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Was the alliance, STAB formed for benevolent or malicious reasons?


maesternewton
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A brief recap of the data:

  • 271 AC: Eddard Stark fostered at the Eyrie. Robert Baratheon follows not much later.
  • 273 AC: The Princess of Dorne considers marrying Elia to Baelor Hightower. She's also toured in search of suitors at the Arbor, Oldtown, the Shield Islands and Crakehall.
  • 273 AC: The Princess of Dorne proposes the matches Jaime+Elia and Oberyn+Cersei.
  • 275 AC?: Hoster tries to convince his brother to marry Bethany Redwyne.
  • 276 AC: Betrothal Brandon Stark+Catelyn Tully
  • 280 AC: The marriage between Jaime Lannister and Lysa Tully is considered.
  • 280 AC: Bethrotal Robert Baratheon+Lyanna Stark
  • 281 AC: Tywin offers Tyrion for Lysa.

It's true that there are multiple instigators (Rickard, the Princess of Dorne, Tywin, Hoster,...) and that a conspiracy seems unlikely. But it's also surprising that many houses that up to then had married almost exclusively vassals or Targaryens, suddenly only seem to consider marrying outside his region.

Let's take the Lannisters, for instance. Before this decade, the gentree from AWOIAF shows 11 marriages. Only two of them are outside the West (Rohanne Webber and Emmon Frey), and both are specifically explained as oddities. But then enters Tywin and he tries to marry Cersei to the Targaryens, and Jaime and Tyrion to the Tullys.

It's the same with the Starks, the Martells or the Tullys. It seems that this generation did not even think of marrying their vassals, after having been doing only that in the past.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

The Great Lords barely ever interact with each other unless there's a civil war, they all remain in their country states.

The war of the Nine Penny Kings offered a unique opportunity for most of the Great Lords to bond together like they never had before or after, it's also very weird that Great Lords are friends at all but during that time Tywin and Steffon were best friends, Steffon, Jon Arryn and Rickard became war buddies etc.

The friendships forged during the War of the Ninepenny Kings is probably the best explanation we have so far, but it's not entirely satisfactory.

Those alliances took place more than a decade after the war, and some of the participants did not participate in the war (at the very least, the Princess of Dorne wasn't there). There's also the fact that this outburst of interregional marriages doesn't seem to have happened after previous conflicts such as the Blackfyre Rebellions or the Dornish Invasion.

11 hours ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

The Baelish thing, who knows what he was doing in Riverrun

We are told that Petyr's father befriended Hoster during the war of the 9PK.

Edited by The hairy bear
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9 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

A brief recap of the data:

  • 271 AC: Eddard Stark fostered at the Eyrie. Robert Baratheon follows not much later.
  • 273 AC: The Princess of Dorne considers marrying Elia to Baelor Hightower. She's also toured in search of suitors at the Arbor, Oldtown, the Shield Islands and Crakehall.
  • 273 AC: The Princess of Dorne proposes the matches Jaime+Elia and Oberyn+Cersei.
  • 275 AC?: Hoster tries to convince his brother to marry Bethany Redwyne.
  • 276 AC: Betrothal Brandon Stark+Catelyn Tully
  • 280 AC: The marriage between Jaime Lannister and Lysa Tully is considered.
  • 280 AC: Bethrotal Robert Baratheon+Lyanna Stark
  • 281 AC: Tywin offers Tyrion for Lysa.

It's true that there are multiple instigators (Rickard, the Princess of Dorne, Tywin, Hoster,...) and that a conspiracy seems unlikely. But it's also surprising that many houses that up to then had married almost exclusively vassals or Targaryens, suddenly only seem to consider marrying outside his region.

Let's take the Lannisters, for instance. Before this decade, the gentree from AWOIAF shows 11 marriages. Only two of them are outside the West (Rohanne Webber and Emmon Frey), and both are specifically explained as oddities. But then enters Tywin and he tries to marry Cersei to the Targaryens, and Jaime and Tyrion to the Tullys.

