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US Politics: Shutdown Showdown


Mr. Chatywin et al.
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8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Correct there is no clear alternative. This why Biden should put country before his own ego and pass the baton, stand down while theres still enough time for a replacement candidate to establish her/him self.

What grates me quite a bit is that its clear the Democrats are going to run the guy that they know a significant amount of voters are rejecting in the polls. They are going to give the country a choice of- "Look our guy is less shitty."

Thats not acceptable. Biden needs to pass the torch he is a vulnerable candidate, I think he knows hes vulnerable but too attached to the office to make way for a more fit person. That is selfish on his part and the "our guy is less shitty than thier guy" strategy leaves millions feeling the party takes thier vote for granted. A good way to lose votes.

It sure looks like the DNC is willing to gamble with these consequences. This is the time to hammer into the Presidents head that he needs to give up a 2nd term for the good of the country. Make way for a candidate that motivates voters to turn out and a candidate that actually has voters saying "I want this person as my next President."

Instead of "heres our guy, hes the least worst option."

The thing is the upper echelon DNC types know this is exactly what they are offering us and I just dont see it as a viable get out the vote strategy. It looks like a catastrophe in waiting, this is how we end up with Trump again.

Stand down Mr Biden while theres still time to get a replacement that will motivate turnout.

Any candidate worth thier salt should be up double digits over the criminal Trump. The fact that you cannot even outpoll this disgrace is a call to action to move on from a Biden reelection campaign.

We need a better candidate, this is unacceptable.

So...Unless Biden doesn't run you're not going to vote for Biden to show him that people won't vote for Biden because of your worry that there will be a catastrophe if he does run?

And...this makes sense to you? That because you're worried about a catastrophic result you are willing to help usher in a catastrophic result?

This is the sort of thing I am talking about when I say there are a lot of people who don't want Trump but don't care so much. To them it isn't an existential threat. They aren't the ones that will get gunned down or locked up or have rights they care about taken away. For them it's more important to protest ineffectually and be able to say how right they were.

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8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Correct there is no clear alternative. This why Biden should put country before his own ego and pass the baton, stand down while theres still enough time for a replacement candidate to establish her/him self.

Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t it a bit late to start the process of looking for a candidate at this point? 

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

What grates me quite a bit is that its clear the Democrats are going to run the guy that they know a significant amount of voters are rejecting in the polls. They are going to give the country a choice of- "Look our guy is less shitty."

From what I’ve heard and read from people who know what they’re talking about, these polls one year out don’t really mean much. 

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Thats not acceptable. Biden needs to pass the torch he is a vulnerable candidate, I think he knows hes vulnerable but too attached to the office to make way for a more fit person. That is selfish on his part and the "our guy is less shitty than thier guy" strategy leaves millions feeling the party takes thier vote for granted. A good way to lose votes.

I’ll go back to, isn’t it a bit late to start looking for this mythical better candidate? Also, is it fair to say Biden is just “less shitty than their guy”? It seems to me he’s managed to get a lot of things done, despite how dysfunctional Congress is, especially the House.

 

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

It sure looks like the DNC is willing to gamble with these consequences. This is the time to hammer into the Presidents head that he needs to give up a 2nd term for the good of the country. Make way for a candidate that motivates voters to turn out and a candidate that actually has voters saying "I want this person as my next President."

Who would you like to see running? There must be someone for you to be this invested in having another candidate w/ the election being less than one year away? Or at least a few names you’d like to see out there?

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Instead of "heres our guy, hes the least worst option."

The thing is the upper echelon DNC types know this is exactly what they are offering us and I just dont see it as a viable get out the vote strategy. It looks like a catastrophe in waiting, this is how we end up with Trump again.

And let’s remember a 2nd Trump presidency will be infinitely and unimaginably worse, he’s said as much himself, many times already. And if that’s not enough to get everyone to vote for the actual candidate on the ballot, I don’t know what will. 

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Stand down Mr Biden while theres still time to get a replacement that will motivate turnout.

I may be wrong, but I don’t see how this could work. :dunno:

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I was talking about people who don’t want to live in a fascist state, regardless of whether they’re conservatives or liberals or whatever. Like the guy I mentioned here a couple of weeks back. Older man, late 60s-early 70s, voted for Trump twice, identifies as very conservative, doesn’t like the dems and specifically doesn’t like Biden on top of thinking he’s too old to run. When the person conducting the focus group asked him who he’d vote for if the next election is a Biden/Trump rematch, he said he’d vote for Biden even if he were dead. I think there are more people like this man out there…

Per reports about 35% of the population is okay with authoritarianism directly. Probably another 30% doesn't really care as long as it doesn't affect them. 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Irt 25% of people being fine with authoritarianism, that’s definitely a lot but still not enough?

In the US that's absolutely enough to bring it in, thanks to indifference, partisanship and the electoral system.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

Is this really accurate? I mean, you do have democrats being elected and re-elected governors in red states, and democrats winning seats in state legislatures, in some cases even historically flipping state houses or senates or even both. Isn’t that a positive sign? 

