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Israel - Hamas War 2


Kalbear
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Just now, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t think I’m missing the point. I wholeheartedly agree that Israel can never make peace or accept Hamas. Hamas must be dealt with, obliterated, wiped out for good. But the post I replied to gave the impression that there were people suggesting some time of peace deal between Hamas and Israel which, again, is a ludicrous and outrageous notion.
If what was meant was that Israel can’t make a peace deal w/ Gaza while Hamas is in control there, then maybe it should have been phrased like that. IMO.
I’m not nitpicking here. But I do think we should try to be careful with how we phrase things, especially in fraught times. We do have people w/ different opinions on some things here, and that’s fine; so far the discussion has been kept civil if a bit heated at times. And although I may have missed a post here and there, the one thing everyone seems to agree on is that Hamas is a nasty terrorist organisation and it has to go. 

There is no way to even make a dent in Hamas without an assault on Gaza that would make everything up to now seem tame, not to mention likely complete reoccupation of Gaza. So the current options are basically to just cease any further action and let Hamas remain in power, or go far beyond what has been done up to now to try and uproot them. Both options are shit.

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14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

although I may have missed a post here and there, the one thing everyone seems to agree on is that Hamas is a nasty terrorist organisation and it has to go. 

But do you denounce Hamas?/s
Honestly when a person does present Hamas as freedom fighters or downplay their actions it is prudent to pushback on their claims but no one here has done that and many have already given a clear articulation on why Hamas is terrible. Yet people still demand reaffirming that the terrorist org is bad as if saying how Israel is responding to the terror org is bad is saying Hamas is good.

Edited by Varysblackfyre321
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Peace is possible between enemies once time has passed, of course (as the EU itself indicates), and as Kal noted so many posts ago, exemplified by the Egypt-Israel peace treaty in the Middle East. However, it does require some sort of political will from both parties - Sadat had built quite a cache from being considered a hero in the previous Egypt-Israel war, and I presume the Israelis/Begin were game too.

However, in the short term there doesn't seem to be any hope here. Palestinians currently have useless leaders and its mantle is taken up by Hamas. Maybe in the future when Bibi exits the stage and someone charismatic arises for the Palestinians. Lot of what-ifs there though, and it's all ultimately depressing.

Edited by IheartIheartTesla
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3 minutes ago, JGP said:

This is true, but should be caveated that there hasn't been an election in Gaza since 2006, which is distinctive imo.

And it should be noted that less than half of the electorate at that time voted for Hamas, and that half the current population of Gaza is children, and that Hamas mandate to rule expired in 2014 but they refused to hold another election.

Edited by Craving Peaches
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Abbas has not faced an election since 2009, for that matter. The Palestinian Authority is a total mess. It has been one of many challenges.

But to me, the fact that Hamas is a dictatorial jihadist government seems like all the more reason to:

A) Wonder WTF insanity possessed Netanyahu to prop them up

B ) Welcome their forcible removal from power in hopes that something better will come for Gaza in the future

C) Hope that in the aftermath (A) will lead to a sea change in Israel's government that will change the complete tenor of how Israel approaches Palestinian statehood(s) in the future. I will not shed tears if investigations into the failure in preventing the Hamas attack leads to the Opposition finally forming a coalition that can kick the far-right and Likud to the curb.

 

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I understand that options right now are very limited - it’s either leave Hamas alone, which is ridiculous or go all in in an attempt to eradicate it once and for all, and this is atm the most likely course of action. And I hope I’m wrong, but I’m feeling incredible anxiety about the latter. Because I think there’s a fair chance that everything will get much worse. For instance, Israel goes all in and after X days, weeks, whatever, we have thousands upon thousands of dead civilians, Hamas isn't wiped out, and at some point international pressure will build for Israel to pull back. And then what? 

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16 minutes ago, Ran said:

Abbas has not faced an election since 2009, for that matter. The Palestinian Authority is a total mess. It has been one of many challenges.

