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Targaryen Stratagem


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Daenerys will go to Westeros towards the conclusion of the story.  In the last book.  She will know what to expect before leaving Essos and she will bring a strong military.  Which will have the dragons,  Unsullied, Dothraki Khalasars, Ironborn, Sellsword Companies, and soldiers in training who will follow their Mhysa to Westeros.  Jorah, Victarion, Greyworm, Belwas, and Barristan will be on this trip. Skahaz and his Brazen Beasts will stay in Meereen to keep the peace. 

The place of landing will be important.  Do they circle the planet and make their way to Casterly Rock like Quaithe implied they should?  I don't think so.  Casterly Rock is too far from King's Landing.  The march will be long and harsh because of winter conditions.  White Harbor will be frozen and unavailable to handle large ships. Dorne is a choice but it will mean a long march to King's Landing. Oldtown is too far from King's Landing. Dragonstone is a good choice as the first location from which to build a base.  From there they could block sea traffic and starve King's Landing.

The Stepstones will be the best if the sea levels were to drop.  It will mean a slower travel but they can use the small islands to relay food, weapons, and supplies from Essos.  They can stop before reaching Sunspear and work their way up the south eastern coast towards King's Landing.  Seafood will be plenty from the seas. The dragons will have plenty of food to choose from.  Grass and hay for the horses can be obtained from the coastal lands or brought from Essos. 

I don't think they will attack King's Landing immediately unless it is already overtaken by wights or Arya got there first and lighted the wildfire.  In that case there will be very little left of the capital city and its people.  The Empress will choose to avoid costly battles.  There will be negotiations with the houses of Dorne, Stormlands, Crownlands and the Reach to avoid costly battles.  The Battle of The Neck will have Daenerys's army and her new allies battling the Bran-controlled wights, the Others, and Jon's wildlings. 

Edited by James Fenimore Cooper XXII
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38 minutes ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Daenerys will go to Westeros towards the conclusion of the story.  In the last book.  She will know what to expect before leaving Essos and she will bring a strong military.  Which will have the dragons,  Unsullied, Dothraki Khalasars, Ironborn, Sellsword Companies, and soldiers in training who will follow their Mhysa to Westeros.  Jorah, Victarion, Greyworm, Belwas, and Barristan will be on this trip. Skahaz and his Brazen Beasts will stay in Meereen to keep the peace. 

The place of landing will be important.  Do they circle the planet and make their way to Casterly Rock like Quaithe implied they should?  I don't think so.  Casterly Rock is too far from King's Landing.  The march will be long and harsh because of winter conditions.  White Harbor will be frozen and unavailable to handle large ships. Dorne is a choice but it will mean a long march to King's Landing. Oldtown is too far from King's Landing. Dragonstone is a good choice as the first location from which to build a base.  From there they could block sea traffic and starve King's Landing.

The Stepstones will be the best if the sea levels were to drop.  It will mean a slower travel but they can use the small islands to relay food, weapons, and supplies from Essos.  They can stop before reaching Sunspear and work their way up the south eastern coast towards King's Landing.  Seafood will be plenty from the seas. The dragons will have plenty of food to choose from.  Grass and hay for the horses can be obtained from the coastal lands or brought from Essos. 

I don't think they will attack King's Landing immediately unless it is already overtaken by wights or Arya got there first and lighted the wildfire.  In that case there will be very little left of the capital city and its people.  The Empress will choose to avoid costly battles.  There will be negotiations with the houses of Dorne, Stormlands, Crownlands and the Reach to avoid costly battles.  The Battle of The Neck will have Daenerys's army and her new allies battling the Bran-controlled wights, the Others, and Jon's wildlings. 

Wow this was a legitimate topic and discussion until the last paragraph, which was utter fanfiction. 

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6 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Dragonstone is a good choice as the first location from which to build a base.  From there they could block sea traffic and starve King's Landing.

King's Landing doesn't get his food supplies by sea. They are get it from the Reach and the Riverlands, so the transport is made by road.

From the Free Cities they receive basically luxuries: Myrish Lace, Volantene Glass,... So a sea block may annoy some nobles and ruin a few merchants, but starving King's Landing is not really feasible.

Still, it's still very nicely placed as a base of opperation, and from a propaganda perspective retaking the ancestral Targaryen seat it'd be a powerful move.

