The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has apparently opened a large-scale series of raids along the line of contact in the south-east. It is unclear which is the main thrust, which is opportunism taking advantage of disorder in the Russian lines, and which are tactical feints. So far, the Velykonovoskilkivsyi area is under attack, with the first recorded sightings of western-donated tanks and APCs. A reported tank battle near Novodarivka, with 3 Russian tanks engaging 2 Ukrainian tanks and AT teams. One Russian tank destroyed, the other two retreated.

Ukrainian counter-attacks underway at Soledar, where they retook several positions lost last winter and are reportedly reinforcing. Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar have also engaged Russian forces, reportedly driving Russian forces back to Novodonetske and fighting in the streets in the outskirts of the town.

The Ukrainian counter attacks around Bakhmut are gathering speed and momentum, with Volnovakha under attack (although the goal might not be the town but taking control of the highway, cutting off resupply routes into the town itself.

Russian Telegram isn't in its normal meltdown, saying the gains are low-hanging fruit in areas that were stripped to reinforce the attack on Bakhmut, so it's not surprising these areas are the ones being targeted. They've also pointed out these targets can be taken relatively easily, and Ukraine's main effort might be elsewhere.

Think they’re probing for a weak point in the hopes they don’t have to punch hard to break a hole in existing Russian lines so they can outflank like in the Karkiv attack last Summer?

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Think they’re probing for a weak point in the hopes they don’t have to punch hard to break a hole in existing Russian lines so they can outflank like in the Karkiv attack last Summer?

I think Ukraine knows it got very lucky last summer and that might not come up again, at least on a large scale. They might retake some areas through such means, but a large-scale operation will be bloodier, but necessary to inflict a serious strategic reversal on Russia.

One idea I've seen floated is breaking through the S and SE flanks of Bakhmut and driving into the Donetsk rear area, forcing the artillery supporting Bakhmut to withdraw. Russia would then have to retreat from Bakhmut (or just be obliterated). The southern flanks around Bakhmut are in a questionable state of reinforcement at the moment with Wagner completing its withdrawal and the regular Russian units (many of them conscripts) replacing them being inexperienced, and this is the area where Ukraine has already gained great successes recently.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Think they’re probing for a weak point in the hopes they don’t have to punch hard to break a hole in existing Russian lines so they can outflank like in the Karkiv attack last Summer?

Perhaps as a secondary effort, but I'm doubtful that the main effort(s) of the counterattack will be decided on the fly. 

If Ukrainian sources are to be believed (and they're usually at least somewhat credible) in the past two months they have inflicted particularly high attrition amongst artillery and air defense systems.  Those are the most important equipment for keeping a counterattack at bay.  We'll find out if it's enough in the next few weeks. 

[Werthead]

Ukraine has also resumed large-scale HIMARS strikes around Melitopol and conducted limited offensives and raids along the line of contact in that sector. The smart money might be on Ukraine focusing eyes on the Belgorod border and on the centre of Donetsk Oblast and then hitting the western sector with a heavy offensive. Retaking Melitopol would be a colossal strategic victory, massively outweighing the loss of Bakhmut (if it finally happens, Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken some streets in the far SW of the city in recent days).

Prigozhin has criticised the MoD for failing the people of Belgorod and has said he will redeploy Wagner to defend the border if the MoD is unable to do so.

At this point I'm starting to wonder if the Ukrainians are paying Prigozhin off.

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has also resumed large-scale HIMARS strikes around Melitopol and conducted limited offensives and raids along the line of contact in that sector. The smart money might be on Ukraine focusing eyes on the Belgorod border and on the centre of Donetsk Oblast and then hitting the western sector with a heavy offensive. Retaking Melitopol would be a colossal strategic victory, massively outweighing the loss of Bakhmut (if it finally happens, Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken some streets in the far SW of the city in recent days).

I've always thought that in the end the counterattack would be in the south, just because it is so much harder for Russia to quickly supply and reinforce in that area, as opposed to an attack in the Donbas.  I think that this is all just a bunch of noise in other areas to keep the last bits of supplies from going into Zaporozhye Oblast.  

[Werthead]

Russian Telegram is now blowing up. Russian forces have evacuated Novodonetske, allowing Ukraine to push forward a fairly substantial salient south-east of Velyka Novosilka. The next settlement anchor point is Oktyabrske but it's unclear if the Russians are planning to make a fight of it there. They need to hold up the line otherwise the Ukrainians can cut west and risk crossing the Mokri Yaly River behind Russian lines, encircling a whole ton of Russian units in the towns along the river.

The 200th and 72nd Motor Rifle Brigades were pulled from that area just a month ago to reinforce Bakhmut and they were not replaced. The 400th and 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigades are the forces in that area and they got battered in a failed offensive back in March and have not been properly reconstituted.

If you follow that trail of river towns to the south, you get to Mariupol. I wonder if that's what the Ukrainians are also thinking of. Quite a long way though.

Also a revision, the Leopards aren't in service yet. What were thought to be Leopards turned out to be French AMX-10s, which are less impressive in terms of raw firepower but faster-moving.

