Memory of Light v. A Dance With Dragons

[Humble Asskicker]

I wasn't certain if this should go in the Lit forum, because it concerns another author, or ASoIaF forum, because it concerns ASoIaF. I'll let the mods decide.

All right guys, lay down your bets.

I think this is a pretty tough call. Both authors have their pros and cons that would expedite or delay their novels. Let's start with the cons.

Robert Jordan:

- Suffers from a terminal, incapacitating disease.

- Spends a lot of time corresponding with fans.

- A Memory of Light is supposedly going to be a very long book.

George R. R. Martin

- Easily distracted.

- Likes to revise and revise again. It doesn't matter how much time it takes as long as the book is the best it can be. Case in point, AFFC. (Note: this can be considered a pro, depending on personal perspective.)

- Spends a lot more time corresponding with fans.

- Spends a lot of time selling o...negotiating business deals regarding merchandise and paraphernalia of his franchise.

-Writes other stuff.

Now for the pros.

Robert Jordan:

- Immensely passionate about his series.

- Focused.

George R. R. Martin:

- Not suffering from a terminal, incapacitating disease.

- Already wrote around a quarter to a third of A Dance With Dragons a year and a half ago.

- Anyway, feel free to suggest more pros and cons for either author.

Here's my analysis:

For one, the question of whether Jordan will even survive to complete the book is a big thing, but I won't talk about that. In respect to GRRM and Jordan, I won't speculate on their health, because that's just crass. Instead, I'm going to assume that they'll both live long and healthy until the completion of their works. Still, one cannot help but figure that, for undisclosed reasons, his writing may be delayed to an unusual degree. His blogging and interaction with fans likely adds greatly to this.

Also, even though he seems very determined to finish Memory of Light, it's taken him an average of two and a half years to complete each of the last three books he's written. The way he speaks of Memory of Light makes it sound like this one will be nearly twice the length of those previous three, which would mean, if he kept of the pace he set, it would take five years to complete it. So with the added consideration of fan interaction and the "problem" I will respectfully decline to mention, it seems absurd to expect the book to come out any time soon. However, Jordan has shown himself to be full of surprises.

As for GRRM, well, he's...capricious in his writing. It's really not easy to get him to write. I mean, there's so many other things to do, so why write when you can make money with a few meetings and a signature allowing someone the rights to sell products based on your franchise? And also, those fans who are more interested in meeting the man than reading the series, because he's a friend and a human being who shouldn't be objectified based on the work he's famous for, and it's his life for chrissake, he can do what he wants, he's more important than a few stupid books...where was I?

Anyway, it takes a significant confluence of variables being just right for him to write. And he likes to rewrite, again and again. Which is a good thing when the resulting book is good. But it adds to the delay. A very positive thing though, that offsets all of these delaying factors, is that he had several hundred pages of Dance completed when Feast came out. Now maybe he's just spent a lot of time rewriting those chapters, or discarding them altogether, but I prefer to view things in a more positive light. Also, it has been a year and a half since his last book. Usually that's enough time for most authors to complete a whole book, so that makes me think that GRRM should be at least halfway through; with the addition of those extra hundreds of pages of completed manuscript from earlier, I'd say he should be over 3/4 of the way through.

With these factors in mind, I think GRRM will have his novel completed somewhere in early to mid '08, and Jordan in mid to late '09.

So my vote goes to GRRM.

[Starkess]

My vote goes to GRRM too, but not by much. I expect AMoL in 2009 and am hoping to get ADWD sometime next year.

[dornish prince]

ADwD will be completed first.

[Decius]

I thought Jordan successfully defeated or at least checked the disease? If so I think his book will be out first.

[Isabel]

I thought Jordan successfully defeated or at least checked the disease? If so I think his book will be out first.

Jordan hasn't succesfully defeated the disease. If you look at his last post you hear that the disease fighting itself is going good, but the side effects of the medicines are really bad. He is really tired. A trip to the restaurant is much.

