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US Politics the Biden's age a nothing burger edition


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36 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I'm not sure it would make a huge difference either way, but if I had to lean, I'd say debate him.

Biden and Trump's debates in 2020 were really hard to watch, but Biden did fairly well in looking like a normal person standing up to a human firehose of psychotic rage. Biden came out looking okay, while Trump looked awful to anyone outside of his cult.

I think this makes sense. And let's not forget that Trump is now more unhinged and incoherent than he was 3 (by debate time it will be 4) years ago. Magas will never leave him, but a sane person might.

Remember this? 

 

Edited by kissdbyfire
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39 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The first debate absolutely helped Biden.  The other debates didn't matter.  Biden refusing to debate would seem cowardly and play into Trump's hands.  Besides, Trump probably won't show up anyway.

Agreed. I could totally see Trump declining the debates. 

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The first debate absolutely helped Biden.  The other debates didn't matter.  Biden refusing to debate would seem cowardly and play into Trump's hands.  Besides, Trump probably won't show up anyway.

I don't think it 'absolutely helped'. 538 had some after polling and the results were slightly in Biden's favor, but not particularly much.

Which goes to show how little anything other than partisanship and external factors really matters. 

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11 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Presidential approval is nationwide, these are all local races. Obviously the correlation between the two can vary from state to state. Also, nearly all reproductive rights legislation appears to win regardless of partisan lean.

It's also the case that the presidential election is "local" since it's all about the electoral college, not the NPV. If Trump win 99% to 1% in Texas and Florida it's irrelevant if Biden snags the requisite number of states by a small margin. Can anyone see California or NY flipping Trump/Republican? If that's a possibility then I thin the Democrats would have more of a problem than just Biden being the candidate.

We know for 100% certain that a candidate can win the White House with a lower NPV than the losing candidate. It's just that this only seems to be achieved by Republicans because of structural advantages in the EC. However it would still be theoretically possible for a Democrat to pull it off.

I guess there must be state polling in the swing states. What are they saying?

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There was one NYT/Siena poll I linked to in one of the earlier threads that showed Trump ahead by roughly ~4 points in 4 the 5 states, with the caveat that if he was convicted then his support would erode by ~6 points. At this point in time there are large error bars and many 'undecideds', so I'd use those polls with caution. 

One thing to keep an eye on though was his support among minorities (about 20% among AA in those polls I think) which either isnt right, or is cause for concern. We'll see as the election gets closer.

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Judge and clerk in Trump civil fraud trial have received hundreds of ‘serious and credible’ threats

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/22/politics/trump-gag-order-threats-judge-clerk/index.html

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Hollon said Engoron’s law clerk has received 20-30 calls per day to her personal cell phone and 30-50 messages daily on social media platforms and two personal email addresses.

On a daily basis, he said, the judge and his staff receive hundreds of harassing and threatening phone calls, email and voicemail messages such that security staff are “having to constantly reassess and evaluate what security protections to put in place to ensure the safety of the judge and those around him.”

Since the gag order was lifted on November 16, Hollon said, the number of messages increased. He also said about half of the harassing messages the clerk received were antisemitic.

 


 

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7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The first debate absolutely helped Biden.  The other debates didn't matter.  Biden refusing to debate would seem cowardly and play into Trump's hands.  Besides, Trump probably won't show up anyway.

Your last sentence above fits my thinking. Given his refusal to participate in Republican debates, I would think it's more likely it will be Trump who refuses to debate Biden rather than vice versa.

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Can't find confirmation anywhere, but a internet rumor is percolating that (one?) of the recent polls that put Trump in the lead over Biden was actually a Team Trump op. Something about a former top Trump flunky being directly involved in the polling process.

 

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Age is just a number.  The issue with Biden isn't his number of years, it s that he's a hollow shell of a man, and it's obvious to nearly everyone.

Ruth Bader Ginsberg was still vibrant at 86 to 87.  So Joe has many good years left.  More than enough for a second fantastic term.

81 million ballots can't be wrong.  Joe won more votes than any candidate in history precisely because of his vigor, focus, and incorruptibility.  If it's a fair fight he'll win again.

 

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Given the thread title and the discussion so far, I'm partial to this argument.

Basically it argues that the press should cover Trump's crazyness more. Because: 

Quote

This four-part breakdown also helps us understand why the Don’t Amplify Him or the Banality of Crazy approaches haven’t worked. Much of what Trump says and does is objectionable to the vast majority of Americans who are decent, compassionate people. But right now, it’s the MAGA Mob and the Vote Red Until I’m Dead folks who are getting a constant saline drip of Trumpism into their veins. It’s not changing their minds; it’s just solidifying their devotion.

Meanwhile, the persuadable voters are being given the chance to forget the horrible stuff Trump did that they once knew about, all while reading blaring headlines about how Biden is old. (Biden is three years older than Trump — but, and I can’t believe I need to say this, elevated age is not remotely the same as being an authoritarian fraudster, found liable for rape, who stole the government’s nuclear secrets and sought to overturn an election to stay in power by inciting a violent attack on the US Capitol).

Keep this in mind: Trump’s approval rating plummeted after his comments about Charlottesville in 2018. Why? Because everyone knew about it. People who supported Trump grew a bit more sheepish about that support, because it became obvious that they were backing a racist. Nobody could pretend otherwise. Everyone knew. And that mattered.

 

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14 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

We know for 100% certain that a candidate can win the White House with a lower NPV than the losing candidate. It's just that this only seems to be achieved by Republicans because of structural advantages in the EC. However it would still be theoretically possible for a Democrat to pull it off.

There was a real chance of it happening in 2004. Kerry lost the national popular vote by 2.5%, but only lost Ohio (my how things change) by 2.1%. And if he won Ohio he'd have won the election.

Then, in both 2008 and 2012 Obama won the tipping point state (Colorado, in both cases) by more than his national popular vote margin. In 2008 he could've lost the national vote by up to 1.7% and still won the election, and in 2012 by up to 1.5%

Up until 2016, it was more often Republicans talking about abolishing the electoral college to erase the assumed Democratic edge there. Although it was only Democratic states actually passing the national popular vote compact to do so.

In general, the electoral edge has bounced back and forth between the parties. And the current Republican edge isn't even the worst it's been, it's just that elections used to more frequently be blowouts so it masked the issue. 

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9 hours ago, mcbigski said:

81 million ballots can't be wrong.  Joe won more votes than any candidate in history precisely because of his vigor, focus, and incorruptibility.  If it's a fair fight he'll win again.

Biden well could have lost to any other Republican candidate, provided they're not openly presenting as bat shit crazy and exhausting. People don't love him, but they don't hate him. Luckily for him, Republicans stuck with the clown car of chaos for their candidate, and negative partisanship in the electorate was supercharged against Trump.

If someone like Mitt Romney ran against Biden in 2024? Biden would be absolute toast. 

So the question is, why not pick the safer general election candidate, rather than the frothing wannabe fascists?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

So the question is, why not pick the safer general election candidate, rather than the frothing wannabe fascists?

Because the fascist party wants frothing lunatics, duh.  :P

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Because the fascist party wants frothing lunatics, duh.  :P

Also, for my own edification, if @mcbigski would like to tell his tale of how he came to embrace this cynical, paranoid, trollish, and contempt-fueled worldview, I would like to know more.

 

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