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How good of an admiral do you think that Paxter Redwyne is ?


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On 12/31/2023 at 4:16 AM, Gilbert Green said:

I asked for a rational analysis, and all I got were words.  Fine.  Don't explain.  Just say things.  Maybe some will mistake that for an argument.   Also, I never talked about the show.  Why are you?

Unless you're talking about a mathematics problem, it's pretty hard to have a rational analysis or make an argument without words or saying things?

I was referring to the show because it made a habit of ignoring the geography of its own world and it got so egregious that people who hadn't seen any maps other than the ones in the show's opening credits were finding it ridiculous. It was a handy example of how dumb this stuff can get.

It's about 4000 miles from the Arbor to Meereen as the crow (ha!) flies, but you can't actually sail as the crow flies because of Valyria. Even if you go through the Smoking Sea, the detour means the journey is closer to 5000 than 4000.

15 knots is about the top speed of a single-hulled sailing ship (tea clippers could go a bit faster). To achieve that they needed a decent following wind. But let's give Euron the best possible set of circumstances: he has a following wind the whole way, and the ship is somehow able to go at full speed 24 hours per day. That journey would take him about 12-13 days. You've suggested 12 knots as a "steady speed", which works out closer to 15 days.

But without magic, those assumptions are frankly preposterous. A following wind over that whole distance isn't going to happen. And even if the crew can run the ship at top speed for 24 hours a day for that period, it would be crazy to do that so close to land even through properly charted waters let alone through uncharted waters like the Smoking Sea, even during the day let alone at night. And even if Euron is both mad and lucky enough that he somehow manages to do that and not run aground in the Silence, there's no way he could keep his fleet together while doing so.

A mundane ship making that journey, even a highly efficient one like a clipper, accounting for normal winds, actually navigating rather than just going in a straight line and hoping the rocks and shoals move out of their way, would expect to make something more like 6 knots (half your proposed average speed), which would get him there in more like 30 days. And that's still assuming they go through the Smoking Sea.

GRRM has created a huge world. The hugeness of that world is rendered pointless, even risible, if characters can travel across pretty much the entirety of one dimension of it like it's nothing.
 

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Well, this argument started with the assumption that Euron was headed to face the Redwyne Fleet, and me challenging that assumption.

We are now at the point where you agree that he was actually headed for Slavers Bay at one point, but demanding proof that GRRM did not change his mind.

Okay fine.  I guess I cannot prove that he did not, or will not, change his mind.

I guess your opinion is that he ought to change his mind, because the idea is unpopular.

 

What?

I'm not saying that he ought to change his mind because the idea is unpopular. I'm saying that he demonstrably has changed his mind at least a bit if the AFfC outline has Euron going to Slaver's Bay and in AFfC/ADwD he does not go to Slaver's Bay. So his ideas for Euron's plot have changed since that outline was written.

That doesn't make it impossible that he will go to Slaver's Bay in future, but it looks to me like GRRM sent Victarion instead. If GRRM's plan was to have Euron go to Slaver's Bay in those books, he could simply have had the Ironborn agree to go with him and off they go. Concocting a whole shaggy dog story about his sending Victarion instead and having multiple chapters showing that long and arduous journey and then having Euron pop up at the end of it seems unnecessarily long-winded given that nothing is apparently accomplished by separating the two characters for that length of time. Given how bloated the books became and how much he's been struggling to write the last couple, you'd have thought he'd save himself the trouble and just stick with his original plan of sending Euron in the first place.

Incidentally, where in the outline does it say Euron is going to Slaver's Bay? Because I've just looked at the leaked pages and I can't see any mention of Euron or indeed any Ironborn characters.

 

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16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Unless you're talking about a mathematics problem, it's pretty hard to have a rational analysis or make an argument without words or saying things?

Yes.  Time/distance problems are mathematics problems, to the extent that they are rational.   To the extent your objection is rational, it must be based on mathematics.

George has not made this easy for you.  His philosophy is not to provide precise times and distances.  He has even said to put away your stopwatch and ruler and enjoy the story.  But I won't hold you to that.  Give it your best shot.  And to be fair, you have finally put some effort into this, though I don't think it gets you where you want to go.

I do, wish, though that you would give a rest to the less rational of your arguments.  I don't need to hear how "risible" you think my ideas are.  I don't need to listen to hyperventilation about "making a mockery of geography".    I am not interested in whether people are mad at the show or why.  I'm not trying to be mean, but when you talk like that I just roll my eyes.  Look, man, I already know that your view is popular and mine is unpopular.  I don't care.  If you can't give me a real argument, I'd rather agree to disagree.

That said, I am going to skip the parts of your post I find annoying, and focus on the good stuff.  Also, Happy New Year!

