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Nymor letter theories


KingAerys_II
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1 hour ago, KingAerys_II said:

The best warriors in Westeros are Dayne, so they are strong

? Quality of individual knights have a negligible effect on overall military strength, or did you not get what I was talking about?

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The Martells are believed to be able to raise fifty thousand soldiers, both by Dornishmen[28] and people from other provinces of the Seven Kingdoms.[29]

 

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7 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

? Quality of individual knights have a negligible effect on overall military strength, or did you not get what I was talking about?

 

-Dornishmen succeeded in sacking Highgarden, the Reach has the most massive amount of resources and manpower

-House Manwoody was founded because the founder killed a Gardener King when the Reach invaded Dorne, they defeated the Reach army

-The Rhoynar Queen Nymeria united 7 kingdoms, among them the Yronwood, Rhoynar population introduced a more advanced technology in Westeros

-Dorne rejected Daeron I and killed 50000-70000 men of Daeron army

-During the First Dornish War they killed knights and garrisons that entered in their territories and they were able to retaliate and take hostages

 

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9 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

-Dornishmen succeeded in sacking Highgarden, the Reach has the most massive amount of resources and manpower

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With the Kingdom of the Reach in chaos and the king too feeble to grasp what was occurring, much less stop it, the Storm King and the King of the Rock seized the opportunity and took large swathes of territory, whilst Dornish raids grew bolder and more frequent. One Dornish king besieged Oldtown, whilst another crossed the Mander and sacked Highgarden.

It's not just the Dornish that were ganging up on the Reach.

9 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

-House Manwoody was founded because the founder killed a Gardener King when the Reach invaded Dorne, they defeated the Reach army

By the same logic House Peake was more powerful than House Targaryen because they killed King Maekar.

9 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

Rhoynar population introduced a more advanced technology in Westeros

Look, no matter how advanced the Rhoynar are, it will not stop the dead if the rest of the continent had went down under already.

And when fighting the dead, the Dornish won't be able to use the same tactics that worked against the Targs to win.

9 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

-Dorne rejected Daeron I and killed 50000-70000 men of Daeron army

Which is about this. Gurellia ... has been useful. Throughout human history. Knowledge of the home turf and stuff. Even the Americanos can't withstand the Viet Cong's gurellia warfare.

I'd say the Dornish would have a lot of trouble if they decided to march out against the Young Dragon, when they were struggling on their home turf already.

9 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

During the First Dornish War they killed knights and garrisons that entered in their territories and they were able to retaliate and take hostages

Let them do something about Balerion and Vhagar then.

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Rhaenys reminding Aegon of his duty to make Westeros stronger is something related to Aegon change after the letter, he became a peace maker during the 20 years of dragon peace. 

Of course if he saw a United Westeros against the Others in his dragon dreams, he was missing the purpose of the Conquest in Dorne, where the entire population was dying because of plague and famine. 

Dorne has the same manpower of the Vale, but the Vale has not House Dayne, House Martell, House Yronwood, that are families known to have good warriors

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22 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

Rhaenys

Is just simply unlikely to survive Helholt. Any theory that hinges on her surviving Helholt becomes equally unlikely.

23 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

Dorne has the same manpower of the Vale, but the Vale has not House Dayne, House Martell, House Yronwood, that are families known to have good warriors

The Vale has House Arryn, House Royce, House Corbray, that are families known to produce good warriors.

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22 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

It's one of the theories elaborated by the Maesters that stated the Queen was still alive. If the author wanted her to survive for some reason, it is very likely she survived to give an explanation to the story behind the infamous letter

Have you tried jumping off a building to see for yourself how unlikely it is Rhaenys could survive such a fall? If not, you could always watch videos of parkour enthusiasists losing their footing. Spoiler alert: sometimes they do survive the fall. Just not very long after that.

I mean yes, perhaps putting that theory in the World Book would ultimately see it becoming the "secret truth"... it's just, since it's not confirmed, very unlikely.

21 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

C'mon House Royce is not comparable to House Dayne

Any reason in particular? Because House Dayne has a very big stick?

House Royce did win battles against House Arryn even though they lost the war.

28 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

I forgot to mention the Fowler known to be cunning, the Blackmonts, the Ullers. 

Oberyn humiliated the Mountain, Prince Lewyn was a member of the Kingsguard.

Gawen Corbray trained Prince Maegor, who would become the greatest warrior in his own time.

Qarl Corbray killed a KG and survived a battle where his side lost.

House Arryn defeated the ironborn in the years before Aegon's Conquest.

