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US politics - wheeling and dealing, avoiding debt ceiling


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Is it a realistic possibility for Trump to make the classified docs case go away via a plea deal and paying a fine? Assuming the limits of the indictment are that he had such docs in his possession and lied about having them and refused to give hand them over, and that no evidence of actual compromise of national security/interest, deliberate or otherwise, is part of the case?

Can you plead no contest in these situations, and thus get to politically spin that you were not found guilty of anything?

I just don't see a documents case being the thing that ruins Trump's life, and it may be in the DoJ's interests to get this one done and dusted ASAP, since there are much bigger and more important (soul of our democracy kind of thing) potential indictments to focus on.

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12 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Why though? I agree with the rest of your post; there's no constitutional bar.  SCOTUS won't do anything to interfere.  But as to whether he's going to prison:

(a) he's theoretically a first time offender and this is a process-type crime even if convicted so prison time is unlikely; (b) a federal criminal trial of this size will take 2-3 years at least; (c) as DMC says, Trump will do everything in his power to delay the case from proceeding before Nov. 2024.  Even if he loses the nomination, he'll hope for a Republican victory and a Presidential pardon.  Or (once the spotlight is off and the election is over for him), he may accept a plea deal.  

I..don't understand how this is disagreeing with me that he's not going to prison.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

I..don't understand how this is disagreeing with me that he's not going to prison.

Oh I'm not disagreeing that he's not going to prison, just your reference to SCOTUS having anything to do with his eligibility to run or serve as president.  That's the bit I didn't follow.  My understanding is he can notwithstanding anything that happens in the criminal case, and it's pretty open and shut. 

8 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is it a realistic possibility for Trump to make the classified docs case go away via a plea deal and paying a fine?

Yes, with the asterisk that there are seven counts, and we don't really know anything until we see the indictment.  But sure he can reach a plea deal; he would have to plead guilty though and he won't do that while still a candidate for president.  There's significant legal risk for the prosecutors in Biden and Pence having classified documents at their residence; that makes this a much more process crime around obstruction/lying which is less readily understandable/persuasive before a jury.  Also, this is a South Florida jury. 

I expect the DOJ to be tenacious tbh though.  I don't think they'll settle for a slap on the wrist.  

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4 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

My understanding is he can notwithstanding anything that happens in the criminal case, and it's pretty open and shut. 

Agreed.  Still not sure where the disagreement is.

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1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

There's significant legal risk for the prosecutors in Biden and Pence having classified documents at their residence; that makes this a much more process crime around obstruction/lying which is less readily understandable/persuasive before a jury. 

Is there really? Both parties were accommodating and apologetic compared to Trump who it seems pretty clearly knowingly stole state secrets and then lied about it. 

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3 hours ago, DMC said:

Well, I suppose let's give Trump credit for getting out in front of the story.  Did the same thing with the Manhattan indictment.  Imma wait until, ya know, Smith actually publicizes the charges.  This is clearly his response to the target letter that told him he would be indicted.

Weird how this happens when the Joe Biden got $5m from Burisma story also drops.  Not Hunter, Joe himself.

The corporate media is going to make all of next week all about Trump.  

I do expect Trump to get incarcerated though.  Life in a despotism where elections are shams.  81 million votes for Joe!!!

Edited by mcbigski
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16 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Weird how this happens when the Joe Biden got $5m from Burisma story also drops.  Not Hunter, Joe himself.

Pull back and stop huffing glue like Charlie did when he created The Dayman. A single source that's unverified and discredited per the FBI making a claim does not mean Biden did anything wrong, especially when we consider everything going on and the people making these kinds of claims are known liars. They're just throwing shit at the wall. If you want to tell yourself it's pudding, eat it with three fingers full of joy, but you're probably just eating shit.

