of the moment rant by Greatjon, a rant not even Robb three minutes earlier believed.

 

19 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The Starks, as a rule, seem to have been essentially loyal Targaryen bannermen who were forced into rebellion by Aerys's arbitrary cruelty.

No different than the Baratheons yet...

 

20 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

If the dragons return in the shape of Viserys and Aegon, that gives Robb the face-saving opportunity he needs to negotiate a reconciliation with the Iron Throne and abandoning his pretensions of secession that the Baratheons can't

Robb did not want a face saving opportunity until after the Blackwater, he was pretty fine with the crown till then, with Viserys and Aegon on Westeros, it only means more division and more opportunity to actually retain his gains.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

I think Viserys knows how to behave, when sober anyway, and while he's prone to anger, doesn't seem to be maliciously cruel, and certainly not publicly malicious and cruel, in the way that Joffrey is (at least right up until Vaes Dothrak). He managed to live off the kindness of strangers for years, and feast the Golden Company and endure their laughs without seemingly flying off the handle, which it's hard to imagine Joffrey managing since he couldn't even sit through his own wedding without making an unnecessary spectacle of his own prickishness. The Lannister-Baratheons still manage to win round the Tyrells, Martells (nominally), most of the Stormlands and the Vale with Joff as their figurehead, so why should Viserys do any worse?

Viserys is only cruel towards his sister - and that's part of their specific dynamic, it has to do with him desiring her, wanting to marry her, feeling bad about having to sell her of like a pawn ... which then turns into loathing and hatred when she actually enjoys being Drogo's wife and has no issue turning into a savage herself.

But there is no indication he wants to bathe in blood to get his throne. He talks about his enemies, the Usurper's Dogs and all that ... but he only wants to be loved, so if Ned, say, were to hand him a crown or invite him to succeed Robert as king then he would likely weep with joy and keep Ned as Hand. (Perhaps a bit much, that, but he would be grateful.)

Tywin and Jaime would have a much harder time making a peace with him ... but the Stark children should have no such problems at all. Like Viserys, they weren't involved in the Rebellion, so who cares. Technically Viserys could also make such a peace with Renly or even Stannis

Viserys is more comical and pitiful than cruel. Dressed up and financed properly he would cut as good a figure as the second Daemon Blackfyre, I imagine. And with an army of his own he would no longer come as a beggar but as a proper pretender - and the Targaryen loyalists in Westeros actually are waiting for something like that.

We already see how Aegon starts to win the allegiance of people whose lands he invaded and whose castles occupies. The Stormlanders don't live to wait or die for Stannis - they are not unhappy to flock to Aegon's banner.

And once he takes Storm's End we might see a much stronger ripple effect there - seing lords and knights and common men all across the Seven Kingdoms remembering that the Targaryens are their rightful rulers, taking up arms or deserting the armies they are a part of at this point to go to Storm's End and swear themselves to Rhaegar's son.

This is the kind of sign the people are waiting for - an alternative that cuts through the Baratheon civil nonsense they have endured for so long now. Everybody could, in the end, accept a Targaryen pretender.

And Viserys could have had the same effect. In fact, he may have cut a much better figure than Aegon does so far, having no blue hair and actually looking pretty much like a slender version of Rhaegar. The family resemblance is clearly there.

[chrisdaw]

On 4/21/2023 at 6:02 PM, astarkchoice said:

To be fair i think drogo had 0 interest in putting part of his hard won force under an idiot like viserys, bloodriders wouldnt follow him. He was probably gonna intimidate cities for loot and mass slave sell until he can give viserys like 10-20k  sellswords

No the only thing Drogo would give Viserys is the Westeros crown when he leaves Westeros conquered.

Varys and Illyrio would have at some point had to move Drogo off Viserys onto Aegon, which shouldn't have been hard.

[astarkchoice]

12 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

No the only thing Drogo would give Viserys is the Westeros crown when he leaves Westeros conquered.

Varys and Illyrio would have at some point had to move Drogo off Viserys onto Aegon, which shouldn't have been hard.

