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US Politics: Sitting in Judgement


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1 hour ago, TrackerNeil said:

I say with utter certainty that the instant Michelle O declared for the White House her favorables would plummet. It's always easy to like people who aren't perceived to be in the scrum of politics, and women are always, always, always less popular when they run for office than when they are simply holding office or doing anything else. Back in 2013, Hillary Clinton was a popular meme of coolness!

Heck, according to this page, Hillary Clinton is currently more popular than Hakeem Jeffries, Cory Booker and Rahm Emanuel. 

https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/Democrats/all

Biden, meanwhile, is the fifth most popular Democrat, behind only Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders. And if that strikes you as a weird mix, well, voters are weird. 

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Senate Poised to Advance Ukraine Bill as G.O.P. Splinters
Pressure from hard-liners, including former President Donald J. Trump, has not swayed a coalition of Republican senators that has broken with the party to back the bill.
Feb. 12, 2024, 4:46 p.m. ET

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/us/politics/senate-ukraine-aid.html

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A bipartisan coalition of senators was on track Monday to push a $95 billion foreign aid package to the brink of passage, as Republicans fractured bitterly over the bill.

Over the past week, 18 Republicans have rallied around the legislation, helping to advance it through the Senate despite the full-throated opposition of the bulk of G.O.P. senators, Republican leaders in the House and the party’s likely presidential nominee, Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Trump and his right-wing allies have been pressuring Senate Republicans relentlessly to abandon the legislation, which would direct $60.1 billion toward helping Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, $14.1 billion toward Israel’s war against Hamas and almost $10 billion toward humanitarian aid for civilians in conflict zones, including Palestinians in Gaza.

Mr. Trump in particular has been railing against the legislation from the campaign trail. In recent days, he has cheered G.O.P. senators for killing an earlier version of the bill that included a bipartisan deal on border security, argued on social media that it was “stupid” for the United States to offer foreign aid instead of loans, and encouraged Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members that did not spend enough money on their own defense.

But the pressure appeared to have backfired, at least partially, in the Senate, where by Monday, more than a third of Republicans had cast multiple votes to keep the aid bill moving forward — and their coalition appeared to be holding firm.

“It overall accomplishes the goals that we wish to accomplish, if you want to keep Russians from killing Americans, push back on the C.C.P., and support our ally Israel,” Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, said of the bill on the floor during a rare weekend session on Sunday evening, referring to the Chinese Communist Party. He accused his Republican colleagues of “dishonesty” in the way they were characterizing the legislation. “We in the Senate owe it to the American people to vote the honest truth and get something done.”  ....

 

 

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4 hours ago, Durckad said:

Regarding Biden's low polling, is it entirely possible that this is due simply to the coalition of voters that elected him? Looking back to the primary, seemingly no one (by no one, I mean voters) really wanted Biden to be the nominee, but after several others dropped out and support started to coalesce around Biden, those same people that didn't want him begrudgingly ended up voting for him in the general.

Those voters included:

Progressives and Never Trumpers who hated and feared Trump enough to reluctantly vote for Biden, Center Right Conservatives who would normally vote Republican but couldn't stand voting for Trump (possibly again), and disaffected liberals who wanted someone else in the Primary to win but really wanted Trump out. All of this leaves Biden with an incredibly low ceiling of approval amongst his coalition and that results in the coalition being more willing to criticize the candidate they voted for. Partisan politics kinda leads to selective blinders being put on when it comes to the candidate the voters actually voted for. See, for example, Trump voters and everything they criticize other candidates of doing is something Trump has openly done. It's either a lie or fake news or okay when HE does not, but not anyone else. Whereas the coalition of reluctant Biden voters is more willing to say "Biden was never my first choice, I only voted for him to get Trump out, so he sucks on issues A, B, and C."

Combine that with his (relative) lack of charisma and his age and you have very soft positive support for Biden. No idea if it's true, but it's just a thought.

I think there's a lot to this.  It certainly describes most Dem and independent voters I know.  Personally, I certainly don't approve of Biden; I actively dislike him.  If I was polled I'd say that I don't approve of him.  But I'll still be voting for that creepy lying fucker.  

Edit: to be clear, the "creepy lying fucker" I'm voting for refers to Biden, not Trump.

Edited by Larry of the Lawn
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5 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

No, that's what old school republicans like Graham say. JD Vance sings a different tune.

