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US Politics: #Musky DeSaster


DMC
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Just spent several days in a suburban conservative outpost with boomers.  Here is my report.

1.  Hates and would not vote for Trump.

2.  Hates Biden.  Will not vote for Biden unless 1 is only other choice.

3.  Anti-abortion from a moral standpoint. but believes the government should get out of it.  The “government is telling people what to do with their bodies and that is bad” is resonating with the educated wannabe libertarian types.

4.  In favor of significantly relaxing immigration restrictions, but also in favor of deporting with prejudice any person who enters the country outside the legal process.

5.  Was intrigued by DeSantis, but no longer.  To quote “he has little man syndrome and is a vindictive SOB.  Not someone we should have as president.”  However, if choosing between Biden and DeSantis, would choose DeSantis.

6.  Doesn’t have a 2024 person yet, but if asked to choose so far, Nikki Haley (?).  

7.  Pro Gun (and gun owner), but anti-assault weapon, pro background check, and pro licensure requirements (to quote “you need a license to drive a goddam car and you should have a license to shoot a goddam gun.”).

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Considering the hysterical screaming of MTG the other day - yesterday? - whenever -- that being called out as a white supremacist was the same as being called a en-word, and the white supremacists are the actual victims of racism, not en-words.  Again, what is the problem white supremacist racists have with being called white supremacist racists, since that is what They out-and-out advocate in public, not even behind closed doors, and what They are, every time They open Their ugly mouths?  I don't get it.  Even by wearing Their magrat caps They are advertising Their conviction regarding white supremacy.  So why aren't we -- and even Black people -- supposed to use the words that They are?  What is Their problem?

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/marjorie-taylor-greene-jamaal-bowman-n-word-rcna85188

 

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

So, policy-wise basically agrees with Biden on everything, but hates him regardless.  Sounds about right.

And likes... Nikki Haley?? I am wincing in embarrassment as I'm reading her 'accomplishments': https://nikkihaley.com/record-of-results/

Known as the 'Iran Whisperer '? Are you kidding me?

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56 minutes ago, Week said:

And likes... Nikki Haley?? I am wincing in embarrassment as I'm reading her 'accomplishments': https://nikkihaley.com/record-of-results/

Known as the 'Iran Whisperer '? Are you kidding me?

There's always been this weird strain amongst Indian-Americans that desperately wants to belong to the party that has contempt for people like them. 

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1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Just spent several days in a suburban conservative outpost with boomers.  Here is my report.

1.  Hates and would not vote for Trump.

2.  Hates Biden.  Will not vote for Biden unless 1 is only other choice.

3.  Anti-abortion from a moral standpoint. but believes the government should get out of it.  The “government is telling people what to do with their bodies and that is bad” is resonating with the educated wannabe libertarian types.

4.  In favor of significantly relaxing immigration restrictions, but also in favor of deporting with prejudice any person who enters the country outside the legal process.

5.  Was intrigued by DeSantis, but no longer.  To quote “he has little man syndrome and is a vindictive SOB.  Not someone we should have as president.”  However, if choosing between Biden and DeSantis, would choose DeSantis.

6.  Doesn’t have a 2024 person yet, but if asked to choose so far, Nikki Haley (?).  

7.  Pro Gun (and gun owner), but anti-assault weapon, pro background check, and pro licensure requirements (to quote “you need a license to drive a goddam car and you should have a license to shoot a goddam gun.”).

These are 7 different people right?

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19 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

These are 7 different people right?

This is one person.

And no, doesn’t agree with Biden on everything.  Taxes are a huge hang up.  Like a massive hang up.

I think the Nikki Haley thing is that she is viewed as the best of a bad lot in terms of “in the race so far.”  I don’t think it is thought through.

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22 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

These are 7 different people right?

Zabz was actually at that Nutty Professor dinner scene where Eddie Murphy plays all the different roles...

 

2 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Taxes are a huge hang up.  Like a massive hang up.

Of course.

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20 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Sure, but she’s a living breathing reminder of both cognitive decline and a political machine being willing and able to ~ hide it for quite a while. Put it this way, it definitely doesn’t help.

It doesn't help Biden much, but it doesn't help Trump either. DeSandman is a spring chicken compared to both, but he won't run afowl of the geriatric god king.

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17 minutes ago, Madame deVenoge said:

This is most of white, suburban, moderate Georgia. You want to keep Georgia purple? This is it.

I will point out that DeSantis as seen as a “useful idiot” for the most part, and also Kamala Harris has ZERO chances, here.

Hate to say it, but our best bet is a Trump/Biden re-match; the only way that Biden wins handily, here.

Biden didn't win Georgia in 2020 because of white, suburban, moderate Georgia.  Hell, Warnock technically lost the suburban vote to Walker in 2022 49-48 and still won.

Do agree though that DeSantis would be heavily favored as the nominee in Georgia, ceteris paribus, whereas Trump would be the clear underdog.  But that's regardless of the Dem nominee (who is going to be Biden so that doesn't really matter anyway).

