Could Robb and a united Northern/Frey army have defeated Tywin at the Green Fork?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Yes, I was inspired by CravingPeaches' post to make this one, because I think it makes for a more interesting 'what if' scenaro.

Given that Robb would have outnumbered Tywin's army, and he would have had an enhanced element of surprise due to his warging ability, I think there was a strong chance that Robb could have defeated Tywin's army. And depending on how badly he beat him, that would have changed everything in regards to the War of the Five Kings. A Lannister defeat at the Green Fork means that Jaime would very likely have lifted the siege of Riverrun and gone after Robb. Plus with Tywin and/or Tyrion and/or Kevan as Robb's prisoner instead of Jaime, that means House Lannister is basically doomed. Even better if Tywin and/or Tyrion and/or Kevan die(s) in the battle or its aftermath.

And yes, there is a chance of a Northern defeat at the battle, of course there is, but I don't think it would have happened.

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Floki of the Ironborn

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

Isn't the whole Westerling honeypot a tacit admission by Tywin that he at least believed that Robb could have won?

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

Yes, not only possible, it’d be likely. Robb was leagues ahead of Tywin in ability to command and strategize.

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Yes, I was inspired by CravingPeaches' post to make this one

4 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

because I think it makes for a more interesting 'what if' scenaro.

5 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Given that Robb would have outnumbered Tywin's army, and he would have had an enhanced element of surprise due to his warging ability, I think there was a strong chance that Robb could have defeated Tywin's army. And depending on how badly he beat him, that would have changed everything in regards to the War of the Five Kings. A Lannister defeat at the Green Fork means that Jaime would very likely have lifted the siege of Riverrun and gone after Robb. Plus with Tywin and/or Tyrion and/or Kevan as Robb's prisoner instead of Jaime, that means House Lannister is basically doomed. Even better if Tywin and/or Tyrion and/or Kevan die(s) in the battle or its aftermath.

And yes, there is a chance of a Northern defeat at the battle, of course there is, but I don't think it would have happened.

Agree. I think Tywin can be overrated as a general sometimes, every victory he has he conveniently outnumbers his opponent (I think).

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Yes, I was inspired by CravingPeaches' post to make this one, because I think it makes for a more interesting 'what if' scenaro.

Given that Robb would have outnumbered Tywin's army, and he would have had an enhanced element of surprise due to his warging ability, I think there was a strong chance that Robb could have defeated Tywin's army. And depending on how badly he beat him, that would have changed everything in regards to the War of the Five Kings. A Lannister defeat at the Green Fork means that Jaime would very likely have lifted the siege of Riverrun and gone after Robb. Plus with Tywin and/or Tyrion and/or Kevan as Robb's prisoner instead of Jaime, that means House Lannister is basically doomed. Even better if Tywin and/or Tyrion and/or Kevan die(s) in the battle or its aftermath.

And yes, there is a chance of a Northern defeat at the battle, of course there is, but I don't think it would have happened.

 

Without the freys the battle cant really take place at the green fork .

If you mean outside the twins then id say tywin takes it esp given 3k or so of his green fork force were freys who would now be on the other side.

With the strength of thetwins and the imagined  threat of the vale comming id be likely tywin would be on the defensive.

[Alden Rothack]

1 hour ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

Yes, not only possible, it’d be likely. Robb was leagues ahead of Tywin in ability to command and strategize.

Tywin lost to edmure despite outnumbering him.

[James Arryn]

It’s a misunderstanding to assume that because Robb had shown serious tactical nous, that he was destined to defeat Tywin. Also thinking Tywin is overrated is, imo, premature. We only read a line or two about the results of his and Jaime’s blitz into the Riverlands, but if we’d read that from a Lannister sympathetic POV we might think Tywin or Jaime were geniuses. 
 