I think a memory of light will come out first. Also because of what RJ said in his last blog:

Well guys, Im back. I know you would like to hear from me every week or even more frequently, but Im afraid that once a month is going to be about it for a time. I am trying to put every spare moment into A Memory of Light. There aren t too many of those spare moments right now. My meds induce fatigue, so it is hard to keep going. Ill fight it through, though. Don�t worry. The book will be finished as soon as I can manage it. NOT in time for this Christmas, I fear. I don�t know where that rumor got started. Except that Tom Doherty, my publisher, wants to put out the Prologue if I can have it polished to my satisfaction by August. That isn t easy. I always hate letting go. I have rewritten prologues almost from scratch after I finished the rest of the novel. I always think I can do better with another go around. Oh, well, Ill give it a try.

[Werthead]

Tor are expecting to release A Memory of Light in early 2009. Give that we are expecting a completion announcement for A Dance with Dragons within a few months, I cannot seen how AMoL would make it out first. The only exception is if RJ's condition radically improves and he can increase his workrate dramatically which, despite the overall positive tone of his blog entry, does not seem to be happening at the moment. But anything is possible.

[rado907]

Dance of Dragons definitely.

[Demonblade]

GRRM seems to be too interested in doing other things like going to Cons, selling merchandise of his products, etc. for me to believe that he is in any way close to finishing ADWD. He was six months away from finishing AFFC for about three years, after all. No, A Memory of Light will come out first. Jordan's been pretty consistent with putting out his books (with fluctuating degrees of quality, of course) in a timely manner, so I'm betting on Jordan.

[Isabel]

GRRM seems to be too interested in doing other things like going to Cons, selling merchandise of his products, etc. for me to believe that he is in any way close to finishing ADWD. He was six months away from finishing AFFC for about three years, after all. No, A Memory of Light will come out first. Jordan's been pretty consistent with putting out his books (with fluctuating degrees of quality, of course) in a timely manner, so I'm betting on Jordan.

Plus GRRM said he would need many many more good writings days to finish Dance. It seems like normally he doesn't have a good writing day. I think RJ will put out aMoL sooner than aDwD.

[Ran]

ADwD'll be done first.

[Maltaran]

I'd bet on Dance as well, but I'd guess both books will be out in 08

[pat5150]

Given the fact that A Dance with Dragons was nearly halfway done when A Feast for Crows was published, it would add insult to injury if Robert Jordan somehow managed to get A Memory of Light before GRRM can turn in his latest. . .

Patrick

[AverageGuy]

Jordan: AMoL, '08 or early '09.

Martin: ADWD, late '10.

[Slurktan]

If were playing poker I'd go all in with Jordan. He at least wants to write the book. As well it seems to me GRRM still doesn't have the ending for a book he started 7 years ago but that could just be me.

[pat5150]

Faith in GRRM seems to be at an all-time low. Considering how well A Feast for Crows was received by many, that's no big surprise.

But here, in the emperor's own palace!?!

Patrick

[Guarneri]

Faith in GRRM seems to be at an all-time low. Considering how well A Feast for Crows was received by many, that's no big surprise.

But here, in the emperor's own palace!?!

Patrick

I think most of us know that ADWD will be better than Memory of Light.

Martin is a brilliant writer....he just needs less, "Ah! And then John Snow will pick up the sword and...oh, look, a butterfly! *skips off*" moments

[DrBloodmoney]

I have very little faith that either series will be completed before both authors croak. Jordan, obviously has an illness that will seriously diminish his creative longevity and GRRM just doesn't look all that healthy either.

[Padraig]

Martin is a brilliant writer....he just needs less, "Ah! And then John Snow will pick up the sword and...oh, look, a butterfly! *skips off*" moments

Classic...even if I totally disagree with the suggestion.

But here, in the emperor's own palace!?!

Well, there probably is no point in saying that GRRM hasn't been at that many cons this year. Or announcing that many deals. People see what they want.

Personally, I don't think most people have lost faith. Its just that most people aren't going to bother arguing about it anymore. He'll be done when he is done. And at least his recent comment about "Parris keeping him chained to the desk" sounds like he is putting in the hours.

[Sword of the Morning]

I get the feeling Martin is more focused as well. Having said this however:

He may not go to that many cons or announce that many deals per your opinion but he certainly does way too much of both for someone who has had so many problems writing the main sequence of his magnum opus.