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15 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

Aegon II survived the Battle of the Rook Rest and the battle against Moondancer, Baela survived too, so it's very likely the Queen survived

Baela fell from a lower height (she wasn't over the top of a castle) and Aegon, like I previously stated, did not fall OFF his dragon.

Who knows, maybe the Targs practiced chaining themselves to dragon saddles only after the Conqueror heard of Rhaenys' death. "She doesn't keep herself chained and died, I won't let you lot die like she did."

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2 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

C'mon House Royce is not comparable to House Dayne, I forgot to mention the Fowler known to be cunning, the Blackmonts, the Ullers. 

Oberyn humiliated the Mountain, Prince Lewyn was a member of the Kingsguard. 

 

A knight's personal skills are worthless against an organized, disciplined army.

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MY THEORY 

It's very likely Rhaenys survived her fall, it is stated that Meraxes crushed the tower and the curtain wall of Hellholt in her mortal agony, she didn't crush immediately on the ground.
(Aegon II survived the Battle of the Rook Rest and the battle against Moondancer, he was burned, crippled, severely injured, but he was alive and Corlys Velaryon used poison to get rid of him).
Meria and Ullers tortured Rhaenys , Deria and Nymor hired assassins to rescue her, the four consecutive Ullers died because of Nymor assassins, it is stated that only two assassins survived to receive the ransom:the assassins of Lady Toland and Lord Fowler.
(Some members of House Martell turned against Prince Morion during the First Dornish War:"Although Morion had hoped to take Jaehaerys unaware, the king on the Iron Throne had spies in Morion's own court, and friends among some of the Dornish lords, and was therefore warned far in advance of the plans made by the Dornish prince", probably the same happened before) .

So they rescued her and she was shipped to Dragonstone to receive the gift of mercy by Aegon himself, Rhaenys convinced Aegon to stop the devastation that almost annihilated the entire dornish population, the purpose of the Conquest was a united and strong Westeros to have the necessary  manpower to face the Others in future,to Rhaenys it was more convenient to have  an Indipendent and populated Dorne rather than a desert land with plague and famine.
Then I don't think the Queen was glad her siblings were destroying an entire civilization because of her fall at Hellholt,  she is described as a kinderhearted person, so she was not the kind of person that enjoyed sufferings of civilians.
She wrote the letter herself and she was smuggled to Dragonstone in secret to hide her mutilations from Orys and Visenya, it was the only way to avoid a further escalation.

The theory must explain the following points that I used as clues to elaborate my reconstruction of the facts:

1.Aegon had good relations with Deria, he and Aenys celebrated a feast for peace in Sunspear just after Rhaena birth.

2. Aegon clenched the letter so hard his hand is bleeding (the letter reveals Meria, who is dead, tortured his sister who was alive).

3.Aegon flies to Dragonstone for some reason. (Rhaenys shipped to Dragonstone, she was in a brutal state, however she is able to explain her journey in Dorne to Aegon).

4.Her body was never recovered. (she is euthanized by Aegon and her body is burned as tradition)

5.The ransom strategy was effective against the Ullers. It has no sense that an entire Tyrell army was no able to catch them and some people hired by the Iron Throne were able to murder 4 consecutive Lord of Hellholt in the desert. It was effective against the Ullers that were the lords that could have Rhaenys alive.

Edited by KingAerys_II
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On 11/3/2023 at 3:02 AM, Lord Varys said:

Actually, I think that letter thing is just a pretty bad plot device George came up to 'explain' why Aegon the Conqueror (and his successors) didn't crush Dorne after the death of Rhaenys and Meraxes.

It explains nothing and it is a pretty bad mystery as even the most informed reader of the ASoIaF texts cannot come up with an even remotely plausible or convincing idea about the contents for that letter. Any suggestions I have read or come up with myself so far are pretty bad and wouldn't make much sense in a realistic scenario. (And even less so the scenario that Aegon could force through a peace agreement without explanation! Especially after what happened to Orys Baratheon's hand and Queen Rhaenys.)

In fact, the best 'explanation' is actually the silly idea the letter successfully bewitched Aegon.

Personal issues aside, Aegon's resources were far from spent as there is no indication any of his campaigns throughout the Dornish War even involved men from the West, the Riverlands, the Vale, or the North. Thus too much loss of life or resources on his side couldn't have possibly convinced him that the war wasn't worth the effort. 

And if we consider personal issues then the death of Rhaenys and the loss of Meraxes as well as the mutilation of Orys alone are slights he could hardly let stand without losing face with his lords. This is hardly something he could or would let go. We can almost say that a Red Wedding stands between the Targaryens and the Martells in 14 AC, and thus there is little chance for a peace without submission. Aegon does have all the cards, and nothing the Martells can do or say should be able to change that.

