Jon’s only failure as Lord Commander

[Curled Finger]

7 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

I disagree about this.

Jaime didn't just go the KG because he wants to be a true knight, but also because he believes he can fuck with Cersei there. His motivation was in large part selfish.

The motivation of his 'greatest act' is also intentionally ambiguous. Did he kill Rossart and Aerys to save the innocents, or to save himself and his father? Similarly, did he abandon Cersei because he realized she is a horrible person, or because he realized she cheated on him? 

Obviously, he made the right choices both time, but we don't know if he did it for the 'right reasons' (and I have serious doubts in the case of Cersei).

 

Overall, I seriously doubts that Jaime is the hero as he portrays himself. I think he is rather a person who does things for the sake of the people he loves:

"The things I do for love," he said with loathing.

and that group of people started out with Tyrion and (especially) Cersei and was expanded with Brienne.

Easy tiger.  We covered Jamie's motivations earlier.  Jamie clearly states why he killed both Rossart and Aerys.  It was the right thing to do, for himself, his father and the city.  It was selfish and selfless.  Heroism can work both ways.  Cersei was pretty mean to him after he lost his hand.  Give him a break.  She's mean then he finds out she's a cheat.  He does stand pretty pat on leaving her reasons be damned.  She is the only woman he has ever loved.   Jamie doesn't portray himself as a hero.  He thinks of Selmy and Dayne as heroes.  He thinks of himself as a great fighter and Brienne as a true knight, but never of himself as a hero.  He is just a guy trying to do better.  I agree his initial motivations in the beginning are exclusively for his family, as are Jon's.  Like Jon, Jamie is exposed to a larger world and grows.  I think the loss of his sword hand humbled him some, as perhaps meeting Brienne did.  Try to keep in mind that Jamie was Jon's age or very close to it when he killed Aerys.  I think Jon would have done the same thing.  

[Curled Finger]

3 minutes ago, LongRider said:

She’s concerned with ‘The Great Other’ which is the big bad of R’Hllar .

Of course you are right, but still she doesn't ever talk about wights or real Others.  Her visions don't connect to Old Nan's stories or anything I have read with my own ears!  Does that make sense? 

[LongRider]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

This! And then the argument will become, “he needed more men around him!”

Like, he’s wrong b/c he doesn’t suspect his brothers of treason? /smh

Yup, and there were men showing up from everywhere because of the Wun Wun kerflulle.  Funny, that was in book as well.     You’re on a tear today kissdbyfire, love it. 

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, LongRider said:

Yup, and there were men showing up from everywhere because of the Wun Wun kerflulle.  Funny, that was in book as well.     You’re on a tear today kissdbyfire, love it. 

Yes! IIRC men were pouring from the surrounding buildings, and yet this is another argument people often use to explain why Jon’s dead. It’s similar to suddenly everyone knows about the switcheroo even though no was was told and no one has any reason to doubt their own eyes. Credit to Martin, it’s the way he phrases some things and just leads us where he wants us to go and also to overlook things in the text that would lead us elsewhere? Did that even make any sense?

Sadly there’s also cross-contamination from the abomination…

[LongRider]

Yeah, I remember reading some time ago about how Marsh & Co were going to hide Jon’s body in the ice cells cuz no one saw the murder.   
GRRM must have written that passage in invisible ink.  I still laff about that theory from time to time. 

[LongRider]

16 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Of course you are right, but still she doesn't ever talk about wights or real Others.  Her visions don't connect to Old Nan's stories or anything I have read with my own ears!  Does that make sense? 

Yes, never thought of it that way, but then I never liked her, think she’s mostly an opportunistic fraud.  She doesn’t really understand the dangers of the Others. 

[Curled Finger]

5 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Yeah, I remember reading some time ago about how Marsh & Co were going to hide Jon’s body in the ice cells cuz no one saw the murder.   
GRRM must have written that passage in invisible ink.  I still laff about that theory from time to time. 

That ice cells bit has been around forever.  I remember that being part of the whole waking dragons from stone idea.  I don't remember it being Marsh or anyone in particular who is supposed to put Jon there.  Funny how the things we talk about here get crossed with real text.  

[csuszka1948]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

OP, imo all the major decisions Jon made in ADwD were not only the right ones but also the best ones he could have made to uphold the spirit of the vow which has fuck all to do w/ crowns or lands or the IT but rather “protecting the realms of men”. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry, I don't have time to answer in detail now.

