US Politics: Be Careful Out There

[DMC]

19 minutes ago, Zorral said:

And here was this cable clown (was the show on cable?  never having seen it, or ever having cable or even broadcast tv, or even a tv, I wouldn't know)

Pretty sure it was on NBC.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

He lost because of covid/his response to it.  If covid didn't happen, he very likely still would have lost.  The 2022 results in Arizona and Warnock being reelected strongly support that counterfactual.

Anyway, totally agree that we can't rely on low turnout from Trump supporters but rather have to beat him by turning out more.

Maybe! The results were pretty close in other states, and 2022 not having Trump on the ballot directly also hurts that counterfactual. Another important point here is that in spite of all of that covid stuff Trump still got more votes than anyone else not named Biden in any election, ever. His approval, while low, is almost identical now to when be left office - even with the insurrection and the law suits and everything else. The magical thinking is not that he can't lose followers - it's that despite all evidence to the contrary he will lose followers, especially over something like perceived old age or weakness.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Another important point here is that in spite of all of that covid stuff Trump still got more votes than anyone else not named Biden in any election, ever.

Sure, but this is getting into mcbigski territory.  Yes, he's not going to lose his supporters.  But by the same token he's not going to persuade the decided majority/plurality that do not want him to be president.  The composition of the electorate may look different than 2020 due to its unique nature, but it's incredibly unlikely to look better for him than it did in 2022.

Good time to emphasize that Trump is the biggest loser in the history of presidents.  Smart Republicans know this - Todd Young just outright stated it.  He does have an advantage in that Biden, too, is a weak president in terms of approval, but unless the economy tanks or there's a huge scandal Trump is objectively a very weak nominee.  That being said, not sure DeSantis is much better...but if I were a crazy Republican I'd rely on the latter to highlight the age thing, which does have traction with swing voters.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

20 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

I think Sarah Palin's main problem, back in '08, was that she was just a little too early for the GOP. Nowadays, she looks tame next to the likes of Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Kari Lake. With one major party a rogues' gallery of the incompetent, the disloyal, and the outright destructive, I agree that Americans are now always one iota away from electing Trump or someone worse.

Isn't it crazy to think that Palin was ahead of her time. Usually we say that as a compliment. 

[TrackerNeil]

1 hour ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Donald Trump doesn't have magical.powers, but you are fooling yourself if you think his supporters are going to leave him because he sounds a bit weaker than before.

Who said that? But Trump needs more than MAGA to get to the White House, and I am not sure he'll get it in 2024.

[DMC]

Texts Show Tucker Carlson Wanted to Intimidate Fox Staffers Over Election Coverage: ‘I’m Happy to Start Threatening People Individually’:

Quote

Wells regarded the article as an affront to Fox readers and viewers.

“Literally 4-5 separate swipes at Trump for doing the Turkey pardon,’” Wells wrote to Carlson. “’It’s actually unbelievable. We’re trying to piss people off for no reason.'”

“We’re not going to succeed if this continues,” Carlson replied. “The brand will be too damaged. We should jump on a couple of examples just to send a clear message. Let’s start with this one. Can we find out who did this?”

For good measure, the top-rated cable news host made it clear he was willing to intimidate low-level Fox employees.

“I’m happy to start threatening people individually,” he added. “It’s too much. And again, it will hurt us badly if we let it continue.”

Gotta say, I've met Tucker Carlson, and I've laughed in his face.  If that little piece of shit tried to threaten me I'd laugh in his face again.  Then when I got fired, I'd be proud to put that on my CV.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Pretty sure it was on NBC.

Which means EVERYBODY saw it.  My stepfamily just loved those shows.  I would visit after the deaths of my parents, and every night with tv trays they sat watching and eating.  I couldn't figure out what the hell was going on -- being a complete television blank slate after leaving high school. Their explanations didn't make any sense either.

[Zorral]

57 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

sn't it crazy to think that Palin was ahead of her time. Usually we say that as a compliment. 

While, also, McCain proved himself senile, an idiot and / or lazy sob.

[Gaston de Foix]

4 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

I'm not sure I agree. Clearly, lots of Americans cared about Donald Trump's failings--record numbers of Americans turned out in 2020 to see him to the door. 

