Will Doran end up ruining Dorne?

[Curled Finger]

3 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

If Myrcella dies, Trystane is free to marry, and Myrcella will die, then you are right about the Stormlands, especially if Aegon names Edric new lord of Storm's End, then there are the Blackfyre loyalists as Wyl, Yronwood, Hightower, Peake, then there is the army of the Golden Company, and he has Tyrion as advisor and Bronn married a lady of the Crown lands, so the entire Dorne is not necessary. 

 

Whoa!  You are taking a few jumps here.  I think the hit is planned for Trystane, right?  How does Myrcella's death ensure the Stormland's loyalties to Aegon?  Technically, they belong to Tommen, right?  I get the Blackfyre loyalists and imagine they are already in the loop with the Aegon funky bunch.  Tyrion is no where near Westeros and doesn't appear to be in any position to be advising anyone on the continent for a long while.  Is your implication that Tyrion's friends will be Aegon's friends so Dorne is unimportant to Aegon?  

Edric is MIA, though it would be great to see him back in story.  Problem is, he is a Baratheon.  I think Aegon's purpose is probably to scour Westeros of those lousy Baratheons like Robert did to his folks.  The Golden Company is comprised of displaced Westerosi lords among others.  I imagine some of them would like a cool castle like Storms End better than a usurping dog Baratheon bastard.  Maybe a nice retirement home for Strickland?  Or a love nest for Conington?  Aegon isn't paying the Golden Company.  They are in Westeros for the promise of restored and new lands and castles.  

Just for fun not that I think it will happen, I would love to see Stannis roll up on these guys.  

[BlackLightning]

15 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Ok I will bite.  Let's suppose Dany comes to Dorne knowing she was pledged to marry a presumably dead prince.

See, I'm going to stop you right there.

Dany was never ever pledged to marry any presumably dead prince.

The one who was "pledged" to marry was Viserys. And I use the term pledged very loosely because neither Viserys nor Arianne never knew about or consented to such a pledge. Even if you go with the argument that their legal guardians signed the pledged on their behalf and acted as witnesses, where are they? All of the witnesses to such pledge are dead and the last one is on his deathbed. Moreover, Prince Doran never even signed it for Arianne. Her uncle did but her uncle is not her legal guardian.

It was never legally binding for Viserys and Arianne. So how can it be for Daenerys and Quentyn?

This is what I mean by the fact that Prince Doran is doing a bad job of playing the game. If he is going to be this fearful and secretive, then he needs to not play at all. Or at least, have a very different strategy.

21 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Tyrion spurred Aegon on to Westeros.  This was a dirty move, but perhaps not bad advice. 

Oh, it was definitely dirty. But it was bad advice.

22 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

If he's doing well and not hitched to Arianne and waiting for Dany this could work in Aegon's favor. 

Right but with the way that the personalities and temperaments of Aegon, Arianne and their allies are set up...

And for the record, Aegon is surrounded by a lot of yes-men so...

24 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

I'm just not confident in any of the remaining Martell's abilities to effectively do anything substantial to Daenerys Targaryen, Mother of Dragons, Breaker of Chains, Queen of Everything...

If Dany tries to cross over to Westeros and the Dornish repel or outright attack her because of the stuff that they heard and/or because of what they think she did to Quentyn, that's pretty substantial.

36 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Is Aegon fool enough to marry Arianne or Elia when he knows what Dany is?

That's the thing. Aegon doesn't know what Dany is.

No one west of Volantis knows what Dany is. And most of the people east of Volantis don't know that much more about her either.

That's the problem. People like Connington, Doran, Illyrio, Tyrion and Varys keep making plans based on what they know about Dany without taking a moment to accept the fact that they don't know who she is at all. Not even the Green Grace or Hizdahr or Xaro Xhoa Daxos or Khal Jhaqo know who Dany is.

Hell, Dany doesn't even know who she is or what she wants 25% of the time. How the hell is anyone else supposed to know???

So yes...in the end, Aegon is fool enough to marry someone anyone else. Why? Because he doesn't know her and he surrounds himself with people (many of whom aren't even competent in their area of expertise) who enable and inflate him.