But to me, the fact that Hamas is a dictatorial jihadist government seems like all the more reason to:

A) Wonder WTF insanity possessed Netanyahu to prop them up

 

We have that answer from Netanyahu repeatedly in this thread. His faction's hope and plan was that as long as Hamas ruled Gaza and the PLA was opposed to Hamas there would never be a united plan for a Palestinian state and Israel would not have to worry about it.

Them being a terrorist state with clear goals of eradication of Israel was a feature in this case. Having a ridiculously impotent enemy that you can control is much easier to manage than a competent enemy that can attract allies and concessions.

A better question is why Netanyahu and his faction stopped focusing on Gaza and pivoted to the West Bank. That seems very stupid, and polling so far concurs.

 

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5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

For instance, Israel goes all in and after X days, weeks, whatever, we have thousands upon thousands of dead civilians, Hamas isn't wiped out, and at some point international pressure will build for Israel to pull back. And then what? 

Given that there is no water, it will not be weeks before everyone is dead.

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4 minutes ago, dbergkvist said:

Given that there is no water, it will not be weeks before everyone is dead.

Reports from humanitarian staff indicate water is running low, according to Al Jazeera. I think someone can last three days without water.

Water a ‘matter of life and death’ for Gaza after Israeli siege, says UN | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

Gaza doctors warn of a humanitarian catastrophe after Israeli attacks | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

Edited by Craving Peaches
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1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

There is no way to even make a dent in Hamas without an assault on Gaza that would make everything up to now seem tame, not to mention likely complete reoccupation of Gaza. So the current options are basically to just cease any further action and let Hamas remain in power, or go far beyond what has been done up to now to try and uproot them. Both options are shit.

This is true. But what has always been obvious is that if the IDF ever had to go into Gaza, there would inevitably be civilian casualties. What matters, then, is that having decided to do that, whether the IDF go about things in a way that at least attempts to minimise those casualties. Right now, the signs on that front are not good. The choices that are being made and the messaging to the troops that will carry out the exercise suggest that is not a priority. And that’s not good enough for a country that professes to the values Israel professes to. Those values matter now more than ever. 

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Wagner has received an offer from Hamas to fight for them in Gaza. Wagner operatives are considering the offer on an individual basis (note: they are not considering the offer).

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3 hours ago, Ran said:

Peshmergas drove ISIS out of Mosul over 9 months of fighting. Israel is completely capable of turning Hamas into a non-entity in Gaza.

Hopefully this doesn't last 9 months.

But I wouldn't really compare the two situations.

I'm not saying that the Israeli army can't defeat Hamas, in as far one can adjudicate a defeat in that environment.  Its whether Hamas can be destroyed completely, a far bigger challenge.  Or whether it will be replaced by something worse.

I'm not talking about this year or next.  I'm talking about the next 15 years and beyond.  It goes back to what I said about Israeli containing Gaza for the last 15 years.  A few weeks ago, people would probably have said this was a quite successful.  I want to think about permanent solutions.

Simply put, the alliance of forces that regained Mosul would have been viewed much more favourably than the Israeli army.  But Islamic State is still around, even if far diminished.  Getting rid of these toxic forces is hard.  And the hatred in Gaza has had a long time to build up.

So yes, you can turn an enemy into a friend but it takes a lot of work.  Gaza and the West Bank takes even more.  Killing lots of fathers and mothers, brothers and sisters is not a sign that the trajectory is going to change..

And i'm not sure why people suggest this is a binary thing.  Do nothing v go all out.  People have also said that Israel could be a lot more ruthless and I buy that. Because it is clearly not a binary thing.  So yes, Israel shouldn't do nothing  but it doesn't have to go as far as it is.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

:rolleyes:

In fairness, Zorral's response was responding to you saying that the hatred of Jews among Arab and Muslims preceded the modern conflict by over a millennium.  I'm not saying that everything was rosy but as you say, there was a strong Jewish community in the Middle East into the 20th century (hardly possible if the kind of current rage existed then) and I believe that is was treated far better than the community in Europe.

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