Edited by Tywin et al.
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Surely one of the many dozens of sci-fi authors will have nailed our inevitable course, right? Perhaps in a Star Trek adjacent future, our magnificent future in the stars will remember a bizarre decade in planetary history where an American President lost a re-election, tried to re-run, only to be beset by a myriad of federal and state crimes, destined to end his miserable life in prison, kick-starting a sea change of progressive, uniting policies that brought humanity back to optimism!

Great story, Diver! Folks, after this break let's check in with our cultural reporter Chuck Fandango who has insider news on tonight's Kardashian catastrophe you can't miss!

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As for plea deal... some pundits are already citing Spiro Agnew as a possible parallel... aka, Don't run again, and we'll overlook your 40 felonies.

In other news...

 

Edited by Mindwalker
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15 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

As for plea deal... some pundits are already citing Spiro Agnew as a possible parallel... aka, Don't run again, and we'll overlook your 40 felonies.

Those pundits are silly.  Trump isn't going to take a deal that prevents him from running.  Also, his charges appear to be less serious than Agnew's.  At least based on what we know now:

Quote

A provision of the Espionage Act that prohibits the retention of classified materials;

A statute that prohibits the obstruction of an official proceeding;

A statute that prohibits falsifying or destroying records pertinent to a federal investigation;

Statutes prohibiting false statements and conspiracy.

So, obstruction (which he could've been charged with about half a dozen times as president), falsifying documents or statements (which he could've been charged with about half a million times as president), and the Espionage Act. 

The Espionage Act is, generally, a bullshit law that should be repealed.  It's infamously been used to unfairly prosecute many individuals since its passage during WWI.  From Eugene Debs to the Rosenbergs to Ellsberg to Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowdon.  As I mentioned last year during the FBI raid of his lair, it's pretty damn ironic that that's the centerpiece of going after him.

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57 minutes ago, DMC said:

The Espionage Act is, generally, a bullshit law that should be repealed.  It's infamously been used to unfairly prosecute many individuals since its passage during WWI.  From Eugene Debs to the Rosenbergs to Ellsberg to Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowdon.  As I mentioned last year during the FBI raid of his lair, it's pretty damn ironic that that's the centerpiece of going after him.

I don't doubt it's a bullshit law. I also have no problem with them using it on him, so long as the law is in place.

PS The "falsifying or destroying" part is interseting. Big dumps? The pool flooding?

Edited by Mindwalker
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4 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

I also have no problem with them using it on him, so long as the law is in place.

Sure, me neither.  Just saying these charges aren't going to compel him to make such a deal.

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6 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Weird how this happens when the Joe Biden got $5m from Burisma story also drops.  Not Hunter, Joe himself.

The corporate media is going to make all of next week all about Trump.  

I do expect Trump to get incarcerated though.  Life in a despotism where elections are shams.  81 million votes for Joe!!!

So, do you believe the lady who just defected to Russia on her sexual assault allegations against President Biden too?

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6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is there really? Both parties were accommodating and apologetic compared to Trump who it seems pretty clearly knowingly stole state secrets and then lied about it. 

Right, unquestionably.  But all three arguably mishandled classified information (one of the Trump charges). 

Trump seriously aggravated that charge and committed other crimes by as you say "knowingly stealing state secrets and lying about it".  But through the lens of a (South Florida!) jury, the defense argument is that Trump's underlying crime was not that different from what Pence and Biden have done.  

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42 minutes ago, DMC said:

Sure, me neither.  Just saying these charges aren't going to compel him to make such a deal.

Agreed.  Any deal the Feds can offer him (and they won't be bending backwards to help him) will be much worse than winning the presidency and wiping away his crimes (or hoping Biden does "for the sake of the country", or hoping for a favorable jury verdict.  

That said, there are several other shoes to drop.  This was just the easiest case.  

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I think going to Florida was a smart move; he would have tried to change the venue anyway (and this time not without merit), one delay tactic less.

That said, I don't see a conviction before the general election; and even then, he'd appeal.

Edited by Mindwalker
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