The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III)

[Mezeh]

Sarella, it seems that we have some agreement on the last point so let start from there. Rhaegar could not have expected that his father would kill Rickon and Brandon Starks. Yet he obviously could expect Starks outrage over the matter and should have though about reconciliation with them. Marriage, particularly if it took place before the escape on one side proves that Lyanna wasn’t a victim of adduction but a willing part of it. For later public marriage he still would need to seek Lyanna relatives consent. But if he would announce that they are already married and have a witness to it Starks actually would have nothing else but to accept the fact. If Lyanna would be already pregnant on the time of announcement this clearly would be the best solution for them and would stop any attempts to cancel the marriage.

Now about Rhaegar alive or dead matters. Once again he didn’t expect that his action would cause a civil war. Alone they were not enough reason for rebellion. So he clearly didn’t expect to die at the beginning. Later when he went to war he surely was in danger but he wasn’t able to announce his marriage not to offence Dorne even more. Could his marriage still be proven in the case of his death? Why not? If three of Kingsguard including commander knew about it they surely would be believed. So their guarding Lyanna were his insurance in the case of his own death. But if he didn’t married Lyanna then in the case of his death Lyanna and her child would really be in a grave danger and without of any legal protection. So if Rhaegar cared about Lyanna he should have married her. By a little that we know about Rhaegar he was a man of duty and responsibility so it much more likely that he indeed married Lyanna then he did not.

And the last. You assume that Rhaegar was about to throw Aerys after war by the words he said to Jaime before the Trident. You conclusion is too hasty. The fact that Rhaegar said it openly to a man that wasn’t his close confidant is evidence that he didn’t plan any non legal action like plot or coup. We could only guess what he had in mind to take crown from Aerys, to remove him from power of just to limit it. There are some possibilities all of them fail under definition “changes’.

[Mezeh]

Sorry I forgot about Aerys part. Sarella first there was no evidence that Aerys planned to burn Red Keep. It was mentioned that he planned to burn the city. Second and more important the fact that he was going to kill his relatives and himself when he thought that they are all doomed to die anyway doesn’t mean that he would harm them in normal condition.

[Sarella]

Mezeh, can I just clear something up before responding?

Are you saying that Rhaegar married Lyanna before Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon? At a point where he didn't know his actions would cause war?

[Sarella]

Sorry I forgot about Aerys part. Sarella first there was no evidence that Aerys planned to burn Red Keep. It was mentioned that he planned to burn the city.

Aerys said "let him (Robert) be king of cooked meat and charred bones." The key words are here: "let him be king". Why would Robert be king if Aerys and Aegon are alive and safe from the wildfyre within the walls of The Red Keep?

Second and more important the fact that he was going to kill his relatives and himself when he thought that they are all doomed to die anyway doesn’t mean that he would harm them in normal condition

So we are debating Aerys degree of madness. Well, we have to agree that Aerys was mad enough to kill his warden of the north and heir by commanding a trial by combat and naming fire his champion. But you don't think he was mad enough to kill the Stark woman and her spawn? I have to disagree. But we are going to get nowhere trying to debate just how mad Aerys was.

[Mezeh]

Mezeh, can I just clear something up before responding?

Are you saying that Rhaegar married Lyanna before Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon? At a point where he didn't know his actions would cause war?

I stated before that IMHO marriage most probably took place in Harenhall before their escape.

[Mezeh]

So we are debating Aerys degree of madness. Well, we have to agree that Aerys was mad enough to kill his warden of the north and heir by commanding a trial by combat and naming fire his champion. But you don't think he was mad enough to kill the Stark woman and her spawn? I have to disagree. But we are going to get nowhere trying to debate just how mad Aerys was.

I only state that we have no indication that he was mad enough to kill his grandchild in normal conditions. Besides Aerys condition deteriorated badly during the war.

[SFDanny]

Sarella, I guess I'm not clear in my responses to you. I'll try again. Although, I'm glad to see we have some agreement on some things, but we still are far apart on others. Let me go over some of the disagreements, and I apologize for the length of my reply.

On the use of the dialog about Robert's character between Ned and Lyanna. I don't have a problem with using this, and the evidence we have from Lyanna's conduct at the tourney at Harrenhal, to make a judgement that Lyanna would stick up for herself in a polygamous marriage. I just have been trying to make the point we have no idea what the ground rules of such a marriage between the three were. That is not an outrageous point, and I’m certainly not “twisting†anything. Tell me if you know what Elia felt about Rhaegar having a second wife. I sure don't. I don't know what Rheagar or Lyanna expected in this marriage either.