It's the same with the Starks, the Martells or the Tullys. It seems that this generation did not even think of marrying their vassals, after having been doing only that in the past.

The friendships forged during the War of the Ninepenny Kings is probably the best explanation we have so far, but it's not entirely satisfactory.

Those alliances took place more than a decade after the war, and some of the participants did not participate in the war (at the very least, the Princess of Dorne wasn't there). There's also the fact that this outburst of interregional marriages doesn't seem to have happened after previous conflicts such as the Blackfyre Rebellions or the Dornish Invasion.

We are told that Petyr's father befriended Hoster during the war of the 9PK.

Is it possible that there were inklings going on even before the War of the Ninepenny Kings? For example Ned Stark had an aunt who married into House Rogers in the Stormlands, and bear in mind there is barely any information about House Rogers.

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20 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

It's the same with the Starks, the Martells or the Tullys. It seems that this generation did not even think of marrying their vassals, after having been doing only that in the past.

Maybe it could be that after generations of vassal only marriages they had created enough loyalty amongst their vassals that there was no need to marry them again to ensure loyalty and so they could marry outside the region. Maybe the ages didn't line up so well before.

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Whataboutisms, nice. I don't understand though what that has to do with anything. Tywin had ambitions? Who knew?

.

"The day I learned that Brandon was to marry Catelyn Tully, though … there was nothing sweet about that pain. He never wanted her, I promise you that. He told me so, on our last night together … but Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions that would not be served by having his heir marry the daughter of one of his own vassals.

.

Ok, 3 options, 1. Dustin's lying to herself. 2 Brandon lied. 3 it's a correct assessment.

Lady Dustin was traumatized and Brandon maybe wanted to just get laid so both are plausible. But while losing your partner to politics sucks, Lady Dustin doesnt strike me as the soft lovey dovey type. And while Brandon saying whatever so his friend doesn't flip and so he can get laid is also a realistic situation, the fact is this was their last night together. If Brandon wanted to dub her it'd be simple but instead he went to explain it to to her which does imply they had a real relationship.

The only option remaining then is great ambitions 

On 5/10/2023 at 6:28 PM, maesternewton said:

1. Was it created for benevolent or malicious reasons? 

2. What were each of the lords thinking when they betrothed their children? What were their goals?

1. Aren't those synonyms? They're great lords, it was created for the wellbeing of their house and family. In that order

2.

Rickard. So hes clearly doing something here, I look at him as the leader. The bully if you'd like, after all when it comes to great lords, none are greater then Stark. Probably wanted the title of Hand perhaps kingmaker as well, anything else seems like too tall of an order(usurp/follow his grandson), anything less is a waste of time. (Pay less taxes or whatever)

Hoster. Become great, strengthen the riverlands. This is just a fact, it's useful that he was alive in asoiaf (if you call that alive) so we see what his mindset was a bit better. Pimps out his daughter for honor (poor Petyr/Brandon/Lady Dustin. Good job cupid!) when Brandon died though Hoster rewrote the deal. Pimp out daughter, nah pimp out daughters! Hoster definitely did well for his house by joining Stark and JonA. Lots of the current story of asoiaf revolves around Tully.

JonA. Who the hell really knows, this was Rickards baby and Jon was supposed to be the sidekick. We assume he was the boss because he was but it's important to remember that he was just wearing another man's shoes. He probably wanted the usual, lands titles wealth but in all likelihood he was just being pushed around by Rickard 

Robert, he just wanted to marry that girl who looks like his friend but with long hair

Edited by Hugorfonics
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3 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Let's take the Lannisters, for instance. Before this decade, the gentree from AWOIAF shows 11 marriages. Only two of them are outside the West (Rohanne Webber and Emmon Frey), and both are specifically explained as oddities. But then enters Tywin and he tries to marry Cersei to the Targaryens, and Jaime and Tyrion to the Tullys.

It's the same with the Starks, the Martells or the Tullys. It seems that this generation did not even think of marrying their vassals, after having been doing only that in the past.

It is rather strange.

