NBA Playoffs - Joker's Wild

[Relic]

yeah Warriors def wanted to dump Poole's contract. Instant buyers remorse. Hopefully being a diff team works out for the guy

[briantw]

https://va.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_rwnwwuFyDD1zzlicr.mp4

LeBron sex scandal incoming? 

[James Arryn]

So the Rockets debate at 4 was Amen or Cam. Decided pretty firmly on Amen, took him. Then when Whitmore started dropping they were frantically working the phones to try and get back in the lottery to get him…Stone says his most active draft night ever, but they just couldn’t find a match, were pretty frustrated…then he drops into their laps at 20. Two top 5-7 talents without making a move. Doesn’t remotely even out for missing out on Wemby/recent lottery bad luck, but it’s a start. Their freak athleticism now can come at you in waves. 

[Maithanet]

So I was thinking more about the Beal/Booker/Durant trio in Phoenix.  By far the closest comparison I can think of is the superteam Durant formed in Brooklyn with Kyrie and Harden.  Now, Beal + Booker is more stable and less insane than Harden/Kyrie (although Beal has plenty of injury history).  But it comes down to three guys who are all on-ball playmakers/scorers as their primary skillset.  I imagine in crunch time it will be mostly Booker handling it with Beal and Durant moving around, which is pretty good, but still not fully taking advantage of all Beal/Durant can do. 

But Durant/Kyrie/Harden lost because of a combination of injuries, lack of depth and poor defense.  If Durant is still as good as he was in 2021, then maybe they can make it work.  But he didn't look nearly that dominant in 2023, and he's turning 35 in a couple months. 

IMO the Suns would have been much better off signing/trading for a guy who is primarily a great defender, with so-so offense.  And who is available that might fit that bill?  Draymond Green.  Defensively, Green/Ayton/Durant would be very formidable.  I don't know how well that would work offensively, since Green is pretty miserable outside the pick-and-roll and you already have one non-shooter in Ayton.  But just spitballing, it seems like Phoenix lost to Denver because they didn't have the defensive chops.  Then their huge offseason move is to take on a huge contract for a guy who is top 15 offensively, but totally mediocre defensively (with injury concerns to boot). 

[BigFatCoward]

 

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If Durant is still as good as he was in 2021, then maybe they can make it work.  But he didn't look nearly that dominant in 2023, and he's turning 35 in a couple months. 

 

He averaged 56-40-92 on nearly 30 points, before his injuries he was front runner for MVP.  How didn't he look that great?  Nobody knows when someone will fall of a cliff, but he is still easily top 5 in the league. 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

He averaged 56-40-92 on nearly 30 points, before his injuries he was front runner for MVP.  How didn't he look that great?  Nobody knows when someone will fall of a cliff, but he is still easily top 5 in the league. 

This isn't about the regular season, so I don't much care about what numbers he put up.  For great NBA players, the regular season is just an extended preseason before the tournament. 

Durant looked like the best player in the world in 2021, and nearly beat Giannis and the Bucks with a vastly inferior team around him. 

In 2023, with a healthy Booker beside him, he couldn't dominate to nearly the same extent, and the best player in the series was pretty clearly Jokic. 

[Proudfeet]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

before his injuries he was front runner for MVP.

That's the thing isn't it? I don't think he'll fall off a cliff in production, but given his age, it's not a given that he will return to peak form. 

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

But just spitballing, it seems like Phoenix lost to Denver because they didn't have the defensive chops.

That is true, but given how the games went, they still could have eked out the win if Booker didn't run out of steam and Durant played slightly better. 

Also, with the players they had, I thought the biggest problem was Ayton. He did okay but looked completely disinterested and it felt like he was just going through the motions. Maybe he was just outplayed by Jokic, but even if that was the case, I thought Landale did a better job. 

For next season, it looks like Denver might lose Brown who is a key piece of their 8 man rotation. And Green is getting a year older. Maybe the Suns and the other teams can look forward to them regressing if the rest of Denver's bench doesn't step up.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

That is true, but given how the games went, they still could have eked out the win if Booker didn't run out of steam and Durant played slightly better. 

Also, with the players they had, I thought the biggest problem was Ayton. He did okay but looked completely disinterested and it felt like he was just going through the motions. Maybe he was just outplayed by Jokic, but even if that was the case, I thought Landale did a better job.

Phoenix is definitely betting that they can straight up outscore Denver.  Teams that go all-in on offense almost never win the title (I can't think of any examples off the top of my head).  So it's a risky bet, but I will say that having Beal as your third option offensively is pretty damn scary. 

I agree that Ayton was really poor in the Denver series.  It is hard to know what was going on with him.  He needs to be better though.  Maybe he'll never be a star, but with his physical tools he needs to at least be an average starter, and he didn't look it vs Denver.

Quote

For next season, it looks like Denver might lose Brown who is a key piece of their 8 man rotation. And Green is getting a year older. Maybe the Suns and the other teams can look forward to them regressing if the rest of Denver's bench doesn't step up.

You're relying on Jeff Green aging to make Denver worse?  Wow, didn't expect that.  Green was fine, but...there are a lot of NBA players that can do what Jeff Green does. 

[BigFatCoward]

Denvers core/best players are likely to get better so that evens the bench getting worse. 

 

[Tywin et al.]

