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US Politics: Be Careful Out There


Fragile Bird
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54 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Don't sweat it. The number of white, and orange, dudes embarrassing me is so much more. 

Rich white dudes embarrassing themselves is why they made their own secret clubs.  Well, that, and the penis size.

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Neither here nor there but Bill Maher 25 years ago would absolutely hate Bill Maher today.  He still has good writers, but he himself is ensconced with his aggrieved "I hate the 'woke' people -- and fuck all young people too!"  It's pretty pathetic.

Edited by DMC
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Not reported elsewheres it seems: White Supremacists and Proud Boys marched on the Capitol yesterday with drums and shields, and wearing masks to conceal their identies.

We have this shyte along with massacres and murders of Black people every week.  When are the Dems going to get it into their heads that the war is here?

Twitter news & latest pictures from Newsweek.com

 

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

Neither here nor there but Bill Maher 25 years ago would absolutely hate Bill Maher today.  He still has good writers, but he himself is ensconced with his aggrieved "I hate the 'woke' people -- and fuck all young people too!"  It's pretty pathetic.

Real Time use to be one of the best shows on TV, even when Maher lost his fastball. It's been unwatchable for years. 

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58 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Not reported elsewheres it seems: White Supremacists and Proud Boys marched on the Capitol yesterday with drums and shields, and wearing masks to conceal their identies.

We have this shyte along with massacres and murders of Black people every week.  When are the Dems going to get it into their heads that the war is here?

Twitter news & latest pictures from Newsweek.com

 

My observation was the barely had the numbers to fill up a midsized restaurant.

 

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7 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

What evidence would you need to convince yourself that Trump has a fairly decent chance of winning?

None, for I agree that Trump has a decent chance of winning. I don't know what you consider decent, so perhaps we'd disagree on what those odds are. Still, if I were Joe Biden, I'd figure Trump is a candidate I could beat--because I already did.

Edited by TrackerNeil
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for what it be worth, trump lost the popular vote by three million in 2016 and seven (?) million in 2020. Since then, he has managed to alienate millions more at the very least and has been unable to present any sort of plan that holds up to even superficial scrutiny, instead focusing on past and present enemies to the exclusion of all else. That might not stop him from winning the nomination but barring adoption of something like the idiotic 'independent state legislature theory,' he won't be able to win.

 

That said, I am more inclined to believe that Trump's 2024 campaign is nothing but a hoax and not a serious effort to regain the presidency.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Zorral said:

Not reported elsewheres it seems: White Supremacists and Proud Boys marched on the Capitol yesterday with drums and shields, and wearing masks to conceal their identies.

We have this shyte along with massacres and murders of Black people every week.  When are the Dems going to get it into their heads that the war is here?

Twitter news & latest pictures from Newsweek.com

 

At least they are finally wearing masks in public gatherings.

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2 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

That said, I am more inclined to believe that Trump's 2024 campaign is nothing but a hoax and not a serious effort to regain the presidency.

TBF, people have said the exact same about his 2016 campaign. And we all know how 2016 turned out...

And by "people" I mean anonymous, internet dipshits like yours truly. So you can totally trust this statistical analysis.

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2 hours ago, Durckad said:

TBF, people have said the exact same about his 2016 campaign. And we all know how 2016 turned out...

And by "people" I mean anonymous, internet dipshits like yours truly. So you can totally trust this statistical analysis.

I was publicly stating - and posting here - that Clinton was in dire danger six months prior to the election.

This time, at this point, I do not see Trump winning election. He does seem to be running one fund raising scam after another.

Edited by ThinkerX
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12 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

 That might not stop him from winning the nomination but barring adoption of something like the idiotic 'independent state legislature theory,' he won't be able to win.

I have bad news for you there, buddy.  

13 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

 Still, if I were Joe Biden, I'd figure Trump is a candidate I could beat--because I already did.

The other reason is that Trump is not the best candidate to make the case against Joe Biden on the grounds of age.  In 10 years living here, I've realized Americans care mightily about the "look"  - Trump v Biden will play out differently in living rooms than RDS v Biden. 

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13 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

None, for I agree that Trump has a decent chance of winning. I don't know what you consider decent, so perhaps we'd disagree on what those odds are. Still, if I were Joe Biden, I'd figure Trump is a candidate I could beat--because I already did.

Sure! Biden can beat Trump. Compared to other candidates and his current approval Trump may be the only candidate he could beat. 

But 'could beat' is a real far cry from 'Trump would need to get lucky' or the rolling the 20 analogy, and that's what I have a problem with. Biden, right now, is a fairly weak candidate in a fairly precarious position - one that is very similar to the position Trump was in at the same time, and one that I was assured by several people meant Trump was almost certain to lose from. The notion that Trump needs to get lucky there when Biden is underwater with independents and has lost a lot of approval from Dems (who are notoriously fickle when it comes to voting turnout) doesn't seem reasonable to me. It seems complacent.

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20 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Biden, right now, is a fairly weak candidate in a fairly precarious position

I cannot name a declared or likely candidate for President that this hasn't been said about. And I would bet serious cash money that any of the other declared or likely candidates would give their left arm to be in Biden's 'precarious' position.

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18 hours ago, Zorral said:

Not reported elsewheres it seems: White Supremacists and Proud Boys marched on the Capitol yesterday with drums and shields, and wearing masks to conceal their identies.

We have this shyte along with massacres and murders of Black people every week.  When are the Dems going to get it into their heads that the war is here?

Twitter news & latest pictures from Newsweek.com

 

It's no coincidence that this uh, happened during Police Week.

https://www.policeweek.org/schedule.html

Super cute that they have an event area called Tent City in a city that saw homelessness jump this year.

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/05/11/dc-homeless-count-how-many

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2 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

The other reason is that Trump is not the best candidate to make the case against Joe Biden on the grounds of age.  In 10 years living here, I've realized Americans care mightily about the "look"  - Trump v Biden will play out differently in living rooms than RDS v Biden. 

I'm never clear on just how important Biden's age is to Americans. I mean, it's not as if voters in 2020 were unaware of how old Uncle Joe is, yet he still garnered a tremendous amount of support. Perhaps that's due to him not being Trump--possible!--but it could also be that Biden a) staked out a good position in the Democrat Party; b) appears competent and rational.

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

I cannot name a declared or likely candidate for President that this hasn't been said about. And I would bet serious cash money that any of the other declared or likely candidates would give their left arm to be in Biden's 'precarious' position.

Obama in 2012 was not in the same boat. GWB in 2004 wasn't either. In recent memory only Trump in 2020 was this bad. It used to be the case that if you had an approval rating below 50% you would always lose your re-election; that's no longer the case due to partisanship but still somewhat holds true. 

I do think that Biden is still the best overall candidate that Dems can offer right now. But that's a pretty crap place for Dems to be. The same is probably true for Republicans and Trump, mind you - both are weak candidates and both are likely the only real possibility they have.

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8 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Has there ever been a re-run where the incumbent lost? 

Kinda? There was the weird Taft-Wilson-Roosevelt race in 2012, but I'm not sure that's what you're looking for. 

Ah - John Quincy Adams vs Andrew Jackson - Adams won the first time in 1824, Jackson in 1828. Also Van Buren vs Harrison in 1836-1840. And, of course, Cleveland who lost his second election after being in, then won the third time. 

Probably the most relevant was Nixon losing to Kennedy in 1960 and then winning in 1968.

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