Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust

[Fez]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The first half of that seems plausible at least.  If Wagner had been able to (relatively) bloodlessly storm an army base and capture Shoigu + Gerasimov, then that would be a mutiny, but it would only indirectly threaten Putin, and I could at least see a possibility of Wagner/Prigozhin getting Putin's forgiveness. 

Shows a real lack of ambition then that he didn't go all the way after seeing just how easy the march on Moscow went.

[Zorral]

Multiple sources are now saying General Sergei Surovikin been arrested:

https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/104074/russia-arrest-general-wagner-rebellion

Looking worse and worse for Prigozhin, but hopefully, still better for Ukraine forces and Zelensky.

[Zorral]

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

Shows a real lack of ambition then that he didn't go all the way after seeing just how easy the march on Moscow wen

The consensus regarding what we don't know about this, today has hardened around the expectation there would be more overt support in Moscow, particularly out of the army, but it wasn't there, so they had to abort.

We can speculate with regard to these speculations, that if he'd continued to Moscow the support would have materialized. 

[Maithanet]

19 minutes ago, Fez said:

Shows a real lack of ambition then that he didn't go all the way after seeing just how easy the march on Moscow went.

The official Russian line is that he told his troops to stop because otherwise they were going to get defeated and (eventually) crushed.  Wasn't reporting that the column was something like 250-400 vehicles?  Some of those are tanks, but that isn't exactly a huge squad.  How many men could we be talking about?  I've heard estimates like 4,000 to 8,000.  Could they really have just waltzed into central Moscow?  Even having seen how ridiculously easy it was to get as far as they did, I'm very skeptical. 

And even if they could, what were they going to do?  Seize the Kremlin?  Then what?  Start ordering around the military?  If they weren't following you before you seized the kremlin, I sorta doubt that just taking the building is going to cause a huge change of heart.

Prigozhin's plan made little sense, but I think that his surrender with (terrible) terms is somewhat understandable.  He was hoping that the military would not just stand aside, but actually join him.  They didn't.  Once that didn't happen, the bluff is over, and there's no need to find out if ten high is gonna take it. 

Edited June 28 by Maithanet

[Derfel Cadarn]

52 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The official Russian line is that he told his troops to stop because otherwise they were going to get defeated and (eventually) crushed.  Wasn't reporting that the column was something like 250-400 vehicles?  Some of those are tanks, but that isn't exactly a huge squad.  How many men could we be talking about?  I've heard estimates like 4,000 to 8,000.  Could they really have just waltzed into central Moscow?  Even having seen how ridiculously easy it was to get as far as they did, I'm very skeptical. 

And even if they could, what were they going to do?  Seize the Kremlin?  Then what?  Start ordering around the military?  If they weren't following you before you seized the kremlin, I sorta doubt that just taking the building is going to cause a huge change of heart.

Prigozhin's plan made little sense, but I think that his surrender with (terrible) terms is somewhat understandable.  He was hoping that the military would not just stand aside, but actually join him.  They didn't.  Once that didn't happen, the bluff is over, and there's no need to find out if ten high is gonna take it. 

The Telegraph paper reported that a claim that thr FSB (or whatever) had threatened to go for the families of the senior wagner commanders.

[Kalbear]

Yeah, from what I've heard and read Prigozhin had very little option. He was being pushed out by the MoD and that almost certainly meant he'd be killed. He didn't want to seize power in the first place - just get rid of Shoigu - but you can't really do that otherwise.

So he took a deal that might in theory let him live. Maybe. Probably not. But his other option was almost certainly going to fail given how little other support that he produced, and 8k troops is not enough to depose putin unless a lot of others fall in to support him.

Just feels like the simplest explanation - q desperate man known for doing impulsive shit doing something relatively stupid - is probably the best explanation.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

The official Russian line is that he told his troops to stop because otherwise they were going to get defeated and (eventually) crushed.  Wasn't reporting that the column was something like 250-400 vehicles?  Some of those are tanks, but that isn't exactly a huge squad.  How many men could we be talking about?  I've heard estimates like 4,000 to 8,000.  Could they really have just waltzed into central Moscow?  Even having seen how ridiculously easy it was to get as far as they did, I'm very skeptical. 