In any case, Martin and Jordan come from different backgrounds and different places. Martin was a hard core fan of comic books and pulp scif and fantasy and BEGAN at the cons. Jordan's past is quite a bit different. I think if you were to compare how many cons Martin attends to some of the other major names in fantasy currently writing, it would be near the top. This problem is compounded by his seemingly slow writing and progress which leads to some of the frustrated posts on here. I wouldn't give a shit how many cons Terry Pratchett goes to for instance because the man writes incredible quality books like clock-work every year. He could go to a Con every day for all I cared. Now when you take 5 years to write one book and are into your 2nd year on a novel you bragged was 1/3 to 1/2 done 2 years ago . . . well the context is going to be a little different and I can definitely understand newer fans beginning to question Martin's continued dedication to getting the next book out. I also don't appreciate how Parris keeping George chained at the desk helps if the attitude that Martin's creative energy and focus can't be "forced" (thus justifying his con appearances and other distractions) still holds. In fact, some have in previous threads SPECIFICALLY argued that that is NOT the way for Martin to write faster or that "chaining him to his desk" (ironically their specific words echoing George's in his latest blog) would be ineffective and that George just does not "work that way." But now that Martin himself in one of his previous blog entries acknowledges that an uninterrupted day free of distractions led to a very satisfying day of work on Dance the mood seems to have turned.

I still have a hard time believing that there remains a significant group of people who refuses to accept that the slow rate of new books in this series is directly and significantly related to Martin having an increasingly large number of things on his plate. Yes, there are other factors contributing to the slow writing but it seems obvious to me that the MAIN thing is he simply hasn't been putting as much time and focus on Feast for Crows and Dance with Dragons as they deserved. Any non-biased reading of his blog entries will reveal this. How else am I supposed to interpret his statement that there have been many "productive" days in the past but that none of those days had anything to do with writing Dance with Dragons? I challenge anyone here to go to his website, read his blog on April 21 2007 and come away thinking that all these distractions played "only one part" of the delays and problems we've seen these past 7 years. I guess it's only me but I came away after reading:

It was the most productive day I've had in months, at least where DANCE is concerned (I have had very productive days working on the WILD CARDS, dealing with contracts and subrights, approving artwork and design and giving notes about some of the spinoff projects, and the like, but that's a different thing). One thing that helped that happen was that yesterday, for whatever reason, the world left me alone. The phone never rang. No one came knocking on my doors. None of my friends dropped in unexpectedly. I had no doctor's appointments, no dinner dates, nothing on my calendar but work. I did not even go out for my usual daily walk to get some exercise in.

. . . thinking these distractions are the MAJOR part of the problem. He'd have plenty of time to go to the doctor, exercise, and go on dinner dates without the incessant contracts, cons, and licensing agreement meetings.

And we're suppposed to think what exactly after reading this on April 27th 2007 a scant SIX DAYS (that's less than a WEEK) after his productive run?

Unfortunately, the last two days have been less productive, at least for DANCE. A major crisis erupted on another front, and I had to spend most of my time dealing with it. Wish I could say it was all settled, but no, it drags on, and becomes increasingly unpleasant. You know, there are times when I love writing and there are times when it's agony... but it's the business side of this profession that can really drive you mad.

It seems obvious that the cause of his less productive time was directly related to the "business side of this profession."

My frustration with Martin is that I do believe he is one of the best fantasists writing today but watching this nonsense is akin to seeing Jerry Rice running his routes half way or Michael Jordan taking quarters off during games. It's like watching Shaquille O'Neal have the potential to be the most dominant center of all time and then consistently show up to training camp during his years with the Lakers 30 pounds overweight and then coast through the regular season slowly playing his way into competitive shape in time for those playoff runs.

It's hard to respect sports stars who spend more time making commercials and rap albums than focusing on their game which shows during the regular season and postseason. The same can be said of authors who spend too much time marketing and living off the rewards of their past successes while a magnum opus lies unfinished and the potential in the series still unrealized. And that perception of Martin whether fair or not is what is being communicated via his website when my friend (who I got hooked on Song of Ice and Fire years ago) finally finished Feast and finally decided to browse through www.georgerrmartin.com. His response? He called me up that night and asked me if George was still even working on Dance since all he saw were announcements and updates on licenses and unrelated projects.