56 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Phoenix is definitely betting that they can straight up outscore Denver.  Teams that go all-in on offense almost never win the title (I can't think of any examples off the top of my head).  So it's a risky bet, but I will say that having Beal as your third option offensively is pretty damn scary. 

The problem is their three best players have all proven to be injury risks lately. I wouldn't worry too much about Booker, but Durant and Beal are concerns and as everyone has said they have no depth. They should probably trade Ayton for a mid tier center and another piece or two. 

3 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Denvers core/best players are likely to get better so that evens the bench getting worse. 

 

Probably not. But the key is they fit together really well and completement each other. 

[Maithanet]

49 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Denvers core/best players are likely to get better so that evens the bench getting worse.

Playoff and Finals experience counts for a surprising amount in the NBA.  None of Denver's core is old, and they will be an even more difficult out in the future.  They'll keep Murray and Jokic, but at some point either injury or salary cap will prevent them from holding on to all of Gordon/Porter Jr/Pope, all of whom are great fits for what they're trying to do.  But if that core 5 is healthy, they are going to be an extremely tough team to beat. 

[BigFatCoward]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Playoff and Finals experience counts for a surprising amount in the NBA.  None of Denver's core is old, and they will be an even more difficult out in the future.  They'll keep Murray and Jokic, but at some point either injury or salary cap will prevent them from holding on to all of Gordon/Porter Jr/Pope, all of whom are great fits for what they're trying to do.  But if that core 5 is healthy, they are going to be an extremely tough team to beat. 

And just having won and knowing you are the best. There's a thing in cycling where wearing the yellow jersey at the tour de france gives cyclists super powers. 

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

And just having won and knowing you are the best. There's a thing in cycling where wearing the yellow jersey at the tour de france gives cyclists super powers. 

Doubly so if the other drugs they've taken also give them super powers. 

[Proudfeet]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I agree that Ayton was really poor in the Denver series.  It is hard to know what was going on with him.  He needs to be better though.  Maybe he'll never be a star, but with his physical tools he needs to at least be an average starter, and he didn't look it vs Denver.

I think he has shown enough to prove that he has the ability. It looked more like an attitude/effort issue to me, maybe it was dissatisfaction from lack of touches on the offensive end, or disagreement with the team/coach or some lingering bitterness over how his free agency went the previous year, but he didn't look like he was even trying. 

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

You're relying on Jeff Green aging to make Denver worse?  Wow, didn't expect that.  Green was fine, but...there are a lot of NBA players that can do what Jeff Green does. 

Yes and no.

No, I don't think that he will necessarily be worse next season, but its hard to know when any player in their mid thirties will start to slow down. Of course, other teams have players at that age with much larger roles, but with regards to Denver becoming worse, there isn't anything else with the rest of the rotation set and still relatively young. It's more about potentially losing Brown.

Yes, Denver has been struggling with the backup PF/C position. Denver managed to shore up their non-Jokic minutes in the playoffs by playing Gordon in Jokic's place, but then they'd need someone to takeover for Gordon and so on. There is a limit to playing the other starters up/down a position. 

Also, you might be selling Green a little short. He might not be a game winning difference maker, but he's well rounded enough to not have an obvious weakness and is also surprisingly athletic. If Green is unplayable, would there be players available at that salary range and be satisfied with a small role? Could Denver get them? Why hasn't Nnaji or Cancar taken his minutes?

[James Arryn]

Exactly the kind of dumb ‘accelerate the process’ move I was worried about/stupid teams make because cap room must be spent or it turns into Chernobyl. 43 mill/year for fucking Fred VanVleet. I’d have been ok with going after a vet 5 because right now they can’t really go big, but not this shit. 

Edited July 1 by James Arryn

[Maithanet]

I'm in the same boat, I have no idea why the wizards just made Kyle kuzma a 100 million dollar man.  The wizards are starting a tank, what could he possibly offer them other than maybe improving from 25 to 30 wins, which is exactly what you don't want to do!  Just be bad for a couple of years!  This isn't hard!

[Slurktan]

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

Exactly the kind of dumb ‘accelerate the process’ move I was worried about/stupid teams make because cap room must be spent or it turns into Chernobyl. 43 mill/year for fucking Fred VanVleet. I’d have been ok with going after a vet 5 because right now they can’t really go big, but not this shit. 

I like Fred but he was on the downhill last year and that is a disgusting overpay so I'm glad the Raps didn't do it.

[Proudfeet]

Yeah, if you have cap space that you need to use, the solution demonstrated in recent years is to take on salary from other teams for picks. If you're lucky you might even rehabilitate the value of those players. Signing free agents to large salaries doesn't make much sense. Or maybe teams that are already all out of picks for the foreseeable future and that isn't an option anymore?

I like that VanVleet got paid more than Irving though. Did the Mavs short Irving of the full max or something?

[Tywin et al.]

VanVleet's deal is nuts, but he was always going to get something like that. The Mavs are insane to offer Kyrie what they did though. We need to place bets on when Luka demands a trade. 

Green's deal by comparison isn't horrible and at least he's earned it sans punching a teammate in the face. 

[Argonath Diver]

Salaries in the NBA are utterly baffling. 

VanVleet?! 42m man?? Jesus. And over in Portland, Dame's colossal contract, while still being a phenomenal player, is absolutely catastrophic to his Blazers, and also makes him super hard to trade.

On my end of things, I'm sadly satisfied with the Vucevic 65m deal. When the Bulls are awful again he'll likely retain value assuming he doesn't break down.