My guess, and it is only a wild guess, is that Elia and Rheagar were in an arranged marriage and they did not feel the love towards each other that Rhaegar and Lyanna felt. In such a situation, I would guess that Rhaegar and Lyanna planned to be lovers as well as husband and wife, and Rheagar and Elia planned to only to continue their marriage as a formality. But again this is but a guess and it can't be anything but a guess because there is almost no evidence on the topic. And again, that doesn't mean the two examples of Lyanna’s strength of character aren't germane to her “sexual values†- as you point out - or concerning her thoughts on any other subject, but it only tells us she would look out for herself and try to do what she thought was right for herself and others. It is the going the extra step further, saying that Lyanna’s strength of character shows she wouldn’t get into a polygamous marriage, that I object to on the grounds of not knowing what her acceptance of such a marriage means in the specific example of Rhaegar, Lyanna, and Elia. I think that is a fair point, don’t you?

On the other hand, we do know a lot about what it means to be a bastard, and applying the same examples of Lyanna’s character we can make some logical assumptions about her attitude toward having her child condemned to this lowly status. That assumption, as you agree, is that she wouldn’t likely want her child born a bastard. It was not always clear from your posts that you thought this is a problem, but I’m glad to see you clarify it.

Where we also get into a disagreement seems to be on two other aspects of this question. First, the idea that though Rhaegar and Lyanna might have wanted their child to be legitimate they did not plan ahead because Rhaegar believed he would win and could set all things in order later. I think you take Rhaegar’s confidence and make far too much of it.

Rhaegar was indeed confident of his abilities and thought his children to be the fulfillment of a prophecy. He also planned to make changes regarding his father’s rule - what those changes entailed we don’t know. All of which would tell us he looks beyond the war and beyond the moment. It doesn’t tell us he is sure he will live through the war. He also knows, as a highly intelligent man and a skilled and experienced warrior, the hazards of battle. To make his confidence into something that ignores his intelligence and experience is a mistake in my opinion. Both things, confidence and realism about the possibility of his death in war, are not irreconcilably in opposition with each other. They can, and do, exists together in many individuals.

But more importantly the fact we know he is a man who does not just live in the moment would lend credibility to the idea that he would not just postpone a marriage because he was too busy having fun (they must have had some fun at the Tower of Joy, don’t you think?) or doing other important tasks to consider the consequences for his child if he or she is born a bastard.

Which brings me to our second point of disagreement on this topic. You take it as an article of faith that it would be so much better for Rheagar, Lyanna, and Jon if they married openly and therefore it makes sense they would have postponed the wedding until after the war when they could do so, while a secret wedding would do nothing for them. I disagree.

It is important to look at each character in time, place, and circumstance. For the two lovers the decision to run away surely tells us that an open wedding is not possible to start with. The King’s disapproval, the disapproval of the Martells, the Starks, and the Baratheons helps to explain the situation and why they did not wed openly from the beginning. They are forced to take the “Tyrion/Tysha†road if they are to wed because the approval of either father is not forthcoming. This is not just a case of respecting or not respecting dear old dad’s wishes, but rather if dad is the King or your Lord you are expected to follow his orders in the matter. Examples of the Blackfish, Arianne, etc. spring to mind. Quite possibly in this patriarchal society, if dad is just dad and a penniless beggar, one is still expected to follow his wishes.

Now, take it forward in time one more step and look at what each scenario gains them. A open wedding is still not possible as they sit at the Tower of Joy for all the same reasons, and trying to do so would not change the reality of the rebellion - Robert and Ned are not going to stop their war simply because they hear Rhaegar and Lyanna are married. If they marry in secret, obviously this also changes nothing, except if we accept the idea that either of them believes one has to be married to have sex. There is no indication this is the case, however. So at this point a marriage, hidden or open, really gains them nothing from the perspective of two hidden lovers.

But now interject a pregnancy into the equation. We both agree that Rhaegar and Lyanna are the type of people who would want their child born “on the right side of the blanket.†How to solve this need when they cannot openly wed at the time before all of the kingdom? A ceremony witnessed by friends and close confidants takes care of it.

However, you try to argue that this straightforward solution is a bad idea and they would recognize it as such because a open marriage and a royal decree eliminating the taint of bastardy after the war is so much better. The problem is that an open marriage and decree after the war is by no means certain. Rhaegar maybe confident in his abilities, but he is not a fool. His father is crazy as a loon but taking the throne away from him legally is not a simple thing. It is quite possible that if Rhaegar had been victorious at the Trident he would still have had Lyanna and child without any recognized status, and with enemies all around them. This leaves them with a choice. Marry in secret with witnesses to the marriage (a septon, Jon Connington, the Kingsguard, etc.) and have their child born as a legitimate member of the family by all custom accepted in Westeros, or do nothing but wait in hopes that Rhaegar ascends to the throne quickly and change what their lack of action has done.

