The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Bironic]

Apparently Wagner troops have started to retreat from Bakhmut and handing over their positions to the Russian military 

[Wilbur]

An interesting editorial on the Russian incursion:

Opinion: The Brilliance of Belgorod (kyivpost.com)

[ThinkerX]

Probably not especially credible, but if accurate...what would Putin's reaction be if these rebels somehow seized and maintained control of Belgorod? He's about out of troops and equipment....

Russian Defectors Say Putin's Troops 'Hiding in Panic' in Belgorod (msn.com)

 

[ThinkerX]

Life in Belgorod...plods along.

Fatalism takes over in bombed Russian border city Belgorod (msn.com)

[Werthead]

Today's air attack on Ukraine was carried out with 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles (37 shot down, according to Ukrainian sources) and 35 Shahed drones (29 shot down). There was one serious hit in western Ukraine, at an airbase where several Ukrainian Air Force planes were damaged, but none reported destroyed.

An additional attack was launched with around a dozen Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles, with all of them intercepted.

Oryx reported today that Russia has crossed 2,000 tanks destroyed.

[Zorral]

Drones hit Moscow, shocking Russian capital after new missile attack on Kyiv

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/30/moscow-drones-kyiv-russia-counteroffensive/

Quote

 

.... While Ukraine denied involvement in the drone attack on Moscow, the dueling strikes on the capital cities appeared to mark a threshold moment, as residents of Russia’s capital experienced direct consequences of their nation’s brutal hostilities for the first time.

Increased shelling of Russian towns in the Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border on Tuesday offered further evidence that Kyiv seems intent on bringing the war to Russian territory before initiating offensive operations that will inevitably cause further death and destruction in Ukraine ....

 

 

[Gorn]

 

 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Gorn

[Werthead]

Prigozhin went on a predictable rant that the Russian military was incompetent etc in allowing this to happen. He didn't spare a word of criticism for Ukraine at all.

What is interesting is if this was Ukraine in the first place. You'd assume so, but they have rejected credit, but you'd assume one of these Russian partisan groups would have claimed responsibility if they had done the deed. That leaves more Russian infighting, false flags and who knows what else.

Apparently the reaction in Moscow on the street, once the initial shock wore off, was bizarrely glee because one of the areas hit was a gated one, home to several homes owned by Moscow's ultra-elite.

Some speculation that Prigozhin will move more stridently into the political arena or will even take his troops towards Moscow once he completes withdrawing from Bakhmut (apparently tomorrow), although that still feels premature.

[Gorn]

We had dozens of incidents so far that were speculated to be Russian false flags, and zero of them turned out to be false flags so far. Which doesn't meant that this one isn't a false flag, but at this point I don't think that Russian leadership feels the need to bother going to that trouble to justify themselves in front of their population. And of course that Ukraine will officially say that it wasn't them as long as any semblance of plausibly deniability exists.

Budanov, the chief of Ukrainian intelligence, has SOF background, a personal preference for behind-the-lines sabotage missions, and he openly said in an interview a month or two ago that Ukrainian offensive will start "when our drones start hitting Moscow".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-ukrainian-military-spies-are-beating-their-russian-rivals-q7n2kqch2 (paywall)

Quote

By contrast, the smaller, scrappier GUR has come into its own. Its leader, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, is a former officer in Ukraine’s own Spetsnaz (unlike his Russian counterpart, Admiral Igor Kostyukov, who was a naval intelligence analyst), who was wounded three times fighting in the Donbas. Zelensky appears to have given him free rein to stir up trouble in Russia, to torment the Kremlin and to make ordinary Russians fear that the war is coming home to them. Budanov has a reputation as a ruthless, effective and imaginative operator, and much the same could be said of GUR as a whole. Although there is some evidence of domestic anti-war activism in Russia, Ukrainian military intelligence seems to be behind most recent sabotage attacks in the country. Lacking an extensive network of agents behind enemy lines, it has turned to unexpected new forms of recruitment. Hackers ransack the bank accounts of Russian pensioners who are then blackmailed into firebombing draft offices. Russian teenagers — who claim not to know who is paying them — are hired through social media to set light to railway junction boxes for money. Some of the GUR’s most spectacular coups have been executed by people who apparently had no idea that they were carrying out a mission. The haulier who drove a truck full of explosives onto the Kerch bridge in October did not seem to know what he was carrying (he died in the explosion), while the Russian woman who handed an ultra-nationalist blogger a bust that exploded and killed him in St Petersburg was apparently unaware that she was passing on a bomb. A British intelligence officer who has worked with GUR called the agency “Ukraine’s Mossad”, likening it to Israeli intelligence in that “when they go after a target, they really will do whatever it takes”.

 

[Maithanet]

Well, anytime there's an attack on Russian soil there are three possible culprits.  There haven't been too many of #1 since the war started, but there have definitely been #2. 

1. False Flag (from the Kremlin itself)

2. Russian Opposition Factions

3.  The Ukrainians.

Sometimes #2 is with the support of Ukraine, sometimes not.  In the case of this latest drone attack, I think #3 is the most likely, although #2 cannot be dismissed.  #1 doesn't make a lot of sense, IMO. 

