Jon’s only failure as Lord Commander

[SeanF]

21 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, the 400 are at CB, not the NW. The NW has fewer than 1,000 men all told. 
 

AGoT, Tyrion III

"I am touched by your concern, Lord Mormont." The strong drink was making Tyrion light-headed, but not so drunk that he did not realize that the Old Bear wanted something from him. "I hope I can repay your kindness."

"You can," Mormont said bluntly. "Your sister sits beside the king. Your brother is a great knight, and your father the most powerful lord in the Seven Kingdoms. Speak to them for us. Tell them of our need here. You have seen for yourself, my lord. The Night's Watch is dying. Our strength is less than a thousand now. Six hundred here, two hundred in the Shadow Tower, even fewer at Eastwatch, and a scant third of those fighting men. The Wall is a hundred leagues long. Think on that. Should an attack come, I have three men to defend each mile of wall."

ADwD, Jon III

“Jon watched unblinking. He dare not appear squeamish before his brothers. He had ordered out two hundred men, more than half the garrison of Castle Black. ”

And just to clarify my previous post… I don’t think Marsh had the support of the majority of the black brothers before the free folk crossed. So even counting only these ~ 400 men, I believe the majority would support Jon if they saw themselves in a situation where they had to pick Jon or Marsh. The men, from what we’ve seen, don’t have much respect for Marsh and most don’t support him - and who can blame them? He’s a classist, homophobic, xenophobic, racist arsehole. IMO. 
But now that 3,000+ free folk are on the south side, it looks even worse for Marsh. Yes, many are scattered along the Wall at different castles. But their leaders were almost all in the Shieldhall, Morna is arriving, etc. 

 

Yeh, Bowen is a racist arsehole, a craven who would crawl up Ramsay's colon if he was commanded to.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Jon sucked at leadership. He was the worst commander since the Night’s King.  

[Craving Peaches]

12 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon sucked at leadership. He was the worst commander since the Night’s King.  

Even though there were LCs who tried to become King Beyond the Wall, make leadership of the Watch hereditary, failed to notice a Wildling Army crossing etc? Of course I already said this and it has been ignored.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Curled Finger]

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But now that 3,000+ free folk are on the south side, it looks even worse for Marsh. Yes, many are scattered along the Wall at different castles. But their leaders were almost all in the Shieldhall, 

 

The Shieldhall.  It all goes right back there, doesn't it?  All this talk of plots and conspiracy and I often wonder if it wasn't events in the Shieldhall, not just Jon declaring his intentions, but the overwhelming support for his intentions that really sent Marsh into a frenzy to act immediately.   The tears and ritualism of the stabbing seemed so utterly desperate to me. 

 

Pardon all errors I can't find my glasses anywhere.  Your guess is as good as mine as to what I've typed!   

[Hugorfonics]

The freefolk hold the majority in CB. The Nightswatch hold their children. The Queen's Men hold the steel. 

It's like one of Varys' riddles

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

The freefolk hold the majority in CB. The Nightswatch hold their children. The Queen's Men hold the steel. 

It's like one of Varys' riddles

The QM are like, 8 has beens or worse, “never were”. That’s why Stannis left them there. I don’t think they count for much of anything. Actually, 7 since Patrek has been Wun Wun’d.
 

“He could hear the faint murmur of voices coming from outside, although the sound was too weak to make out words. They sound a thousand leagues away. It was Lady Melisandre and her followers at their nightfire. Every night at dusk the red woman led her followers in their twilight prayer, asking her red god to see them through the dark. For the night is dark and full of terrors. With Stannis and most of the queen’s men gone, her flock was much diminished; half a hundred of the free folk up from Mole’s Town, the handful of guards the king had left her, perhaps a dozen black brothers who had taken her red god for their own.”

 

[Hugorfonics]

9 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The QM are like, 8 has beens or worse, “never were”. That’s why Stannis left them there. I don’t think they count for much of anything. Actually, 7 since Patrek has been Wun Wun’d.
 

“He could hear the faint murmur of voices coming from outside, although the sound was too weak to make out words. They sound a thousand leagues away. It was Lady Melisandre and her followers at their nightfire. Every night at dusk the red woman led her followers in their twilight prayer, asking her red god to see them through the dark. For the night is dark and full of terrors. With Stannis and most of the queen’s men gone, her flock was much diminished; half a hundred of the free folk up from Mole’s Town, the handful of guards the king had left her, perhaps a dozen black brothers who had taken her red god for their own.”