I think Trump's shocking 2016 victory has deranged us all in some way, making both his allies and his enemies think he had some magical power over voters. I thought so, too! He didn't then, though, and he doesn't now. Donald Trump was elected in a pretty flukey way, losing the popular vote by a wide margin and winning only because of the eccentricities of the Electoral College. He governed badly, never cracked 50% approval (according to Gallup), was constantly enmeshed in scandal, was impeached twice, and failed to be reelected. Donald Trump has no magic; he has luck, plus the audacity native to so many rich men, who believe (with a good deal of justification) that if they simply talk fast and bulldoze their opponents that Americans will let them get away with anything. 

Counting down to DMC dismissal: three...two...one...

Yeah, except that with an abysmal track record in office he increased his vote share in 2020.  I really struggle to understand how 82 million Americans, the majority of whom I am sure are decent and honorable, voted to re-elect him.  

If a Democrat with his record ran for re-election he would be taking incoming every single day for his failures in office, for his broken promises.  He probably wouldn't even run. 

Think about the counterfactual of a Joe Biden who got nothing done legislatively because of Republican obstruction (which, tbh, is what I expected).  He's probably stepping down right?

 There's magic, it's just not winning magic.  For which gratias tibi ago domine.  

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Sure, but this is getting into mcbigski territory.  Yes, he's not going to lose his supporters.  But by the same token he's not going to persuade the decided majority/plurality that do not want him to be president.  The composition of the electorate may look different than 2020 due to its unique nature, but it's incredibly unlikely to look better for him than it did in 2022.

If the deciding issue in the 2024 election is whether you love or loath DJT, I agree. 

But if the economy truly sucks, do you think voters will disregard his magical promises once more? Will Dem voters turn out? Those are the worries in my mind.   

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Yeah, except that with an abysmal track record in office he increased his vote share in 2020.  I really struggle to understand how 82 million Americans, the majority of whom I am sure are decent and honorable, voted to re-elect him.  

Er, he got 74 million votes.  And he only increased his vote share by 0.7 percent, nothing to write home about.  Especially when his opponent increased their vote share by 3.1 percent.  It's largely trivia - a facet of "libertarians" acknowledging they weren't really libertarians and voting accordingly.

2 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

But if the economy truly sucks, do you think voters will disregard his magical promises once more? Will Dem voters turn out? Those are the worries in my mind.   

I mean, voters are largely dissatisfied with the economy already.  And if the election was held today, I'm very confident Biden would still win - despite the ABC/WaPo poll the other day.  So, when I say the economy has to "tank," I mean that - as in a legit recession.  Presidents presiding over a recession always lose.

[Zorral]

What Bluesky Tells Us About the Future of Social Media
The new platform aims to be a decentralized alternative to Twitter. The vibe there is mostly like that of a Portland coffee shop.
May 12, 2023

The article describes Dorsey's aspirations for what he hopes Bluesky will become, and what it currently is, and how it operates.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-bluesky-tells-us-about-the-future-of-social-media

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Yeah, except that with an abysmal track record in office he increased his vote share in 2020.  I really struggle to understand how 82 million Americans, the majority of whom I am sure are decent and honorable, voted to re-elect him.  

To quote one of my best friends (roughly), "I understand people who have Bush '00 bumper stickers on their car. The folks with '04 ones, I'm keying their shit."

If you voted for Trump the second time around, you can kindly go fuck yourself. There's literally no defense for it. None. Zilch. Nada. Spell it in every language. 

Quote

If a Democrat with his record ran for re-election

If Obama was caught on a recording begging for a state's SoS to falsify nearly 12,000 votes, he'd already be in jail and probably be lynched. 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[TrackerNeil]

2 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Yeah, except that with an abysmal track record in office he increased his vote share in 2020.  I really struggle to understand how 82 million Americans, the majority of whom I am sure are decent and honorable, voted to re-elect him.  

I There's magic, it's just not winning magic.  For which gratias tibi ago domine.  

I don't believe in magic, certainly not in politics. What I believe is that lots of people vote their party no matter who's leading it. I do not think that Donald Trump knows something about winning general elections that the rest of us have missed; if he did, he'd be in the White House this moment, instead of crying about how he isn't.

