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US Politics: Shutdown Showdown


Mr. Chatywin et al.
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28 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

I expect Republicans to lose the House in a mudslide regardless of who wins the presidency.

 

Fingers crossed your prediction is correct! 

Still, that wouldn't happen within the first year of his presidency b/c in that time frame the house would still be the same as it is today, right? Or am I missing something?

eta: I am of course missing the election for rep in 24. Duh. :dunce:

Edited by kissdbyfire
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9 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

If Trump wins in 2024, it probably would take a war or revolution to fight against the changes he would impose. 

Almost certainly what certain other people are saying, with a completely straight face, if Biden wins in 2024. Probably with greater intention of actually starting such war or revolution than anti-Trumpers.

Be bleakly interesting to get some objective analysis of what makes a civil war or revolution in the USA more likely this side of 2030, Biden winning in 2024 or Trump?

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29 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Almost certainly what certain other people are saying, with a completely straight face, if Biden wins in 2024. Probably with greater intention of actually starting such war or revolution than anti-Trumpers.

The rhetoric is always somewhat mirrored, but the behavior isn't, as you intimate. Still, I am of the belief that the MAGA movement can lose heart if they keep losing. Plenty of them will keep the delusions alive like a new Lost Cause Myth, but if it's an actual lost cause, then they will at least go grudgingly back to a "moderate" Republican candidate whose nihilism is mostly performative.

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2 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

My take is that if Trump wins the 2024 election, he gets impeached inside of a year and we will witness most of his political appointees being convicted for criminal and other offences.

Have you paid any attention at all to what he says he wants to do? There won't be any impeachment because there likely won't be a functioning Congress or Court because he's going to simply ignore all of that...

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Would there be enough honourable Republican senators at any point in Trump's presidency that would vote with, one assumes but can't guarantee, all Democratic senators to convict? It seems unlikely. I would barely expect such a strong Trump opponent as Mitt Romney to vote to convict, though he'd going / gone isn't he? Is there any R left in the senate who could be seen as anti-Trump?

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14 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

The rhetoric is always somewhat mirrored, but the behavior isn't, as you intimate. Still, I am of the belief that the MAGA movement can lose heart if they keep losing. Plenty of them will keep the delusions alive like a new Lost Cause Myth, but if it's an actual lost cause, then they will at least go grudgingly back to a "moderate" Republican candidate whose nihilism is mostly performative.

For the time being Trumpism has outgrown Trump. The movement just hasn't found their next Dear Leader. It's very possible Trump wins the nomination and loses the general, but his base aren't going to quit what he's created and said base will continue to control Republican politics for the foreseeable future. 

9 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Would there be enough honourable Republican senators at any point in Trump's presidency that would vote with, one assumes but can't guarantee, all Democratic senators to convict? It seems unlikely. I would barely expect such a strong Trump opponent as Mitt Romney to vote to convict, though he'd going / gone isn't he? Is there any R left in the senate who could be seen as anti-Trump?

No. At this point we have to accept there's almost no scenario in which Republicans in the House and Senate would turn on him. 

If I was a cartoonish billionaire I'd make sure to send every elected Republican a copy of Frankenstein everyday.

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18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

For the time being Trumpism has outgrown Trump. The movement just hasn't found their next Dear Leader. It's very possible Trump wins the nomination and loses the general, but his base aren't going to quit what he's created and said base will continue to control Republican politics for the foreseeable future. 

Looking from the outside, this rings very true. Sadly. 

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

No. At this point we have to accept there's almost no scenario in which Republicans in the House and Senate would turn on him. 

If I was a cartoonish billionaire I'd make sure to send every elected Republican a copy of Frankenstein everyday.

It even feels at times reading the news that they're even more staunchly in his camp now than in 2020. So weird. I think some see it as a way to please their own base, but I also believe some are actually really too afraid to do anything else. It's no excuse, of course, but a good illustration of how dysfunctional politics is atm. 

Confession: I've been resisting the urge to buy Romney's book... But I'm just so curious I'm not sure I will succeed at resisting it much longer. Maybe a reread of Frankenstein will help! 

