US Politics: #Musky DeSaster

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I guess another question is whether Warnock not being up for election potentially hurt Biden in terms of African-American turnout? 

I dunno, certainly a valid hypothesis.  OTOH, the people that were most responsible for boosting that turnout will still be trying to maintain it next year.  Plus, once voters become engaged/start voting repeatedly, they usually don't dropoff (albeit that's not always the case).  We'll see.

[Gaston de Foix]

Am I the only one who thinks the for and against 14th Amendment unilateral raising of the debt ceiling is kind of premature? These deals always come together at the last minute, after lots of kabuki and back-and-forth. 

And if Biden does attempt to unilaterally raise the debt limit claiming he has the power to do so under the 14th amendment, will McCarthy really sue him? Not sure if anyone other than the Speaker acting for the House will have standing. 
Even if he does sue him, will the claim be disposed of anytime soon before the 2024 election?

A lot of the chatter I'm seeing is this reductive "the Republican SCOTUS justices will stop Biden" for partisan reasons or "the Republican SCOTUS justices will let Biden" because they are cowards.  

it's the market, not the courts, that will dictate the outcome here.  Even if this case does somehow get to the SC toute suite on the shadow docket expect the SC at worst to take away Biden's "leverage" by granting some form of injunction that will take effect after 4 weeks.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

And if Biden does attempt to unilaterally raise the debt limit claiming he has the power to do so under the 14th amendment, will McCarthy really sue him? Not sure if anyone other than the Speaker acting for the House will have standing. 
Even if he does sue him, will the claim be disposed of anytime soon before the 2024 election?

 

While Biden has maintained he has the authority to do it, both the White House and Yellen have been very clear they aren't going to use the 14th amendment argument. 

If they did, yes, it would most certainly go to court and - as you said - SCOTUS would almost certainly invoke an injunction very quickly.  How would they ultimately rule?  I dunno, it's a very weird case, but I wouldn't be optimistic.  And it's rather clear that the administration's reticence is because they aren't either.

[Gaston de Foix]

33 minutes ago, DMC said:

While Biden has maintained he has the authority to do it, both the White House and Yellen have been very clear they aren't going to use the 14th amendment argument. 

If they did, yes, it would most certainly go to court and - as you said - SCOTUS would almost certainly invoke an injunction very quickly.  How would they ultimately rule?  I dunno, it's a very weird case, but I wouldn't be optimistic.  And it's rather clear that the administration's reticence is because they aren't either.

Yeah, I don't really see it happening, so not sure why everyone is endlessly debating it. 

Thinking through the problem, the three obstacles to a clean debt ceiling raise are (i) the (slim) R House majority which means the Dems can't get to 218; (ii) the Speaker's power to thwart a bill from going to the floor even if it has 218 votes; (iii) the ability of Senate Republicans to filibuster and the (supposed) lack of 10 votes for a clean raise as set out in the Mike Lee letter with 43 R signatories. 

Biden could have tried to cut a deal with 4 or 5 House Republicans from Biden districts but that wouldn't solve problems (ii) and (iii) right? Even if we assume Senate Republicans are bluffing and will fold, McCarthy is not going to vote for his own execution by HFC.  And there are not 4-5 House Reps who are willing, at this moment, to cut out McCarthy and offer Biden a better deal.  They all voted to get McCarthy into the room with Biden. 

At the same time, I imagine that McCarthy will need to put up a significant number of votes to get any deal he gets through the House.  He may not have those votes, even if he secures a deal.  

Edited May 21 by Gaston de Foix

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Biden could have tried to cut a deal with 4 or 5 House Republicans from Biden districts but that wouldn't solve problems (ii) and (iii) right?

House Dems have launched a discharge petition.  The problem, as you mentioned, is they're very likely to get any House Republicans to sign on.  Why would they?  McCarthy does appear to be getting Biden to move on certain things and probably end up gaining some concessions.  There's not a single House Republican member that wants to undermine that (well, outside the HFC I suppose).

As for the GOP Senate, well, McConnell folded twice in Biden's first two years.  If the House Dems are successful in passing a discharge petition (they won't), then I imagine McConnell could round up 8 GOP Senators to sign on.