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9 minutes ago, DMC said:

Biden didn't win Georgia in 2020 because of white, suburban, moderate Georgia.  Hell, Warnock technically lost the suburban vote to Walker in 2022 49-48 and still won.

Do agree though that DeSantis would be heavily favored as the nominee in Georgia, ceteris paribus, whereas Trump would be the clear underdog.  But that's regardless of the Dem nominee (who is going to be Biden so that doesn't really matter anyway).

But he won because he kept the numbers tight, right?

It's not that losing Georgia is necessarily fatal, but the reason he loses Georgia (which could be the white, suburban, moderate Georgia souring a little on him), could also lead to defeat in say, WI and AZ (or NV) and that's the election right there. 

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2 minutes ago, Madame deVenoge said:

You and I both know that Georgia requires two things:

1. Black turnout along with

2. White suburban moderates voting the same way.

This is why Stacey Abrams lost 2022, Kemp won handily, and also why 2022 Warnock still hung on.

....Except as I just pointed out Warnock lost the suburbs - overall - by a point in 2022.  When you take out non-white suburbans, stands to reason Warnock lost white suburban moderates by a considerable margin.

Kemp won handily because he was a popular incumbent.

4 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

It's not that losing Georgia is necessarily fatal, but the reason he loses Georgia (which could be the white, suburban, moderate Georgia souring a little on him), could also lead to defeat in say, WI and AZ (or NV) and that's the election right there. 

I was mainly responding to the emphasis on white suburbia when the fact is Biden - and Warnock and Ossoff - won Georgia by running up black turnout.  Obviously Biden won all the states you mentioned by such a small margin any significant shift among any demographic could cause him to lose.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

....Except as I just pointed out Warnock lost the suburbs - overall - by a point in 2022.  When you take out non-white suburbans, stands to reason Warnock lost white suburban moderates by a considerable margin.

Kemp won handily because he was a popular incumbent.

I was mainly responding to the emphasis on white suburbia when the fact is Biden - and Warnock and Ossoff - won Georgia by running up black turnout.  Obviously Biden won all the states you mentioned by such a small margin any significant shift among any demographic could cause him to lose.

Yeah, that's RDS's potential path.  Keep Trump's 2020 base and just win a sliver of Biden voters.  Easier said than done, ofc. 

I guess another question is whether Warnock not being up for election potentially hurt Biden in terms of African-American turnout? 

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3 minutes ago, Madame deVenoge said:

No one has won a significant statewide race in Georgia solely because of black turnout.

I mean, post-reconstruction no one has ever won any state "solely" because of black turnout.  Again, my issue was more with your original post's emphasis.  I'm not saying you meant to imply this, but it rather obviously feeds into the age-old idea that Biden/Dems' reelection strategy needs to focus/predominate on white suburban (usually male) moderates.  And I think that'd be a mistake as an electoral strategy. 

More importantly it's a mistake to over-emphasize that demo at the expense of others -- especially considering black voters, and particularly black women, are due much of the credit for turning Georgia.  Honestly, Biden has done a good balancing act trying to maintain the big tent.  But the Democratic party is not the 90s party of Bill Clinton wherein all Carville and Dick Morris cared about were the white moderates.  

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10 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I guess another question is whether Warnock not being up for election potentially hurt Biden in terms of African-American turnout? 

I dunno, certainly a valid hypothesis.  OTOH, the people that were most responsible for boosting that turnout will still be trying to maintain it next year.  Plus, once voters become engaged/start voting repeatedly, they usually don't dropoff (albeit that's not always the case).  We'll see.

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Am I the only one who thinks the for and against 14th Amendment unilateral raising of the debt ceiling is kind of premature? These deals always come together at the last minute, after lots of kabuki and back-and-forth. 

And if Biden does attempt to unilaterally raise the debt limit claiming he has the power to do so under the 14th amendment, will McCarthy really sue him? Not sure if anyone other than the Speaker acting for the House will have standing. 
Even if he does sue him, will the claim be disposed of anytime soon before the 2024 election?

A lot of the chatter I'm seeing is this reductive "the Republican SCOTUS justices will stop Biden" for partisan reasons or "the Republican SCOTUS justices will let Biden" because they are cowards.  

it's the market, not the courts, that will dictate the outcome here.  Even if this case does somehow get to the SC toute suite on the shadow docket expect the SC at worst to take away Biden's "leverage" by granting some form of injunction that will take effect after 4 weeks.

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1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

And if Biden does attempt to unilaterally raise the debt limit claiming he has the power to do so under the 14th amendment, will McCarthy really sue him? Not sure if anyone other than the Speaker acting for the House will have standing. 
Even if he does sue him, will the claim be disposed of anytime soon before the 2024 election?

 

While Biden has maintained he has the authority to do it, both the White House and Yellen have been very clear they aren't going to use the 14th amendment argument. 

If they did, yes, it would most certainly go to court and - as you said - SCOTUS would almost certainly invoke an injunction very quickly.  How would they ultimately rule?  I dunno, it's a very weird case, but I wouldn't be optimistic.  And it's rather clear that the administration's reticence is because they aren't either.

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