3 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The friendships forged during the War of the Ninepenny Kings is probably the best explanation we have so far, but it's not entirely satisfactory.

Those alliances took place more than a decade after the war, and some of the participants did not participate in the war (at the very least, the Princess of Dorne wasn't there). There's also the fact that this outburst of interregional marriages doesn't seem to have happened after previous conflicts such as the Blackfyre Rebellions or the Dornish Invasion.

Some of it is probably just the way things shook out circumstantially. By the mid-270s you have five great lords, plus the king, who all know each other from the NPK war, all with a number of kids who are roughly of an age, and maybe this was just an opportunity which hadn't been there at the time of previous conflicts. It doesn't help that we don't really know that much about most of the families even quite recently into the past aside from the family trees, which don't tell us much about the actual personalities involved. We know very little about Rickard Stark, even. The family we know best, aside from the Targs, is probably the Lannisters, thanks to the detailed history of the reign of Gerold and the Reyne-Tarbeck rebellion.

A part of me wonders if this was even encouraged by the monarchy, rather than the initiative of the lords themselves. The intention might have been that by intermarrying the great houses, you would help to weaken the internal marriage bonds in each of the constituent kingdoms and remove some of the "silo" effect where kingdoms are effectively self-governing territories paying lip service to the crown (especially in places like the North), in time creating a kingdom that was more unified and less centrifugal in its tendencies. 

If so it backfired spectacularly, obviously, but you can still see a glimmer of the idea in Robb's ability to assume command over the Riverlords and absorb them into his own nascent kingdom, something it's hard to imagine a prior northern lord doing without bloody conquest. With a Tully for a mother, he's more acceptable to them and probably more respectful of them than the Starks of old might have been. Or for that matter of Sansa's ability to fit into court rather better than one can imagine former Stark princesses doing. Of course, Ned's kids were the one real success story of that round of marriage alliances: some of them never came to pass, Rhaegar's kids didn't make it out of infancy, and Sweetrobin is a mess.

Although, Littlefinger is another product of this system, of course! And he's at home in the Vale, in the Riverlands, in King's Landing, an adaptable agent of the crown. 

But if we can imagine a whole generation of Robbs and Sansas as offspring of all the great lords coming to maturity across the kingdoms at roughly the same time and then conceivably seeking marriages with each other... the realm soon starts to look much more cohesive than it had done under previous Targ kings. And while these kids are much more dangerous than their predecessors had been - as Robb shows - they're also much more useful to the crown if they can be kept onside, as another product of the system, Littlefinger, demonstrates. Of course, we as readers suspect that LF is also out for himself and secretly working to bring everything down, but on paper he's an adaptable and versatile servant of the crown, at home in the Vale, in the Riverlands, and in King's Landing, and the crown could do with a few more like him.

3 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

We are told that Petyr's father befriended Hoster during the war of the 9PK.

Ah, that makes more sense then. 

44 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Whataboutisms, nice. I don't understand though what that has to do with anything. Tywin had ambitions? Who knew?

.

"The day I learned that Brandon was to marry Catelyn Tully, though … there was nothing sweet about that pain. He never wanted her, I promise you that. He told me so, on our last night together … but Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions that would not be served by having his heir marry the daughter of one of his own vassals.

.

Ok, 3 options, 1. Dustin's lying to herself. 2 Brandon lied. 3 it's a correct assessment.

Or a fourth option: Neither Barbrey nor Brandon is lying, but Barbrey's perception and resentment has caused her to overstate the importance and scale of Rickard's ambitions.

Brandon: So babe, I'm like, super broken up and all, but my dad says I have to marry this Cat Tully person, because she's a great lord's daughter and I'm his heir
Barbrey, twenty years later: Oh yeah, Rickard Stark had great southron ambitions and I wasn't good enough for his Brandon because I was just a vassal's daughter and etc.