But yeah, all these "plan Bs" don't seem very plausible to me.  In all likelihood, there's going to be a deal struck between Biden and McCarthy.  It's really just a matter of how much Biden will have to give up.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

21 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

This is one person.

And no, doesn’t agree with Biden on everything.  Taxes are a huge hang up.  Like a massive hang up.

I think the Nikki Haley thing is that she is viewed as the best of a bad lot in terms of “in the race so far.”  I don’t think it is thought through.

Sounds like my Dad.  

[Mlle. Zabzie]

28 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Sounds like my Dad.  

Funny, it is my Dad

[Phylum of Alexandria]

44 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Sounds like my Dad.  

Funny, it is my Dad

Your dads seem a lot more normal than my parents!

[Mlle. Zabzie]

7 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Your dads seem a lot more normal than my parents!

My father and normal had a passing acquaintance in about 1950.  They have never spoken since.

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

My father and normal had a passing acquaintance in about 1950.  They have never spoken since.

Interesting.  For mine it was 1952.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

22 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

My father and normal had a passing acquaintance in about 1950.  They have never spoken since.

You know what they say about families...everything is relative!

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Funny, it is my Dad

My Dad grew up in Winston-Salem NC and I think we aren’t that far apart in age… interesting…

[Varysblackfyre321]

Gotta admit this response brought a tear to my eye. Shame more parents of queer kids can’t/don’t act so beautifully.

I felt an uncompromising rage at the republican senator weaponizing her family to try and cow people out of resisting her bigoted onslaught. Typical but still enraging.

Edited May 21 by Varysblackfyre321

[Zorral]

Quote

"Do you want to see another investigation of Hillary and Bill Clinton?" Bartiromo wondered. "Because in the Durham report, John Durham wrote that while they were pursuing Trump, they made no effort to investigate the claim that Hillary Clinton was taking money from foreigners for her Clinton Global Initiative and the Clinton Foundation."

https://www.rawstory.com/jim-jordan-hillary-clinton/

Hillary was the first woman upon whom They began Their war on women.

In the meantime They have destroyed three of the major public universities.  This is huge and it's hardly even talked about: the University of Texas, the University of Wisconsin and the University of North Carolina.

Now "destroyed" may be somewhat of an exaggeration -- but you can now take guns into the classroom in TX ....

How bad is it?  An elected Republican in Florida is leaving Florida with his family because the state fees too dangerous.

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, Zorral said:

they made no effort to investigate the claim that Hillary Clinton was taking money from foreigners for her Clinton Global Initiative and the Clinton Foundation."

LOL.  This is just so remarkably - and obviously disingenuously - ignorant on its face it's ludicrous.  The Clinton Global Initiative, under the auspices of the Clinton Foundation, is a 501(c)(3) organization.  Which means it is entirely legal to accept donations from foreigners - or indeed fund foreign subsidiaries.

Further, you know what else is classified as 501(c)(3) in order to enjoy tax-exempt status?  Churches.  Love to see Jordan try to explain that one in terms of foreign investment.  What abjectly pathetic tools they are.

[James Arryn]

The NAACP has issued a travel advisory for the state of Florida. Basis being the hostility and significant risk of violation of the civil rights of African-Americans and the LGBTQ community.

Edited May 22 by James Arryn

[Tywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

My Dad grew up in Winston-Salem NC and I think we aren’t that far apart in age… interesting…

Dis you?

Edited May 22 by Tywin et al.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

34 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

The NAACP has issued a travel advisory for the state of Florida. Basis being the hostility and significant risk of violation of the civil rights of African-Americans and the LGBTQ community.

If things keep up they’ll need to start publishing a “Green Book” again.   
 

https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Green-Book-travel-guide

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

20 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Dis you?

No… I ment Zabzie and myself.  That said my Mom was 23 and my Dad was 24 when I was born.  I tend to roll my eyes when they (my Mom more than my Dad) tell their 52 year old son… “I’m a lot older than you…”

[Tywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

No… I ment Zabzie and myself.  That said my Mom was 23 and my Dad was 24 when I was born.  I tend to roll my eyes when they (my Mom more than my Dad) tell their 52 year old son… “I’m a lot older than you…”

I was just giving you shit. That scene always cracks me up. I've got old parents, my dad had old parents, and if I ever find someone I'll be an old parent. Just happens that way sometimes.