First, when it comes to commanders, there are a bunch who just can’t do the job effectively. Especially as armies get larger, there are seriously bright strategic thinkers who get overwhelmed by the little stuff. Then you get levels or competence and specialization, etc. Tywin’s only real ‘mistake’ was assuming that Robb was a ‘green boy’ and assuming Walder Frey would be the same man he’s always been. Both of those are extremely good assumptions to make…and a military commander in the field doesn’t have the luxury of withholding judgment until all the facts present themselves. So this was more just him getting very bad luck that Robb was a rare 14 o 15 year old prodigy. 
 

And then, he fails at a river crossing, but there’s not a military commander alive who hasn’t failed at a river crossing, they greatly favour defenders and don’t really allow for much improvisation beyond the old send troops to look for a further crossing, but in the RL the RLanders are going to know those better. To me this is just a footnote except for how it ended up mattering.

Lastly, Tywin organizing the RW doesn’t mean Tywin is afraid or Robb, it just means he has adjusted his calculations to account for the original error and is now seeing Robb as the threat he is. Tywin still likely thinks he can beat Robb in a set piece battle*, and probably feels that a lot of the advantages Robb had in the RL will be his out west. But Tywin has a lot of forks in the fire, and the Red Wedding is, from a practical standpoint, a brilliant way of having your cake and eating it. Now had Balon Greyjoy not been the guy who always chooses the worst option guy, who knows how that would have played out. 
 

But with the IB in the North, Tywin’s recognition that his former impetus was now Robb’s and his subsequent decision to focus on the same decisive chokepoint (Twins) and concentrate his efforts on bringing the Freys and Bolton into the fold, leaving him to deal with the threats to KL in person is signs of a serious strategic mind at work. Saying he ‘got lucky’…everyone who wins gets lucky. Robb got lucky himself at the WW; he was still shaking with how close Jaime came to ending the war right there some time later when talking to Cat, for example. But Tywin showed real strategic brilliance from different depths. If you were to ask which commander in the war had experienced the most varied and sustained successes during the Wof5K, an objective observer would probably say Tywin. It’s become common to downplay his skill because of how many things outside his control went his way, but the point is he took brilliant advantage of each. Not sure what more should be asked of him to understand he’s a real strategist. 

* and he well might, Robb has little experience in that kind of fighting, but of course that might be why he’d likely be trying to avoid them and just dangling the prospect in front of Tywin to further the ambush campaign. But as mentioned, he’d now be doing that where Tywin has the local knowledge/support/reinforcements, an extremely different dynamic, and now too Tywin is wary of him. Would have been interesting. 

Edited June 8, 2023 by James Arryn

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

1 hour ago, Alden Rothack said:

Tywin lost to edmure despite outnumbering him.

And if Edmure hadn’t engaged, Tywin would’ve walked right into a trap

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

More likely than not.

[James Steller]

5 hours ago, James Arryn said:

So this was more just him getting very bad luck that Robb was a rare 14 o 15 year old prodigy. 
 

And therefore, he would still have been underestimating him at the Green Fork. I think Robb definitely could have ended the war in his favour if he’d hadn’t tried to neutralize both armies instead of focusing on one of them. Honestly, even if Robb hadnt secured the Twins and just gone to fight Tywin with his northern forces, he still would have had a good chance of winning. True, that puts Edmure’s life at risk, and Riverrun might have fallen, but killing or capturing Tywin would have been worth the cost. It ends the war for House Lannister utterly, even though Jaime would go down fighting and Cersei might detonate the wildfire.

[James Steller]

6 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

Tywin lost to edmure despite outnumbering him.

Just adding that Edmure gets way too much crap. He is easily one of the best noblemen in Westeros. He’s not a military genius, but he’s far from incompetent. He’s also got his priorities straight when it comes to looking after his people. I admire Stannis, but he needed three books to learn something that Edmure always knew. 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

9 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

 

 

That was unworthy. I'm a flippant man, and bitter. Forgive me, ser/lady

Edited June 9, 2023 by Floki of the Ironborn

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

That was unworthy. I'm a flippant man, and bitter. Forgive me, ser/lady

You are forgiven.