44 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

I mean, a win at Storms End is a big deal.  Does he need Dorne when the The Reach may well be on his side anyway?  Doesn't this 1st win imply that the Stormlands are his adding to his army?  

Yes, the Storm's End win is a big deal. It's a huge deal...especially if it is followed by the downfall of Mace Tyrell. But given Aegon's personality, I'm willing to bet money that the boy is going to let the win at Storm's End go to his head.

If Aegon wants to be successful, he has to be better than Robb. And although Robb was never one to win a battle or two and believe that he is God's gift to the art of war...he still got way too sure of himself.

[Curled Finger]

15 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

See, I'm going to stop you right there.

Dany was never ever pledged to marry any presumably dead prince.

The one who was "pledged" to marry was Viserys. And I use the term pledged very loosely because neither Viserys nor Arianne never knew about or consented to such a pledge. Even if you go with the argument that their legal guardians signed the pledged on their behalf and acted as witnesses, where are they? All of the witnesses to such pledge are dead and the last one is on his deathbed. Moreover, Prince Doran never even signed it for Arianne. Her uncle did but her uncle is not her legal guardian.

It was never legally binding for Viserys and Arianne. So how can it be for Daenerys and Quentyn?

This is what I mean by the fact that Prince Doran is doing a bad job of playing the game. If he is going to be this fearful and secretive, then he needs to not play at all. Or at least, have a very different strategy.

Oh, it was definitely dirty. But it was bad advice.

Right but with the way that the personalities and temperaments of Aegon, Arianne and their allies are set up...

And for the record, Aegon is surrounded by a lot of yes-men so...

If Dany tries to cross over to Westeros and the Dornish repel or outright attack her because of the stuff that they heard and/or because of what they think she did to Quentyn, that's pretty substantial.

That's the thing. Aegon doesn't know what Dany is.

No one west of Volantis knows what Dany is. And most of the people east of Volantis don't know that much more about her either.

That's the problem. People like Connington, Doran, Illyrio, Tyrion and Varys keep making plans based on what they know about Dany without taking a moment to accept the fact that they don't know who she is at all. Not even the Green Grace or Hizdahr or Xaro Xhoa Daxos or Khal Jhaqo know who Dany is.

Hell, Dany doesn't even know who she is or what she wants 25% of the time. How the hell is anyone else supposed to know???

So yes...in the end, Aegon is fool enough to marry someone anyone else. Why? Because he doesn't know her and he surrounds himself with people (many of whom aren't even competent in their area of expertise) who enable and inflate him.

Yes, the Storm's End win is a big deal. It's a huge deal...especially if it is followed by the downfall of Mace Tyrell. But given Aegon's personality, I'm willing to bet money that the boy is going to let the win at Storm's End go to his head.

If Aegon wants to be successful, he has to be better than Robb. And although Robb was never one to win a battle or two and believe that he is God's gift to the art of war...he still got way too sure of himself.

Pre Rant:  Great points about the agreement between Oberyn & Darry.

You seem pretty certain that Aegon is a brat.  Not the 1st time I have seen this.  You have no location listed.  I am in Mordor.  Not an even remotely nice place.  This is a dry, hot, brutal dead place where I am.  I live with ugly misshapen creatures here.  However, if anyone showed up on a living dragon forget 2 others in tow, I would be awed.  Now if this person was foretold recently, say by some nasty tempered wicked dwarf I would likely take quick personal inventory and drop to my knees, swear immediate and eternal fealty and give said dragon rider anything they wished.  Point being dragons are game changers even for brats.  

I do understand your position.  I hope Aegon isn't that guy.  I hope Arianne finds a cute sell sword to have endless fantastic romance with on a ship far away from Westeros.  My small gleam of hope is that Arianne doesn't seem to find Lysano Mar (?) attractive in the least so perhaps she will be utterly repulsed by Aegon thereby avoiding that bullet, leaving only Elia to deal with.  But this is ASOIAF and none of that will happen and you are probably right and it will all be a sad waste of effort and humanity.  Can I still hope that Arianne and Dany hook up? 