In any case, I shouldn't get so upset or emotional about it but I love the series as much as anyone here and it is very frustrating. In all truthfullness, I have very low expectations for Dance with Dragons as I expect it to be nothing but more setup similar in tone and pacing to Feast for Crows. I'm looking forward to the escalation and ratcheting of tension in Winds of Winter and the climax of Dream of Spring but those books obviously can't be written until Dance is finished.

I know there are plenty of other good books to read and movies to see and things to do but I find that argument to be flippant and even worse misses the point. I can and DO read other books and have plenty of other things to occupy my time but that doesn't change the singular genius of George Martin's writing and the fact that I can't shake the nagging feeling that it is being slowly wasted by these execrable distractions and business meetings. There's plenty of time to read lesser books and watch lesser movies but there's only so much time for George to share his writing with all of us and by God, I wish he'd stop wasting it.

As for Jordan, he actually doesn't interact with his fans as much as people think. Certainly he doesn't routinely go to Cons. Most of the time, the only way to meet him as at his book signings.

I remember for much of the nineties and even the early years of the millenium there was NO WAY to communicate with him short of writing letters to Tor. Just a few years ago (2005 or 2004??) he began answering questions through his site on Tor and then became much more heavily involved with his blog hosted on Jason's site.

Then he became very ill of course and after a few heavy updates only averages one open letter of about a page or so every month which I would hardly call excessive.

In any case, despite speculation none of us really have any idea where either Jordan or Martin is at their respective novels. The fact that he wishes to publish the Prologue (or rather his publisher) so early in August of this year is a bit odd. I'm uncertain why the urgency or hurry. As I posted elsewhere the Prologue is usually published and made available in ebook form a few months before publication of the full novel. The marketing seems straightforward enough, you release the Prologue to build up advance buzz and get fans' appetites whetted. Then the main novel a month or two later. It seems to have worked well enough the last few releases.

Releasing the Prologue this year when Memory of Light won't even see publication until Spring 2009 at the earliest? What's the point of that? All the buzz generated this year will be a distant memory if and when the full novel is brought out in TWO years. It just doesn't make any sense unless Memory of Light somehow is coming along well enough to be released sometime next year and Tor doesn't want people to forget about the series until then.

I'm picking Dance with Dragons first because if George can't finish a book already partially written ahead of a guy dying of an incurable illness and recovering from a bone marrow transplant and toxic chemo to boot . . . well he should hang his head in shame. Any other result would simply be inconceivable to me.

Dennis

[Werthead]

I'm starting to think that George may have oversold the advantage of having 30% of ADWD in hand when he completed AFFC. After finishing AFFC he reported rewriting every single Jon chapter in that batch, and then the Daenerys chapters he put up on his blog or read out at cons seemed to be different from the Dany chapters we were hearing about pre-split, suggesting he'd rewritten some or maybe all of them as well, and then we started hearing about possible structural changes, that he was bringing in Bran (who wouldn't have been in the pre-split AFFC at all) and giving more chapters to Jon and Tyrion and the new POV etc.

In other words, I strongly suspect (I have no proof, just a feeling based on the above) that GRRM has rewritten most or all of that material left over from AFFC, and little usable of that material remains in its completed form. At best, it has shaved a few weeks or months off from the writing; at worst, GRRM has effectively had to write the whole book from scratch (70% new material and totally rewriting the other 30%). If so then where we are now - 18 months from AFFC - isn't too bad at all if we are expecting an 800-900 page novel of all-new material to be published 24-36 months after AFFC came out.

The biggest problem, and I think the sole biggest cause of complaint about progress on ADWD, is that note at the end of AFFC about ADWD following 12 months after AFFC's publication, when it became clear even before the book came out (because of GRRM's apparently expanded touring schedule) that it was a very optimistic projection, to say the least.

Conversely, Jordan sounds very optimistic about AMoL, and his publishers putting up the prologue this August sounds interesting. Perhaps they are feeling they can bring forward publication of the book? Another possibility - although RJ said he wouldn't allow this to happen - is that the book's huge size is already telling and Tor have already decided to split it in two? If that is the case, we could have AMoL I in early 2008 and AMoL II a year later.