I dont think drogo had any intention of travelling to westeros until dany was amsot posioned

He.did promise viserys an army ....but hes unlikely to allow such a worm.control of a large section of his men (not would they follow  viserys) so.a sellsword army seems to fit

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

I dont think drogo had any intention of travelling to westeros until dany was amsot posioned

He.did promise viserys an army ....but hes unlikely to allow such a worm.control of a large section of his men (not would they follow  viserys) so.a sellsword army seems to fit

Obviously, Illyrio and Varys always had the plan to convince Drogo to commit himself to an invasion by way of convincing him that Robert wanted Dany, him, Viserys, and whatever child they might have dead.

The original deal between Viserys and Drogo seems to have involved only a portion of his khalasar but it stands to reason that Illyrio knew what would happen if they convince Drogo that Robert Baratheon would try to kill him and his family.

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Obviously, Illyrio and Varys always had the plan to convince Drogo to commit himself to an invasion by way of convincing him that Robert wanted Dany, him, Viserys, and whatever child they might have dead.

The original deal between Viserys and Drogo seems to have involved only a portion of his khalasar but it stands to reason that Illyrio knew what would happen if they convince Drogo that Robert Baratheon would try to kill him and his family.

To be fair i think any help.from from drogo was always a bonus not to be expected. The threat (rightly dismissed by ned) was just designed as a smokescreen to keep them blind to all else in essos plus get lords taking about targs so varys could find out which were still loyal.

Drogo id say was planning to give viserys an army as promised but one of sellswords paid by  profits from mass slave sales! 

Robert offering an open bounty and the failed assasination prob hanged his(drogos)  mind . That  probably wasnt in varys or ilyris original plan  either as we hear the pair alone before that saying they need more time.

Edited April 23 by astarkchoice

[GZ Bloodraven]

On 4/15/2023 at 2:06 AM, The Fresh PtwP said:

We have little to no idea what's up with Varys and Illyrio plain and simple.

Aegon and Dany are supposed to be a team right? Except I don't know why they barely monitored Vizzy 3 and Dany, and so heavily monitored Aegon. 

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, GZ Bloodraven said:

Aegon and Dany are supposed to be a team right? Except I don't know why they barely monitored Vizzy 3 and Dany, and so heavily monitored Aegon. 

I suspect they kept an eye on Viserys and Dany but just didn't give them any meaningful public assistance. I expect they knew where they were and what they were up to at pretty much all times. It was important for the plan that they be both visible (retaining unquestionable Targ legitimacy) and relatively unthreatening (so that Robert didn't consider them worth eliminating) until they were ready to move with Aegon.

[chrisdaw]

12 hours ago, GZ Bloodraven said:

Aegon and Dany are supposed to be a team right? Except I don't know why they barely monitored Vizzy 3 and Dany, and so heavily monitored Aegon. 

Varys and Illyrio are not Targ loyalists. Viserys and Dany were completely expendable, they were nothing more than currency which Illyrio/Varys tried to flip into a Drogo invasion of Westeros. That they give a fuck about Viserys or Dany for some kind of house loyalty or moral reasons is merely keeping up appearances (and with Tyrion Illyrio doesn't even bother, which seems rather stupid and might come back to bite him) for the likes of JC and the GC (and probably Aegon) who do care about that shit.

Illyrio expected Dany would die out on the Dothraki Sea. Had she died they'd have been hard pressed to get Drogo to do anything, but they had no better use for her so /shrug. Hell he was so attracted to her he thought of not even bothering with the gamble and keeping her for himself.

They care about her now obviously because she's got dragons and an army.

[frenin]

3 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Illyrio expected Dany would die out on the Dothraki Sea. Had she died they'd have been hard pressed to get Drogo to do anything,

Yeah, this is an obvious flaw of people believing Varys and Ilyrio always intended to frame Robert to goad Drogo to invade, they did not believe she could have made it before the news got to Robert.

[astarkchoice]

50 minutes ago, frenin said:

Yeah, this is an obvious flaw of people believing Varys and Ilyrio always intended to frame Robert to goad Drogo to invade, they did not believe she could have made it before the news got to Robert.