Which is why the letter is a pretty bad plot device. A good one would allow us to come up with a number of convincing theories to fill the blanks. But here there just are no convincing theories.

Agreed. It's completely ilogical that Dorne remained an independent Kingdom for more than 200 years, specially when the Targs had dragons.

It doesn't make any kind of sense

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On 11/16/2023 at 6:26 PM, Ingelheim said:

Agreed. It's completely ilogical that Dorne remained an independent Kingdom for more than 200 years, specially when the Targs had dragons.

It doesn't make any kind of sense

It's very hard to believe GRRM used a bad plot device to explain why Dorne kept indipendence, he criticized LOTR because of plot holes, we are speaking of the content of a letter, not magical stuff, so he needs to explain in the next books. 

 

On 11/13/2023 at 3:42 PM, KingAerys_II said:

MY THEORY 

It's very likely Rhaenys survived her fall, it is stated that Meraxes crushed the tower and the curtain wall of Hellholt in her mortal agony, she didn't crush immediately on the ground.
(Aegon II survived the Battle of the Rook Rest and the battle against Moondancer, he was burned, crippled, severely injured, but he was alive and Corlys Velaryon used poison to get rid of him).
Meria and Ullers tortured Rhaenys , Deria and Nymor hired assassins to rescue her, the four consecutive Ullers died because of Nymor assassins, it is stated that only two assassins survived to receive the ransom:the assassins of Lady Toland and Lord Fowler.
(Some members of House Martell turned against Prince Morion during the First Dornish War:"Although Morion had hoped to take Jaehaerys unaware, the king on the Iron Throne had spies in Morion's own court, and friends among some of the Dornish lords, and was therefore warned far in advance of the plans made by the Dornish prince", probably the same happened before) .

So they rescued her and she was shipped to Dragonstone to receive the gift of mercy by Aegon himself, Rhaenys convinced Aegon to stop the devastation that almost annihilated the entire dornish population, the purpose of the Conquest was a united and strong Westeros to have the necessary  manpower to face the Others in future,to Rhaenys it was more convenient to have  an Indipendent and populated Dorne rather than a desert land with plague and famine.
Then I don't think the Queen was glad her siblings were destroying an entire civilization because of her fall at Hellholt,  she is described as a kinderhearted person, so she was not the kind of person that enjoyed sufferings of civilians.
She wrote the letter herself and she was smuggled to Dragonstone in secret to hide her mutilations from Orys and Visenya, it was the only way to avoid a further escalation.

The theory must explain the following points that I used as clues to elaborate my reconstruction of the facts:

1.Aegon had good relations with Deria, he and Aenys celebrated a feast for peace in Sunspear just after Rhaena birth.

2. Aegon clenched the letter so hard his hand is bleeding (the letter reveals Meria, who is dead, tortured his sister who was alive).

3.Aegon flies to Dragonstone for some reason. (Rhaenys shipped to Dragonstone, she was in a brutal state, however she is able to explain her journey in Dorne to Aegon).

4.Her body was never recovered. (she is euthanized by Aegon and her body is burned as tradition)

5.The ransom strategy was effective against the Ullers. It has no sense that an entire Tyrell army was no able to catch them and some people hired by the Iron Throne were able to murder 4 consecutive Lord of Hellholt in the desert. It was effective against the Ullers that were the lords that could have Rhaenys alive.

It's the only theory that explains everything, I don't pretend it's 100 percent correct, but it's based on facts that happened in the book

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7 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

It's very hard to believe GRRM used a bad plot device to explain why Dorne kept indipendence, he criticized LOTR because of plot holes, we are speaking of the content of a letter, not magical stuff, so he needs to explain in the next books. 

 

It's the only theory that explains everything, I don't pretend it's 100 percent correct, but it's based on facts that happened in the book

I believe Martin intends to leave that question unanswered. It's one of those open theories that don't actually have a real answer, it's just a plot device.

But if it has a real answer, IMO, the only sensible possibility for Nymor's letter is that the Dornishmen found out a way to wipe out the dragons for good, probably some magic secret from before the Doom (or maybe something actually related to the causes of the Doom). Some dark blood magic or poison or whatever.

It's the only threat that would have stopped Aegon, the possibility of losing all the dragons and the eggs. Nymor offered him a deal, my kingdom and the freedom of my people in exchange for peace. You can have your Seven Kingdoms controlled by your dragons, but leave Dorne alone. Or we all die.

