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Israel Hamas War XI -- Foggier and Foggier


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1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Going by those values, at least ~8% of the total population of Gaza would be killed to wipe out Hamas.

So maybe they shouldn't use them as human shields if they actually care about them. 

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Just now, Altherion said:

This is somewhat pessimistic. If you look at the map, what the Israelis have done is told all the civilians to go south and have cut off Gaza City from the south of Gaza. Since most of the civilians are indeed gone and the fighting is mostly in the north, the number of civilian casualties should be much smaller than in the first few weeks of the war (and indeed you can see this in the numbers just before the truce).

The numbers have increased to almost 15000. In addition to that, Israel has said that they are going to go South now after dealing with Gaza city, and there are only so many places for people to actually go. Casualties did drop a bit since Israel stopped widescale bombing and went to using infantry and tanks, but that is almost certain to ramp back up. 

Plus Hamas is totally fine using civilians to shield their operations, and now there are a whole lot more shields to use. They're probably spending the 6 days they have resettling in areas specifically packed with people. 

Mostly, I think it's pretty ludicrous to think that Hamas will suddenly be easier to spot now that more civilians are in a more dense area, and I think it's ludicrous to think that Israel is going to stop doing what they've been doing without significant threat to their safety. As I said earlier the main outcome of Israel bombing more is the US will put into power a president that cares less about Palestinian lives and supports Israel more openly. 

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9 minutes ago, Altherion said:

This is somewhat pessimistic.

It's wildly optimistic. The serious deaths among civilians, from disease for example, have not yet really begun.

Whoever you blame for this whole debacle, it is unarguable that the scale of suffering among Gazan civilians is already enormous and only stands to grow much, much worse.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

So maybe they shouldn't use them as human shields if they actually care about them. 

How loose do you want to get with the term human shield though? Obviously if I'm physically holding someone right in front of me to prevent myself getting shot, that is a human shield. But if the whole neighbourhood we are in gets blown up to take out my supposed munitions factory, does everyone in neighbouring blocks still count, even those at the other end of the street? I don't think you can say that all the people who have died, died because they were human shields. By the 8th of November, 45% of housing in Gaza was reported destroyed or damaged (https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/11/gaza-destroying-civilian-housing-and-infrastructure-international-crime). Hamas cannot possibly be using all of that, surely?

Also... Israel could just not bomb so much? 

Edit: I would like to emphasise that I am not denying Hamas uses human shields. What I do want to question is the idea that everyone in Gaza that has died or will die, died because they were a human shield.

Edited by Craving Peaches
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3 hours ago, mormont said:

It's wildly optimistic. The serious deaths among civilians, from disease for example, have not yet really begun.

This is a fair point, but on the other hand, is there evidence that disease or any of the other typical non-combat causes of civilian deaths are about to take hold in Gaza? There is a fairly heavy UN presence there and trucks of aid just a few kilometers away.

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17 minutes ago, Altherion said:

This is a fair point, but on the other hand, is there evidence that disease or any of the other typical non-combat causes of civilian deaths are about to take hold in Gaza? There is a fairly heavy UN presence there and trucks of aid just a few kilometers away.

Gaza is very densely populated, all key sanitation services have shut down, they have roughly about 5% of their water needs, they have a food shortage, and shortage of anti-biotics and other medicines...what sort of evidence are you looking for? 

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40 minutes ago, Makk said:

Gaza is very densely populated, all key sanitation services have shut down, they have roughly about 5% of their water needs, they have a food shortage, and shortage of anti-biotics and other medicines...what sort of evidence are you looking for? 

It's very hard to tell what is going in with infrastructure in a war zone. Are people actually dying of thirst or disease?

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So it looks like the IDF is finished at Al-Shifa.  They blew up the tunnels they found and left right before the cease fire.  Don't think there is a point in doing this if they were planning on conducting further searches.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/before-truce-idf-destroys-hamas-tunnel-under-shifa-hospital-completes-new-deployment/

I'm not sure how reliable this website is in general, but the story links to an official post from the Hebrew language Twitter page of the IDF that is consistent with the story.  It's interesting the post about blowing up the tunnels under Al-Shifa wasn't also posted on the English language version of the IDF's Twitter page.