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42 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

For the time being Trumpism has outgrown Trump. The movement just hasn't found their next Dear Leader. It's very possible Trump wins the nomination and loses the general, but his base aren't going to quit what he's created and said base will continue to control Republican politics for the foreseeable future. 

I agree to some extent, but if they lose even without Trump, it's a clear sign they are at a dead end. And maybe it takes a few elections after that for them to finally admit it, but that's something.

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Wisconsin supreme court appears poised to strike down legislative maps and end Republican dominance
Decision from four liberal justices in lawsuit could eliminate some of the most gerrymandered districts in the United States

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/21/wisconsin-supreme-court-redistricting-lawsuit

Quote

The Wisconsin supreme court appeared poised to strike down the current maps for the state legislature after three hours of oral argument on Tuesday, a decision that could end more than a decade of Republican dominance and eliminate some of the most gerrymandered districts in the United States.

The four liberal justices on the court all seemed ready to embrace an argument from challengers in the case, Clarke v Wisconsin elections commission, that the maps violate the state constitution because they include more than 70 districts. It was unclear, however, how the justices would handle the redrawing of a map and whether it would immediately order elections for the entire legislature next year in new districts. Wisconsin voters elect 99 assembly members every two years, but only about half of the 33-member state senate would normally be up for election next year.

 

 

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11 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I forgot to add that link, cheers! 

Went back and read the original democracy report that was part of it, especially on the 8 'good news' bits. And it's kind of a mixed bag, honestly. Most of these cases were basically reversions after one party took power and then got kicked out, often because of rampant corruption. 

But that's not really what the US faces right now. 

Quote

Five elements were key in the 8 cases:

• Large-scale popular mobilization against incumbent.

• Judiciary reversing executive take-over.

• Unified opposition coalescing with civil society

• Critical elections and key events bringing alternation in power.

• International democracy support and protection.

These were the key factors in those 8 country's reversals. Of these, only one (critical elections) might apply to the US. 

Large scale popular mobilization against incumbent? Not so far in the US. Maybe that'll change with Trump part 2, but the end result of the 2020 election was not massive protest and turnout against him. It was still almost even.

Judiciary reversing executive takeover? Nope. The judiciary in the US has largely aided and abetted the takeover and continues to do so. They could have been even more extreme, I suppose, but they have mostly stayed out of the way and continued to gut various voting acts and laws against gerrymandering.

Unified opposition? Yeah, we're seeing that unification in this thread real clearly. 

International democracy support? Good luck putting pressure on the US, Europe. We saw how well that went the last time.

Ultimately my viewpoint is that one of the established parties has decided that autocracy is fine. In those 8 cases the change was about one person rising to power but the majority of parties coming together to go back from that, including legislative groups that were part of that person's party. That isn't going to be the case in the US, where most Republicans will never stand up to Trump -and those who have tried have been very much dumped by the voters. 

And sure, it's certainly possible to come back. It just isn't very likely. If there is a comeback it needs to be done quickly and methodically, with lessons learned and safeguards put into place. The US had their chance to do that and they didn't. 

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4 hours ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Have you paid any attention at all to what he says he wants to do? There won't be any impeachment because there likely won't be a functioning Congress or Court because he's going to simply ignore all of that...

What Trump *wants* to do and what Trump *can* do are two different things. Congress controls the purse. Unlawful edicts WILL get challenged again and again.  And again, people here are underrating the sheer criminal idiocy and utter incompetence of almost all of his appointees - they will repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot. And Trump's own vacillating and treacherous nature towards his own people will only make this worse - NO Trump official is safe from their own boss. That said, Team Trump will cause havoc before they fall - but given their nature, fall they will.

[quote]

For the time being Trumpism has outgrown Trump. The movement just hasn't found their next Dear Leader. It's very possible Trump wins the nomination and loses the general, but his base aren't going to quit what he's created and said base will continue to control Republican politics for the foreseeable future. [/quote]

'Trumpism' is a dangerously unstable alliance made up of factions that would normally be at each other's throats (theocrats, plutocrats/business crowd, nutjob set). Trump eats one hamburger too many - possible - then the movement fragments and there is no heir apparent. The other issue afflicting conservatives is that the vast majority are older white people who are dropping dead like flies. Conservatism holds *some* appeal towards the latin populace, but little for today's youth. 

 

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