[KingAerys_II]

You forget that the lord of the Stormlands know that Tommen is not Baratheon and some don't like Stannis because of Melisandre, as Orys, Edric is a bastard, but he is similar to Robert in his youth, he will help Aegon to defeat Cersei who ordered the death of lots of Robert's kids, but after Cersei death, Edric would be safe. 

Instead if Myrcella dies, Trystane can marry a Queen with three dragons 

[csuszka1948]

On 6/11/2023 at 12:11 PM, Craving Peaches said:

That's what I am saying. They have been following the right strategy but Doran is going to throw it all away because of his thirst for vengeance...

 

To be honest, it's a bit more complicated. Doran has tried to keep Dorne out of unwinnable (or risky) wars to avoid devastation on the smallfolk, but was willing to use his children as pawns to achieve his vengeance.

He sent Arianne to Aegon to observe whether he has dragons or not and send a message accordingly ("dragon" or "war", the first means war the second peace), but Arianne is jealous of Quentyn and wants to avoid Quentyn becoming King, so she will support Aegon instead and this will lead to catastrophe. Similarly, sending the Sand Snakes to KL will have a bloody result, I wouldn't be surprised if Tyene poisoned Tommen and  Nymeria was killed.

Overall, my expectation is that Doran will outlive his children (except probably Trystane) and family, but Dorne itself will be barely touched by the war.

[KingAerys_II]

Euron Greyjoy will sack the Planky Town and cause mess in the Greenbold, the siege of Old Town will never happen, it's impossible for his small fleet to attack a city comparable to King's Landing. I don't think in the Cthulu thing, Euron will attack an easier prey, Dorne is near to the Steps tones,  and Tor and Ghost Hill have no the force to reject the fleet of Euron

[KingAerys_II]

On 6/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, BlackLightning said:

See, I'm going to stop you right there.

Dany was never ever pledged to marry any presumably dead prince.

The one who was "pledged" to marry was Viserys. And I use the term pledged very loosely because neither Viserys nor Arianne never knew about or consented to such a pledge. Even if you go with the argument that their legal guardians signed the pledged on their behalf and acted as witnesses, where are they? All of the witnesses to such pledge are dead and the last one is on his deathbed. Moreover, Prince Doran never even signed it for Arianne. Her uncle did but her uncle is not her legal guardian.

It was never legally binding for Viserys and Arianne. So how can it be for Daenerys and Quentyn?

This is what I mean by the fact that Prince Doran is doing a bad job of playing the game. If he is going to be this fearful and secretive, then he needs to not play at all. Or at least, have a very different strategy.

Oh, it was definitely dirty. But it was bad advice.

Right but with the way that the personalities and temperaments of Aegon, Arianne and their allies are set up...

And for the record, Aegon is surrounded by a lot of yes-men so...

If Dany tries to cross over to Westeros and the Dornish repel or outright attack her because of the stuff that they heard and/or because of what they think she did to Quentyn, that's pretty substantial.

That's the thing. Aegon doesn't know what Dany is.

No one west of Volantis knows what Dany is. And most of the people east of Volantis don't know that much more about her either.

That's the problem. People like Connington, Doran, Illyrio, Tyrion and Varys keep making plans based on what they know about Dany without taking a moment to accept the fact that they don't know who she is at all. Not even the Green Grace or Hizdahr or Xaro Xhoa Daxos or Khal Jhaqo know who Dany is.

Hell, Dany doesn't even know who she is or what she wants 25% of the time. How the hell is anyone else supposed to know???

So yes...in the end, Aegon is fool enough to marry someone anyone else. Why? Because he doesn't know her and he surrounds himself with people (many of whom aren't even competent in their area of expertise) who enable and inflate him.

Yes, the Storm's End win is a big deal. It's a huge deal...especially if it is followed by the downfall of Mace Tyrell. But given Aegon's personality, I'm willing to bet money that the boy is going to let the win at Storm's End go to his head.