It's a positive sign for the states but it isn't enough. States by themselves have very limited power over things and most are pretty dependent on the federal government. States that don't go along with policies can very easily get punished until they do.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Are you saying it’s undoable? Genuine question…

At any rate I suppose I should be the one wishing you good luck! 

So in order to do what you're suggesting democrats or allies would need to do the following:

- presidency, which has about a 4% republican lean right now

- majority in the house, which has about a 5% lean republican

- 60 out of 100 seats in the senate, which at that level has about a 20% or greater lean republican

That is largely impossible to do outside of a great recession or depression event. Anything less than that makes that progress impossible as well. And that assumes everyone is in alignment there too - which is not usually accurate as many dems are in red leaning areas and must vote more conservatively.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

It's not as hopeless as that, according to professor Staffan Ingemar Lindberg from the  University of Gothenburg. He acknowledges that the world is becoming increasingly authoritarian, but says there is hope. And if several poorer and less powerful countries were able to bounce back from the brink, I don’t see why America can’t. 

Here's the link if folks are interested.

https://www.gu.se/en/news/the-world-is-becoming-increasingly-authoritarian-but-there-is-hope

I would like to see that data as I'm not sure it tracks. In particular Slovenia is going more authoritarian already, putting in several pro-russian officials.

In any case it is possible to do, but it is very rare and very fragile. And, probably more importantly, money in the US is significantly more potent than the Maldives.

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Biden is going to be the Dem candidate. He is the current POTUS and him running, age not withstanding, isn't going to change. 

Remember, love him, hate him, think he might be kinda your guy, but you'd rather have the hunky guy working out at the gym around the corner...it doesn't matter. You're not voting for Biden. You're voting for the ability to be able to vote again in 2028 and beyond (actually 2026, because elections will likely stop by then). 

The bonus is, regardless of age, there's been some good movement on some issues under Biden, despite not having control of Congress. But now, next year, we're voting for him and the Democrats to ensure we get to keep voting. 

Re-elect the man first and foremost. Let the succession talk shake out after January 20th, 2025.

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I'll also chime in to note that Biden is certainly old enough to remember the 1968 election. LBJ was actually eligible to run for another term, decided not to, and the Democratic party split into several major factions immediately. The result was a chaotic Democratic convention and Nixon beat Humphries in an election that was actually close in the popular vote but was an electoral blowout.

The conventional wisdom is that LBJ was so unpopular from the Vietnam war that he would've gotten blown out in the election and so he decided not to run to spare himself the embarrassment and to hopefully improve Democrats' chances that year. However, the limited polling at the time suggests that LBJ actually was in a good position to win and there's a variety of theories as to why he ended up not running.

I think Biden thinks he can win and he doesn't want to be another LBJ.

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When faced with a deplorable, multiple time indicted, multiple felony charged opponent like Trump-

Theres no damn way we should be running the guy that generates these headlines

2 days ago  Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the ...
 
I refuse to believe that is the best the party can offer, i do not believe people will turn out robustly next November, at least robustly enough to overcome the antipathy Biden fosters. 
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11 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

When faced with a deplorable, multiple time indicted, multiple felony charged opponent like Trump-

Theres no damn way we should be running the guy that generates these headlines:

 
I refuse to believe that is the best the party can offer, i do not believe people will turn out robustly next November, at least robustly enough to overcome the antipathy Biden fosters. 

And therefore because you are worried that people won't turn out in November you're going to not vote for him in November. 

Again - this makes sense to you...how? 

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6 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

When faced with a deplorable, multiple time indicted, multiple felony charged opponent like Trump-

Theres no damn way we should be running the guy that generates these headlines

Ok, but you acknowledge that you personally don't get to decide who does and does not run, right?  I mean, I wanted a better Democrat in 2020 but Biden got the most votes in the primary, so that's that.  I made the big boy decision that Biden is vastly preferable to Trump and did phonebanking for Biden in 2020. 

Biden will certainly win the primary again, and thus I will probably do phonebanking or something similar again next year (even though I hate it). Because if we ever want to have our votes mean anything in the future, we need to elect the guy who will uphold, rather than destroy democracy. 

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12 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I refuse to believe that is the best the party can offer, i do not believe people will turn out robustly next November, at least robustly enough to overcome the antipathy Biden fosters. 

Obama was a uniquely charismatic candidate, and even he had low approval ratings around this time. Biden is, to quote Obama "likeable enough," but not enough to make people forget their unhappiness with the state of the country and the world.

Also mentioned in that podcast you haven't listened to is that most democratic world leaders have worse ratings than Biden has. People are unhappy about a lot of things, and they voice that unhappiness in the polls.

That's good information to have, and campaign officials should take the info seriously as ground to gain before the election. But it's not the same as Biden being a uniquely terrible candidate. Name any politician, and they will have issues regarding appeal, trust, and likeability. Name any politician in office, and they will have issues of malaise to contend with.