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

It's about 4000 miles from the Arbor to Meereen as the crow (ha!) flies, but you can't actually sail as the crow flies because of Valyria. Even if you go through the Smoking Sea, the detour means the journey is closer to 5000 than 4000.

15 knots is about the top speed of a single-hulled sailing ship (tea clippers could go a bit faster). To achieve that they needed a decent following wind. But let's give Euron the best possible set of circumstances: he has a following wind the whole way, and the ship is somehow able to go at full speed 24 hours per day. That journey would take him about 12-13 days. You've suggested 12 knots as a "steady speed", which works out closer to 15 days.

This is actually a reasonable analysis.  Though of course it is very tentative.  The distances could easily be more.  Or less.

Using the book maps from my ADWD hardback, I measured roughly 4000 miles from the Arbor to Meereen (through the Smoking Sea and up; not as the crow flies).  Could easily be more or less.  Using the map from the "Known World" entry from the Wiki of Ice and Fire, and using its legend, I came up with roughly 4500 miles from the Arbor to Meereen.  Other world maps out there (not necessarily canonical) lead to figures as low as 2700 miles.

If I take the 4000 figure as closest to "canon"; and assume a steady 12 knots, he gets there in 12 days.  So yeah, that's a bit more than a week.  Fair point there.

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

But without magic, those assumptions are frankly preposterous. A following wind over that whole distance isn't going to happen.

But dude.  This is a fantasy world.  There is magic.

Euron's cheeky remark to Asha, when she accuses him or murdering Balon, was that if he could control the weather, he could always have fair winds and never be becalmed.

Now the funny thing is, you don't object to the idea that Euron can control the weather.  You were willing to consider that at the very beginning of this thread.  But you refuse to consider the implications of this, which Euron specifically points out. 

Your attitude is:  Yes Euron, you may control the weather; yes Euron, you may summon storms to sink mighty fleets; but no, Euron, you cannot always have fair winds and never be becalmed; because that would "make a mockery of geography";  because me and my friends are mad at a TV show.

And we've seen this kind of magic before.  Mel turbo-boosted Stannis' fleet to the wall with blood magic.  Moqorro turbo-boosted Victarion's fleet to Slavers' Bay by blood magic.  And Moqorro sees Euron "sailing on a sea of blood".

Another thing you have forgotten is that this is not the "Daario = Euron" debate.  This is merely the "Euron is going to Slavers Bay" debate.  For purposes of this debate, Euron does not need maximum theoretical speeds the whole way.  He can go considerably slower, and still be able to send Victarion ahead of him and arrive at the same time.  And why does he even need to arrive at the same time?  Why not later?  For this proposition to be true, all that is necessary is for him to arrive on time to have some plot relevance.  Which can be any number of weeks later for all we know.  Dany is not even in Meereen at the moment.  She's out somewhere in the Dothraki sea, and, according to some plausible theories, will not be returning for many weeks, as she has to go to Vaes Dothrak first to gather together a few extra Dothraki hordes before she returns to Meereen.   Seems to me that there is, potentially, plenty of time for Euron to get there, and still have an effect on the plot.

If you hate magic making a mockery of geography, what will you think when full-grown dragons finally reach Westeros?  80 mph, with an 8 hour per day travel, gets one 640 miles per day; and I will not be surprised if dragonriders can do significantly better.  Poor Euron, at a steady 12 knots, can only do about 330 miles per 24 hours, and only if he sticks to the ocean.  No wonder he wants dragons, poor fellow.

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

 And even if the crew can run the ship at top speed for 24 hours a day for that period, it would be crazy to do that so close to land even through properly charted waters let alone through uncharted waters like the Smoking Sea, even during the day let alone at night.

With a steady wind, there is not much for the crew to do, except keep a lookout.  Except for the Smoking Sea, most of the trip will be through open ocean.  And as for the Smoking Sea, yes that is crazy, considering no-one has ever went there and returned alive.   I guess Euron is indeed crazy, like everyone says.

But the trick may well be that you do have to go through there at maximum speed.  Without fast speed, and a strong stiff wind behind you, maybe you get boiled by steam, and killed by poisonous fumes, before you can get through the deadlier areas.  Whatever it is that kills people entering the Smoking Sea, I'm guessing it is probably not something normal like hidden rocks.  Maximum speed may very well be the best survival strategy, for all we know.

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And even if Euron is both mad and lucky enough that he somehow manages to do that and not run aground in the Silence, there's no way he could keep his fleet together while doing so.

But you don't know this.  It is a made-up objection.  We've seen magic used twice to turbo-boost fleets over long distances, and on neither occasion was the fleet scattered or lost.

