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US Politics the Biden's age a nothing burger edition


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11 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Given how inaccurate polls have been recently (“red wave anyone”) why are we obessing about polls?

The idea that polls have been inaccurate is largely overstated. In fact, they were some of the most accurate ever in 2022. As the article notes the main value of a poll is not to say who will win, but how close a race something might be. 

Also apparently just one pollster was responsible for that red wave garbage:


But the most famous of these is probably Trafalgar Group, a pollster whose methods are notoriously opaque but that played a significant role in shaping the ultimately untrue narrative that a “red wave” was building with its 37 (!) qualifying pre-election polls. Trafalgar’s polls were quite accurate in 2020, when its Republican-leaning house effects helped it avoid the big polling miss that other firms experienced. As a result, it went into 2022 with an A- pollster rating. But its poor performance last cycle has knocked it down to a B — making it one of two pollsters to fall two notches in our ratings this year.15


Edited by Kalbear
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