I'm also inclined to believe that Barbrey overestimates Brandon's attachment to her. Brandon strikes me - from Barbrey's own description! - as the kind of guy who will say whatever he needs to to get a girl into bed and then realise "he's shipping out tomorrow" in the morning. And that she is self-aware enough that deep down she knows that but it's easier to blame Rickard for taking Brandon away from her because of his southron - ew - ambitions than to recognise that really Brandon was always going to walk out on her one day anyway.

44 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Rickard. So hes clearly doing something here, I look at him as the leader. The bully if you'd like, after all when it comes to great lords, none are greater then Stark. Probably wanted the title of Hand perhaps kingmaker as well, anything else seems like too tall of an order(usurp/follow his grandson), anything less is a waste of time. (Pay less taxes or whatever)

Hoster. Become great, strengthen the riverlands. This is just a fact, it's useful that he was alive in asoiaf (if you call that alive) so we see what his mindset was a bit better. Pimps out his daughter for honor (poor Petyr/Brandon/Lady Dustin. Good job cupid!) when Brandon died though Hoster rewrote the deal. Pimp out daughter, nah pimp out daughters! Hoster definitely did well for his house by joining Stark and JonA. Lots of the current story of asoiaf revolves around Tully.

JonA. Who the hell really knows, this was Rickards baby and Jon was supposed to be the sidekick. We assume he was the boss because he was but it's important to remember that he was just wearing another man's shoes. He probably wanted the usual, lands titles wealth but in all likelihood he was just being pushed around by Rickard 

Robert, he just wanted to marry that girl who looks like his friend but with long hair

I actually see Jon as the main mind here. Jon is the hub around which much of the rest revolves: he's the key point of contact between Robert and Ned and it's that which ends up being the fulcrum of the whole alliance. Hoster is the other one, but he's more opportunist. Rickard just doesn't seem like the mastermind. After all, when Aerys arrested Brandon and accused him of treason by proxy, Rickard just turned up intending to follow proper procedures. If he were the leader of a seditious alliance you'd expect him to call his banners at that point, as Jon did when Aerys later asked him for Bob and Ned's heads, or as Robb (and indeed Renly) do the moment that Ned is arrested.

Indeed, if Rickard really were plotting to bring down the king, wouldn't you expect Brandon to be at least sufficiently aware of this that when Rhaegar kidnaps Lyanna he knows to call the banners rather than riding to King's Landing personally like an idiot? 

As to the actual purpose of this hypothetical alliance, there seems to be an assumption that the plan was always to bring down the Targs. But why? There's no particular reason to believe that Rickard or Jon or Hoster or Robert-before-Harrenhal had any particular beef with the Targs. When this was being set up, Aerys was a bit of a kook, but an adequate ruler, and Tywin was still Hand. Aerys's succession was reasonably secure. There was no obvious alternative candidate as king. And Steffon was still in play. In fact there only look like two people who a plot against Aerys would conceivably benefit at this stage, and that's Rhaegar and Tywin. But Rhaegar was in his early teens when most of this was being set up, so is unlikely to be the mastermind. And Tywin is still pinning his hopes on Aerys into the late 270s, and comes late to the intermarriage party, so his actions don't fit with his being a leading conspirator either.

By the time of the tournament of Harrenhal, which is when it starts to become clear for the first time really the extent to which both Aerys and Rhaegar had lost it, and the first time that you would logically expect a plot against the Targs as a whole (rather than anti-Aerys but pro-Rhaegar) to gain traction, most of the key pieces of the puzzle were already in place. Very little happened to shore up the putative alliance after Harrenhal until the outbreak of war proper (at which point we have the rushed marriages of Ned and Jon to the Tully girls).

The idea of a grand anti-Targ conspiracy just doesn't hold up for me: there isn't enough (really, any) evidence, and the motives for the supposed conspirators don't really make sense. 

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15 minutes ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

The idea of a grand anti-Targ conspiracy just doesn't hold up for me: there isn't enough (really, any) evidence, and the motives for the supposed conspirators don't really make sense. 

I think quite a few people want there to be a big, treacherous anti-Targaryen conspiracy so what Aerys did was 'justified'...

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1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think quite a few people want there to be a big, treacherous anti-Targaryen conspiracy so what Aerys did was 'justified'...