Some sort of Mutual Assured Destruction, like with nukes.

Maybe it's related to how the dragons eventually died out during Aegon III's reign. Maybe it's related to the Citadel and the Dornishmen somehow knew before them, they knew how to put an end to the dragons but they never did it. And it happened anyway 120 years later.

I've always found strange that Aegon burned the letter and then flew to Dragonstone straight away. That's the key. There was some knowledge in Dragonstone, some dragonlore written down in an ancient Valyrian book, and Aegon needed to verify if it was true. And it was.

Edited by Ingelheim
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Probably the author is going to explain the content of the letter in TWOW, I already discussed that knowledge about the dragons has no sense, Dorne was a blasting ruin, the Martells made the letter plot after Meria dies, Meria never used devices against dragons, Morion Martell used scorpion bolts against Caraxes, Vhagar, Vermithor, it didn't work, he died. 

Threats have no sense, Aegon and Aenys celebrating a feast with people that threatened them, it's ridicolous. 

The theory I posted is the result of 12 years of fanfic, anyway. 

On 11/13/2023 at 3:42 PM, KingAerys_II said:

MY THEORY 

It's very likely Rhaenys survived her fall, it is stated that Meraxes crushed the tower and the curtain wall of Hellholt in her mortal agony, she didn't crush immediately on the ground.
(Aegon II survived the Battle of the Rook Rest and the battle against Moondancer, he was burned, crippled, severely injured, but he was alive and Corlys Velaryon used poison to get rid of him).
Meria and Ullers tortured Rhaenys , Deria and Nymor hired assassins to rescue her, the four consecutive Ullers died because of Nymor assassins, it is stated that only two assassins survived to receive the ransom:the assassins of Lady Toland and Lord Fowler.
(Some members of House Martell turned against Prince Morion during the First Dornish War:"Although Morion had hoped to take Jaehaerys unaware, the king on the Iron Throne had spies in Morion's own court, and friends among some of the Dornish lords, and was therefore warned far in advance of the plans made by the Dornish prince", probably the same happened before) .

So they rescued her and she was shipped to Dragonstone to receive the gift of mercy by Aegon himself, Rhaenys convinced Aegon to stop the devastation that almost annihilated the entire dornish population, the purpose of the Conquest was a united and strong Westeros to have the necessary  manpower to face the Others in future,to Rhaenys it was more convenient to have  an Indipendent and populated Dorne rather than a desert land with plague and famine.
Then I don't think the Queen was glad her siblings were destroying an entire civilization because of her fall at Hellholt,  she is described as a kinderhearted person, so she was not the kind of person that enjoyed sufferings of civilians.
She wrote the letter herself and she was smuggled to Dragonstone in secret to hide her mutilations from Orys and Visenya, it was the only way to avoid a further escalation.

The theory must explain the following points that I used as clues to elaborate my reconstruction of the facts:

1.Aegon had good relations with Deria, he and Aenys celebrated a feast for peace in Sunspear just after Rhaena birth.

2. Aegon clenched the letter so hard his hand is bleeding (the letter reveals Meria, who is dead, tortured his sister who was alive).

3.Aegon flies to Dragonstone for some reason. (Rhaenys shipped to Dragonstone, she was in a brutal state, however she is able to explain her journey in Dorne to Aegon).

4.Her body was never recovered. (she is euthanized by Aegon and her body is burned as tradition)

5.The ransom strategy was effective against the Ullers. It has no sense that an entire Tyrell army was no able to catch them and some people hired by the Iron Throne were able to murder 4 consecutive Lord of Hellholt in the desert. It was effective against the Ullers that were the lords that could have Rhaenys alive.

 

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15 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

Threats have no sense, Aegon and Aenys celebrating a feast with people that threatened them, it's ridicolous.

Prime Minister Rabin celebrated a peace accord with the people that threatened Israel, it's just politics. This point, which I think I have mentioned twice, is simply you don't understanding politics.

19 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

Morion Martell used scorpion bolts against Caraxes, Vhagar, Vermithor, it didn't work, he died. 

Jaehaerys was a skilled enough dragonlord to avoid getting hit, and a naval battle was different from a siege anyway. Heavy weaponry would be much more difficult to aim on medieval boats.

In the same vein, as we do not know the circumstances of Rhaenys' crash at Helholt, we have no reliable way to assess her chances of survival.

3 hours ago, Ingelheim said:

the Dornishmen found out a way to wipe out the dragons for good, probably some magic secret from before the Doom (or maybe something actually related to the causes of the Doom). Some dark blood magic or poison or whatever.

Wow, this is even further than I had went.

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