What they found: one largely empty room with an AC unit and a few cots, a couple toilets, a sink, and some wiring.  Sorry, this doesn't come close to proving the existence of an HQ.  All these things are commonly found throughout the hundreds of miles of tunnels.

This is additional proof that Israeli intelligence in Gaza is complete shit.  They produce a 3D rendered animation of an extensive multi-level underground tunnel structure HQ based on their allegedly conclusive evidence that they refuse to share, and they found one empty room.  

I've asked this before, but how can you trust the evidence that forms the basis of all the other thousands and thousands of strikes, many of which killed numerous civilians, when their intelligence is so unreliable?  You have to assume that the intelligence backing the HQ would be much more extensive that the intelligence backing virtually all the other strikes.  So how much confidence can you have that the rest of the strikes were justified?  They've destroyed tens of thousands structures in less than two months.  You can imagine how thin the evidence, which is likely to be shit anyway, is.

Israel clearly wants to bomb the south after they are done exchanging hostages with Hamas.  But I really don't think they can justify doing so, at least not in good faith and backed by reliable evidence.  There is a little more reporting now that the US is trying to pressure Israel to show more restraint in the south, but we'll have to see if that is effective or will just be ignored.

Edited by Mudguard
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6 hours ago, Altherion said:

This is a fair point, but on the other hand, is there evidence that disease or any of the other typical non-combat causes of civilian deaths are about to take hold in Gaza? There is a fairly heavy UN presence there and trucks of aid just a few kilometers away.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/more-people-risk-death-disease-than-bombings-gaza-who-2023-11-28/

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"Eventually we will see more people dying from disease than we are even seeing from the bombardment if we are not able to put back (together) this health system," the WHO's Margaret Harris said at a U.N. briefing in Geneva.

She repeated concerns about a rise in infectious diseases, particularly diarrhoea in infants and children, with cases for those aged five and older surging to more than 100 times normal levels by early November.

"Everybody everywhere has dire health needs now because they're starving because they lack clean water and (they’re) crowded together," she said.

 

Edited by mormont
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Not directly related to the actual conflict, but I’m curious as to why the concert organisers thought it was a good idea to have the event take place so close to Gaza. Even if the October 7th attack had not taken place, there was always the possibility of random missiles making it past the Iron Dome and hitting the venue and surrounding. Maybe, it would have been better if it had taken place around Eilat.

 

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2 minutes ago, House Balstroko said:

Not directly related to the actual conflict, but I’m curious as to why the concert organisers thought it was a good idea to have the event take place so close to Gaza. Even if the October 7th attack had not taken place, there was always the possibility of random missiles making it past the Iron Dome and hitting the venue and surrounding. Maybe, it would have been better if it had taken place around Eilat.

 

I read that it was sort of a last minute decision to put it there.

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The organizers switched to the site only two days before, after the original location in southern Israel did not work out.[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re'im_music_festival_massacre

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13 hours ago, Altherion said:

This is somewhat pessimistic. If you look at the map, what the Israelis have done is told all the civilians to go south and have cut off Gaza City from the south of Gaza. Since most of the civilians are indeed gone and the fighting is mostly in the north, the number of civilian casualties should be much smaller than in the first few weeks of the war (and indeed you can see this in the numbers just before the truce).

Except Israeli forces will be striking south of the river soon enough. We discussed this over a week ago. I'd love to see whatever plans the Israeli army has in the works to mitigate civilian casualties once it resumes operations. Other than some supposed "safe zone" there doesn't seem to be anything on that front.

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Reporting from The Times of Israel that comes as a surprise to no one I suppose.

 

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly met with at least 10 backbenchers in his Likud party over the past week in an effort to ensure their continued support, as the ruling party drops further and further in the polls since the war.
I am the only one who will prevent a Palestinian state in Gaza and [the West Bank] after the war,” the Kan public broadcaster quotes Netanyahu as having told the lawmakers.