However, I would note that ASOIAF is not a story about flawless heroes who get killed out of nowhere.

It's a story where (almost) every major character's downfall or death is the result of their own actions and mistakes. I don't think Jon's death (or perhaps assassination attempt) is an exception.

Edited May 2, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Only they don’t know about the switcheroo, do they? I will never understand why so many readers assume anyone currently at CB other than Jon and Mel know about it. After all, both the crows and the free folk saw Mance burn w/ their own eyes. And they’re not going to start doubting what they saw themselves b/c of a weird letter from a known dodgy individual that contains lies and what are, in their eyes, insane requests like asking for “Reek”. 

No, his plan is to intercept Ramsay before he arrives at CB making demands and to make him answer for his threats. 
Also, crown schmown. The IT never answered the Watch’s pleas for help, Stannis did. The job of the LC of the Watch is to defend the realms of men, and that’s exactly what Jon’s doing. 

Ah the good old “let them die” argument. The cowardly and bigoted argument… The problem is, even leaving the cowardice and bigotry out of the discussion, it’s a stupid move to leave thousands of people north of the Wall to die and then join the army of the enemy and come fight you. 

No, it’s not reasonable and their stupid attempt on Jon’s life may and likely will cost the Watch dearly. 
 

OP, imo all the major decisions Jon made in ADwD were not only the right ones but also the best ones he could have made to uphold the spirit of the vow which has fuck all to do w/ crowns or lands or the IT but rather “protecting the realms of men”. 

Where does it say that Jon is planning to intercept Ramsay?  In his speech at the Shieldhall Jon says he intends to make Ramsay answer for his threats.  He then annouces that he rides for Winterfell and will anyone join him.  The wildlings all cheer and join him.

This looks a lot like the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch attacking Winterfell with a wildling army.  Which the Night's Watch will be blamed for.  In fact, this is such a wildly stupid idea I think Jon has something up his sleeve.

Intercepting Ramsay en route is a wonderful idea.  It may even be the true plan.  But no such plan was announced, so as far as Marsh and gang are concerned, their commander is going to attack the local representative of the Crown with a wildling army.  Bad things are likely to happen, especially if Stannis and his army are no more.  Hence the attack- to prevent that from happening.

[Daeron the Daring]

10 hours ago, LongRider said:

Maester Aemon's opinion is not law, and denying the men of the NW from loving their family members is cruel.  It's projection on Aemon's part as he is feeling desolate because of his own failures.  Jon wanting to save Arya from Ramsay is doing the right thing.  

Aemon's opinion is enough to be true. And it is.

You can love your family as a Night's Watch member, you can love anyone, really. What the Watch, on paper, requires from its members is to have the order's best interests at their heart. And the people of the Night's Watch either voluntarily decide to join it, or do it to escape harsher punishment (death). Jon's decision to join the Watch was a dumb one (from a personal perspective), but he still did. Oaths are dumb for obvious reasons, yet it matters to so many. People are designed for different lifestyles, and most don't need oaths to make sacrifices or compromises.

By all acounts, trying to save Arya from Ramsay is the right thing, but that doesn't make Jon not an oathbreaker, and one who's actions not damaged the cause of humanity directly by pursuing her.

If Jon was a perfect character with no failures and bad decisions, then his ultimate sacrifice is weightless. A perfect guy doing perfect, what's so interesting about that? What's the point of having a story around him then?

[kissdbyfire]

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

Where does it say that Jon is planning to intercept Ramsay?  In his speech at the Shieldhall Jon says he intends to make Ramsay answer for his threats.  He then annouces that he rides for Winterfell and will anyone join him.  The wildlings all cheer and join him.

This looks a lot like the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch attacking Winterfell with a wildling army.  Which the Night's Watch will be blamed for.  In fact, this is such a wildly stupid idea I think Jon has something up his sleeve.

Intercepting Ramsay en route is a wonderful idea.  It may even be the true plan.  But no such plan was announced, so as far as Marsh and gang are concerned, their commander is going to attack the local representative of the Crown with a wildling army.  Bad things are likely to happen, especially if Stannis and his army are no more.  Hence the attack- to prevent that from happening.