They conveniently forget that Rhaegar had conspiracy plans of his own, but apparently it's ok when he does it.

Even if the "STAB" conspiracy was canon, it would be an anti-Aerys conspiracy. If Rhaegar hadn't constantly flaked out of his "plans", he probably would have had the support of the larger portion of the kingdom. (I'm talking pre-Harrenhal of course.)

Edited by Ser Arthurs Dawn
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1 hour ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

Or a fourth option: Neither Barbrey nor Brandon is lying, but Barbrey's perception and resentment has caused her to overstate the importance and scale of Rickard's ambitions.

Brandon: So babe, I'm like, super broken up and all, but my dad says I have to marry this Cat Tully person, because she's a great lord's daughter and I'm his heir
Barbrey, twenty years later: Oh yeah, Rickard Stark had great southron ambitions and I wasn't good enough for his Brandon because I was just a vassal's daughter and etc.

No that's the first option. She's lying to herself.

Her name's Barbie but that's where the girly girl ends, she doesn't seem the type to swoon for twenty years. That's more Robert.

Also, she was a good match. A highborn maiden (well...) whos also dating the guy. To color so far out the box when all logic is already here, again it's not Aladdin she's not a street rat, it implies ambition. 

1 hour ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

I'm also inclined to believe that Barbrey overestimates Brandon's attachment to her. Brandon strikes me - from Barbrey's own description! - as the kind of guy who will say whatever he needs to to get a girl into bed and then realise "he's shipping out tomorrow" in the morning. And that she is self-aware enough that deep down she knows that but it's easier to blame Rickard for taking Brandon away from her because of his southron - ew - ambitions than to recognise that really Brandon was always going to walk out on her one day anyway.

But then why'd he come back. He took her virginity and it seems like he continued seeing her for a bit, then he spent one last night with her because his dad said hes marrying Cat. Why would he come back and make this romantic good bye? Just for one last time? Was Lady Dustin that hot?

Again it is feasible, like option 1, but it's not as probable as the timeless tale of two crazy kids and their crazier parents. Nor is it better. So like, could Brandon have had the rolladex of all highborn northern ladies, it's possible but it's more likely he was, well, courting her.

1 hour ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

I actually see Jon as the main mind here. Jon is the hub around which much of the rest revolves: he's the key point of contact between Robert and Ned and it's that which ends up being the fulcrum of the whole alliance. Hoster is the other one, but he's more opportunist. Rickard just doesn't seem like the mastermind. After all, when Aerys arrested Brandon and accused him of treason by proxy, Rickard just turned up intending to follow proper procedures. If he were the leader of a seditious alliance

I never said he was (did you like read my post or?), In fact I specifically said he would not emulate Robb or Robert. (He just wanted to wave the collective big dick, it's all these warlords ever want)

Why did he go to KL with out a squad (sounds like he emulated Ned), probably because he knew he was untouchable, that he built an alliance capable of tearing the world apart. He was right, in a way. 

As far why he was the boss and Jon was his loyal squire, when they went to the swords and spears market the price was one Tully. However when Jon went alone it was two. (Very Walder like behavior, but who do you think taught him these moves?) Now it is possible that Hoster saw the stake increase and thusly rewrote the deal but even so, knowing Stark (Ned, Robb, Jon) he'd say stfu and stick to the deal without cracking a smile, but he was dead and JonA was no Stark. 

Yea idk about Steffon. Coincidence I think. Robert and JonA were just the added unforseen bonus characters unlocked. Sometimes fate plays your hand for you. But Rickards baby was the basic unification that we know as the north and trident 

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6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

It's true that there are multiple instigators (Rickard, the Princess of Dorne, Tywin, Hoster,...) and that a conspiracy seems unlikely. But it's also surprising that many houses that up to then had married almost exclusively vassals or Targaryens, suddenly only seem to consider marrying outside his region.

Again, i don't really think it is that unlikely, during Egg's and Jaeharys' 2  and early on in Aerys' reign  the Great Lords had the opportunity to know each other better, they would normally hardly interact.