And if Euron does lose half his ships, or more, so what?  He's got another entire fleet waiting for him when he gets through.  Do you think Euron actually cares about the lives of his men?  If GRRM wants Euron to get there, I guess Euron will get there.

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

A mundane ship making that journey, even a highly efficient one like a clipper, accounting for normal winds, actually navigating rather than just going in a straight line and hoping the rocks and shoals move out of their way, would expect to make something more like 6 knots (half your proposed average speed), which would get him there in more like 30 days. And that's still assuming they go through the Smoking Sea.

But these numbers work fine for "Euron is going to Slavers Bay" purposes.  What's the problem?  In fact, why not just increase it to 45 days?

This is like when you quibbled with my "3 miles to the horizon" mention.  It doesn't get you where you need to go.

16 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Incidentally, where in the outline does it say Euron is going to Slaver's Bay? Because I've just looked at the leaked pages and I can't see any mention of Euron or indeed any Ironborn characters.

Dunno.  Just something reported by the fan who originally read them.  I don't know anything about any specific leaked pages.  I'm sure you can find the discussions if you look for them.  Note that I am not referring to the more-recent "leaked outline".

And again, I did not base my opinion on the early drafts.  I formed my opinion based on the published text.  Most recently in the Winds sample chapter, where Euron tells Aeron they are sailing for "dragons"; that he does not care about the Seastone Chair; that he does not expect to hold the Shields.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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21 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And even if Euron is both mad and lucky enough that he somehow manages to do that and not run aground in the Silence, there's no way he could keep his fleet together while doing so.

21 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

 

Further on this:

In "The Foresaken", the second time Euron doses Aeron with the Wine of the Warlocks, his first vision is that of Ironborn ships, adrift and burning on a BOILING blood red sea.

One possible interpretation (feel free to suggest others) is that the Ironborn ships of Euron's fleet (there are at least 13, I think, including The Silence) will indeed attempt the shortcut through the Smoking Sea.  And it sure looks like some of them might not make it.

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Anyhow I don't see how you can avoid the conclusion that Euron is a fast traveler by sea.  News that Dany had arrived in Quarth seems to have taken about 6 months or so to reach KL.  But news that Dany had left Qarth, and was in fact in Slavers Bay, traveled a much farther distance to the Iron Islands, in a much shorter period, by way of Euron.

I've seen people try to get around this by speculating Euron picked up the Qartheen Warlocks near Pentos.  But that merely replaces Euron the fast traveler, with Quartheen Warlocks the fast travelers, for part of the distance.  The Warlocks started behind Dany.  They were chasing her.

Dany must have spent some months in Qarth.  But Pyat Pree leaves Qarth after Dany does, and, thanks to Euron, arrives in the Iron Islands before anyone there has heard that Dany or her dragons are in Qarth. 

Euron also arrives at the Iron Islands knowing that Dany and her dragons are in Slavers' Bay.  But I suppose one could argue he found out that much by magic, using the Wine of the Warlocks.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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Though he doesn't have a legendary record I do think that Paxter isn't an incompetent admiral and war leader, he has no defeat or big failure on his part, and his methods to deal with the siege of Dragonstone which was of avoiding a direct assault on Dragonstone due its formidable defenses and instead starving the defenders out or finding and exploiting a flaw in the walls and foundations via mining to open a breach indicate that he's pragmatic and cautious, and wants to avoid big casualties. 

I do think that he would be able of winning and smashing the Ironborn under normal circumstances with his fleet's superior power and his leadership, but that Euron will pull some magic trick of his hat that Paxter won't have any defense against to allow the Ironborn to win this one.

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5 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I do think that he would be able of winning and smashing the Ironborn under normal circumstances with his fleet's superior power and his leadership, but that Euron will pull some magic trick of his hat that Paxter won't have any defense against to allow the Ironborn to win this one.

Without magic, it is absurd.

With magic, anything is possible.

But this is hypothetical.  Because what he wants lies in Slavers' Bay.  He has no interest in protecting the Ironborn on the Shields from the wrath of the Redwyne Fleet.   He makes this clear in his conversation with Aeron.  When Aeron tells him he cannot hold the Shields, he responds that he neither wants nor intends to hold the Shields.

We know his intentions because he tells us.  He's not going to stop Paxter from kicking Ironborn butt.  Not necessarily because he can't.  But because he simply does not care, whether he can or not.

The fools who accepted his poison gifts are about to get their asses handed to them.  The fools who follow him through the Smoking Sea will not necessarily do much better.  All are expendable.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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Probably very good

Hes grown up in a house with a giant fleet and port si is probably a competent sailor, has manged their vast merchant and smaller military fleet for decades , is assumed to have assisted stannis vs the greyjoys and besieged stormsend by sea. Overall his background means hed probably be quite competent

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