And even if they could, what were they going to do?  Seize the Kremlin?  Then what?  Start ordering around the military?  If they weren't following you before you seized the kremlin, I sorta doubt that just taking the building is going to cause a huge change of heart.

Prigozhin's plan made little sense, but I think that his surrender with (terrible) terms is somewhat understandable.  He was hoping that the military would not just stand aside, but actually join him.  They didn't.  Once that didn't happen, the bluff is over, and there's no need to find out if ten high is gonna take it. 

I think the nearly century old goal of coups still applies: seize control of the central broadcasting systems in Moscow. Then start issuing announcements about how you're protecting Russia from enemies within (maybe even something like 'Putin is in protective custody to keep him safe from these enemies') and denounce messages to the contrary, even Putin's, as fakes and lies. And start issuing orders to the military, police, and everyone else.

The media is so non-existent, and decision-making so centralized, that it might've worked. If the orders come through the same channels that orders always come through, a lot of people might've gone along with it.

And if it fails horribly? Well, the current path seems like it ends in Prigozhin's death too.

[ThinkerX]

If the regular Russian army gets their butts stomped in Ukraine - which seems at least possible, if not probable - then perhaps Wagner will be back for the Coup, Part 2....or maybe the other 'Russian Rebels' will make a go at it. 

[mormont]

What's interesting to me, though, is the bit Putin doesn't want to talk about: the fact that there was not a lot of resistance, and some support, among the general population for the Wagner column. Putin's not a tactical genius or a magnetic personality. His strength as a dictator has always lain in providing stability. Yet this episode suggests that's going or gone. If he can't provide that any more, he's toast.

[Werthead]

The public in Rostov cheering Wagner, citizens turning out to give them food and drink and chanting their names as they left, was quite bizarre.

Wagner have successfully cultivated a rockstar image in Russia that is very, very surreal.

[Makk]

Putin is claiming Russia paid Prigohzins catering company $2 billion usd over the last year. There will now be an investigation to make sure it was spent appropriately and nothing was "stolen". You wouldn't normally trust putin but I imagine the number is a public record.

I don't believe wagner will be able to maintain it's remaining numbers while not actively engaged in mercenary work. 

I think this entire thing seems to have worked out well for Ukraine. It would have been nice to see some actual attrition but having wagner effectively removed and putin remaining in power is much better than prigohzin taking over. He is every bit as psychopathic but has a much tighter control of his underlings. 

 

[karaddin]

I'm still just amazed he had any level of confidence that standing down and making a deal would work out for him. If I think the deal has a 20% chance of keeping me alive and throws away all my leverage but continuing the coup has a 10% or even 5% chance of working then the long shot at actually winning seems like better odds.

But I'd never be there in the first place do I guess that makes me poorly equipped to imagine how they think.

[ThinkerX]

But what does Putin do in six or ten months when the Russian army in Ukraine completely collapses and the Russian Rebels attempt a repeat of Wagner's 'march on Moscow?' To me, this isn't totally out of the question anymore. Not likely, but not completely absurd.

 

[karaddin]

Oh I don't think this was good for Putin either, I just fully expect Prigozhin to not be in any position to capitalize on future weakness most likely on account of already being dead

[Fez]

Wagner recruiting offices are open again throughout Russia. I wonder though if people who sign up are still actually joining Wagner though or are being filtered into the regular army. It's all very bizarre.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

 

 

9 hours ago, Zorral said:

Hmmm.  If speculations are founded, this may not be boding well for Prigozhin.

According to retweets on Josh Marshall (Talking Points) feed the Moscow Times says sources told them:

"Senior  has not been seen since recording a video in the early hours of Saturday morning as the Wagner mutiny began, according to several people familiar with the matter"

The Guardian too:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/28/russian-general-wagner-mutiny-goes-missing

 

although I agree things look bad for Prigozhin,  if I was him in this situation I would also go missing and not be where Putin could find me.  However I think its shown the Prigozhin is not a good judge of the odds with his poorly planned march and surrender so its most likely Putin knows exactly where he is.

