US Politics: Be Careful Out There

[Gaston de Foix]

13 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I think Sarah Palin's main problem, back in '08, was that she was just a little too early for the GOP. Nowadays, she looks tame next to the likes of Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Kari Lake. With one major party a rogues' gallery of the incompetent, the disloyal, and the outright destructive, I agree that Americans are now always one iota away from electing Trump or someone worse.

She was the fore-runner for Trump as well.  Her speeches had all the right code accusing Obama of trying to change America.  

If she had not self-immolated her political career, she could have run away with the Republican nomination in 2012.  

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Gaston de Foix said:

But I don't think the bolded part is true.  Soros has spent his lifetime trying to persuade countries around the world to adopt Popper's vision of an open society.  His desire to reform the criminal justice system or what-have-you does not amount to trying to change the nature of this country. 

That's a really semantic debate.  I think Soros' efforts ARE trying to change the nature of this country, in a good way.  I understand the way Collins presented it in that clip was to try to scare people, but that's why I said it was technically true.

[Kalbear]

Yeah, changing the criminal system in the US in the way soros wants would be one of the largest changes to the country, on par with Medicare or social security or possibly the 13th amendment. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

30 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I don't think the orange gargoyle is going to win. He has his supporters, but pretty much everyone else can see it's time to take the keys from grandpa. When you can't even tell the difference between your es-wife and a woman accusing you of rape, there's zero defense for still supporting that. The clip will get a lot of play. 

So why invoke him in your opening remark.

We don't know, who the presumptive nominee for the crzay party in 2024 will be. Right now, all the other hopeless hopefuls are cowering in their caves and hope the orange gargoyle will go away all by himself. Basically, the default mode for the GOP for the past 3+ years. Well, they actually did their best for him to stick around to not piss off the batshit part of their voters.

They don't want to get outcrazied by the orange garyole in the primary, but they can't outcrazy him there either. ANd in the case of DeSatan, the wheels apparently came off his campaign before he even entered the race.

I mean, Haley is not gonna beat the gargoyle with her mini-me campaign, and nobody likes Mike Pence.

[Ormond]

57 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

No. And as a friend, I'm asking you not to fight this one. It's clear as day. Drag me for my Tatum takes all you want in the NBA thread, but here you're wrong. Soros is used as a euphemism for Jews controlling the world and every version of it for centuries. And the glimmer in their eye when they quickly bring it up tells you everything you need to know. 

I have no judgments one way or the other about what the motives are of any particular comment about Soros. I have doubt that occasionally people who make negative comments about him are trying to use an anti-Semitic "dog whistle."

But if so, I think this is stupid and unsuccessful because I don't think most of the people in the general public they are "whistling" to have any idea that Soros is Jewish.  When I first heard of him many years ago myself, I didn't bother to try to look up the derivation of his surname and guessed he was of Greek ancestry. Then when I later found out he was originally from Hungary I assumed he had non-Jewish Hungarian ancestry. I don't think it was more than two or three years ago when I read that he was Jewish. And I think most Americans are the same way -- they just think of him as a "foreign billionaire" and have no knowledge of his Jewish ethnicity. 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Ormond said:

But if so, I think this is stupid and unsuccessful because I don't think most of the people in the general public they are "whistling" to have any idea that Soros is Jewish.

Yeah based on what Collins said in that clip I don't know how you glean Soros is Jewish unless you're already aware of it.  It's much more of a "dangerous lefty" tack of fear-mongering, which transcends religion.  If anything, the "foreign-born" aspect is the most objectionable part in activating xenophobia.

[Tywin et al.]

45 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I think Sarah Palin's main problem, back in '08, was that she was just a little too early for the GOP. Nowadays, she looks tame next to the likes of Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Kari Lake. With one major party a rogues' gallery of the incompetent, the disloyal, and the outright destructive, I agree that Americans are now always one iota away from electing Trump or someone worse.

Palin wasn't the first test pilot, but she was certainly one of the most dangerous. McCain by all accounts I've read was horrified by her once he got to know her. 

But yeah, never underestimate the American public's ability to vote for someone who is an awful person and not trying to even hide it.

35 minutes ago, mormont said:

The issue there is that Trump has not forgotten and will not let anyone else forget recent history.

Apart from the grift, the main reason he's running is to literally relitigate the last election. I'm neither American nor in the US, but from what I read, once you take out the diehards, even voters who might give Trump a second chance are put off by that.

Watch what happens if the economy dips, even by just a modest amount. 

[Tywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I mean, Haley is not gonna beat the gargoyle with her mini-me campaign, and nobody likes Mike Pence.

Sure, and DeSantis looked hot until people started realizing he was lame af. Everyone of their candidates are. Not one of them as far as I can tell is more sophisticated than Rubiot 9000, just way more hateful.

26 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I have no judgments one way or the other about what the motives are of any particular comment about Soros. I have doubt that occasionally people who make negative comments about him are trying to use an anti-Semitic "dog whistle."

But if so, I think this is stupid and unsuccessful because I don't think most of the people in the general public they are "whistling" to have any idea that Soros is Jewish.  When I first heard of him many years ago myself, I didn't bother to try to look up the derivation of his surname and guessed he was of Greek ancestry. Then when I later found out he was originally from Hungary I assumed he had non-Jewish Hungarian ancestry. I don't think it was more than two or three years ago when I read that he was Jewish. And I think most Americans are the same way -- they just think of him as a "foreign billionaire" and have no knowledge of his Jewish ethnicity. 