Sure, it was not announced but things can be inferred - and yes, things can be wrongly inferred but I don’t think that’s the case here. In an extremely optimistic and unrealistic prediction it would take them 3 + weeks in good weather to reach Winterfell and I’m sure Jon knows this. We’ll learn more eventually, and I’m especially interested in learning more about the conversation Jon and Tormund had just prior to Jon’s Shieldhall speech. Based on what he said, it seems clear to me that both men hoped the free folk would do exactly as they did when Jon said he’d “ride to Winterfell alone”. Would they have reacted the same way if he’d said “I’m gonna sit somewhere along the Kingsroad and wait for Ramsay to show up? We can’t know of course, but I think not.

And that’s not all. Considering how long it would take them to actually reach Winterfell, and keeping in mind that Jon is aware of it and of the imminent threat from the Others, would he be willing to be away from CB for so long? Again, we don’t know but I think not. 
So, yeah, it’s an assumption but one I’m quite comfortable making. 

[Nevets]

47 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Sure, it was not announced but things can be inferred - and yes, things can be wrongly inferred but I don’t think that’s the case here. In an extremely optimistic and unrealistic prediction it would take them 3 + weeks in good weather to reach Winterfell and I’m sure Jon knows this. We’ll learn more eventually, and I’m especially interested in learning more about the conversation Jon and Tormund had just prior to Jon’s Shieldhall speech. Based on what he said, it seems clear to me that both men hoped the free folk would do exactly as they did when Jon said he’d “ride to Winterfell alone”. Would they have reacted the same way if he’d said “I’m gonna sit somewhere along the Kingsroad and wait for Ramsay to show up? We can’t know of course, but I think not.

And that’s not all. Considering how long it would take them to actually reach Winterfell, and keeping in mind that Jon is aware of it and of the imminent threat from the Others, would he be willing to be away from CB for so long? Again, we don’t know but I think not. 
So, yeah, it’s an assumption but one I’m quite comfortable making. 

As I said in my post, I'm perfectly happy with the idea that Jon is planning to intercept Ramsay.  The problem is, Bowen Marsh doesn't know that.  As far as he knows, Jon's leading a wildling army to Winterfell, and that will end badly.  It will piss off the Boltons, who represent the Crown, and are well placed to retaliate against the Night's Watch, especially with everyone gone to Hardhome and no Stannis to hold them at Winterfell.

And that's not even counting his concerns about Jon's support for Stannis and the wildling influx, which is likely going to be a drain on resources, and could potentially destabilize the North.  Yes, the Crown has offered little help, but they can hurt the Night's Watch badly if they wish.

"No one is the villain in their own story" - George R.R. Martin.  Words to remember.  Marsh isn't doing this because he's ambitious or upset about being passed over or any of those base sort of motives. Marsh truly believes that what he is doing is necessary to preserve the Watch.  I think he is wrong, but I understand where he is coming from.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Nevets

[SeanF]

Let’s turn the argument around.

Do we think that Jon would be doing the morally virtuous thing, had he alerted the Boltons that Stannis was on his way, on the basis that the Boltons represent the crown, ignored the plight of “Arya”, executed Mance, and surrendered Selyse, Shireen et al to Ramsay?

I would argue that would place him in the same category as Aerys’ Kingsguard.  I would call that lawful evil.  All these acts would attract Bowen Marsh’s approval, and be in accordance with the law.  They would still be immoral.

Edited May 2, 2023 by SeanF

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Let’s turn the argument around.

Do we think that Jon would be doing the morally virtuous thing, had he alerted the Boltons that Stannis was on his way, on the basis that the Boltons represent the crown, ignored the plight of “Arya”, executed Mance, and surrendered Selyse, Shireen et al to Ramsay?

I would argue that would place him in the same category as Aerys’ Kingsguard.  I would call that lawful evil.  All these acts would attract Bowen Marsh’s approval, and be in accordance with the law.  They would still be immoral.

The Boltons didn't need to be told Stannis was on his way.  He wasn't exactly hiding his movements after Deepwood Motte, nor was he going fast enough to achieve surprise.  Jon did advise not attacking the Dreadfort, sensing a trap, but I suspect Marsh would have done the same, on the basis that it is the Bolton seat.

Jon did nothing to help Arya until it appeared she had escaped on her own.  We know from his thoughts that he felt that as long as she was in Bolton hands, he wasn't in a position to help her and she was on her own.  Marsh obviously wouldn't have tried to help her, but he has no real reason to do so.