Yep agreed 

He also begged viserys not to go with her, he wanted him to stay in pentos where he could survive and remain a useful piece.

We know robert made this an open contract , known across the sea through all his lords.

We also know jorah only suceeds in saving dany as ilyrio warns him to be on guard (no one is comming at a khaleesi  with a weapon so its gotta be posion) had  he not been there it would have just looked like a natural death of a frail  pregnant woman ...common for the time.

On top of that had it suceeded robert probably woulda added viserys to the list too guven how well his  open contract on dany worked

 

[Lord Varys]

22 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

To be fair i think any help.from from drogo was always a bonus not to be expected. The threat (rightly dismissed by ned) was just designed as a smokescreen to keep them blind to all else in essos plus get lords taking about targs so varys could find out which were still loyal.

That makes little sense. Illyrio counted on a Dothraki invasion. This was an integral and important part of the plan. A plan that was ruined by both Viserys and Drogo dying.

Aegon clearly is the even more important piece in their game.

22 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Drogo id say was planning to give viserys an army as promised but one of sellswords paid by  profits from mass slave sales! 

That makes no sense. Illyrio could have bought Viserys a sellsword army easily enough. They wouldn't have needed a Dothraki deal for this.

22 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Robert offering an open bounty and the failed assasination prob hanged his(drogos)  mind . That  probably wasnt in varys or ilyris original plan  either as we hear the pair alone before that saying they need more time.

Illyrio says he needs more time for the invasion. And he is right there. Even after the assassination attempt Drogo's son would be born before an invasion were to take place. Drogo starts to make preparations for it but it would have still taken months - perhaps even longer now that Drogo intended to personally cross the Narrow Sea and move his entire khalasar to Westeros.

But it is obvious that Varys and Illyrio would have also had a plan to convince Drogo to actually go through with the invasion. And it strikes one as very likely that Varys telling Robert about Dany's pregnancy/child, convincing Robert to murder them, and then having Illyrio ensure that Drogo gets that message always was the way they would want to go by that.

I mean, it is obvious that this was the case as Varys is the one who keeps informing Robert about the Targaryen situation in Pentos and the Dothraki Sea. It is part of his plan to keep him informed about this so he does what Varys wants him to do at the right moment.

Once that's done Varys stops bothering the Small Council and the guys in charge about Targaryen stuff.

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I suspect they kept an eye on Viserys and Dany but just didn't give them any meaningful public assistance. I expect they knew where they were and what they were up to at pretty much all times. It was important for the plan that they be both visible (retaining unquestionable Targ legitimacy) and relatively unthreatening (so that Robert didn't consider them worth eliminating) until they were ready to move with Aegon.

Not sure if they did anything to make them non-threatening. Varys would know about and likely be in charge of any assassination attempts commanded by Robert, so that's that.

Also, of course, Viserys was still a boy when he went into exile, so for roughly ten years or so he was simply in no position to even pose a big threat as he could not exactly personally marshal an army or lead an invasion himself. One imagines that it was only, say, five years before AGoT that the Beggar King really was seen as a potential danger in his own right - before that Robert would have been more afraid of, say, the Dornish or other Targaryen loyalists bringing Viserys to Westeros and/or starting a rebellion in his name.

27 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Yep agreed 

He also begged viserys not to go with her, he wanted him to stay in pentos where he could survive and remain a useful piece.

We know robert made this an open contract , known across the sea through all his lords.

We also know jorah only suceeds in saving dany as ilyrio warns him to be on guard (no one is comming at a khaleesi  with a weapon so its gotta be posion) had  he not been there it would have just looked like a natural death of a frail  pregnant woman ...common for the time.

On top of that had it suceeded robert probably woulda added viserys to the list too guven how well his  open contract on dany worked

The timeline make it impossible for an open contract guy to reach Vaes Dothrak as fast as Illyrio's and Varys' warnings about assassination attemps. Also, it makes absolutely no sense for the wineseller guy to go Vaes Dothrak to try to murder a khaleesi in this clumsy manner if he was actually an independent contractor. Such a guy would be both more cautious and subtle and would likely only risk such a thing if there was really great money in the whole thing. Neither was the case for this guy. He was set up by Varys and Illyrio. They or their agents gave him a cask of wine he was to give to Dany. And he was told that the wine therein was poisoned (which I actually don't think it was).

