How will Sansa be found?

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

If Jon Snow can be Lord Commander of the Wall, anything is possible. At least LF doesn't have to be elected, and has the benefit of patronage.

Eh, no. First, he would have to be closer to 17 in order to meet this woman, bed her and then have a daughter by her nine moons later. And if Lysa pressured Jon A to get him a job in Gulltown, he wouldn't start out as chief. He would start at the bottom and work his way up, like what happened in King's Landing.

So again, Martin has given us a situation that is theoretically possible but extremely implausible. The more likely explanation is that Petyr's time as chief of the ports in no way supports a 14yo Alayne, and all the LD's know it. It was why Lady Waynewood's first question on meeting Sansa was "how old are you, child?" She was expecting a much younger girl. And then she says, "this girl is young and gently bred, and has suffered enough horrors." Sansa Stark has suffered plenty of horrors. What horrors has Alayne suffered?

[Springwatch]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Eh, no. First, he would have to be closer to 17 in order to meet this woman, bed her and then have a daughter by her nine moons later. And if Lysa pressured Jon A to get him a job in Gulltown, he wouldn't start out as chief. He would start at the bottom and work his way up, like what happened in King's Landing.

Jon didn't work his way up. He was immediately placed as an aide to the Lord Commander, which Sam identified as being groomed for the leadership role. And because, reasons, Jon became Lord Commander himself at sixteen, maybe seventeen.

LF could have benefited from parallel lucky breaks. He is known to have been raised with Lord Tully's daughters. Lord Tully likely found him a good place just to be sure he doesn't come wandering back again to bother Lysa. And LF is known to have serious talent for this kind of thing, so speedy promotion not improbable.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So again, Martin has given us a situation that is theoretically possible but extremely implausible. The more likely explanation is that Petyr's time as chief of the ports in no way supports a 14yo Alayne, and all the LD's know it.

I think they do suspect.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It was why Lady Waynewood's first question on meeting Sansa was "how old are you, child?" She was expecting a much younger girl. And then she says, "this girl is young and gently bred, and has suffered enough horrors." Sansa Stark has suffered plenty of horrors. What horrors has Alayne suffered?

If Lady W means Sansa Stark's horrors, she knows who she's dealing with and doesn't need to ask for an age. I assume the surface meaning of horrors is the murder of Lysa by Marillion.

ETA

Sorry can't answer any more replies, going to be away from keyboard for a few days.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Springwatch

[Nevets]

On 5/19/2023 at 9:43 AM, John Suburbs said:

Because her backstory is that he fathered her when he was chief of the port in Gulltown. So first, how likely is it that they would appoint an 18-yo nobody with no experience running anything as chief of the port -- and in fact he would have to be a young 18 or more likely 17 when he met Alayne's mother. Second, he only got his "minor sinecure" in King's Landing 10 years ago. If he was chief at Gulltown for any reasonable time, and had already displayed this financial prowess, he would have started at a higher level --- and that would have taken at least a year. So at best, Alayne should be no older than 12 -- just turning 13 tops.

Both Chella and Timmet have seen Sansa before. Timmet was there when Sansa was beaten in the lower baily. And Chella was guarding Sansa's room that night and they exchanged words:

Yes, the High Road is closed, so no one else will be on it. And they'll probably have to leave the road to get past, or get stuck. A foolhardy plan by a man with dreams of gold . . .

They would have to know Littlefinger's exact age or his work history, and then do the math.  Unlike today, this type of information will not necessarily be readily available.  Anyone who goes to the trouble is probably already suspicious and has a good idea of what is going on.

The story won't withstand close scrutiny, but I doubt it was intended to.  It is intended to account for Sansa's presence and forstall awkward questions.  And Eve if they suspect, they won't know.  And making a mistake on something like that can get you in trouble.

Also, lots of people would have good reason to keep quiet.  Littlefinger's supporters, such as they are, won't want to cause him any trouble.  And I think most of the Lords Declarant we're Stark supporters, so they will be inclined not to expose Sansa.  Plus, as I pointed out, suspecting and knowing are two different things.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

Jon didn't work his way up. He was immediately placed as an aide to the Lord Commander, which Sam identified as being groomed for the leadership role. And because, reasons, Jon became Lord Commander himself at sixteen, maybe seventeen.