If Aegon wants to be successful, he has to be better than Robb. And although Robb was never one to win a battle or two and believe that he is God's gift to the art of war...he still got way too sure of himself.

The Young Dragon is the Alexander the Great of Asoiaf, Young Griff is very similar to him, so if he uses elephants, it's a character based on Phyrrus and Hannibal Barca, both used elephant and they were great generals, the only ones that defeated the Romans in the battle they fought, so he will conquer Westeros with elephants, there is the need of someone who must unite Westeros against the army of death

[Loose Bolt]

18 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

The Young Dragon is the Alexander the Great of Asoiaf, Young Griff is very similar to him, so if he uses elephants, it's a character based on Phyrrus and Hannibal Barca, both used elephant and they were great generals, the only ones that defeated the Romans in the battle they fought, so he will conquer Westeros with elephants, there is the need of someone who must unite Westeros against the army of death

Common thing about Pyrrhus and Hannibal was that both of them won battles but lost wars they fought. So I assume that (f)Aegon will have similar destiny. Or he will fail to secure his throne. 

Totally another thing is that elephants are logistical nightmare. Or instead of feeding just 1 elephant one could easily feed at least 20 cavalrymen and their horses and any sane general would choose those cavalrymen instead of battle elephant(s). Besides we saw that there was already some snow in Riverlands. So incoming winter would make feeding those even more difficult. Naturally assuming that cold weather and diseases just don't kill most elephants b4 they could starve to death.

Edited August 6 by Loose Bolt
typo

[BlackLightning]

On 6/20/2023 at 1:01 PM, Curled Finger said:

You seem pretty certain that Aegon is a brat.  Not the 1st time I have seen this.  You have no location listed.  I am in Mordor.  Not an even remotely nice place.  This is a dry, hot, brutal dead place where I am.  I live with ugly misshapen creatures here.  However, if anyone showed up on a living dragon forget 2 others in tow, I would be awed.  Now if this person was foretold recently, say by some nasty tempered wicked dwarf I would likely take quick personal inventory and drop to my knees, swear immediate and eternal fealty and give said dragon rider anything they wished.  Point being dragons are game changers even for brats.  

I do understand your position.  I hope Aegon isn't that guy.  I hope Arianne finds a cute sell sword to have endless fantastic romance with on a ship far away from Westeros.  My small gleam of hope is that Arianne doesn't seem to find Lysano Mar (?) attractive in the least so perhaps she will be utterly repulsed by Aegon thereby avoiding that bullet, leaving only Elia to deal with.  But this is ASOIAF and none of that will happen and you are probably right and it will all be a sad waste of effort and humanity.  Can I still hope that Arianne and Dany hook up? 

I don't think Aegon is a brat.

I just think that Aegon has to be better than Robb if he wants to be successful. Unfortunately, however, Aegon has a lot less going for him than Robb did.

Robb was something of a military genius who never lost a battle and stood a good chance of retaking the North. Yet Robb made a couple of big mistakes and he got way too ahead of himself.

[Lee-Sensei]

On 6/10/2023 at 5:52 AM, James West said:

He already has.  Revenge is never a good motive for governing.  Another way to explain this is it is never good to govern when the desire is revenge.  The same criticism applies to Jon.  Just look what revenge led Jon to do.  He murdered Janos.  That act was the beginning of the downwards slide to disaster for Jon and the watch.  Doran is doing the same thing but taking it slowly.  Sending an inadequate son to do a man's job and making big offers they cannot back up was dumb.  The son was a weak boy who went as far as trying to steal dragons.  Jon and Quentin deserved what they received and got their comeuppance.  Doran's day is coming.  

I'm probably forgetting something, but how did Janos' execution lead to Jon's downfall? I think Doran is going to get his, but Quentin was an innocent. I like the Martells and I don't think it was George's intention, but Doran really comes across as a bush league schemer.