Lastly, your argument about the consequences of a secret marriage is ill framed and off point. I see no real argument that under the best of conditions they would have expected a marriage performed for all to see combined with a royal decree legitimizing their bastard child, and a marriage performed in secret with few witnesses and announced later would have any different impact on their lives or the lives of their child. Their enemies either are already defeated or they are still waiting to do them harm under both circumstances. The only real difference is in a fancy ceremony and the need for the signing of a decree.

On the other hand, there is a huge difference under the less than best conditions between what already being married and being unmarried has on Lyanna and Jon. That can’t be argued. Assuming Rhaegar survives and does not take over the throne then Lyanna and Jon are condemned to the kind of life we both agree they would not want for as long as Aerys sat the throne. And if both Rhaegar and Aerys die, but the Targaryens remain in power with Aegon the heir, is their any reason to believe the Martells would want Jon legitimized? None at all. Lyanna and Jon would be alive but helpless. With a legitimate claim they have something to rally supporters and friends.

Now, if the worst of conditions happened, which turned out to be the case, it makes a tremendous difference in Jon’s claim to his rights as heir to the throne - provided he can prove who he is with some surviving witnesses to the events. Certainly, with the deaths of both Lyanna and Rhaegar they have lost all ability to help their son and he must depend on the mercy of others. Most parents would think about such things, and I believe these two did.

And by the way, the textual references that support the idea that they did are the ones I’ve been citing all along. The presence of the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy when their oaths would have them elsewhere if Jon is not a true born son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, and the character of both the parents supported by many textual references. As an aside, the dialog at the Tower of Joy has been cited numerous times in these pages by myself and others as proof of the reasons the Kingsguard was at the Tower of Joy, it is not something new I’m bringing into this discussion. Look at the old thread if you don’t believe me. Ned’s promise and the “bed of blood†have more to do with the existence of a child, true born or not, at the Tower - a related but slightly different topic. I’ve tried to make logical arguments based on these, but I don’t see a logical argument to be made that both Rhaegar and Lyanna were so convinced they everything would go their way, and they therefore would have no reason to think about or care enough whether their child was born a bastard. Rather this is adopting a position and refusing to budge from it in the face of considerable evidence.

edit: on the subject of "far away," I have never dismissed it. I have in fact written about how interesting of an idea Enguerrand has built on that one simple phrase. I've only pointed out that it can easily be interpreted to be a reference to the Tower of Joy being far away from the Trident, King's Landing, Storm's End, and Dragonstone. I just want more evidence before I accept the idea.

[Sarella]

Mezeh, let's say Rhaegar dies on The Trident, but the Lannisters stay out of the war. As soon as Lyanna hears of Rhaegar's death, she goes to Aerys in KL. At this stage Aerys knows Robert and Ned are marching to KL. He knows the full extent of the consequences of Rhaegar and Lyanna's fling. He has lost his eldest son because of the fling, and he is now facing the biggest threat the Targs have ever faced because of the fling. He is at the height of his madness - he is planning to burn the city. He has already killed Rickard and Brandon, and demanded Ned's head. He is NOT going to welcome Lyanna with open arms.

If he is going to behave in a way consistent with his past behaviour, he will wait until Ned and Robert arrive, then kill Lyanna and Jon in front of them.

It is a completely unfounded stretch to say he would keep Lyanna safe. This is the man who beats and rapes his sister even before the deterioration he went through during the war.

[Sarella]

I stated before that IMHO marriage most probably took place in Harenhall before their escape.

Well then, why the secrecy? They are going to have to go public eventually. And Aerys was not a known danger at that point. If Rhaegar knew the Starks would be pissed, as you say, then why didn't he go to them and tell them straight away, after the tourney at Harrenhal?

If he knew it would piss them off, why didn't he seek their permission in the first place? Fear of them saying "no" isn't going to stop him. If they say "no" THEN perhaps he could run off and do it secretly.

[the silent speaker]

Mezeh: if Rhaegar and Lyanna married at Harrenhal, why did Lyanna breathe no word of this to her family when they get back to the north? Lyanna wasn't abducted straight from the tourney.

Sarella: if Rhaegar and Lyanna did not marry, then what evidence exists that she wasn't abducted against her will?

[Sarella]

SFDanny, about Lyanna's comments.

As I have said, I have no idea about anything to do with the Elia, Rhaegar and Lyanna triangle. But, we know for fact that Lyanna wasn't willing to marry Robert and have him sleep with other women. That COULD give us some indication on how Lyanna would feel about Rhaegar sleeping with Elia. I'm not saying it DOES, I am saying it COULD. You are saying it DOES NOT give us any indication. That because we don't know anything about the ERL Triangle, Lyanna's comment about Robert doesn't tell us anything about how she would feel about sharing a man. That IS twisting!