Jon didn't want Mance executed, but because he felt Mance was useful, not because he thought it was immoral.

I have no idea what Marsh would do about the demanded hostages.  Given Ramsay's bragging about torturing people, I suspect he might have simply ordered them to leave.

I think Marsh wants to do as the Crown demands not because it is right necessarily, but because he is afraid of what might happen otherwise.  If the Crown, or its local representative, wishes, they could do great harm to the Night's Watch.

[csuszka1948]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

Let’s turn the argument around.

Do we think that Jon would be doing the morally virtuous thing, had he alerted the Boltons that Stannis was on his way, on the basis that the Boltons represent the crown, ignored the plight of “Arya”, executed Mance, and surrendered Selyse, Shireen et al to Ramsay?

I would argue that would place him in the same category as Aerys’ Kingsguard.  I would call that lawful evil.  All these acts would attract Bowen Marsh’s approval and be in accordance with the law.  They would still be immoral.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That wouldn't be the morally virtuous thing to do.

Advising Stannis wasn't a bad idea, since it cannot be traced back to him and there are valid arguments why Stannis winning the North would benefit the Watch: he actually knows about the threat of the Others and is willing to help them, while the Lannisters didn't show any intention of helping and the Boltons don't know about the threat and is not 100% certain that they would help.

I am not sure that executing Mance is a good idea either. My impression is that Val knows that he is alive and that's why she become so docile - killing him would cause a massive setback in the relationship with the wildlings.

Sending Mance and 6 spearwives to either help Arya get to the Wall from the Long Lake or help her escape from Barrowton (I wouldn't exclude the second possibility at all, because I don't see how the 6 spearwives are necessary at all for the first one, but they come handy in an infiltration mission) is very much questionable. Since Arya escaped, there is a high possibility that they get caught and the attempt is linked back to him, and even if it doesn't, he cannot hide that Arya is at the Wall. The Boltons will know that he assisted in her escape (or from their point of view, stealing Ramsay's bride), and if they win, they will be very hostile towards Jon - even if they don't attack the Watch (because it will be very difficult to convince the Northern lords to do it), the chance of them offering any kind of support to the Watch against the Others goes out of the window.

 

 

The biggest mistake was his reaction to the Pink Letter, essentially his temperament has gotten the better of him.

1) Roose is the nominal leader of the North, not Ramsay, and from the tone of Ramsay it seems pretty likely that he is mad and the other Northern lords wouldn't follow him into marching to the Wall through snow and wind and attacking the Watch. Preparing for defense next to the Wall is better, but his temperament was high and he was goaded into attacking himself.

He obviously couldn't give up Val or Mance's son or tell them to leave, because the wildlings would rebel, but I very much doubt that this would be a priority to Roose. About Selyse, Melisandre and Shireen (+Reek and Arya when they arrive), he could tell them to leave. 

 2) His failure at leadership (not rulership!).

The way he announces his intentions in the Shieldhall speech gives the impression that he is leading an army of wildlings to Winterfell to become King of the North (since it's difficult to see what else could he do if he takes it), while forcing the rest of the Watch to participate in another Great Ranging (because that's essentially the mission to Hardhome) under the leadership of a wildling only to save further wildlings who they probably cannot feed, when the last Great Ranging ended in disaster.

He didn't only break his oaths (since he doesn't try to deny the contents of the Pink Letter), he blatantly prioritizes the lives of wildlings and his family over the lives of the men of the NW, the organization he is supposed to lead.

 

Imagine if Daeron the Good after all the compromises he made to allow Dorne to the realm  (which already made him unpopular in warmongering circles) decided to conquer the Stepstones with soldiers from the Reach and the Stormlands (the regions that suffered the most in Daeron's wars) and gift it to the Dornish.

What do you think how much of the realm would have rebelled? That's essentially what's Jon was doing.

Edited May 2, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Curled Finger]

Just now, Nevets said:

Jon did nothing to help Arya until it appeared she had escaped on her own.  We know from his thoughts that he felt that as long as she was in Bolton hands, he wasn't in a position to help her and she was on her own.  Marsh obviously wouldn't have tried to help her, but he has no real reason to do so.

Jon didn't want Mance executed, but because he felt Mance was useful, not because he thought it was immoral.

I have no idea what Marsh would do about the demanded hostages.  Given Ramsay's bragging about torturing people, I suspect he might have simply ordered them to leave.