[Zorral]

9 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

 

 

although I agree things look bad for Prigozhin,  if I was him in this situation I would also go missing and not be where Putin could find me.  However I think its shown the Prigozhin is not a good judge of the odds with his poorly planned march and surrender so its most likely Putin knows exactly where he is.

Not that it matters, since I know nothing, but  Ha!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It’s way too early to write off the Ukrainian counteroffensive

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/29/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-west/

Quote

 

.... In truth, the plodding pace of the advance should not be a surprise or a cause for serious concern, yet.

Very few offensives advance as swiftly as Operation Desert Storm — and that was only possible because of the massive technological advantage that the United States and its allies enjoyed over Iraq. Before the ground war even began in 1991, allied forces spent more than five weeks pummeling Iraqi forces with everything from Tomahawk cruise missiles to B-52 bombers. Then, after the unrelenting attacks from the air, allied ground forces were able to stage a giant “left hook” through the sands of Saudi Arabia to go around the fortified Iraqi positions in Kuwait.

Neither option is available to the Ukrainians: They don’t have air superiority, and there is no way they can go around Russian fortifications that stretch across 600 miles of front unless they were to advance through Russian territory to strike the Russian positions in Ukraine from the rear. The problem with that is that the United States forbids Ukraine from using U.S.-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory.

The one time in this war the Russians were caught with their pants down was during the surprise Ukrainian attack in Kharkiv province in September, which liberated more than 1,100 square miles in a matter of days. But that feat is hard to replicate. More typical was the Ukrainian counteroffensive that required more than two months (from Aug. 29 to Nov. 11, 2022) to liberate the southern city of Kherson.

The Ukrainian task today is considerably more difficult than it was then because, in the seven months since, the Kremlin has mobilized many more men and built many more fortifications and minefields. The Ukrainians are now advancing through thick minefields across flat, open ground toward the main Russian defensive position known as the Surovikin Line (named after a Russian general who allegedly knew in advance of the Wagner uprising). The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties — something that bloodthirsty Russian commanders don’t care about. It is doubtful that any Western military could do any better without air superiority.

The Ukrainians are hoping to limit their losses by interdicting Russian supply lines with long-range strikes utilizing British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. A Storm Shadow was apparently responsible for a direct hit on the bridge linking Crimea to Kherson province — a key supply node for Russian forces. “The Storm Shadow missile has had a significant impact on the battlefield,” British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said on Monday. But it takes time before the impact of striking supply lines is felt in shortages of artillery shells and fuel at the front.

Most of Ukraine’s nine Western-trained and Western-equipped assault brigades have not even entered the fight yet. The “main event” is still to come, says Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Russian media hyped early Ukrainian setbacks that resulted in the loss of some Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks. But, by all accounts, the Western armored vehicles protected their crews from serious injury, and the vast majority of Ukraine’s Western tanks and armored vehicles remain intact.

What we are seeing now are probing attacks to find a weak spot in the Russian lines — or create one. Mark Arnold, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general who has advised the Ukrainian military, told me that “the Ukrainians are attempting to provoke the Russians to committing mobile reserves to hit the Russians elsewhere.” If the Russians take the bait, the Ukrainian attack could gain momentum.

“While it is doubtful that this is where Ukrainian planners had hoped to be at this stage,” Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told me, “it is still well within the margin of expectations among analysts who expected an operation against a prepared defense to be difficult and costly. … It is too early to judge the course of the operation and early performance is not deterministic.”

Instead of judging the Ukrainians, the West should be doing more to aid them. While the United States has provided more than $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine — and U.S. allies have chipped in billions more — Ukraine has also paid $800 million for equipment that was never delivered or was delivered in such bad shape that it could not be used. As the New York Times reported: “A recent delivery of 33 self-propelled howitzers donated by the Italian government provides a case in point. Videos showed smoke billowing from the engine of one, and engine coolant leaking from another.”

