US Politics: Be Careful Out There

[TrackerNeil]

29 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

This would be a much better example of how Dems do not know how to play hardball and control the message. 

This is disappointing, to be sure, and yet maybe not unwise. Republicans have been monkeying around with the debt ceiling for a decade now, but the previous two or three times they had a Speaker who could be relied upon not to crash the economy. I'm not so sure that's true any more; Kevin McCarthy is so desperate to keep his job that I think it's entirely possible he'd let the nation sink into a depression rather than risk being ousted. That, combined with a crazier-than-ever GOP caucus, makes me think default is not only possible but perhaps likely.

I say with zero hyperbole that the Republican Party is an existential threat to this nation.

[Kalbear]

Just now, TrackerNeil said:

This is disappointing, to be sure, and yet maybe not unwise. Republicans have been monkeying around with the debt ceiling for a decade now, but the previous two or three times they had a Speaker who could be relied upon not to crash the economy. I'm not so sure that's true any more; Kevin McCarthy is so desperate to keep his job that I think it's entirely possible he'd let the nation sink into a depression rather than risk being ousted. That, combined with a crazier-than-ever GOP caucus, makes me think default is not only possible but perhaps likely.

I say with zero hyperbole that the Republican Party is an existential threat to this nation.

You may be right, but this almost certainly will encourage this behavior in the future. Republicans will now know more than ever that if they act recklessly and have the reputation of absolute suicide bombers that they will get what they want, and suffer zero consequences for it.

Is that better than the alternative? I honestly don't know. I guess the only thing I would hope for is that Dems would use this as an example of their getting concessions for doing the bare minimum to run the government, but I doubt they would do that - and I doubt Republicans would even believe they would. 

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

Yeah c'mon the standard antisemitic dog whistle that invokes Soros is "Soros funded globalists"

If the left wants to disqualify Collins for years ago referring to Soros as a "foreign-born, left-wing guy who essentially wants to change the nature of this country" - all of which, btw, is technically true, it's just there's absolutely nothing wrong with that - then they should also be disqualifying Ilhan Omar.

[TrackerNeil]

1 minute ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

You may be right, but this almost certainly will encourage this behavior in the future. Republicans will now know more than ever that if they act recklessly and have the reputation of absolute suicide bombers that they will get what they want, and suffer zero consequences for it.

Is that better than the alternative? I honestly don't know. I guess the only thing I would hope for is that Dems would use this as an example of their getting concessions for doing the bare minimum to run the government, but I doubt they would do that - and I doubt Republicans would even believe they would. 

Part of this is that the last two times the Democrats were in power, they neglected to remove the debt ceiling entirely, thus leaving a loaded gun right where Republicans could get at it. Maybe they'll learn from this for the next time, maybe not. Of course, that means modifying or abolishing the filibuster, but to be honest I think the filibuster is history the next time Republicans take over DC. I don't think they're going to let Democrats filibuster a national abortion ban.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

So?

The orange gargoyle has a hardcore following. Not just people on this board, who apparently need to buy a cock, probably for lack of one. Capitalism.

The Democrat's base is decisively less enthused by Biden running.

 

Which isn't great unless Biden is running against Trump, and even then it seems like a lot of people have forgotten how horrible he is/was and every Republican wants to be him. And they will almost all bow to the idiot base they've created. 

28 minutes ago, DMC said:

I dunno.  Raising the specter of Soros and "open borders" with the Syrian refugees is certainly fear-mongering, agreed.  But as an anti-semitic dogwhistle it's pretty opaque.

No. And as a friend, I'm asking you not to fight this one. It's clear as day. Drag me for my Tatum takes all you want in the NBA thread, but here you're wrong. Soros is used as a euphemism for Jews controlling the world and every version of it for centuries. And the glimmer in their eye when they quickly bring it up tells you everything you need to know. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

No. And as a friend, I'm asking you not to fight this one.

I'm not going to "fight" anyone.  I just don't think that clip makes Collins an antisemite any more than Omar's statements made her one.  You're obviously free to disagree.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Which isn't great unless Biden is running against Trump, and even then it seems like a lot of people have forgotten how horrible he is/was and every Republican wants to be him. And they will almost all bow to the idiot base they've created. 

?!

What's your point here?

You: Even less people want Biden to run than the orange gargoyle.

Me: So what? The orange one has line of hardcore followers, who will cheer him on regardless, while Democrats are less enthused about Biden

You: Which isn't great unless he runs against the orange gargoyle.

[DMC]

On the debt-ceiling "negotiations," I'd take a wait-and-see approach.  Definitely not an encouraging sign but I think the WH was scared about public perception.  Obama did negotiate in 2011, and while it was frustrating, it obviously did not fundamentally change the landscape of future negotiations.

[TrackerNeil]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Which isn't great unless Biden is running against Trump, and even then it seems like a lot of people have forgotten how horrible he is/was and every Republican wants to be him. And they will almost all bow to the idiot base they've created. 

I don't know about that. Trump was never a beloved president, was one of a select few incumbents to lose reelection, and, to the best of my knowledge, was the only presidential candidate to lose the popular vote twice. Add on the fact that The Donald repeatedly reminds Americans why they dislike him and I think you've got a candidate perfectly poised to lose to Joe Biden. Sure, Biden's approvals aren't great, but then he's not running against anyone; he's running against a guy Americans just don't like and never did. If I were Uncle Joe, I'd feel pretty good about that matchup.

(Caveat: This assumes Trump becomes the nominee and isn't either dead or in prison. I am not predicting either one.)