LF could have benefited from parallel lucky breaks. He is known to have been raised with Lord Tully's daughters. Lord Tully likely found him a good place just to be sure he doesn't come wandering back again to bother Lysa. And LF is known to have serious talent for this kind of thing, so speedy promotion not improbable.

I think they do suspect.

If Lady W means Sansa Stark's horrors, she knows who she's dealing with and doesn't need to ask for an age. I assume the surface meaning of horrors is the murder of Lysa by Marillion.

ETA

Sorry can't answer any more replies, going to be away from keyboard for a few days.

Yes, I know Jon didn't work his way up. His was a special political case. Jon Arryn would have no reason to appoint teen-age Petyr to what is probably the most important commercial post in the Vale. A minor post first, then a rapid rise due to his magical financial prowess. No one knew of his "talents" before he demonstrated them, which is also an unlikely story that suggests Petyr has been bankrolled from the very beginning.

Petyr was driven from Lord Tully's castle in disgrace, having impregnated his daughter who is now Jon Arryn's wife and was chosen for him specifically because she is known to be fertile. Even of Jon doesn't know who impregnated her, he's smart enough to figure it out. So no, Petyr getting this major job right off the bat is extremely unlikely.

Yes, the LDs do suspect Alayne is Sansa, and one of the reasons is that her age is all wrong.

Lady W didn't know she was dealing with Sansa until she met Alayne and realized she was the wrong age. She's a pretty sharp old gal, but she is not magical. Marillion might serve as the "horror", if she knows the whole truth and that Alayne was almost flung out the moon door too. I don't see why Petyr would spread that part of the tale because it just requires more lies.

[John Suburbs]

46 minutes ago, Nevets said:

They would have to know Littlefinger's exact age or his work history, and then do the math.  Unlike today, this type of information will not necessarily be readily available.  Anyone who goes to the trouble is probably already suspicious and has a good idea of what is going on.

The story won't withstand close scrutiny, but I doubt it was intended to.  It is intended to account for Sansa's presence and forstall awkward questions.  And Eve if they suspect, they won't know.  And making a mistake on something like that can get you in trouble.

Also, lots of people would have good reason to keep quiet.  Littlefinger's supporters, such as they are, won't want to cause him any trouble.  And I think most of the Lords Declarant we're Stark supporters, so they will be inclined not to expose Sansa.  Plus, as I pointed out, suspecting and knowing are two different things.

Tyrion uncovered Petyr's backstory at King's Landing. There is no reason why the LDs couldn't do the same. Why would Petyr's time in Gulltown be a big secret. It's how he got the job in King's Landing. Of course the lords of the Vale would know who he was and how he rose to prominence. And the math is literally simple subtraction.

Nobody has acted on these suspicions so nobody has made any mistakes yet. And yes, this story was designed, by LIttlefinger, to fall apart quickly. Why?

Supports can become enemies very quickly. If just one lord decides this is a good way to get rid of the Lord Paramount so they could make a power grab for the Eyrie, this little deception could be a valuable weapon.

And my point wasn't that any of the LDs would act on this, but someone like Shaddrich might -- given the opportunity.

[Haus Berlin]

Sansa won’t be found as she won’t want to. Like ever. To twist Jaime‘s words about missing Arya into being about Sansa:

Who is going to say that she is Sansa Stark? Everyone the girl was close to is dead except for her sister (…)

Maybe Arya will take up her sister’s identity since her own identity is already taken by Jeyne Pool. Compared to her sister Sansa won’t be competitive enough to be ever herself again.

Sansa isn’t into the rich girl’s thing any longer. Lady is long dead. Sansa now is saving her own skin by observing how humans interact and it seems revolution is in the air with that many would-bes around. She is good off being no one.

[Nevets]

18 minutes ago, Haus Berlin said:

Sansa won’t be found as she won’t want to. Like ever. To twist Jaime‘s words about missing Arya into being about Sansa:

Who is going to say that she is Sansa Stark? Everyone the girl was close to is dead except for her sister (…)

Maybe Arya will take up her sister’s identity since her own identity is already taken by Jeyne Pool. Compared to her sister Sansa won’t be competitive enough to be ever herself again.

Sansa isn’t into the rich girl’s thing any longer. Lady is long dead. Sansa now is saving her own skin by observing how humans interact and it seems revolution is in the air with that many would-bes around. She is good off being no one.

Many people know what Sansa looks like.  She was a prominent figure at Court until her disappearance, which wasn't that long ago.  It's not like Arya, who nobody paid attention to in Kings Landing, and has been gone from the North for two years or so.  And people who knew her from Winterfell are dead or imprisoned.

