Jump to content

Ukraine 31: Icarus Edition


Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Hmm.  I’m sure the majority of people there are still supportive but articles like the below are concerning.
Article

I mean, yes. It is concerning that the politicians are getting tired of it, at least right now. But I don't think that goes with the Polish people particularly much, and I don't think it's reasonable to question the general Polish population's motives and sincerity. 

Always question politicians! 

And trust me, I've been banging the drum over support for Ukraine waning as time goes on and major victories don't happen easily. I think the big difference is that with Poland this is a very sudden and likely election-defining calculus that is pretty different from the 18 months of messaging previously, whereas in the US Ukraine has been viewed as a way to somehow make political attacks on the Democratic candidate for POTUS since 2018 and the Republican candidate has long been seen as in bed with Russian interests. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I dont know why the Biden admin continues to waffle on ATACMs.  These would have been a HUGE factor last summer, and a big factor 6 months ago, but at this point Storm Shadow + Ukrainian long range stuff is doing ~ 75% of what ATACMs could do anyway.  Why not just hand them over?  They cost basically the same to decommission as it does to give them to Ukraine.

According to latest German media the US is actually sending ATACMS to Ukraine. Can someone who knows more about US politics confirm?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Bironic said:

According to latest German media the US is actually sending ATACMS to Ukraine. Can someone who knows more about US politics confirm?

The scuttlebutt yesterday was that the administration was still waffling about ATACMS.  Today (according to unnamed sources claiming to be in the room), Biden told Zelensky in their private meeting that the US would send ATACMS.  No official announcement has been made.  The problem is that "unofficial sources" have said that the US is either about to send or has decided to send ATACMs for at least 6 months, and there still hasn't been anything official.  Which is no doubt very frustrating for Ukraine. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

I mean, yes. It is concerning that the politicians are getting tired of it, at least right now. But I don't think that goes with the Polish people particularly much, and I don't think it's reasonable to question the general Polish population's motives and sincerity. 

Yeah, I don't think the general sentiment is shifting here or anything like that. The grain dispute is a problem for farmers who can't compete with Ukrainian prices, but I think politicians are making it even a bigger one than it actually is, because of elections. I'm pretty sure we will reach an agreement soon enough. As for not sending any more weapons, I don't think there was much more to it than "we don't actually have much more to send".

I mean, there were always far right nutjobs who were opposed to any kind of help or even plain anti-Ukrainian, but there are maybe a few percent of them in the general population, even less than the support for Konfederacja, as they are far from unanimous in that respect.

The polls are concerning though. It will be close, but there is a good chance PiS and Konfederacja will have a majority in the lower chamber of the Parliament and the opposition (excluding Konfederacja, which is not a part of democratic opposition) will not have a chance to form a new government. It would be tough for PiS too, as Konfederacja claims (for now) they're not going to form a coalition with PiS (and almost no poll gives PiS a chance to rule without a coalition partner, like during the last two terms) and I do believe they won't, as that would be a slippery slope for them (PiS has a history of devouring smaller, more radical coalition partners). So it can all come down to individual representatives on either side. PiS is also known for trying to persuade individuals to switch sides after election with some success, so even if they'd lack a few bodies to stay in power, it's not a given they would.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ukraine has achieved a bulls-eye strike on the Naval headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

A tremendous strike on the enemies command and control, the kind of news that lifts  spirit and morale for all Ukranians as well as its supporters.

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/webview/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-22-23?iid=cnn-mobile-app

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apparently more than 120 aviation accidents and incidents have been recorded in Russia between January and August 2023. Between 2018 and 2022, Russia averaged about 50 incidents a year.

Russia reporting this morning that all Storm Shadows in Ukraine have been destroyed in a counter-attack, somewhat oddly citing "Turkish sources" rather than their own military. Huh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Apparently more than 120 aviation accidents and incidents have been recorded in Russia between January and August 2023. Between 2018 and 2022, Russia averaged about 50 incidents a year.

Russia reporting this morning that all Storm Shadows in Ukraine have been destroyed in a counter-attack, somewhat oddly citing "Turkish sources" rather than their own military. Huh.

The Black Sea Hq seems to have ‘destroyed’ some storm shadows

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Continued Ukrainian bombardment at Zaitseve, taking out multiple Russian vehicles. The infantry positions around there have also been under long-range attack for several days solid. Very clearly the next Ukrainian target, which will allow them to envelop Bakhmut's southern front and put most of the resupply routes into the east of the city in medium and short-range artillery range. Russia probably now needs to consider a full withdrawal from Bakhmut, they can't hold the town without masses of reinforcements. In fact, it's a shitty town to try to defend, you need to control the heights around it and now Russia has lost those (as Ukraine did last year), it's probably best to pull out before it turns into a bloodbath. A good thing for Ukraine if they don't, of course, and just sacrifice troops to the grinder. But utterly pointless.

The local FSB HQ in Kursk was hit by a drone strike and seems to have been heavily damaged. No word on casualties. Russian air defences seem to have really been degraded along a wide swathe of the front now, even as far back as Russian territory. They should not be letting this many strikes through (some rumours that S-300 and S-400 units from around Kursk and other areas of the rear may have been transferred to replace the ones destroyed in Crimea, but unconfirmed as yet).

Really weird statement by Lavrov at the UN yesterday where he said that Russia recognises Ukraine within the terms of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of 16 July 1990, where in Russia recognised the state borders of Ukraine as those of the Ukrainian SSR, including the Donbas and Crimea (let alone what is now the land bridge). That seems to have confused a lot of people. I'm wondering if he is banking on the wording that states that Ukraine will be a "permanently neutral state" that will not seek membership of either western or eastern military blocs, which Ukraine will no longer agree to (because it's worthless) so ergo it's a meaningless statement but one that sounds good to Russian sympathisers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Really weird statement by Lavrov at the UN yesterday where he said that Russia recognises Ukraine within the terms of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of 16 July 1990, where in Russia recognised the state borders of Ukraine as those of the Ukrainian SSR, including the Donbas and Crimea (let alone what is now the land bridge). That seems to have confused a lot of people. I'm wondering if he is banking on the wording that states that Ukraine will be a "permanently neutral state" that will not seek membership of either western or eastern military blocs, which Ukraine will no longer agree to (because it's worthless) so ergo it's a meaningless statement but one that sounds good to Russian sympathisers.

If it were coupled with actual Russian troop withdrawals we’d all give it more credence.  But this is likely more Russian doubletalk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apparently the US has agreed to supply with Ukraine with "limited" ATACMs. It was unclear what they would be used for, but I've seen a good suggestion that they would be used to destroy Russian forward-operating helicopter bases. Russia has made excellent use of helicopters firing long-range missiles from outside of MANPADs range to disrupt Ukrainian advances. The bases they are operating from have been identified but are outside current artillery range, and Ukraine is preferring to use Storm Shadow to target rarer areas. ATACMs with dispersed cluster warheads could render these helicopter bases unusable and remove Russian air cover from the front.

Khalino Airbase in Kursk was hit at the same time as the FSB strike. Unclear of the extent of the damage.

Some concern in Ukrainian circles that Russian casualties dipped below 400 a day over the weekend for the first time in many months. Potentially a sign of the offensive having culminated? Or possibly an outlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...