I think Marsh wants to do as the Crown demands not because it is right necessarily, but because he is afraid of what might happen otherwise.  If the Crown, or its local representative, wishes, they could do great harm to the Night's Watch.

Does Jon actually know Ramsay's reputation prior to receiving the Pink Letter?  Does anyone at the remote Castle Black?  

As I recall, Mance was executed in the most humane way possible by Jon himself.  In that only Jon and Melisandre know that Mance survived that execution, the letter sounds to be simple madness.  Mention of the spearwives may ring true, but Mance?  I don't think anyone else knows he's alive.  

Ah, now the hostages is a great point.  Supposing Marsh isn't killed on the spot and actually takes power at the Wall.  Will he attempt to give them over?  How much peace will he or his faction attempt to buy with Winterfell if the Boltons remain in power?  While Marsh and his funky bunch may believe they can buy peace we know the Boltons.  Ramsay is not a reasonable dude.  They can give him Jon's body and all the women + Shireen and Ramsay will not be satisfied.   He wants his Reek and his bride, who are not at Castle Black.  My faith in Ramsay says he would simply kill what party goes to treat with him and take what he gets, maybe flay Jon's body and go home.  Perhaps you see a more likely scenario?  

My biggest problem with an attack on the Wall is that it is fairly well manned now even if there is not a lot of great weaponry available.   If all 3000 or so folks just rained rocks on an attacking party I think a point would still be made against a couple hundred Bolton men.  Provided of course, those 3000 or so could be rallied in time.  I think the Wildlings would protect their homes, even if those homes are decrepit castles.  And I think Jon Snow has made a difference in their lives, for all that's worth.  

[csuszka1948]

18 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The Boltons didn't need to be told Stannis was on his way.  He wasn't exactly hiding his movements after Deepwood Motte, nor was he going fast enough to achieve surprise.  Jon did advise not attacking the Dreadfort, sensing a trap, but I suspect Marsh would have done the same, on the basis that it is the Bolton seat.

I have no idea what Marsh would do about the demanded hostages.  Given Ramsay's bragging about torturing people, I suspect he might have simply ordered them to leave.

I think Marsh wants to do as the Crown demands not because it is right necessarily, but because he is afraid of what might happen otherwise.  If the Crown, or its local representative, wishes, they could do great harm to the Night's Watch.

 

I think you are a bit overselling Marsh, he is usually a coward (his attempt at killing Jon was an exception). He wouldn't have given any advice to Stannis at all, would have tried to distance himself from him to earn the goodwill of the crown and possibly even kick out Selyse and the Queen's Men from Castle Black once Stannis is far enough.

[Daeron the Daring]

8 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Does Jon actually know Ramsay's reputation prior to receiving the Pink Letter?

I'm not in the time to pull up quotes, but it's pretty widespread (and fairly early) knowledge what Ramsay did to Lady Hornwood.  Considering Jon is trying to rescue Arya from his 'captivity', he must know this. If he wasn't aware, she wouldn't need rescuing.

[SeanF]

24 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Does Jon actually know Ramsay's reputation prior to receiving the Pink Letter?  Does anyone at the remote Castle Black?  

 

Ramsay's reputation is known across the North.  "A beast in human form" is how Lord Manderly describes him.  His hunts, his treatment of Lady Hornwood, and his fondness for flaying are notorious.

As for Marsh, he'd hand over anybody to curry favour with the Boltons.  Ramsay would say "jump" and he would reply "how high?"

Edited May 2, 2023 by SeanF

[Curled Finger]

49 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

I'm not in the time to pull up quotes, but it's pretty widespread (and fairly early) knowledge what Ramsay did to Lady Hornwood.  Considering Jon is trying to rescue Arya from his 'captivity', he must know this. If he wasn't aware, she wouldn't need rescuing.

Right.  But wouldn't the Hornwood incident alone have caused Jon to get to Arya much sooner than the letter?  Seems to me her escape from Ramsay would have given Jon some relief, not a mad dash to save her.  It's not like Jon's expecting an 11 year old, fierce though she may be, to protect herself from a fate worse than Lady Horwood's or anything else he may have heard of Ramsay's doings.   This is where I think Jon doesn't know what Ramsay is or hasn't heard the rumors or doesn't believe them?  This letter clearly pushed him over the edge.  

I am interested in your quotes when you do have time, or just your thoughts on the matter.