Here's what I think Donald Trump knew that others didn't: most Republican voters don't give a shit about federalism or limited government and the rest of the stuff that gives the conservative intelligentsia a boner. Grievance politics are more than enough to win the day in a Republican primary. So The Donald simply detached the GOP hindbrain from the forebrain and exchanged the usual racist dogwhistle for a train whistle. 

Edited May 13, 2023 by TrackerNeil

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

16 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Sure, but no one cares.

Respectfully lots of people care.  We care or we wouldn’t be talking about him.  Perhaps none die hard supporters care is more what you were driving at?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

Most of all the luck to be the star of a 'reality' tv show during the Great Recession of 2008 when countless numbers of us had our livings and homes pulled out from us due to "Too Big Too Fail" bailouts by the feds.  It was the first time in decades, generations that WHITE people in very significant numbers relative to the population as a whole had that kind of financial disaster clobber them, all at the same time.  And here was this cable clown (was the show on cable?  never having seen it, or ever having cable or even broadcast tv, or even a tv, I wouldn't know) authoritarian showing how fine and easy it was for others to have the life we didn't.  People like all the stepfamily out there in ND ate this shyte up with a gallon spoon every frackin' single day.  They just flat out called me a liar when I told them his history where he lived.

In the meantime All the Media, including fb and All the Social Media breathlessly related everything about that show and him every single day, so even I knew about it and was familiar with it.  It could not be avoided.  I couldn't understand the medias doing that then and I don't understand why they are doing it now.

I have never understood Trump’s appeal.  He has always (going back to Lifestyle’s of the Rich and Famous in the 1980s) come off as a petulant self entitled vain asshole.  I don’t, and perhaps this is my failing for not being able to see it, see why that kind of personality appeals to people.  He’s aggressively anti-intellectual, he delights in his own ignorance, he’s just (to me) incredibly unpleasant…

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

Which means EVERYBODY saw it.  My stepfamily just loved those shows.  I would visit after the deaths of my parents, and every night with tv trays they sat watching and eating.  I couldn't figure out what the hell was going on -- being a complete television blank slate after leaving high school. Their explanations didn't make any sense either.

Why did people like this?  I’ve never watched more than 5 minutes of “the Apprentice”.  Was he more appealing than I understand?

[Zorral]

47 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Why did people like this?

From my posts and history you surely know I am the wrong person of whom to ask that question!  I don't even understand why people consume non-stop hyperviolent stupid movies and tv as their choice of the best entertainment and can and argues talk hours and hours about stupid comic superheroes.  

However, let me edit to add, this does explain why these ilks consider people like me 'elitist' and 'out-of-touch' with real people, and thus my reading, educated, fact-checking, immigrant, negro, queer lovin' ass should be shot as soon as possible.  Plus, as I was told from almost the moment I could talk, I used words that were too big and nobody could understand so I was showing off -- this adults to a four-year-old.  (I loved words from the beginning, and my mom, who had been a school teacher taught me the alphabet, to read and write, and had me memorize acres of nursery rhymes, songs and bible verses before I started school. My first grade teacher though, loved me,  Ha!)

Edited May 13, 2023 by Zorral

[DMC]

I know it's tempting to say "if Obama did what Trump did..."  I've engaged in that myself quite often.  But I think, in a certain way, it discounts how extraordinarily popular Obama was and is in the current polarized era.  In 2018 Gallup put his post-president approval rating at 63%. 

That's..insanely impressive in this day and age.  The country loved and still loves Obama.  Part of that is because he didn't have any major scandals or torrid circumstances other than getting us out of the GFC, but it also speaks to the fact that if he did, a lot of the country would still have his back.  Let alone the party. 

He was - by far - the best politician of our generation, and by "our generation" I mean Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials.

[Kalbear]

5 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

Who said that? But Trump needs more than MAGA to get to the White House, and I am not sure he'll get it in 2024.

He will, because Republicans fall in line. He may not get independents mind you - but the notion that he will lose supporters because tywin thinks he looks week is ridiculous.

And those independents are breaking away from Biden too. Of all the people to stay home I'd say they're more likely, and that hurts both people roughly equally where it matters.