 

More like 50. Or 49 if you wish.

These has beens are veteran warriors, probably the toughest in Westeros, having just come out of a victory over thousands including giants and magicians

 

.

Queen Selyse descended upon Castle Black with her daughter and her daughter's fool, her serving girls and lady companions, and a retinue of knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong.

[LongRider]

@Curled Finger  About Mance Raydar,  he is mentioned in SOS, Tyrion III

(Tyrion speaking) The rest we can send to Marsh. The Watch is grievously under strength. If the Wall should fail . . ."

". . . the wildlings will flood the north," his father finished, "and the Starks and Greyjoys will have another enemy to contend with. They no longer wish to be subject to the Iron Throne, it would seem, so by what right do they look to the Iron Throne for aid? King Robb and King Balon both claim the north. Let them defend it, if they can. And if not, this Mance Rayder might even prove a useful ally." Lord Tywin looked to his brother. "Is there more?"

This is in a small council meeting, Mance is famous he's known by name in KL!

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by LongRider

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

More like 50. Or 49 if you wish.

These has beens are veteran warriors, probably the toughest in Westeros, having just come out of a victory over thousands including giants and magicians

 

No, they’re not. The ones who maybe came closer to this description went w/ Stannis. The ones who arrive w/ Selyse are not very impressive at all. 

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

.

Queen Selyse descended upon Castle Black with her daughter and her daughter's fool, her serving girls and lady companions, and a retinue of knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong.

Yeah, it was hyperbole. Not 7, 49. Still outnumbered by the crows and the free folk. 

[Hugorfonics]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, they’re not. The ones who maybe came closer to this description went w/ Stannis. The ones who arrive w/ Selyse are not very impressive at all. 

Stannis isn't going to leave his wife in the hands of scrubs. 

They do look like scrubs, and act like scrubs. But so are the ones hanging with Ahsa. Point is, they don't fight like scrubs.

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, it was hyperbole. Not 7, 49. Still outnumbered by the crows and the free folk. 

They were outnumbered when fighting Mance, when they were in battle position. And not starving and negotiating with murderers over their children 

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis isn't going to leave his wife in the hands of scrubs. 

They do look like scrubs, and act like scrubs. But so are the ones hanging with Ahsa. Point is, they don't fight like scrubs.

They were outnumbered when fighting Mance, when they were in battle position. And not starving and negotiating with murderers over their children 

You seem to have an awful lot of confidence in them, I don’t share it. 
They didn’t fight Mance’s host by themselves, the other QM and the KM were there as well. 

[LongRider]

10 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I submit that the only travelers Castle Black has received are the Free Folk and Mountain Clans chieftains and Stannis, direct from Dragonstone.  Why would anyone anywhere tell The Nights Watch about Ramsay's activities?  All I'm certain Jon knows about Ramsay is that he received an invitation to the wedding.  

I disagree.  If a Brother is sent South, like Yoren, or travels South like Benjen to WF for the King's visit, or Ser Thorne with the wight hand, they are debriefed with the LC about their journey on their return. This is standard military protocol.  The debriefing would bring forward many types of intelligence and information on what is happening in the South.  Cotter Pyke is visited by seafaring merchants and writes to CB about them, spreading more information that way. 

Also, we learn that Bowen is exchanging letters with Tywin, and Tywin mentions Marsh in a small council meeting.   Maester Aemon receives letters from the South as well.  Then the new recruits make friends and tell stories and gossip and again, spread information.  I think that new recruits from the North could have some gossip and knowledge about the Bolton's, including Ramsay's 'escapades.'  Even the residents of Moletown may add to the mix.

Yes, the Watch is isolated, but not completely out of touch. 

[Hugorfonics]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

You seem to have an awful lot of confidence in them, I don’t share it. 

I have confidence in steel. Knights and such. (They stood tall against Renly, survived BW, and defeated a force decisively ten times it's force. They are the real deal)

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

They didn’t fight Mance’s host by themselves, the other QM and the KM were there as well. 

No doubt but Mances host was commanded by the Weeper, Lord of Bones and Sixskins, who aren't there either

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

The freefolk hold the majority in CB. The Nightswatch hold their children. The Queen's Men hold the steel. 

It's like one of Varys' riddles

And Bowen counted their wealth.  