[Makk]

If Prigozhin is looking to get deeper into politics, he is definitely not going for the popular vote. He has literally claimed Russia should become like the proverbial North Korea and live this way for a number of years. Close all the borders and stop beating around the bush. Stop building roads and other new infrastructure, get everyone one making ammo and concentrating on the war.

When asked about using nuclear weapons he explained that it was OK to go to your neighbors house and use your fists to beat him up but it was not OK to use an axe and hit him in the head. And an axe is a nuclear bomb. But then he said he was in favor of using the bomb but it had to be done earlier before we went around picking our nose for so long???

The guy is nuts. He could actually be even worse than Putin, hopefully they take each other down and someone more sane can take over.

[The Anti-Targ]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

Prigozhin went on a predictable rant that the Russian military was incompetent etc in allowing this to happen. He didn't spare a word of criticism for Ukraine at all.

What is interesting is if this was Ukraine in the first place. You'd assume so, but they have rejected credit, but you'd assume one of these Russian partisan groups would have claimed responsibility if they had done the deed. That leaves more Russian infighting, false flags and who knows what else.

Apparently the reaction in Moscow on the street, once the initial shock wore off, was bizarrely glee because one of the areas hit was a gated one, home to several homes owned by Moscow's ultra-elite.

Some speculation that Prigozhin will move more stridently into the political arena or will even take his troops towards Moscow once he completes withdrawing from Bakhmut (apparently tomorrow), although that still feels premature.

It's the elites who are propping up Putin and his war, so hitting them in their soft underbelly is the best thing to do if you are going to target the capital city. The Russian everyperson isn't to blame for any of it, even if they are caught up in some delusional patriotic fervour in support of the war, it's their kids who are dying on the front-lines, so they are already paying the price.

[Wilbur]

Ukraine buys up the world supply of first person drones (between 50 and 100k units).

Russia Braces For Attack By 50,000 Ukrainian Kamikaze Drones, Seeks Shotguns (forbes.com)

This is a good example of supply chain interdiction, and it has Russia worried about where it will be able to source drones of their own.

The Art of Supply Chain Interdiction: To Win Without Fighting - War on the Rocks

Sun-Tzu would be proud.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

This could be interesting.  Reports that Moldova will allow Ukraine to act in conjunction with them to deal with Russian forces in Transniestria.

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1664304670645403648?s=46&t=6f2pTCn5vNYPb05sK9Ubrw

Edited June 1, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Corvinus85]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

This could be interesting:

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1664304670645403648?s=46&t=6f2pTCn5vNYPb05sK9Ubrw

Can't open

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

Can't open

Must be BS the tweet was deleted.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Then again… maybe not:

 

[Kalbear]

On 5/30/2023 at 7:51 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

It's the elites who are propping up Putin and his war, so hitting them in their soft underbelly is the best thing to do if you are going to target the capital city. The Russian everyperson isn't to blame for any of it, even if they are caught up in some delusional patriotic fervour in support of the war, it's their kids who are dying on the front-lines, so they are already paying the price.

Just so it's clear why I'm laughing - despite what some folks thought the elites are not propping up Putin. They largely exist and function at the whim of Putin. If they all did rebel against him there might be a problem, but most of them are essentially just figureheads and piggy banks for Putin himself. They do not have much individual power or support. 

Russia is not an oligarchy. It is an autocracy. And while Putin is not invulnerable he has done a very good job making his reign about as bulletproof as he possibly can, using his decades of experience undermining other dictatorships to guide how to shore up his weaknesses.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Kerch Bridge over troubled water

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Just so it's clear why I'm laughing - despite what some folks thought the elites are not propping up Putin. They largely exist and function at the whim of Putin. If they all did rebel against him there might be a problem, but most of them are essentially just figureheads and piggy banks for Putin himself. They do not have much individual power or support. 

Russia is not an oligarchy. It is an autocracy. And while Putin is not invulnerable he has done a very good job making his reign about as bulletproof as he possibly can, using his decades of experience undermining other dictatorships to guide how to shore up his weaknesses.

It's more accurate to say that Putin is basically a mob boss who acts successfully as a negotiator between myriad factions whom he then pits against one another, whilst utilising his own private security force (the Rosvgardia) and specific power blocs he has sponsored to rise to power (Kadyrov, Prigozhin to some extent). The elites in the form of the oligarchs were not really a threat and had little say in what happened in Russia as long as they had no practical power, only government contracts and approval, which could be withdrawn at any moment.

However, since the start of the conflict, some of those oligarchs got a clue and started doing a Prigozhin and hiring mercenary forces of their own. Gazprom has a mercenary army working for it, which is insane (British Gas and Shell now pondering if they can get away with doing that). How good any of these forces are, how loyal they are etc is a big question. But some of the elites in Russia are now loaded for bear. Putin is still in place mainly because people are fearful of making the first move and also think he can pull something impressive out of the fire, which the Putin of around 2005 could have done, but the current model almost certainly cannot.

If Putin dies, by natural means or not, I suspect his anointed successor (and he still doesn't have one) will last 5 seconds and then it will be a free-for-all. That prospect is fairly alarming.