I'm not entirely sure this makes sense as the main centre of a thrust (too easily reinforced), but if they can pick off that whole region and eliminate large Russian formations in the field, that would be certainly worthwhile.

Now some reports that partisans may have captured Novaya Tavolzhanka, on the Russian side of the border S-SE of Belgorod. The Russian governor of Belgorod says the town has been lost, some Russian government sources saying everything is fine. The governor of Belgorod seems to be getting increasingly pissed off with Moscow contradicting his reports and advisories to citizens.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Werthead

[Kalbear]

Compared to last year and the amount of OSINT info we had corroborating events the lack of accurate info on the Russian spots is fascinating. 

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Compared to last year and the amount of OSINT info we had corroborating events the lack of accurate info on the Russian spots is fascinating. 

One of the interesting things is that none of the really heavy assault brigades seem to be involved so far. This is all local shit and possibly one more significant formation advancing around Novodonetske. So we still know jack shit about where the main effort is shaping up.

[The Anti-Targ]

As a total noob when it comes to war strategy it would be common sense to attack where iyt is hardest for Russia to resupply equipment and soldiers, and to me that means the areas that do not directly border uncontested Russian territory. To me that would mean the Melitopol-Zhaporizhzha line and points west. Or maybe go as far east as Berdyansk, though that might be a bit too close to Russian territory. Ukraine should be able to shoot at pretty much any overland reinforcement attempts coming through the Donetsk Oblast.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Werthead@Maithanet

Just saw this.  Y’all are better with OSTINT… is it being confirmed…

 

[ThinkerX]

Something I have started to wonder about...

Suppose the Russian Rebels do somehow seize control of a major Russian City or three.

Seems to me it would be a smart move on their part to immediately and aggressively restore the likes of Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and other social media platforms, all completely uncensored - and if possible, extend that uncensored content into parts of Russia they don't control. Because, right now, it seems to me that this information blackout is a major reason for minimal Russian unrest. That changes...

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead@Maithanet

Just saw this.  Y’all are better with OSTINT… is it being confirmed…

 

Yeah, it's confirmed.  Wonder if we'll find out who did this.  A bunch of Russian positions are flooded, but it also creates a ton of problems for Ukraine postwar (if not sooner).

[Maithanet]

Here's a tweet on why that is a big problem for both sides. 

I think it's a lot more likely that the Russians did this because they fear the Ukrainians coming over the dam.  The Ukrainians have been working hard to avoid unnecessary destruction of thier own infrastructure.  And the risk to the zaporihzhya nuclear plant...  Scary stuff.

 

[Alarich II]

Blowing up the dam was probably only a matter of time; it's what the NKWD did in 1941 to stop the Germans and what the Germans did in 1943 to stop the Soviets. Basically the defenders are creating a huge swamp downriver for a couple of weeks which basically frees defensives forces that were tied to the defence against a possible river crossing. In this case the Russian forces on the lower left bank.

[Gorn]

The flood water was reported to have drowned a lot of Russian troops in Nova Kakhovka, and it swept away their minefields, prepared defenses, and some artillery and heavy equipment. There are also Russian soldiers sitting in trees further downriver, trapped by the water around them. So if it was a delaying tactic, it was a costly one.

I've seen speculation that the explosion was supposed to be smaller and more controlled, to basically just break off the top part of the dam and flood the Ukrainian-controlled river islands.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I've seen speculation that the explosion was supposed to be smaller and more controlled, to basically just break off the top part of the dam and flood the Ukrainian-controlled river islands.

I've also heard that, and it makes a bit more sense.  The Russian propaganda line initially was that the Ukrainians damaged the NK dam with artillery shelling.  But from what I understand, the extent of the damage is far beyond what you could achieve with tube artillery in a short period of time. 

This is very sad news.  Hundreds (perhaps thousands) of people will drown in the flooding, disease will get worse downstream, and the water and power situation throughout southern Ukraine will be much worse for probably a decade before this can be repaired. 

[Fez]

8 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I've seen speculation that the explosion was supposed to be smaller and more controlled, to basically just break off the top part of the dam and flood the Ukrainian-controlled river islands.

That would make sense to me. Russia purposefully fucking over Crimea like this seems kinda counter-intuitive.

[Werthead]

I think it was more likely to destroy the road deck to stop the Ukrainians to use it from crossing the river and things got out of control.

[Corvinus85]

Destroying dams is against the Geneva Conventions. I doubt it was Ukraine for that reason alone.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

The idea that it was Ukraine who blew up the dam is Russian propaganda. Please don’t spread it.

Russia has been in control of the dam for a long time now and had likely prepared it with many tons of explosives, just for this purpose. It’s not unintentional. They even increased the water level of the dam to a record of 17 meters in order to maximize the effect. This is a severe human and environmental disaster, but it will slow down the Ukrainian counter offensive for three reasons. The first is that it prevents Ukraine from using the dam bridge to cross the Dnipro, the second is that it will drown a lot of land on the left (i.e. Eastern) side of the river, making it muddy for weeks or months making it harder to move there, and the third is to keep the Ukrainian government busy with the evacuation and catastrophe response so that they can spend less time on the offensive.