[Alden Rothack]

8 hours ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

And if Edmure hadn’t engaged, Tywin would’ve walked right into a trap

doesn't change the fact that Edmure won the battle

 

3 hours ago, James Steller said:

Just adding that Edmure gets way too much crap. He is easily one of the best noblemen in Westeros. He’s not a military genius, but he’s far from incompetent. He’s also got his priorities straight when it comes to looking after his people. I admire Stannis, but he needed three books to learn something that Edmure always knew. 

Yes and no, he does make a number of mistakes in his handling of the war such as not keeping his forces together after the siege of riverrun, Edmures two problems are inexperience and not being a charismatic brillant commander like Robb or the young Robert.

Stannis is brillant at what he knows and would have been great in Kevins role as dutiful second son but his people skills are awful.

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

19 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

doesn't change the fact that Edmure won the battle

 

Yes and no, he does make a number of mistakes in his handling of the war such as not keeping his forces together after the siege of riverrun, Edmures two problems are inexperience and not being a charismatic brillant commander like Robb or the young Robert.

Stannis is brillant at what he knows and would have been great in Kevins role as dutiful second son but his people skills are awful.

I wasn’t shutting on Edmure. The fact he beat Tywin shows his skill, and again shows Tywin’s lack therof. 

[Alden Rothack]

18 minutes ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

I wasn’t shutting on Edmure. The fact he beat Tywin shows his skill, and again shows Tywin’s lack therof. 

Tywin gets by on ruthlessness and sheer resources, Renly for example would have crushed him despite his personal failings because of how badly outnumbered he would have been

[The hairy bear]

I think that the proposed scenario would be a coin toss, perhaps with slightly better chances for the Lannister side.

Robb would have  some advantage with the numbers (22k vs. 20 k., if I'm not miscalculating), but Tywin would have a much better horse/foot ratio, a better equipped army and the choice of the terrain.

5 hours ago, James Steller said:

Honestly, even if Robb hadnt secured the Twins and just gone to fight Tywin with his northern forces, he still would have had a good chance of winning. True, that puts Edmure’s life at risk, and Riverrun might have fallen, but killing or capturing Tywin would have been worth the cost. It ends the war for House Lannister

While I think that Robb had reasonable chances of defeating Tywin's army, I'd say that the probability of being able to capture or kill him is very, very small.

Tywin is a cautious man that commands from the rear. He is cunning, experienced, and always surrounded by very loyal men. He is not some impulsive youth who would lead a brave charge against the enemy spears, or die heroically standing to the last man. If the battle goes south, he will just retreat or flee.

[frenin]

Could he? Yeah. Would he? Who knows. Was it good to gamble everything in one pitched battle? No.

[Corvo the Crow]

 

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I think that the proposed scenario would be a coin toss, perhaps with slightly better chances for the Lannister side.

Robb would have  some advantage with the numbers (22k vs. 20 k., if I'm not miscalculating), but Tywin would have a much better horse/foot ratio, a better equipped army and the choice of the terrain

Even without Freys he had a good chance. Just look at Roose getting the drop on Tywin and that is without even having Blackfish in his army who we’ve learned is excellent in both scouting and eliminating enemy scouts and as a son of Rivverrun and Knight of the Bloody Gate for many years, could know of paths that could lead some men behind enemy lines.

Roose had slightly fewer men but was at a serious disadvantage where cavalry was concerned. If he had more, he could’ve wreaked havoc in Tywin’s camp long before they spotted the main body of his army as evident by the incompetence of Tywin’s scouts.

Robb’s host + Frey’s combined makes 23.000 men or so after the garrisons left at MC(Ned planned 200) and Twins (800) and they had 6000 or so horse to Tywin’s 7000-7500. 
 

Robb wouldn’t just have crushed Tywin in the field but he would’ve given pursuit after the initial battle, cornering him at the Ruby Ford for a second Fishfeed.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[sifth]

Tywin lost a lot of street cred, as a military commander, after losing to Edmure. So yea, I'm almost certain with Robb's greater numbers, he could take Tywin. Heck Robb even has his own Moutain, with the Greatjon.

Also Robb had the Black Fish on his side, one the greatest military advisors in the series.

Edited June 9, 2023 by sifth