Also, of course, Robert already wanted them all dead at this point - Dany, her unborn child, and Viserys. He says so at the Small Council.

[frenin]

37 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

On top of that had it suceeded robert probably woulda added viserys to the list too guven how well his  open contract on dany worked

Yeah, the more you think of it, the clearer it gets that they did not have a "plan" per se, just an ultimate goal (crown Aegon) and multiple variables and pieces as context changed.

That's why people so adamant on them actually trying to crown Viserys (this one is just too funny) or them being reliant on Drogo delivering when he had zero intention to do so (if he ever promised them something of the sort in the first place) is baffling.

These people improvised as situation changed, they really did not have a plan for either sibling, they were lambs to offer at any given point.

Besides the fact that Illyrio also sold Dany off to get Drogo to leave Pentos be.

[Alester Florent]

13 minutes ago, frenin said:

Yeah, the more you think of it, the clearer it gets that they did not have a "plan" per se, just an ultimate goal (crown Aegon) and multiple variables and pieces as context changed.

That's why people so adamant on them actually trying to crown Viserys (this one is just too funny) or them being reliant on Drogo delivering when he had zero intention to do so (if he ever promised them something of the sort in the first place) is baffling.

These people improvised as situation changed, they really did not have a plan for either sibling, they were lambs to offer at any given point.

Besides the fact that Illyrio also sold Dany off to get Drogo to leave Pentos be.

I think Drogo probably did intend to deliver, but in his own time and on his own terms. To maintain the position that he does, he's going to have to have a reputation among the Dothraki for reliability and that means honouring deals you strike in good faith. But the Dothraki also seem to have a much less contractual and urgent approach to this kind of arrangement than the Westerosi do, so he intends to follow through when convenient and Viserys is getting anxious because from his perspective time is of the essence.

After all, when Viserys goes off with Drogo into the Dothraki Sea, Drogo doesn't ask what the hell he's doing there. Viserys is not a part of the khalasar nor in anybody's employ (like Jorah); he's there on his own terms as Drogo's ally. They then fall out for various reasons, of course, but Drogo doesn't send him home. It's Viserys who repudiates the alliance, not Drogo.

Whether Drogo actually ever intended to go in person is a different question. And that may be part of the misunderstanding/communications breakdown between Drogo and Viserys. Viserys heard "I'll get you an army" and assumed Drogo meant "I'll lead my army in support of you" where Drogo meant "I'll put together a new army from scratch and hand it over to you." Maybe.

[astarkchoice]

20 minutes ago, frenin said:

Yeah, the more you think of it, the clearer it gets that they did not have a "plan" per se, just an ultimate goal (crown Aegon) and multiple variables and pieces as context changed.

That's why people so adamant on them actually trying to crown Viserys (this one is just too funny) or them being reliant on Drogo delivering when he had zero intention to do so (if he ever promised them something of the sort in the first place) is baffling.

These people improvised as situation changed, they really did not have a plan for either sibling, they were lambs to offer at any given point.

Besides the fact that Illyrio also sold Dany off to get Drogo to leave Pentos be.

Yes LF pushing the wot5k made them react as did danys advebtures.

Overall the critical pieces are there..varys knows who will back a targ monarch and who wont ,hes been spymaster long enough and now has all the kingdom talking about one , hel 'verify ' the new aegon is legit and finaly he can also kill critical KL people at will thanks to the secret tunnels and escape with ease!

Meanwhile on the other side of the sea the golden company is ready to do what they were made for ...to go home and have all their westerosi  officers restored from exile to lords under faegon,ilyrio has prepped him to be a good competent leader, we know one triarch is paid up by ilyrio and the other 2 are elephants thus probably know him through trade contacts. Hes got 3 ships packed  to the brim with rare items to bribe or buy extra things they need.