For example we know that the Princess of Dorne and Joanna Lannisters became gyal pals during their time together in King's Landing.

I don't think high lords interact that much, even in the oddly tourney they may attend to, they seem to interact with their own instead of mingling.

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Those alliances took place more than a decade after the war, and some of the participants did not participate in the war (at the very least, the Princess of Dorne wasn't there). There's also the fact that this outburst of interregional marriages doesn't seem to have happened after previous conflicts such as the Blackfyre Rebellions or the Dornish Invasion.

  • The children starting popping not soon after the war was over and they could only become old enough to start being traded a decade or so later.
  • The Princess of Dorne may have not fought there, i bet however that Lewyn did fight and make good pals with the Hightowers or something.
  • This is the only war were almost every Great Lord or heir to a Great Lord participated, (Hoster and Brynden, Tywin and his brothers, Quellon Greyjoy, Jon Arryn, Rickard, the Baratheons father and son), this is also the only time we're explicitly told these men fought side by side, whereas largely during the Dornish wars they went yolo or entire regions didn't bother to show up at all, and bonded during war. This is an extremely unique situation.

 

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lady Dustin doesnt strike me as the soft lovey dovey type

She strikes as someone who wanted to be an Stark, was iced out, and started harboring resentment because of it.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I never said he was (did you like read my post or?), In fact I specifically said he would not emulate Robb or Robert. (He just wanted to wave the collective big dick, it's all these warlords ever want)

I did. You said, and I quote:

Quote

So hes clearly doing something here, I look at [Rickard] as the leader. The bully if you'd like, after all when it comes to great lords, none are greater then Stark. Probably wanted the title of Hand perhaps kingmaker as well, anything else seems like too tall of an order(usurp/follow his grandson), anything less is a waste of time. (Pay less taxes or whatever)

So you're clearly positing Rickard as the mastermind behind the conspiracy.

 

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why did he go to KL with out a squad (sounds like he emulated Ned), probably because he knew he was untouchable, that he built an alliance capable of tearing the world apart. He was right, in a way. 

Or, more likely, because he was acting in good faith and intended to clear his name. He probably took some retainers with him because that's how great lords do, but he was going to answer the charges against him and his son, not as a warlord. If you're on the brink of starting a rebellion against the king, when he calls you to answer the charge of treason, you don't actually show up in the throne room, or at the very least you don't show up expecting a trial. You either spring the rebellion early or you throw yourself on the king's mercy. Rickard's behaviour just doesn't fit with someone who's been planning treason.

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

As far why he was the boss and Jon was his loyal squire, when they went to the swords and spears market the price was one Tully. However when Jon went alone it was two. (Very Walder like behavior, but who do you think taught him these moves?) Now it is possible that Hoster saw the stake increase and thusly rewrote the deal but even so, knowing Stark (Ned, Robb, Jon) he'd say stfu and stick to the deal without cracking a smile, but he was dead and JonA was no Stark. 

The situation has changed dramatically. When Rickard asked for Cat's hand for Brandon, Brandon was the undisputed heir to Winterfell and the North and Hoster didn't actually have to do anything. When they came back after Rickard's death, they were traitors asking that Hoster turn traitor and raise his armies now to fight alongside them, in a rebellion which if it failed would probably mean the extinction of his house. And now Hoster also has an awkward second-daughter situation to deal with. So he plays a little more hardball than he did the first time round.

I just don't really see any convincing evidence for a grand STAB conspiracy and to the extent there was any such plan I see even less evidence that Rickard was the leader of it.

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19 hours ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

So you're clearly positing Rickard as the mastermind behind the conspiracy.

Yea but I never said the conspiracy ends with him on the throne, nor Robert Rhegar or Moonboy

19 hours ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

Or, more likely, because he was acting in good faith and intended to clear his name. He probably took some retainers with him because that's how great lords do, but he was going to answer the charges against him and his son, not as a warlord. If you're on the brink of starting a rebellion against the king, when he calls you to answer the charge of treason, you don't actually show up in the throne room, or at the very least you don't show up expecting a trial. You either spring the rebellion early or you throw yourself on the king's mercy. Rickard's behaviour just doesn't fit with someone who's been planning treason.