No. And you're not the target audience. I'm sure the majority of people who hear "globalist" don't really get the whistle either. But it rings loud both to the target audience and the one afraid of it. 

[DMC]

While I've voiced much skepticism about DeSantis as a national candidate, I also have to reiterate it's very foolhardy to count him out before he's even announced.  Can't help but be reminded of John McCain flying coach alone in September 2007 with a campaign running on fumes only for him to, obviously, secure the nomination only six months later.  Republican presidential primaries are extremely volatile.  Maybe Trump cruises to the nomination.  But it's still just as possible he doesn't.

[Raja]

I don't think Collins is in the bag for Trump or anything like that, but that kind of reporting she's done and the things she's said certainly makes me less likely to read stuff from her ( And I think she'll survive that )

[horangi]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

The issue there is that Trump has not forgotten and will not let anyone else forget recent history.

Apart from the grift, the main reason he's running is to literally relitigate the last election. I'm neither American nor in the US, but from what I read, once you take out the diehards, even voters who might give Trump a second chance are put off by that.

Purely anecdotal, but lurking around conservative sites, the politically active folks who actually care about policy positions, have turned pretty sour on him (not the never-trumper sites).  Its not that there arent a fair share of the election deniers among them, but rather they are disillusioned that he cant seem to get over it.  I suspect that losing the election, all the related court cases, and more recently the criminal/civil stuff is having its toll.  After all winners win, regardless of whether 'the truth' is on your side and everyone is out to get you.  Between that, the scorched earth sniping of other Republicans, and fury that he signed the pandemic stimulus laws, which for some reason were the bridge too far and make him a closet Democrat- there have been a lot of folks swearing off voting again for him.   I doubt a single one of them would be voting D in the next election and the majority that do vote for a Presidential Candidate would still vote Trump, but I could see a lot of stay at homes or voting for minor party nut XYZ. 

Now the populist cultural conservative sites- they have gone too far down the rabbit hole to care about any of this.  They really are at the Homelander vaporizing hecklers level of support.

[Kalbear]

Eh. They said even more nasty things about him during the 2016 primary. They came home to roost when it mattered. They'll almost certainly do so again, especially if Biden is running and the economy isn't doing so well. 

[DMC]

Certainly wouldn't put Trump's renomination at "almost certain."  For one thing, if he encounters the difficulty he did in 2016, that looks a whole hell of a lot different as a former president than it did then when he truly was the "outsider" or "upstart."

[Tywin et al.]

Trump also just sounds unwell and very flat footed. If someone wanted to really go at him they could probably eat his lunch. It just remains to be seen if anyone will and if it will move the base from him. A better journalist would have dragged him for a number of his answers, but the one in question seems to have been helping him. Reading a bit more about Collins' past it's pretty clear she's like the last person CNN should have ever allowed to moderate the town hall. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

You think he sounded healthy and well adjusted seven years ago?

[DMC]

One aspect to consider is it wouldn't be surprising - and he's already indicated - that Trump might not participate in any primary debates.  That probably won't hurt him directly, but it might help another candidate distinguish themselves without him on the stage.

As for a member of the political media "eating his lunch" in any form of an interview, LOL, no.  It's never had any effect and it certainly isn't going to at this point.

[TrackerNeil]

4 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Eh. They said even more nasty things about him during the 2016 primary. They came home to roost when it mattered. They'll almost certainly do so again, especially if Biden is running and the economy isn't doing so well. 

I'm not going to say Trump is a lock for the nomination, but I completely agree that if he is the nominee, all significant resistance to him in the Republican Party will vanish. I think many Republican elites want Trump sidelined, but none of them are willing to be the one who actually does the sidelining. So they'll wring their hands and get in line.

Regarding DeSantis, I am more skeptical of his chances than some. I get what lane Nikki Haley is running in, but who exactly is DeSantis' constituency? Republicans who want an obnoxious asshole but without Trump's sense of humor? DeSantis feels like Wesley Clark or Fred Thompson; good on paper, but just on paper. We'll see, I suppose.

**I personally don't find Trump funny, but obnoxious assholes seem to disagree.**
 

Edited May 13 by TrackerNeil

[DMC]

1 minute ago, TrackerNeil said:

but I completely agree that if he is the nominee, all significant resistance to him in the Republican Party will vanish.

Of course.  That's really not the point.  The point is Trump is not as inevitable as the nominee as many people seem to assume.  Is he the favorite?  Sure.  But I'd put his probability vs. the field at ~60 percent.  Which is far from almost certain.

3 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

DeSantis feels like Wesley Clark or Fred Thompson; good on paper, but just on paper.

Meh, that's a bad comparison.  Both Clark and Thompson came in late in the (primary) campaign viewed as saviors by a certain portion of their respective parties even though they didn't have much institutional nor financial support.  That will most certainly not be the case with DeSantis.  A better (negative) comparison would be a Howard Dean or a Rudy Giuliani (in 2008) - a guy that was thought to be the frontrunner but flamed out when the going got tough, for whatever reason.  

[TrackerNeil]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Meh, that's a bad comparison.  Both Clark and Thompson came in late in the (primary) campaign viewed as saviors by a certain portion of their respective parties even though they didn't have much institutional nor financial support.  That will most certainly not be the case with DeSantis.  A better (negative) comparison would be a Howard Dean or a Rudy Giuliani (in 2008) - a guy that was thought to be the frontrunner but flamed out when the going got tough, for whatever reason.  

DMC, when I need an opinion dismissed, I can always count on you. 

[DMC]

Just now, TrackerNeil said:

DMC, when I need an opinion dismissed, I can always count on you. 

I live to serve.