[Larry of the Lawn]

20 minutes ago, DMC said:

If the left wants to disqualify Collins for years ago referring to Soros as a "foreign-born, left-wing guy who essentially wants to change the nature of this country" - all of which, btw, is technically true, it's just there's absolutely nothing wrong with that - then they should also be disqualifying Ilhan Omar.

I personally don't even know who Collins is and don't care, I've just seen the "Soros-funded globalists" phrase chucked around by right wing freaks on Twitter for years.  

[Zorral]

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

disqualify Collins for years ago referring to Soros as a "foreign-born

As she's only 31, it can't have been 'years ago,' technically speaking,' can it?  I dunno.  I never heard of her until this week.  Not a cable noose or social media person.  Here is my entire social media, to speak! 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm not going to "fight" anyone.  I just don't think that clip makes Collins an antisemite any more than Omar's statements made her one.  You're obviously free to disagree.

Because of how quickly and randomly she brought it up. We all know what she's doing.

Omar has a complicated history. I don't think she's anti-Semitic, but I also don't think she gives two shits about the Jewish community and if every Jew in Israel was banished, she'd shrug, at best. However, she represents a district with a lot of Jewish people in it so she needs to pander. A lot of people in the Jewish community here hated Keith. I worked with him and defended him. He had some other problems, but this wasn't one that bothered me too much. Frankly I found him to be quite kind and he was aware that this was an imagine problem for him that he wanted to nuke and I believe he was sincere. Ilhan, Idk, but I try to see the best in people who appear to be doing good things. No one is perfect.

16 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

You: Which isn't great unless he runs against the orange gargoyle.

I don't think the orange gargoyle is going to win. He has his supporters, but pretty much everyone else can see it's time to take the keys from grandpa. When you can't even tell the difference between your es-wife and a woman accusing you of rape, there's zero defense for still supporting that. The clip will get a lot of play. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

As she's only 31, it can't have been 'years ago,' technically speaking,' can it?  I dunno.

Based on the context of that conversation I strongly suspect that clip is from 2015.  Which, ya know, was 8 years ago.

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Ilhan, Idk, but I try to see the best in people who appear to be doing good things. No one is perfect.

Yeah my point is the left is willing to do so for Omar - which they should! - but weaponize very similar comments from Collins simply because of who she worked for.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I don't know about that. Trump was never a beloved president, was one of a select few incumbents to lose reelection, and, to the best of my knowledge, was the only presidential candidate to lose the popular vote twice. Add on the fact that The Donald repeatedly reminds Americans why they dislike him and I think you've got a candidate perfectly poised to lose to Joe Biden. Sure, Biden's approvals aren't great, but then he's not running against anyone; he's running against a guy Americans just don't like and never did. If I were Uncle Joe, I'd feel pretty good about that matchup.

(Caveat: This assumes Trump becomes the nominee and isn't either dead or in prison. I am not predicting either one.)

I agree. Except that Americans are dumb, forget recent history very quickly and might feel like the economy hasn't been amazing sauce under Biden. So they may do something incredibly stupid. Wouldn't be the first time. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Based on the context of that conversation I strongly suspect that clip is from 2015.  Which, ya know, was 8 years ago.

Yeah my point is the left is willing to do so for Omar - which they should! - but weaponize very similar comments from Collins simply because of who she worked for.

When you take from the devil you pay your debts. Did you learn nothing from Homer eating the last piece of the donut? 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

When you take from the devil you pay your debts. Did you learn nothing from Homer eating the last piece of the donut? 

Nonsensical platitudes/references.  

[TrackerNeil]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I agree. Except that Americans are dumb, forget recent history very quickly and might feel like the economy hasn't been amazing sauce under Biden. So they may do something incredibly stupid. Wouldn't be the first time. 

I think Sarah Palin's main problem, back in '08, was that she was just a little too early for the GOP. Nowadays, she looks tame next to the likes of Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Kari Lake. With one major party a rogues' gallery of the incompetent, the disloyal, and the outright destructive, I agree that Americans are now always one iota away from electing Trump or someone worse.

[Gaston de Foix]

2 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I found this somewhat heartening. Perhaps there was a bit of a "Dean Scream" effect for the fascist cheering at the town hall. The perspective from the crowd itself was a bit different from what we saw and heard, at least more divided.

https://www.salon.com/2023/05/12/cnn-told-town-hall-audience-they-could-applaud-but-not-boo-report/

Yeah, this.  The CNN camera person did a terrible job of actually showing audience reaction beyond a few frames of applause but even from the clips you could see a lot of people were sitting silent.   

[Gaston de Foix]

54 minutes ago, DMC said:

If the left wants to disqualify Collins for years ago referring to Soros as a "foreign-born, left-wing guy who essentially wants to change the nature of this country" - all of which, btw, is technically true, it's just there's absolutely nothing wrong with that - then they should also be disqualifying Ilhan Omar.

FWIW, I agree with DMC that Collins should not be called an anti-semite for saying dumb stuff.  

But I don't think the bolded part is true.  Soros has spent his lifetime trying to persuade countries around the world to adopt Popper's vision of an open society.  His desire to reform the criminal justice system or what-have-you does not amount to trying to change the nature of this country. 

In fact, Soros admires Popper's vision of an open society, and has tried to encourage more countries to adopt it (including his own native Hungary, with scant success it must be said).

Edited May 12, 2023 by Gaston de Foix

[mormont]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I agree. Except that Americans are dumb, forget recent history very quickly and might feel like the economy hasn't been amazing sauce under Biden. So they may do something incredibly stupid. Wouldn't be the first time. 

The issue there is that Trump has not forgotten and will not let anyone else forget recent history.

Apart from the grift, the main reason he's running is to literally relitigate the last election. I'm neither American nor in the US, but from what I read, once you take out the diehards, even voters who might give Trump a second chance are put off by that.