When your son is at the whim of the mad king you spring rebellion early or throw yourself at the kings mercy. 

He went for the second option I guess, but he came with a small crew who represented future muscle.

19 hours ago, Desiring Nectarines said:

I just don't really see any convincing evidence for a grand STAB conspiracy and to the extent there was any such plan I see even less evidence that Rickard was the leader of it.

It's spelled pretty clearly out in the text, but whatever. 

Edited by Hugorfonics
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On 5/10/2023 at 4:28 PM, maesternewton said:

The is a popular theory that due to "Southern Ambitions", Rickard Stark betrothed Brandon to Catelyn and Lyanna to Robert, allying the North with the Riverlands and the Stormlands. That by having Ned and Robert fostered at the Eyrie, they were cementing a friendship thereby allying with the Vale. 

Creating the STAB alliance; Stark, Tully, Arryn and Baratheon.

1. Was it created for benevolent or malicious reasons? 

2. What were each of the lords thinking when they betrothed their children? What were their goals?

 

There is no reason to believe that such an alliance even existed.

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On 5/10/2023 at 6:28 PM, maesternewton said:

The is a popular theory that due to "Southern Ambitions", Rickard Stark betrothed Brandon to Catelyn and Lyanna to Robert, allying the North with the Riverlands and the Stormlands. That by having Ned and Robert fostered at the Eyrie, they were cementing a friendship thereby allying with the Vale. 

Creating the STAB alliance; Stark, Tully, Arryn and Baratheon.

1. Was it created for benevolent or malicious reasons? 

2. What were each of the lords thinking when they betrothed their children? What were their goals?

The STAB alliance only exists in hindsight.

House Arryn had no marriage ties to Stark, Tully, or Baratheon until well into the war when Jon wed Lysa (and Ned Catelyn) for Hoster's troops. House Arryn/Jon's connection to Tully was a war-time decision, while his connection to Stark and Baratheon was based on paternal feelings for Ned and Robert, not marriage ties.

House Baratheon under Robert's father was arguably one of the two or three closest major houses to House Targaryen, so Jon fostering/Rickard fostering his son with the heir of House Baratheon was more likely to be motivated by networking with those close to the throne than having any malicious intention towards the Targaryens, especially way back in 271, just a handful of years after Rickard's visit to KL inspired Aerys to want to build a new Wall.

Hoster didn't turn against Aerys until well into the war, and when he was trying to wed Lysa to Jaime Tywin was still Aerys's most trusted servant, himself still trying to realize his dream of his daughter wed to Prince Rhaegar.

Rickard's "Southern Ambitions," to the extent they existed, were in favor of increased relations with the throne and the south, not a conspiracy against the Targaryens or Aerys. He betrothed his heir to a house long allied to and owing its status to House Targaryen, which itself was once considered worthy to provide a queen, though Prince Duncan screwed that up.

Even if Rickard completely played a long game hoping way back in 271 that friendship between Ned and Robert would lead to a marriage between Lyanna and Robert (seems unlikely), Robert initiated the betrothal, and at the time the Starks would have been marrying one of the two or three closest major houses to the throne, which could even one day supply a queen.

So STAB is only a thing in hindsight, a self-fulfilling prophecy of Aerys's paranoia.

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In real medieval history the crown had a LOT…sometimes absolute…control over which nobles could marry which (and pay for the privilege). Precisely because such unions were a direct threat to the crown via alliances. Alliances of your vassals is an existential threat to a feudal monarch regardless of how benign their intentions might be. And those vassals recognize the same dynamic for the same reasons. So while he may or may not have had some great master plan, there is no doubt that Rickard Stark was attempting to form a power bloc, and the only direction that bloc’s power could be pointed would be at the IT. 