Things are too close for my comfort, I definitely agree there. I'm just not convinced like you are that there's any better option.

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5 hours ago, Fez said:

I think that, and pretty much only that, would lead to a 2028 Republican primary where MAGA starts getting ditched.

I don't think we're disagreeing. My point was in a rational world the MAGA movement should have pivoted. Instead they're doubling down and I can't see a way for the right to break from this anytime soon which pretty much means fascism in the US is here for the foreseeable future. 

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Wouldn’t it take more than a few idiots and wouldn’t it depend on this happening in specific states? I’m asking b/c I honestly don’t know. Like, wouldn’t it require this group of MAGAs + idiots managing to win a few states w/ lots of electors?

Well for starters, the few idiots are not that small in number and largely don't pay attention or care to learn. It's Thanksgiving week, the perfect time to remind yourselves most members of the average family know jack shit about politics despite how much they think they do. 

And again, with a fascist party that's counting on apathy and stupidity, it only takes one cycle for shit to hit the fan. 

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3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

When faced with a deplorable, multiple time indicted, multiple felony charged opponent like Trump-

Theres no damn way we should be running the guy that generates these headlines

2 days ago  Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the ...
 
I refuse to believe that is the best the party can offer, i do not believe people will turn out robustly next November, at least robustly enough to overcome the antipathy Biden fosters. 

Ya, well. Recall back in the day, when it was LBJ and Vietnam the yoot were so against, that LBJ stood down, and the more acceptable to them candidate, RFK, got assassinated, so then it was Humphrey and McGovern, and Nixon won.

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7 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

If Trump wins in 2024, it probably would take a war or revolution to fight against the changes he would impose. But yes, at this point, there is still a chance to correct. It's a long slog and it's not fun (and actually implementing good liberal or progressive policies is a completely different matter), but there have been heartening signs. We should not allow ourselves to be defeated by our own sense of defeatism.

My take is that if Trump wins the 2024 election, he gets impeached inside of a year and we will witness most of his political appointees being convicted for criminal and other offences. As demonstrated in the first term, these people WILL do criminally stupid things - it's almost like they cannot help themselves. Likewise, even if Trump remains in office, the MAGA crowd and Republicans by extension lose big time at the national and state level election wise, again because of arrogance and lack of self-restraint.

That said, the whole situation will not be pretty - in fact, I expect it would be downright chaotic.

 

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Just now, ThinkerX said:

My take is that if Trump wins the 2024 election, he gets impeached inside of a year and we will witness most of his political appointees being convicted for criminal and other offences. As demonstrated in the first term, these people WILL do criminally stupid things - it's almost like they cannot help themselves. Likewise, even if Trump remains in office, the MAGA crowd and Republicans by extension lose big time at the national and state level election wise, again because of arrogance and lack of self-restraint.

That said, the whole situation will not be pretty - in fact, I expect it would be downright chaotic.

 

Impeached possibly, but not convicted.

Senate map isn't great for Democrats next year. WV is a guaranteed pick up for the Republicans, Romney is retiring. Those two alone are two votes to convict in the Senate gone, and we are not talking about the re-election prospects of other Senators.

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Secession, martial law and Emergency Acts are far more likely than impeachment for the traitor in chief if he's back in D.C.  Total anarchy + a great deal of violence, even more than now,  is most likely of all.

Edited by Zorral
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53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Is that even possible w/ Republicans holding the House?

I expect Republicans to lose the House in a mudslide regardless of who wins the presidency.

I also expect the democrats to retain their majority in the senate, not so much through their own efforts but because some of the republican senators will do and say things so horrible that they will lose seemingly secure seats. Thus far, the republican politicians appear completely clueless about just how unpopular some of their pet causes are - witness Ohio.

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36 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Secession, martial law and Emergency Acts are far more likely than impeachment for the traitor in chief if he's back in D.C.  Total anarchy + a great deal of violence, even more than now, is most likely of all.

Challenged (successfully) in court every step of the way - plus you are omitting the guaranteed monumental criminal nature and utter incompetence of almost all of Trump's pics for high office. Likewise, Trumps schemes require financing - which is unlikely to be coming from a democratic congress. 

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It doesn't take anybody in office to do secession and violence as we see every day.  It doesn't even take competence.

But make no mistake, there are some very competent people there in the shadows of traitor in chief, like Roger Stone, who won't allow the same unfocused irrationality of the first time around. They've learned.

Being smarter than the other guy often means failure for the smarter fellow because he thinks thinks makes him immune from insanity and the successful drive to power by the not smarter guy.  We have been seeing us doing this for decades now with Them.  We keep thinking knowing more, being smarter, being efficient, being honest, making fun of Them while washing behind our ears like the good smart people we are, will take care of Them.  It's been decades and They've only gotten more and more powerful.

When all of us are in prison or shot there ain't gonna be any impeachment.  We've tried that twice already and it didn't work.

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