6 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

I don't think they will attack King's Landing immediately unless it is already overtaken by wights or Arya got there first and lighted the wildfire.  In that case there will be very little left of the capital city and its people.

Of late, I've seen a few posters suggesting that the explosion of the wildfire that Aerys left buried may obliterate King's Landing. I don't think that's the case.

We know that the placing of the jars was done "in the utmost secrecy by a handful of master pyromancers. They did not even trust their own acolytes to help." So they couldn't place a huge amount of wildfire, specially outside the Red Keep. We also know that the cache that is discovered under the Dragonpit was only of about 300 jars. For comparison, in the battle of the Backwater Tyrion used 10,000 jars.

So I don't think it's reasonable to expect an explosion capable of destroying the whole city. If Aerys had managed to make all the wildfire explode, he may have managed to bring down the Red Keep and the Great Sept, kill a few hundreds of citizens, and create a few fires. But that would be it.

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2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

King's Landing doesn't get his food supplies by sea. They are get it from the Reach and the Riverlands, so the transport is made by road.

From the Free Cities they receive basically luxuries: Myrish Lace, Volantene Glass,... So a sea block may annoy some nobles and ruin a few merchants, but starving King's Landing is not really feasible.

 

I’d think KL gets food from both routes…medieval mindsets about transport are sort of an inversion of what we’d think; water is not the obstacle, it’s the highway…which is why most of the primary cities/trade hubs were as far inland as normal shipping can reach. I think maybe you are thinking about the Tyrells ~ blockading KL but forgetting that that happened after Stannis had already closed down the shipping lanes? It’s the combination that really puts the city in a bind. 
 

As for the OP’s initial question, I am under the impression that Quaithe’s statement reflects an originally intended ~ Columbus concept that GRRM scrapped, and that the surprise CR attack was part of that. All the ‘west to go east’ stuff now mostly seems to be treated like something he’d prefer we forget.

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56 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I’d think KL gets food from both routes…medieval mindsets about transport are sort of an inversion of what we’d think; water is not the obstacle, it’s the highway…which is why most of the primary cities/trade hubs were as far inland as normal shipping can reach. I think maybe you are thinking about the Tyrells ~ blockading KL but forgetting that that happened after Stannis had already closed down the shipping lanes? It’s the combination that really puts the city in a bind.

It would seem that it would be more cost efficient to take the grain harvested in the Reach (which we are told is the most fertile region of Westeros) to KL would be to carry it north via the Roseroad, instead of going south across a route of a similar length, and then shipping it around the continent (while crossing through the pirate-infested Stepstones).

And in any case, closing only the sea routes be enough to "starve King's Landing", as the OP claimed.

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It's fun to speculate about these scenarios, and perhaps sit down with a map and do some analysis. I think that some of the events in the OP may well happen in the books. If I may contribute a few thoughts ...

I seem to recall a bit of text stating that, in fact, White Harbor is the Northernmost port in Westeros that doesn't freeze during the Winter. If so, then it will be a good place for Daenerys's fleet to land, especially if she wants to get to the Wall as quickly as possible.

I don't expect any noticeable drop in sea level. That's more of a science fiction thing, not fantasy. If the arm of Dorne is un-broken, it will be by magic, not climate change.

In general, this scenario seems a little to need and tidy. For example:

Quote

Unsullied, Dothraki Khalasars, Ironborn, Sellsword Companies, and soldiers in training who will follow their Mhysa to Westeros.

This is Martin, not Tolkien. I'll wager a dozen lemon cakes that at least one of those forces will never set foot on Westeros. Ambushes, treachery, mutinies, disease, storms, and/or krakens will take a heavy toll. And if none of the other great houses resist her invasion, it will only be because Winter has left them so drained of food, men, and other resources that they are simply unable to fight.

Similarly, I don't expect the story to end with Daenerys being Empress of The Known World. I do think she will live to the end of the story, and restore House Targaryen to the Iron Throne, or achieve some similar grand victory.

When I look at the big picture of ASOIAF and all the companion books, it seems to me that it's really a story about the Targaryens. There's an entire book dedicated to them, and another volume in progress. And the Dunk and Egg stories are, to some extent, really about the Targaryens. Egg is one; and Dunk serves as a "walking camera" through which we observe important things happening to various other Targaryens. So I expect Dany to live and triumph ... unless Aegon, or Jon Snow, or A Targaryen To Be Named Later, takes over that role ...