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3 hours ago, James Arryn said:

In real medieval history the crown had a LOT…sometimes absolute…control over which nobles could marry which (and pay for the privilege). Precisely because such unions were a direct threat to the crown via alliances. Alliances of your vassals is an existential threat to a feudal monarch regardless of how benign their intentions might be. And those vassals recognize the same dynamic for the same reasons. So while he may or may not have had some great master plan, there is no doubt that Rickard Stark was attempting to form a power bloc,

I do not see how his marriage plan with Riverrun was a threat to the Crown.

Rickard found himself with Robert pursuing Lyanna, that's about it.

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and the only direction that bloc’s power could be pointed would be at the IT. 

Why?

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Not saying there wasn't a plan behind the many marriage pacts an proposed/planned, but this, to me, also feels like a natural process.

Think about it. The Seven Kingdoms have lacked the unity until 300 years ago, before the conquest. 

There wasn't a well established good relation between any kingdoms prior to the Conquest. The only rleation we don't nnow nothing of is that of the Vale and the Riverlands (Iron Islands, basically). Both the Durrandons and the Hoares have been fighting over what is now the Crownlands and the Riverlands (to some extent), yet it is the Arryns who stay out of it, with such close proximity to the regions in question.

Anyway, not my point. What I'm saying is that everyone was isolationist prior the conquest. There were no good relations between the great houses, and it is the unification of the continent that started to end the hostility. And it is time that made the 7 into 1, and it may just be a natural thing to open up to new possibilities after some time.

The way I see it, Rickard was ambitious, but there wasn't a valid concern behind to bring together so many of the great houses. And it's not like Jon Arryn didn't have an heir, his nephew, Elbert Arryn (later one of the companions of Brandon, gets killed by Aerys), who I'm 99% sure wasn't married, engaged, but still young, who had nothing going on, altough there were quite a few good options to cement the STAB, or widen it even further.

The person who most likely had reasons to make allies was the Princess of Dorne, the mother of Doran, Elia and Oberyn. Dorne was still relatively hostile towards both the Reach and the Stormlands, and they also were becoming just distant kin to the Targaryens (with the Baratheons becoming the ones with close ties). 

Edited by Daeron the Daring
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The only thing the family trees from TWoIaF tell us is that some of the ruling Starks and Lannisters didn't intermarry much with houses from other regions. It doesn't tell us much about what younger sons and daughters did. We do know that there were Baratheon-Lannister matches throughout the Targaryen reign, we know that a daughter of Torrhen Stark married Ronnel Arryn, etc.

Wouldn't surprise me if Royce Baratheon and Loreon Lannister ended up with brides from other great houses, daughters of Kermit Tully, say.

That the current Starks and Lannisters aren't close cousins to any other major house is also more or less necessary for the plot, since any of the players having some flimsy or weak claim to Winterfell, Storm's End, Casterly Rock, etc. should play a role in the plot.

The idea that a setting such as the one we have in the books is unusual doesn't feel right. It is easily possible that some of the great houses got equally close, for a time, after the Conquest, during the reign of Jaehaerys with the many matches arranged by Rhaenys, Visenya, and Alysanne ... and also in the wake of the Dance due to lasting Black or Green affiliations. Another such instance could have been a closeness of crucial houses who participated in the Conquest of Dorne. Ditto with the Blackfyre Rebellions, etc.

One would actually imagine that the War of the Ninepenny Kings is the foundation for a lot of what we see in the main series. It established the friendship between Aerys, Tywin, and Steffon ... and it might be that Rickard Stark participated there, too. Even if he wasn't a part of that, it seems that Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully were, so Steffon's decision to foster Robert with Jon may have the same origin as Hoster's decision to foster Petyr Baelish.

Edited by Lord Varys
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13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 ... and it might be that Rickard Stark participated there, too.

The "World of Ice and Fire" app, prepared by Ran and Linda with input from George, claims that he did.

The War of the 9PK is really noteworthy in that it included the lords or the heirs of the Iron Throne, the North, the Vale, the West, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, and the Iron Islands. Apparently only the Reach and Dorne sent representations with lower profiles.

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