The stance clashes directly with the policy of the Biden administration, which has sought to revive talk of a two-state solution in order to maintain the support of the Arab world, as he continues to offer full-throttled backing of Israel.

Netanyahu reportedly also told the Likud lawmakers that the Biden administration did not want Israel to launch a ground incursion in Gaza and did not want the IDF to enter Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital where a Hamas command center is located underneath. Netanyahu reportedly boasted about having gone against the US wishes in both of those cases.

Two US officials speaking with The Times of Israel made no such indication that the US opposed Israel’s operations in Gaza, as Netanyahu suggested. Rather, Washington pushed for the IDF to ensure the protection of civilians, the officials said, noting that they principally support expanding the ground operation into southern Gaza, so long as civilians are accounted for.

“I have known [US President Joe] Biden for more than 40 years, and know how to speak to the American public,” Kan quotes Netanyahu as having told the Likud backbenchers in individual meetings.

According to an August Pew Research Center poll, 42% of Americans said they have no confidence in Netanyahu, 32% said they have confidence in him and 26% of Americans said they had not heard of the Israeli premier. Views of Netanyahu varied by political ideology, with Republicans more likely to have confidence in him than Democrats. (49% vs. 17%)

One of Netanyahu’s sit-downs was with Likud MK David Bitan, who urged the prime minister to avoid bombastic declarations that have come back to haunt him. Netanyahu had initially declared that Israel would not allow any fuel into Gaza before walking that pledge back earlier this month.

Kan reports that Netanyahu made clear to the fellow faction members that he does not plan to go anywhere after the war.

 

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13 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

How loose do you want to get with the term human shield though? Obviously if I'm physically holding someone right in front of me to prevent myself getting shot, that is a human shield. But if the whole neighbourhood we are in gets blown up to take out my supposed munitions factory, does everyone in neighbouring blocks still count, even those at the other end of the street? I don't think you can say that all the people who have died, died because they were human shields. By the 8th of November, 45% of housing in Gaza was reported destroyed or damaged (https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/11/gaza-destroying-civilian-housing-and-infrastructure-international-crime). Hamas cannot possibly be using all of that, surely?

To some extent yes. When you fire a ton of rockets from such areas it's inevitable the counter attack will hit innocent people. There's no magic bullet here.

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Also... Israel could just not bomb so much? 

Pretty sure most people agree, but asking for a clean approach isn't also feasible. 

3 hours ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

It's always nice to find a ways to absolve military brutality and excessive force against civilian populations. 

I'm not sure people are absolving all of Israel's actions, but if you put these conditions into a simulator and removed the names of the two parties it would probably spit out something closer to what Israel has done than what others have said they should have.

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1 hour ago, Relic said:

Except Israeli forces will be striking south of the river soon enough. We discussed this over a week ago. I'd love to see whatever plans the Israeli army has in the works to mitigate civilian casualties once it resumes operations. Other than some supposed "safe zone" there doesn't seem to be anything on that front.

Let's be honest, they probably don't have many plans and my guess is a lot of the leadership is in cover your ass mode and thinking very shortsightedly. 

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I can understand supporting the Palestinians and objecting to large scale Israeli attacks that kill so many Palestinian civilians.  That makes sense to me.

I do not understand people backing or offering apologia for Hamas.  It is an extemist theocratic organization that is bent on killing people for being Jews in Israel/Palestine. 

Hell senior Muslim Clerics in Iraq issued a fatwa against Hamas for its extremism and heresy in March 2023. Hamas is not an organization that should be defended or offered apologia:

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/03/13/senior-muslim-clerics-issue-fatwa-against-hamas/

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54 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Reporting from The Times of Israel that comes as a surprise to no one I suppose.

 

 

I so desperately want Netanyahu… and Likud if possible… out of power.  They are as much responsible for Oct. 7 and the horrors unleashed as Hamas is.

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