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Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust


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Again, I'm strangely quite relieved at how this turned out.  I think ... but now, again, what does this mean, first, for Ukraine?

ETA: Partner just asked, "Did anything more happen in Russia while I was taking my bath?"

 

 

Edited by Zorral
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In the tweet about concessions that @Derfel Cadarn linked to on page one, it mentioned amnesty for Wagner mercs and their possible return to Africa. Imagine Putin wants to see them all dead at the bottom of a pit at this point. Whatever happens, I can't see them continuing as a fighting force in the Ukraine War. That at least should be of some help to Ukraine, even though it won't be decisive as Russia will continue to send men into the meat grinder. 

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It has too.  Putin looks weak.  Looking weak is very dangerous for him.

Was this some ruse to try to get Ukrainian forces to overextend or something?

 

If so, it would have been without Putin's permission. 

Edited by dog-days
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Just now, Werthead said:

Wild and unconfirmed rumour that, as part of the deal, Russia will announce full mobilisation on Monday.

jezeus

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22 minutes ago, dog-days said:

It's hard to imagine the kind of personality that ends up as the commander of a private army not trying to call Lukashenko/Putin's bluff. Unless Prigozhin's so egotistical/blind that he really thinks he can survive his retreat for more than a few weeks?

The only way this makes sense (to me anyway) is:

1.  Prigozhin is lying, the coup will continue.  Seems far-fetched as shock is essential.

2.  Prigozhin has actually won, and he has support from a sufficient portion of the Russian govt that he believes he can consolidate and freeze Putin out.  Either putin will be kept as a figurehead or disposed of later.

3.  Prigozhin knew his coup attempt would fail and took this deal.  He's planning to flee Putin's wrath ASAP.  

Edited by Maithanet
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Just now, Maithanet said:

The only way this makes sense (to me anyway) is:

1.  Prigozhin is lying, the coup will continue.  Seems far-fetched as shock is essential.

2.  Prigozhin has actually won, and he has sorry from a sufficient portion of the Russian govt that he believes he can consolidate and freeze Putin out.  Either position will be kept as a figurehead or disposed of later.

3.  Prigozhin knew his coup attempt would fail and took this deal.  He's planning to flee Putin's wrath ASAP.  

Right now, 3 seems more likely 

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17 minutes ago, Darryk said:

Meh, anti-climax.

Hope this still damages Putin in some way.

What I hope is this strengthens Ukraine.  But as Prigozhin has complained for long time that the official Russian military structure has been choking on materiel supplies to his forces, I worry.

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