U.S. Politics: Great Men Master trends

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

To me, Silver's track record the past couple of elections seemed less than impressive. Too many predictions based on polls that were either biased or way outdated. Then again, that is merely my take.

Well, this is the problem.  Most people don't understand that Silver is not making predictions.  He constructs models that provide probabilities as outputs.  In that way, his models are pretty good - better than most - albeit, granted, not nearly as good as he thinks/says they are.

[Ran]

They're very good models, which is why it's bizzare to me that Disney is losing the license to all the models as well while still planning to keep the brand. Who in the world are they going to get to develop new models? Or are they just going to have 538 put a web-y/social media-y spin on ABC's election coverage?

ETA: @DMC Per the reporting, Disney licenses Silver's models, and the license expires when his contract does.

Edited April 25 by Ran

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Ran said:

ETA: @DMC Per the reporting, Disney licenses Silver's models, and the license expires when his contract does.

Thanks.  I tried to skim the article to find out about that but, well, *squirrel*.  Apparently my attention span right now is that of a 12 year old.  Anyway, that pretty much means 538 ceases to be 538.  From the statement he put out, sounds like he'll be providing the modeling elsewhere.

[Zorral]

So now we know the reason TC got canned by Murdoch.

He must have thought, "I gave up Jerry Hall for this??????"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/rupert-murdoch-s-ex-fiancé-believes-tucker-carlson-is-a-messenger-from-god-report/ar-AA19NdcQ

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

Criminalization of gender conformity(except in the possible cases of mockery) and trans people was always the goal.

Also stuff like this is why pretending terms like “biological man” and “biological woman” are valid is dangerous imo.

Edited April 26 by Varysblackfyre321

[Varysblackfyre321]

If she gets expelled barely a word of coverage if any will be given to her on the mainstream news.

[Kalnak the Magnificent]

I'm guessing she can be put back in similar to the Tennessee 3, but I also don't know if she would be.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

So now we know the reason TC got canned by Murdoch.

He must have thought, "I gave up Jerry Hall for this??????"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/rupert-murdoch-s-ex-fiancé-believes-tucker-carlson-is-a-messenger-from-god-report/ar-AA19NdcQ

 

She must be a good lay...preacher.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If she gets expelled barely a word of coverage if any will be given to her on the mainstream news.

I have no context. What did she do? One might be fighting for a righteous cause, but if you do it in a way that violates the collective rights, safety, dignity, integrity or decorum of the House then without enough allies in the House to protect you you're vulnerable to harsh consequences.

[Tywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

She must be a good lay...preacher.

So what's stranger, a 92 year old deciding to get married or a super religious person deciding to marry someone that openly and actively corrupts religion?

The whole situation always seemed odd to me.

[The Anti-Targ]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So what's stranger, a 92 year old deciding to get married or a super religious person deciding to marry someone that openly and actively corrupts religion?

The whole situation always seemed odd to me.

I try not to be ageist, so I'm going to go with option 2. Though how strange is that even, when you have hundred's of thousands, maybe even millions of super religious people with apparently more loyalty and attachment to Trump than to Jesus Himself?

[Tywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I try not to be ageist, so I'm going to go with option 2. Though how strange is that even, when you have hundred's of thousands, maybe even millions of super religious people with apparently more loyalty and attachment to Trump than to Jesus Himself?

Not sure that qualifies as ageist. My grandfather got married in his 90's, but it was to give his long term GF health insurance. Getting divorced and then quickly married at that age seems odd. 

Edited April 26 by Tywin et al.

[Varysblackfyre321]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I have no context. What did she do? One might be fighting for a righteous cause, but if you do it in a way that violates the collective rights, safety, dignity, integrity or decorum of the House then without enough allies in the House to protect you you're vulnerable to harsh consequences.

She said the gender affirming care they’re trying to ban for trans kids will cost lives.

She’s right they’re ultimately putting satisfying their primitive disgust over people’s lives.

But she’s trans and trying to defend trans people  so she’ll get a lot less attention then the two men who were expelled in Tennessee from the state house.

 

Edited April 26 by Varysblackfyre321

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

She said the gender affirming care they’re trying to ban for trans kids will cost lives.

She’s right they’re ultimately putting satisfying their primitive disgust over people’s lives.

But she’s trans and trying to defend trans people  so she’ll get a lot less attention then the two men who were expelled in Tennessee from the state house.

 

The excuse their offering is that she said they have “blood on their hands” for the bill.  The Montana Republican Legislative Caucus is full of shit.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Well… this is interesting:

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

16 hours ago, DMC said:

Well, this is the problem.  Most people don't understand that Silver is not making predictions.  He constructs models that provide probabilities as outputs.  In that way, his models are pretty good - better than most - albeit, granted, not nearly as good as he thinks/says they are.

The Onion just ran an article yesterday with this hilarious headline (paraphrasing) "Increasingly unhinged Nate Silver declares 39 has 83% chance of being 64"

[TrackerNeil]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The excuse their offering is that she said they have “blood on their hands” for the bill.  The Montana Republican Legislative Caucus is full of shit.

I don't go for this blood-on-your-hands rhetoric, either, but I think the bar for censuring a legislator should be higher than that. And a legislature certainly shouldn't be expelling members for reasons other than corruption or something really over the top. 

One wonders how many insurrectionists are currently sitting in the MT state house, with nary a threat of explusion against them... 

Edited April 26 by TrackerNeil

[maarsen]

3 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I don't go for this blood-on-your-hands rhetoric, either, but I think the bar for censuring a legislator should be higher than that. And a legislature certainly shouldn't be expelling members for reasons other than corruption or something really over the top. 

One wonders how many insurrectionists are currently sitting in the MT state house, with nary a threat of explusion against them... 

In most parliamentary systems, I think the main cause for expulsion is for calling a fellow member a liar. Rhetorical embellishment is not usually a cause.

[Martell Spy]

I don't think Murdoch is remotely done with Carlson yet. Looks like he has plenty of ammunition.

Tucker Carlson’s vulgar language in texts contributed to Fox News firing – report
Host called senior colleague a C-word in text message obtained by lawyers as part of Dominion lawsuit

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/26/tucker-carlson-fired-text-message-fox-executive

Quote

 

Tucker Carlson’s firing from Fox News came after he used vulgar language to describe a network executive, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Carlson described a senior Fox News executive as a C-word in a text message obtained by lawyers as part of a defamation lawsuit between the network and Dominion Voting Systems, according to the Journal, which like Fox is part of the Murdoch media empire.

In a case settled last week for $787.5m, Fox lawyers reportedly convinced the Delaware judge to redact the message from public filings. Carlson, however, was still reportedly furious the network was not doing enough to protect him.

The primetime host’s internal messages were among the most embarrassing for Fox, as he said he “passionately hated” Trump, called for a colleague to be fired for accurately fact-checking claims about voting machines, and bluntly criticized Powell.

More embarrassing information about Carlson may yet come to light. Rolling Stone reported on Tuesday that the network has a dossier of damaging information about him.

 

 

Edited April 26 by Martell Spy

[Ormond]

10 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not sure that qualifies as ageist. My grandfather got married in his 90's, but it was to give his long term GF health insurance. Getting divorced and then quickly married at that age seems odd. 

Yes, Tywin, that qualifies as ageist.  Getting divorced and quickly remarried to a trophy wife is one of the conspicuous sleazy things people like Trump and Murdoch will do at any age.