[sifth]

5 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon sucked at leadership. He was the worst commander since the Night’s King.  

Your turn to pretend Jon Snow is the devil I see.

[Hugorfonics]

25 minutes ago, LongRider said:

And Bowen counted their wealth.  

Yea definitely. Very convoluted. Lots of parties with one shared goal (the others) and all holding some type of leverage over the other. (But not the others). And yet are a breath away from an all around massacre, involving yes the snake Bowen, but also all the noble wildling babies and the queen of the seven kingdoms.

Cooler heads will prevail imo

[LongRider]

39 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

You seem to have an awful lot of confidence in them, I don’t share it. 
They didn’t fight Mance’s host by themselves, the other QM and the KM were there as well. 

And Ser Patrek proved that he at least, was short on brains, even before Wun Wun smashed them out. 

[James West]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:21 AM, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

Jon is clearly the greatest leader humanity has against the Others.

 It was meant as a joke.  Right?  Jon was a terrible lord commander.  Mild-mannered, reasonable Bowen Marsh was pushed to the limits by Jon's incompetence.  

[Curled Finger]

11 hours ago, LongRider said:

I disagree.  If a Brother is sent South, like Yoren, or travels South like Benjen to WF for the King's visit, or Ser Thorne with the wight hand, they are debriefed with the LC about their journey on their return. This is standard military protocol.  The debriefing would bring forward many types of intelligence and information on what is happening in the South.  Cotter Pyke is visited by seafaring merchants and writes to CB about them, spreading more information that way. 

Also, we learn that Bowen is exchanging letters with Tywin, and Tywin mentions Marsh in a small council meeting.   Maester Aemon receives letters from the South as well.  Then the new recruits make friends and tell stories and gossip and again, spread information.  I think that new recruits from the North could have some gossip and knowledge about the Bolton's, including Ramsay's 'escapades.'  Even the residents of Moletown may add to the mix.

Yes, the Watch is isolated, but not completely out of touch. 

Sure.  I forgot to add Alys Karstark to my list of visitors.  When was the last time anyone went south to collect souls?  LR, you aren't wrong.  All I am trying to get at is the depletion of men at the Wall who are trained in reading and recruiting.  Castle Black is the end of the world even in the North.  For all I know, Clydas runs classifieds in the Shade of the Evening Post.  Marsh exchanging letters with Tywin is a big deal.  Tywin's been dead quite a while now and I'm not sure why Tywin would tell anyone what an asshole Ramsay is.  I do get where Ramsay's escapades could be used as PR, but Roose does not work that way.  He wants that quiet land bit.  Ramsay's escapades don't make anyone look good.  It's not like The Mountain That Ride's campaigns of terror where a small army runs total devastation on an area.  Ramsay is more like mail box bomb.  

As has been textually proven, Jon does know some of Ramsay's reputation.  I  adamantly choose not to believe the very worst of it because I just can't believe he would leave his favorite person in the world to suffer those fates.   It is my position that the letter is the catalyst for waking Jon to the real danger Ramsay poses.  This is a sort of heard it rumor versus confirmed sighting thing.  I don't think this waking deal was simply for Arya or Winterfell, it was for all the people Jon has sworn to protect and keep.  He's not just in charge of the Wall now.  He's got Stannis' people to look out for and so many Free Folk he has to protect, not the mention the men he considers his brothers now.   I imagine those spearwives are as important as Mance to Jon.  

Earlier in the topic a few people commented that Jon may have had a plan for intercepting Arya in her escape.  Not a thing I've ever considered really.  Turning that idea over I wonder what sort of plan Jon might have had?  How many people planned to join him on his ride to Winterfell?  There was a plan.  I just wonder what it was exactly.  

Edited May 3, 2023 by Curled Finger
glasses still missing

[LongRider]

 

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

 It is my position that the letter is the catalyst for waking Jon to the real danger Ramsay poses.  This is a sort of heard it rumor versus confirmed sighting thing.

This is a great point!

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Earlier in the topic a few people commented that Jon may have had a plan for intercepting Arya in her escape.  Not a thing I've ever considered really.  Turning that idea over I wonder what sort of plan Jon might have had?  How many people planned to join him on his ride to Winterfell?  There was a plan.  I just wonder what it was exactly.  

That's a good question as obviously, he wasn't going to take 3000 freefolk with him.  

 

Hope you find your glasses today!