Edited by Aebram
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15 minutes ago, Aebram said:

When I look at the big picture of ASOIAF and all the companion books, it seems to me that it's really a story about the Targaryens. There's an entire book dedicated to them, and another volume in progress. And the Dunk and Egg stories are, to some extent, really about the Targaryens. Egg is one; and Dunk serves as a "walking camera" through which we observe important things happening to various other Targaryens. So I expect Dany to live and triumph ... unless Aegon, or Jon Snow, or A Targaryen To Be Named Later, takes over that role ...

I don't think ASOIAF is the story of the Targaryens. I think the conditons you mention above rather solidifies the idea of the chosen one. His is the song of Ice and Fire, the Starks and the Targaryens.

But the Lannisters come really-really close in every other way to being just as significant as the two mentioned above, just not regarding the PTWP/Azor Ahai stuff.

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4 hours ago, Aebram said:

It's fun to speculate about these scenarios, and perhaps sit down with a map and do some analysis. I think that some of the events in the OP may well happen in the books. If I may contribute a few thoughts ...

I seem to recall a bit of text stating that, in fact, White Harbor is the Northernmost port in Westeros that doesn't freeze during the Winter. If so, then it will be a good place for Daenerys's fleet to land, especially if she wants to get to the Wall as quickly as possible.

I don't expect any noticeable drop in sea level. That's more of a science fiction thing, not fantasy. If the arm of Dorne is un-broken, it will be by magic, not climate change.

In general, this scenario seems a little to need and tidy. For example:

This is Martin, not Tolkien. I'll wager a dozen lemon cakes that at least one of those forces will never set foot on Westeros. Ambushes, treachery, mutinies, disease, storms, and/or krakens will take a heavy toll. And if none of the other great houses resist her invasion, it will only be because Winter has left them so drained of food, men, and other resources that they are simply unable to fight.

Similarly, I don't expect the story to end with Daenerys being Empress of The Known World. I do think she will live to the end of the story, and restore House Targaryen to the Iron Throne, or achieve some similar grand victory.

When I look at the big picture of ASOIAF and all the companion books, it seems to me that it's really a story about the Targaryens. There's an entire book dedicated to them, and another volume in progress. And the Dunk and Egg stories are, to some extent, really about the Targaryens. Egg is one; and Dunk serves as a "walking camera" through which we observe important things happening to various other Targaryens. So I expect Dany to live and triumph ... unless Aegon, or Jon Snow, or A Targaryen To Be Named Later, takes over that role ...

The Targaryens are the central family of the story. The story is about that family and their fight with the dark Stark clan. 

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48 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Targaryens are the central family of the story. The story is about that family and their fight with the dark Stark clan. 

It’s quite obviously all about the fall of house Caron. They are the Singers, this is their Song.

Edited by James Arryn
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The first landing will be Dragonstone. It is close to Essos and is historically significant for the Targaryen's. From there, Kings Landing is a short trip.

I don't see her looking at the West cost or Dorne. They are not practical for an army that size simply from a logistic and time perspective(not that George takes that into account at times). Also, White Harbor isn't likely, does she even know of what's going on North of the Wall ?

She is going home for her crown. Unless something drastic changes before she get back home and she receives this information.

And Arya burning Kings Landing with Wildfire is a ridiculous take. Give your head a shake.

IF it happens, the closest thing to the Mad King is Cersei.

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1 minute ago, Northern Sword said:

The first landing will be Dragonstone. It is close to Essos and is historically significant for the Targaryen's. From there, Kings Landing is a short trip.

I don't see her looking at the West cost or Dorne. They are not practical for an army that size simply from a logistic and time perspective(not that George takes that into account at times). Also, White Harbor isn't likely, does she even know of what's going on North of the Wall ?

She is going home for her crown. Unless something drastic changes before she get back home and she receives this information.

And Arya burning Kings Landing with Wildfire is a ridiculous take. Give your head a shake.

IF it happens, the closest thing to the Mad King is Cersei.

I think it could be Jon Con after finding out fAegon is not Aegon. He’ll hear the Bells as Dany approaches and it’ll trigger his ptsd, combined with the realization his life had been a lie, and the Greyscale reaching his brain.

