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Football: The odds are not even


polishgenius
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8 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Liverpool paying 35 million for a proven Premier league talent is already the bargain of the summer transfer window. Absolute steal.

Yes, and I think Gakpo and Diaz look like great deals too.  It’s only Darwin Nunez that doesn’t look great value so far — and he could still improve (but I don’t have much faith in that right now).

Before him, you’d have to go back to Keita as our last big transfer miss, because I’d call Ox a success until that terrible knee injury — bad luck more than bad transfer.

Considering how well we’ve done with transfers, it’s a bit shocking that our greatest weakness has been inaction on transfers and extending contracts too long.  With our track record, you would think we’d be more willing to roll the dice. 

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8 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Considering how well we’ve done with transfers, it’s a bit shocking that our greatest weakness has been inaction on transfers and extending contracts too long.  With our track record, you would think we’d be more willing to roll the dice. 

Maybe not just "rolling the dice" is the reason why Liverpool's transfers track record is what it is?

If the reported 35M£ signing fee is correct, then it sure was a bargain (even with the rumoured 20M£ in add-ons) especially when considering how Brighton handled selling their main players in recent years.

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11 hours ago, Daemon the Leaner said:

City, Chelsea or us would have been told to pay 70 M for him :bang:

He had a release clause. Anyone signing him would have payed 35 million. This was not some magical negotiating from Liverpool.

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2 hours ago, Soylent Brown said:

I think Isk was being a little flippant there, not suggesting we should have taken massive risks.

The fact remains that we've completely written off two of Klopp's seasons at Liverpool now through leaving glaring weaknesses in the squad unchecked at the start of the campaign. Absolutely fucking idiotic.

This.  For the past 8-9 years we’ve had more consistent transfer success than our top-6 rivals (City used their money to paper over their transfer misses).  We should have been more willing to lean into that advantage.

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I wonder though if Liverpool’s transfer success in selling may have run out of fuel. Just looking at how Mane and Origi fared last season, after Gini too, it doesn’t seem like many clubs will pay a premium in the expectation that Liverpool players can carry over their impact to another club.  Just like Ibe, Smith, Wilson, Brewster and others killed the premium for Liverpool youth players.

Selling well was half of the equation.  But our recruitment still seems good when we bother to do it.  Inbound panic loans have probably been our weakest aspect: Caulker, Arthur Melo, anyone else?

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I don't particularly fault the Liverpool recruitment process over the past six years.

One season had a shortfall as a result of injuries to four central defenders.  Two seasons were stunted as a result of widespread injuries to midfielders.  Sandwiched in between was a relatively healthy season that resulted in a league winning effort.

All three injury seasons, on paper, looked like they should have been highly successful at the start of the season.  And in each season, the onset of unexpected injuries wiped out most of either the expected starters in central defense or midfield.  The team had the right numbers and quality of players at the seasons' starts.

And then last season was the bridge too far in terms of players exhaustion from participating in every possible game in every possible competition in the previous season.  Prior to that, Klopp's lowest finish in the league for a full season has been fourth despite these spates of injuries.

Also, despite the injuries, the three highest points totals for the club have also come within the last six years, bettering every other team, even including the all-conquering days of Rush, Souness, Dalglish, Barnes, Whelan, Nicol, etc. in the 80s.

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I think FSG just got complacent. Milner, Keita and Ox should have been replaced before the start of this past season - it was apparent maybe 3 seasons ago that Milner's legs were going and Keita and Ox were far too injury prone and inconsistent. That complacency has cost them CL football for a season but Liverpool should have no problems finishing in the top 4 next season. They do have the second-best squad in the league currently and aren't exactly miles off from City in terms of squad strength. A few (3-4) good signings and their squad depth will be comparable to City's.

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21 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

I think FSG just got complacent. Milner, Keita and Ox should have been replaced before the start of this past season - it was apparent maybe 3 seasons ago that Milner's legs were going and Keita and Ox were far too injury prone and inconsistent.

I don't know about complacent, that's a little harsh. They obviously were aware that midfield was where they needed to strengthen and they did try to buy Tchouameni last summer and planned to get Bellingham this summer. They overestimated how much their current midfielders had left to give though and with the benefit of hindsight having missed out on their main target last summer they should have gone to someone else. If they're interested in, say, Gravenberch now last summer would have been a better time to sign him.

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In the DoF/Sporting Director market.

Monchi wants to leave Sevilla.

After their rather rocky season with him getting a lot of stick, too. Monchi has said he wants out. His presumed destination Aston Villa. Sevilla disagree. Their position, if you want to leave, you have to pay us a year of your salary (~3m €), or you won't be able to take a new job for two years. I can kinda see, why Sevilla don't want to part with him in the middle of the preparations for next season, but they are rumoredly already scouting the market for a successor, with Orta (formerly Leeds) being the frontrunner.

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59 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Gravenberch was a real miss last summer for only 20 million.  And then Bayern hardly played him.

I followed that situation a bit last year, and if I remember correctly, the only reason Gravenberch went for such a low price was because he insisted on going to Bayern.  Would have cost a lot more if it had been open to other teams.

Kind of curious if he'll be on the move again this summer.  Articles seem to indicate that his connection there was with Salihamidzic, who is gone now.  And he was also upset about barely playing this past year.  Plus, they just signed Laimer.

Edited by Whiskeyjack
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