Arya couldn't pretend to be her anyway.  The descriptions aren't even close.  In any case, Sansa is learning the arts of politics and exerting influence.  She's being set up by Martin to be a player.  She'll probably reveal herself when she's good and ready.

[Angel Eyes]

5 hours ago, Nevets said:

Many people know what Sansa looks like.  She was a prominent figure at Court until her disappearance, which wasn't that long ago.  It's not like Arya, who nobody paid attention to in Kings Landing, and has been gone from the North for two years or so.  And people who knew her from Winterfell are dead or imprisoned.

Arya couldn't pretend to be her anyway.  The descriptions aren't even close.  In any case, Sansa is learning the arts of politics and exerting influence.  She's being set up by Martin to be a player.  She'll probably reveal herself when she's good and ready.

Always wondered how disguising Jeyne as "Arya" would be pulled off and allowed. Technically Ramsay would be bedding an 11-year-old.

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Always wondered how disguising Jeyne as "Arya" would be pulled off and allowed. Technically Ramsay would be bedding an 11-year-old.

I doubt they would know exactly how old she was .  Most likely, just that she was younger than Sansa, who is younger than Robb.  Still, that puts her 13-14 at most, which is young even for Westeros.  But we are dealing with Boltons, so I doubt anyone is going to make a fuss.

[Springwatch]

On 5/22/2023 at 9:52 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, I know Jon didn't work his way up. His was a special political case.

Jon got a massive plot gift. That's how GRRM's universe works.

On 5/22/2023 at 9:52 PM, John Suburbs said:

Jon Arryn would have no reason to appoint teen-age Petyr to what is probably the most important commercial post in the Vale. A minor post first, then a rapid rise due to his magical financial prowess. No one knew of his "talents" before he demonstrated them, which is also an unlikely story that suggests Petyr has been bankrolled from the very beginning.

Petyr was driven from Lord Tully's castle in disgrace, having impregnated his daughter who is now Jon Arryn's wife and was chosen for him specifically because she is known to be fertile. Even of Jon doesn't know who impregnated her, he's smart enough to figure it out. So no, Petyr getting this major job right off the bat is extremely unlikely.

Jon Arryn doesn't know - there're a lot of men and boys about. Lord Tully does know, but is moved by Lysa's suffering. Either could have done her the favour benefiting her childhood friend. Once in place he can rise by merit, just like Jon Snow did.

On 5/22/2023 at 9:52 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the LDs do suspect Alayne is Sansa, and one of the reasons is that her age is all wrong.

Lady W didn't know she was dealing with Sansa until she met Alayne and realized she was the wrong age. She's a pretty sharp old gal, but she is not magical. Marillion might serve as the "horror", if she knows the whole truth and that Alayne was almost flung out the moon door too. I don't see why Petyr would spread that part of the tale because it just requires more lies.

I don't know.... Seems to me the suspicious thing happened when Petyr arrived from KL with a completely unknown young daughter shortly after Sansa Stark notoriously went missing - also from KL, also a similar age and beauty. The lords would be interested to see Tully blue eyes and high cheekbones like Lysa's, and Cat's. 

In that case, Lady W is expecting the answer 'thirteen' to the age question, but 'fourteen' won't put her off either.

Still, witnessing a murder would be horrors enough for most people; Lady W's not revealing her hand yet.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

On 5/28/2023 at 5:31 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Always wondered how disguising Jeyne as "Arya" would be pulled off and allowed. Technically Ramsay would be bedding an 11-year-old.

Tywin pulled that off because it's a scam, to give a fake reward and mean for Roose Bolton to legitimise his authority in the North just so the Lannisters could get their hands on the North later via Tyrion and Sansa's child. 

[astarkchoice]

41 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Tywin pulled that off because it's a scam, to give a fake reward and mean for Roose Bolton to legitimise his authority in the North just so the Lannisters could get their hands on the North later via Tyrion and Sansa's child. 

Yeah i think the original plan was to establish a powerful  house lannister of winterfell.with tyrion and sansa!!. whereas ramsay is free to establish house bolton of the hornwoods (to allow rooses new frey  son to live). Once the purple wedding happens they send ramsay  instead to winterfell with a 'stark bride'  as  thats a priority  to secure the north. 

Edited June 12, 2023 by astarkchoice