The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Kalbear]

So, yeah, non-Ukrainians are not invading their own town and are almost but not quite capturing a stockpile of nuclear weapons. This once again proves that logic, reason and clear plot lines are out the window and we should expect the absolute stupidest shit. 

[ThinkerX]

Do have to wonder how many others will 'join in the fun' - and what Putin's reaction will be should these Ukrainian backed rebels somehow capture and hold a major Russian city...

[Werthead]

The "free Russian" forces have dug in at Kozinka and Glotovo on the border. It looks like they are still contesting Grayvoron. Grayvoron is actually an interesting target, as its bound by the Vorskla and Hraivornka Rivers and is highly defensible. They won't be able to hold it for long against a concerted Russian attack, of course, but there's not much in the region. Russia would have to move some heavy forces in, probably from elsewhere on the line in Ukraine, which can only benefit Ukraine (as Telegram channels are witheringly pointing out).

The free Russian forces have captured some equipment in Grayvoron, including some APCs and IVFs.

Russian civilians in the region are furious upon reporting to their air raid shelters to find them locked and sealed on the order of the local government.

In a bonus, elsewhere in Ukraine, AA systems took out 20 Iranian Shahed drones, four Kh-101s (which are supposed to be stealth cruise missiles and impossible to hit with AA) and they reportedly hit an Su-35S, but unclear if it was downed. That would only be the fourth Su-35 lost since the start of the war. But the second in the last week, suggesting that Russia is trying to bring its more advanced aircraft into the combat zone to make up for lack of capacity elsewhere and running afoul of Ukraine's much more beefed-up AA systems.

[Maithanet]

Is there any chance that the Ukrainians are planning on going through Russian territory to outflank the (well fortified) defenses in Luhansk?  That would certainly be outside the box thinking, and the Russians don't seem to have the ability to stop them...

[Werthead]

Owch. A Ukrainian S-300 (remember when Russia claimed to have eliminated 100% of Ukraine's S-300s in the first few days of the war? Good times) intercepts a Russian Kh-101 stealth cruise missile at almost pointblank range.

Meanwhile, the "Free Russian Army" has apparently launched two more spoiling attacks across the border from Ukraine to the east of where they attacked yesterday. It's unclear if they are holding territory or effectively raids. At one point they apparently held more cumulative territory than the entirety of Bakhmut, but a bit meaningless if they've had to give some of it up already. Looks like whack-a-mole along the border there, and some indications that Russian units are reluctant to advance too far because they're inside Ukraine's artillery range, Ukraine having hugely reinforced that area of the border in response to threats of a northern invasion late last year.

The Russians claim to have driven the FRA back from Greyvoronsky but their militants have said they simply pulled back once Russian tanks started appearing on the scene. The fog of war is strong at the moment.

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Is there any chance that the Ukrainians are planning on going through Russian territory to outflank the (well fortified) defenses in Luhansk?  That would certainly be outside the box thinking, and the Russians don't seem to have the ability to stop them...

Interesting idea and not impossible, although logistically challenging. 

The 74th Guards Motorized Rifles Brigade has apparently been tasked with recapturing the border area and re-securing it.

[Wilbur]

Good job, Putin.

Way to turn the entirety of Eastern Ukraine and the border region in Russia into a real-world simulacrum of a FPS video game.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Russians apparently pretending they’ve beaten the rebels

 

[karaddin]

I know about as much as Jon Snow and it was still immediately obviously staged 

[Toth]

I've been following the news cycle of this troll maneuver with cautious skepticism. From the beginning it was clear that Ukraine wasn't going to make a genuine attack into Russia, but instead it was a raid to force Russia to shuffle enough troops to defend their borders again, which in turn could very well open up weaknesses where Ukraine can guide their counterattack into. Well, that and obviously embarrassing Russia so much that the loss of Bachmut would get pushed out of the news cycle, instead invoking all the meme armies of the west by making a satire of Russia's modus operandi of 2014.

HOWEVER, I was absolutely startled yesterday when Russia posted these ridiculously staged pictures as well as grainy air bombardment footages from god knows when to instantly declare victory over the 'Russian rebels'. Are they so scared shitless of their own population that they instantly had to waste effort to create these utterly unconvincing clown fakes instead of, you know, just neutrally stating that they are engaging the 'rebels' and using the fog of war to declare that they have dispersed? Because right now, these ludicrous declarations of instant victory countered by dumbfounded statements from the Ukrainian side that there hasn't been a concerted counterattack yet only manage to make Russia look even more desperate and weak than if they just said no comment. We are talking about only 50-100 dudes causing havoc after all. So Russian troops are now shoveling for propaganda shoots instead of, you know, shooting at those? I guess we can consider ourselves lucky. Granted, I'm still hoping they manage to withdraw in order and without great casualties before Russia remembers their air strike capabilities on their own ground.

[Kalbear]

I see this more as a specific commander of that area trying to cover their own ass. 

[Toth]

2 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

I see this more as a specific commander of that area trying to cover their own ass. 

If that was the case, it's odd that it got spread around so extremely quickly in social media at the same time as the air bombardment pics and various simultaneous declarations of victory. It all seemed very intentional to me. I'm not thinking Russia's troll networks all work for the same backyard border guard commander.

[Werthead]

The commander of that area basically had his own social media team going hell for leather showing off the spoils of the counterattack yesterday. It was quite something.

Prigozhin has gone on a rant saying that Wagner has lost over 20,000 in the battle for Bakhmut, and 80% of those losses are on Shoigu's hands for not giving them more ammo and shells. He says he lost 5 men assaulting a position when he should have lost 1 if he'd had proper artillery reserves.

He's also saying that Ukrainian special forces are now operating around Bakhmut and he thinks there's a good chance of a large enemy counter-attack at Bakhmut. He is not convinced the Russian army defenders he is handing over to can hold.

Most tellingly, he's said that this war could trigger a civil conflict within Russia itself if these kind of losses continue.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Werthead

[Denvek]

23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Most tellingly, he's said that this war could trigger a civil conflict within Russia itself if these kind of losses continue.

He'd know, as one of the more likely contenders to start said conflict.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Denvek said:

He'd know, as one of the more likely contenders to start said conflict.

I think he was banking on doing that in partnership with Kadyrov, but Kadyrov has been distancing himself like crazy from Prigozhin in the last few months.

[kiko]

2 hours ago, Denvek said:

He'd know, as one of the more likely contenders to start said conflict.

He needs to goad someone else to start it. Then he can take his troops and cross the Rubicon. 

[Werthead]

Putin showing signs of having lost the ability to read:

 

[A wilding]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Putin showing signs of having lost the ability to read:

 

However that is how dictatorships such as Russia work. They tell their citizens that black is white and the citizens are required to believe it, despite the evidence of their senses. And the citizens, with no experience of any other sort of government, do come to believe it in a way, while feeling a sort of disabling guilt that part of them can't stop seeing that black is not actually white at all.

That said, Putin's feet of clay are definitely beginning to show now.

[Corvinus85]

Recall a would be American dictator who decided to draw his own weather map.

[Darzin]

On 5/25/2023 at 5:25 AM, kiko said:

He needs to goad someone else to start it. Then he can take his troops and cross the Rubicon. 

I suspect that's why his troops are being ground down in Bakhmut, he was getting absurdly powerful and building his own mythos. He still has a lot of power and if Putin were to die tomorrow I suspect he'd take his troops and march on Moscow.