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32 minutes ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

I think it could be Jon Con after finding out fAegon is not Aegon. He’ll hear the Bells as Dany approaches and it’ll trigger his ptsd, combined with the realization his life had been a lie, and the Greyscale reaching his brain.

This doesn’t seem to be an unusual take, from what I’ve read. I don’t ascribe myself, but then I am apparently much more sympathetic to poor old JonCon than most, and maybe I just don’t want to see it. To me he is one of the characters most committed to doing what he thinks is right, and rectifying his wrongs, and I think his wrongs are WAY overblown by himself, if not others.

The idea that he should have burned an entire town seems the stuff of fiction to me, in part because they don’t have traffic cams, there’s no certainty Robert is actually there, and in part because that uncertainty would likely remain after the town was burned to the ground; Robert is a large man, but a town of thousands will possess several large men, how would anyone know for certain which large man’s corpse was definitely Robert’s? Holding himself in such contempt because he didn’t do such a reckless, brutal and potentially pointless thing seems…dunno, very Catholic? I think Tywin is definitely ruthless enough to do something like that, but does that actually make it something he would do? I don’t think he’s that stupid, unless Stoney Sept were full of his offspring. 

Edited by James Arryn
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20 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

 

And Arya burning Kings Landing with Wildfire is a ridiculous take. Give your head a shake.

IF it happens, the closest thing to the Mad King is Cersei.

 

It's interesting, because in the first 3 books Dany had quite some dreams about the Red Keep and was even thinking about 'she doesn't wish to burn it down'. In the 5th book, her dreams shifted to the House with the Red Door and in AFFC, Cersei was introduced as an Aerys parallel and lover of wildfire.

I think it's quite possible that while writing the 4th book and deciding to let Dany stay in Meereen (the original plan - before the 5-year gap was scrapped - was to let her land in Westeros in the 4th book), GRRM changed his plans about who will be responsible for the burning of KL from Dany to Cersei.

The other reason this makes sense in my eyes is a narrative one:

1) Dany won't arrive in Westeros until the end of TWOW or the beginning of ADOS, and by that time the Long Night has started. She is characterized as a 'saviour' first and foremost, so I am sure she would concentrate on fighting the Others. If she plays a central role in defeating them (and since she satisfies the Azor Ahai role and Master Aemon - who tends to be right - is convinced he is the Princess who was Promised, it's very likely she will), she will be loved by the Westerosi despite her foreign origins and army and might be elected queen (if she wants) without war. Besides that, Westeros would concentrate on rebuilding after the Long Night ends, not war

2) There is a possibility that Dany would (unintentionally, triggering wildfire catches) burn KL when arriving to Westeros at the beginning of ADOS. My problem with such a scenario is that burning KL should be a climax of a book, so Cersei burning KL at the end of TWOW is much more fitting. It would also kill many of the new introduced characters in AFFC and ADWD so in ADOS we can concentrate on the original main cast.

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20 hours ago, James Arryn said:

This doesn’t seem to be an unusual take, from what I’ve read. I don’t ascribe myself, but then I am apparently much more sympathetic to poor old JonCon than most, and maybe I just don’t want to see it. To me he is one of the characters most committed to doing what he thinks is right, and rectifying his wrongs, and I think his wrongs are WAY overblown by himself, if not others.

The idea that he should have burned an entire town seems the stuff of fiction to me, in part because they don’t have traffic cams, there’s no certainty Robert is actually there, and in part because that uncertainty would likely remain after the town was burned to the ground

 

I don't think it's a stuff of fiction, he genuinely thinks that and he will be much more ruthless when it comes to Aegon's conquest.

That said, burning KL makes absolutely no sense from his part. It's not a ruthless act, it's a mad act, and much more fitting of Cersei (or it could unintentionally happen via Dany). 

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George R. R. Martin has carefully kept the western seas a secret.  There is something on that side of the planet that Daenerys needs to see.  It could be an island where the survivors of the winter can migrate to.  I don't know exactly but it is important enough for Qaithe to expend her energies to communicate.  Qaithe waited all this time for Daenerys and I don't think it is without cost to Qaithe herself.  The message is so important that the woman kept herself alive to deliver to Daenerys.  The Targaryen fleet will arrive somewhere on the west coast of Westeros.  The biggest obstacle to the throne are the Lannisters and have to be dealt with first.  

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