There are two types of Trump supporters: those who support him because they fear for their political careers if they don't; and those who are true believers and eat up anything he says as god's honest truth.

The ones who fear him could abandon him if a Biden win starts to look solid. They might even coalesce to support a Trump spoiling 3rd party option, which may already exist in the form of RFK, since they would definitely end their political careers if they directly supported Biden. 

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4 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

There are two types of Trump supporters: those who support him because they fear for their political careers if they don't; and those who are true believers and eat up anything he says as god's honest truth.

The ones who fear him could abandon him if a Biden win starts to look solid. They might even coalesce to support a Trump spoiling 3rd party option, which may already exist in the form of RFK, since they would definitely end their political careers if they directly supported Biden. 

IMO you’re forgetting at least one other type of Trump voter: those who know he is a vile, despicable and dangerous individual, they know he is a lying criminal, and will hold their noses and vote for him anyways because he delivers what they care about like tax cuts or “drill drill drill” or zero regulations on anything, etc.

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19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

IMO you’re forgetting at least one other type of Trump voter: those who know he is a vile, despicable and dangerous individual, they know he is a lying criminal, and will hold their noses and vote for him anyways because he delivers what they care about like tax cuts or “drill drill drill” or zero regulations on anything, etc.

They're more like category 1a, but I was talking more about politicians (and maybe pundits) than voters.

Anyway, first I've seen of Alan Lichtman this election year and...drum roll...he's not making his 13 keys prediction yet, but his view is Biden is the best shot for the Democrats to win since Biden running automatically gives the Democrats 2 of the 7 keys they need to win. Clickbait video title by Times Radio because Lichtman does not say anything of the sort, and technically the title does not attribute such a prediction to Lichtman but as clickbait titles so often do they try to make people think it does.

 

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4 hours ago, mormont said:

Heck, according to this page, Hillary Clinton is currently more popular than Hakeem Jeffries, Cory Booker and Rahm Emanuel. 

https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/Democrats/all

Biden, meanwhile, is the fifth most popular Democrat, behind only Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders. And if that strikes you as a weird mix, well, voters are weird. 

That poll also has RFK Jr higher than AOC. Not sure it's very credible.

Also, I don't know a single person that likes Rahm Emanuel. He's a known piece of shit and a relatively unknown individual to probably 90% of the public.

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Democrats better hope the general election polls start improving, by about May or so they have more predictive power of who will win. That's when I would panic greatly if Biden is still 3-4 points underwater, be highly nervous if he is at parity and still be concerned if he's 3-4 points ahead.

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39 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Democrats better hope the general election polls start improving, by about May or so they have more predictive power of who will win. That's when I would panic greatly if Biden is still 3-4 points underwater, be highly nervous if he is at parity and still be concerned if he's 3-4 points ahead.

You know, I finally watched a production of Beckett's Waiting for Godot last night.

Why am I bringing this up? Well, I must say that sitting through it has helped me process the constant anticipatory dread that I've been feeling, the constant worrying about what lies ahead and when will things start to look rosier. 

I'm still worried of course, and I'm still going to do whatever is in my power to get Biden elected. But in that spirit, we need to care of ourselves, to find ways to manage our stress. Video games or alcohol can do the trick sometimes, but if you want something more therapeutic, Beckett can deliver. Not gonna lie though, while sitting through it I lost a sense of time, and wondered if I was losing my mind for a bit. Yet despite all that, it's darkly hilarious. Gave me a great perspective.

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Senate passes $95B aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan despite Trump attacks
Speaker Mike Johnson signaled opposition to the package on Monday, saying the House will “continue to work its own will.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/13/senate-aid-package-ukraine-israel-taiwan-00141135

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The Senate approved $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid by a 70-29 vote early on Tuesday morning, sending the bill to an uncertain fate in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson is giving the legislation a frosty reception.

Despite a last-ditch effort from conservative opponents of the bill, Johnson‘s cold water and former President Donald Trump’s attempts to kill the legislation, Republican support for the deal actually grew overnight, with 22 GOP senators voting in favor of the package — a kind of rejection of those in the party, like Trump, who argued any aid should be structured as a loan.

“With the strong bipartisan support we have here in the Senate, with this vote, I believe that if Speaker Johnson brought this bill to the House floor, it will pass with the same strong bipartisan support,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

 

 

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