[maesternewton]

On 6/8/2023 at 8:41 PM, Craving Peaches said:

By 'ruin' I mean cause lots of Dornish people to die. I have seen people say that Doran, who until now has kept Dorne out of fighting, will eventually join the fray as part of his vengeance plan and it will just cause innocent people to suffer in the end. I agree. When Doran does his whole 'Fire and Blood' speech, it just seems like it will not end well, especially given how Ellaria talks about the endless destructive cycle of vengeance beforehand. To be clear, I am not saying it was wrong for Doran to want justice for Elia and her children, and it was understandable that he wanted revenge, however as Ellaria points out, all the perpetrators are dead, and killing more (innocent) people is not going to give the dead any rest or bring them back. I feel like Doran will throw away the peace Dorne has for revenge-based motives and it will end badly. Having said that, Dornish people would probably die anyway because they all really seem to want war for some reason...

People will definitely die, most likely the men who will be called to arms to fight for FAegon, but I believe that war won't touch Dorne.

It seems like Doran is reluctant to go to war or has been playing it cautious because he fears the innocent getting harmed in a war that could come to Dorne. His wish will definitely become true with Dorne being one of the few kingdoms to not be touched by war. 

Which is a contrast to the North, which will be heavily battered by the Ironborn invasion, the war between the Starks and Boltons, and the War for Dawn. 

On 6/8/2023 at 9:00 PM, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

What's to ruin? The place is a mess.

How is it a mess?

[KingAerys_II]

Euron is the only threat around Dorne, Doran could keep his pacific strategy, but he must be ready, the Ironborn proved to be able to raid the rivers coasts, he potentially could make assaults in the Greenbold, or Tor and Ghost Hill. 

Then If Myrcella dies, Cersei could retaliate. 

The stony dornishmen could join the Golden Company, Yronwood, Wyl are Blackfyre loyalists. 

 

Edited August 22 by KingAerys_II

[BlackLightning]

15 hours ago, maesternewton said:

I believe that war won't touch Dorne.

I strongly disagree.

Once the Wall falls and the Others advance far enough, every nook and cranny of Westeros will have a walking dead problem. Otherwise, what's the point of the Long Night?

Besides, I think the bulk of Dany's forces are going to make landfall in Dorne instead of on Dragonstone. I think Euron is going to prevent a smooth, organized landing of Dany's forces.

Just like how Rhaegar took Elia of Dorne and then took Lyanna of the North, the Others will descend on the people of Westeros from the north and Dany will carve her way from the south.

[Lee-Sensei]

On 6/8/2023 at 12:41 PM, Craving Peaches said:

By 'ruin' I mean cause lots of Dornish people to die. I have seen people say that Doran, who until now has kept Dorne out of fighting, will eventually join the fray as part of his vengeance plan and it will just cause innocent people to suffer in the end. I agree. When Doran does his whole 'Fire and Blood' speech, it just seems like it will not end well, especially given how Ellaria talks about the endless destructive cycle of vengeance beforehand. To be clear, I am not saying it was wrong for Doran to want justice for Elia and her children, and it was understandable that he wanted revenge, however as Ellaria points out, all the perpetrators are dead, and killing more (innocent) people is not going to give the dead any rest or bring them back. I feel like Doran will throw away the peace Dorne has for revenge-based motives and it will end badly. Having said that, Dornish people would probably die anyway because they all really seem to want war for some reason...

Doran is a weird guy. It seems clear to me that George wants us to see Doran as a highly intelligent schemer, but what did he achieve? I sympathize with the Martells. I even support to an extent their desire for revenge. But Doran let the moment slip and now everyone that was involved in these atrocities are dead.

 

Quote

"My own mother said those same words to me when I was old enough to leave the pools. It is an easy thing for a prince to call the spears, but in the end the children pay the price. For their sake, the wise prince will wage non war without good cause, nor any war he cannot hope to win."

This is still a great quote. Doran has been a good Lord imo, but it's unclear if he'll remain a good Lord moving forward.

Edited August 23 by Lee-Sensei

[KingAerys_II]

I suppose Taena of Myr is an agent hired by Doran, she knows lots of things about Qyburn, something that could be used against Cersei. 

Tyene is going to play the role of a Septa, if she tells to the High Septon about Qyburn experiments, Cersei could risk further accusations, a potential victim of Tyene poison is Lancel