Visery, dany and drogo where always a extra peices to distract and possibly use!

[frenin]

9 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I think Drogo probably did intend to deliver, but in his own time and on his own terms. To maintain the position that he does, he's going to have to have a reputation among the Dothraki for reliability and that means honouring deals you strike in good faith. But the Dothraki also seem to have a much less contractual and urgent approach to this kind of arrangement than the Westerosi do, so he intends to follow through when convenient and Viserys is getting anxious because from his perspective time is of the essence.

The problem with this deliver is that it's one sided, Drogo never alludes to it (and he has zero reason to) and makes it plain that neither he nor his army are going to cross the poisoned waters.

With that context, it seems strange that Drogo would ever agree to that, why would he?

Maybe he was simply going to raise an slave army from the ashes of his conquests but i very much doubt heever agreed for a single Dothraki to go to Westeros.

 

12 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

After all, when Viserys goes off with Drogo into the Dothraki Sea, Drogo doesn't ask what the hell he's doing there. Viserys is not a part of the khalasar nor in anybody's employ (like Jorah); he's there on his own terms as Drogo's ally. They then fall out for various reasons, of course, but Drogo doesn't send him home. It's Viserys who repudiates the alliance, not Drogo.

Drogo knows Viserys is Dany's brother (thus a part of Drogo's family), under normal circumstances, he has little reason to send him off.

 

 

[astarkchoice]

38 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

-That makes little sense. Illyrio counted on a Dothraki invasion. This was an integral and important part of the plan. A plan that was ruined by both Viserys and Drogo dying.

Aegon clearly is the even more important piece in their game.

-That makes no sense. Illyrio could have bought Viserys a sellsword army easily enough. They wouldn't have needed a Dothraki deal for this.

-Illyrio says he needs more time for the invasion. And he is right there. Even after the assassination attempt Drogo's son would be born before an invasion were to take place. Drogo starts to make preparations for it but it would have still taken months - perhaps even longer now that Drogo intended to personally cross the Narrow Sea and move his entire khalasar to Westeros.

 

-The timeline make it impossible for an open contract guy to reach Vaes Dothrak as fast as Illyrio's and Varys' warnings about assassination attemps. Also, it makes absolutely no sense for the wineseller guy to go Vaes Dothrak to try to murder a khaleesi in this clumsy manner if he was actually an independent contractor. Such a guy would be both more cautious and subtle and would likely only risk such a thing if there was really great money in the whole thing. Neither was the case for this guy. He was set up by Varys and Illyrio. They or their agents gave him a cask of wine he was to give to Dany. And he was told that the wine therein was poisoned (which I actually don't think it was).

Also, of course, Robert already wanted them all dead at this point - Dany, her unborn child, and Viserys. He says so at the Small Council.

-no he didnt he says that to reasure the golden company and as a threat to worry robert with (and get lords talking thus varys can hear who would bend the knee and whod resist) as  ned correctly points out a dothraki khalssar crossing the narrow sea is ridiculous..and thats unopposed are we forgetting that hard bastard stannis batatheon has the royal fleet (150) sitting in the way and can call on much much more of needs be! By the time a navy capable of bringing a 10k+ khalassar  across the sea is ready (assuming robert doesnt order a strike 1st) the whole of westeros navies would be ready!

-not at the  sort of scale needed, a 10k or more force hired for long period is beyond his means. The golde company is with him for their return home....wealthy as he is he couldnt actualy afford to hire them himself for any significant time.

- nope a letter reaches jorah letting him know robert has made it publicly known, ilyrios letters dont move faster than anyone elses. The winseller may have been either a professinal   assasin or more likely  literaly just a wineseller who hears of the bounty and tried to claim it. Hes have easily gotten.away with it too if not for jorah  and no a lordship is an incredibly lucrative prize for any ordinary person, def enough to try and kill for!

 

 

[frenin]

15 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

(and get lords talking thus varys can hear who would bend the knee and whod resist)

Daily reminder that Varys' web is strong in KL, not so strong elsewhere.

Varys does not run a police state like Bloodraven did, he does not have "100 eyes and one".