Some U.S. equipment (including Bradley Fighting Vehicles and M777 howitzers) has also been so badly maintained, a knowledgeable Ukrainian observer told me, that it required extensive repairs before it could be employed — and some of those systems were simply cannibalized for parts.

There is also a lot of equipment that the Biden administration has simply refused to provide, such as the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that could help the Ukrainians to more effectively target Russian bases and supply lines in Crimea, or F-16s that could enable the Ukrainians to defend their troops from attacks by Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters. The F-16s might finally be on the way from Europe in the fall — too late to affect this counteroffensive. U.S. Abrams tanks will also arrive too late for this fighting season. In addition, the Ukrainians are short of armored mine-clearing vehicles and bridging equipment to traverse trenches.

While Secretary of State Antony Blinken claims that the Ukrainians “have in hand what they need to be successful,” that might not be true. If the Ukrainians succeed, it will be despite the limitations of their equipment and training. If their offensive doesn’t break through, it will be because they have not been given enough of the needed weapons — particularly modern fighter aircraft and long-range missiles. Any setbacks the Ukrainians suffer should cause the West to redouble its support rather than prematurely pushing for negotiations that will result in a frozen conflict.

We in the West can’t determine who rules in the Kremlin. But by backing Ukraine to the hilt, we can add to the pressure on Vladimir Putin’s criminal regime, whose cracks are beginning to show after nearly 16 months of war. Given growing evidence that part of the Russian military supported the Wagner revolt, Putin might have to purge his armed forces in the middle of the war. Simply removing the Wagner units — some of Russia’s most effective fighters — will make the invaders weaker. Ukraine can still take advantage — as long as its supporters in the West show the requisite patience.

 

 

[Werthead]

Ooh, the first Russian fixed-wing loss for a while, an Su-25 shot down by a MANPAD on the southern front. Some indications Russia is pushing aircraft forwards again to make up for other equipment deficiencies on the front, and the reason why pilots don't want to do that.

Meanwhile, a lesson on why Russian drone development is so shit they have to rely on countries like Iran to supply them:

Meanwhile, Shroedinger's ATACMs' dance continues. This is getting silly, since Storm Shadow has almost as comparable a range, so effectively a similar weapon is already in deployment in Ukraine:

Also, the big news from the last couple of days that snuck out under the Wagner blizzard is that Ukraine has secured a bridgehead on the south bank of the Dnipro across from Kherson city. They're on an island rather than the full mainland, but close enough to launch attacks and several Russian counter-pushes have been defeated. Some indications that Russian numbers in the region might have been stripped to help reinforce the east, under the belief that the flooding of the dam would have much longer-lasting effects than is the case.

I've seen a suggestion that the "Russian patriot forces" could make a drive towards Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. If they could cut off Valuyki, the resupply line to the entire Svatove-Kreminna front could collapse. Might be still a bit too ambitious at the moment though.

Edited June 29 by Werthead

[Which Tyler]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

Also, the big news from the last couple of days that snuck out under the Wagner blizzard is that Ukraine has secured a bridgehead on the south bank of the Dnipro across from Kherson city. They're on an island rather than the full mainland, but close enough to launch attacks and several Russian counter-pushes have been defeated. Some indications that Russian numbers in the region might have been stripped to help reinforce the east, under the belief that the flooding of the dam would have much longer-lasting effects than is the case.

I'd spotted that, but it really didn't seem to mean much to me. Better than not doing it, of course.

They've advanced about 1km across a bridge, and have 2.5km to go, including another bridge and a causeway - all of which is dead straight with no cover.
If they cross the Konka River, then we're talking - or even if they can secure the whole island, AND it can actually take machinery on much of it, but this seems like capturing a small village with no practical expectation that it can lead to anywhere else. Absolutley worthwhile, but not worth the song and dance it was receiving initially.

[Wilbur]

I think maybe the significance is not that the Ukrainians have gotten across the river and onto that beachhead, but that the Russians have lost that territory and not been able to expel them.

To me, it demonstrated the weakness of the Russian forces in that area.