What I am trying to say is that because we don't know anything about the ERL Triangle, we don't know ANYTHING about what Lyanna's comment could mean for that triangle. We don't know that it means she wouldn't accept it, and we don't know that it means she would accept it but would stick up for herself. We just don't know. For that reason I am happy to dismiss it and focus on other things. However if you are going to continue to say it means she would "accept it but stick up for herself", then I will insist it means she "she would stick up for herself and wouldn't accept it".

And again, that doesn't mean the two examples of Lyanna’s strength of character aren't germane to her “sexual values†- as you point out - or concerning her thoughts on any other subject, but it only tells us she would look out for herself and try to do what she thought was right for herself and others.

This is a key example of the "twisting" I am complaining about. You are taking what Lyanna said about Robert to mean ONLY that she was strong in character. Very convenient. I could just as easily take it to mean ONLY that she wouldn't be content for her man to sleep around.

It is the going the extra step further, saying that Lyanna’s strength of character shows she wouldn’t get into a polygamous marriage, that I object to on the grounds of not knowing what her acceptance of such a marriage means in the specific example of Rhaegar, Lyanna, and Elia. I think that is a fair point, don’t you?

One, that isn't my argument. And two, there is no extra step in my argument, yet there is one in your's. Observe:

My argument...

Fact: Lyanna wasn't content to marry Robert and have him sleep with other women.

Speculation based on that fact: Lyanna may not have been content to marry Rhaegar and have him sleep with another woman.

Caveat: Because we don't know what the ERL Triangle would be like, we can't really conclude anything about what Lyanna would have thought about the polygamous marriage from her comment about Robert.

Your argument...

Fact: Lyanna wasn't content to marry Robert and have him sleep with other women.

Speculation based on that fact: Lyanna was strong of character and stood up for herself.

Speculation based on the fact: Even though Lyanna definitely wasn't content for Robert to sleep with other women, the case was likely different with Rhaegar (!!!).

Further Speculation based on the above speculation: Because we don't know anything about the ERL Triangle, it is pretty safe to say Lyanna would have accepted it (!!!), and stood up for herself within it.

I have really tried to understand your argument, so let me know if any of those were strawmen. If there are any then they were definitely not intentional, but indicate that I don't understand your argument. The exclamation points come after the parts that I consider huge leaps in logic and that aren't supported by the text!

From the rest of your post I see that you mostly understand where I am coming from with the Rhaegar planning ahead issue, and the Jon bastadry issue, and that is fantastic. Alas, we haven't reached that point yet on the Lyanna's comment about Robert issue .

[Sarella]

SFDanny, about the secret marriage.

If everything goes to shit and Rhaegar loses the war, Lyanna and Jon are screwed, secret marriage or no. The secret marriage would do nothing for them. The evidence of this comes from exactly what happened it the book. There is no disputing that, and I don't think you are disputing that, I am just making it clear.

If things go well, and Rhaegar wins the war, he can marry Lyanna then (before she gives birth to Jon) in sight of everyone. If things go well, there was no need for the secret marriage.

I am not saying that it would be better to risk no marriage, in hope of a public marriage. I am saying that win or lose, the secret marriage does nothing for them. So why have one? The only reason (and it is a lame one) is so in their minds, there was no risk whatsoever that Jon would be born a bastard. It wasn't to ensure his rights because if they won, his rights were ensured anyway. If they lost, his rights weren't ensured, no matter what.

The fact that Jon has ended up with none of his rights shows that Rhaegar didn't plan ahead. Or if he did plan ahead, he planned to win. I really don't see any way that can be disputed. Sure, he may have married Lyanna, and had witnesses, but they are either dead, don't know about Jon, or have been content to deprive Jon his rights all this time. Great work, Rhaegar! He really must have planned ahead for it to turn out like that!

Now, I don't believe Rhaegar was stupid. That is why I am making so much of his confidence. The only way it could all turn out as it has (with Jon having none of his birthrights), is if (1) Rhaegar was stupid, or (2) Rhaegar was confident he would win. I prefer option (2) but would just as easily accept option (1) if presented with evidence.

Even though previously I've said he probably planned to legitimize Jon, I have actually changed my mind. I think he planned to marry Lyanna before Jon was born. He had nine months, after all.

The benefits of a public wedding are only a minor point and my argument certainly doesn't rest on it. All I am really saying is that if Rhaegar expected victory (which there is pretty good evidence he did), then he would probably prefer a public wedding than a secret one. That would be one reason to wait.

But now interject a pregnancy into the equation. We both agree that Rhaegar and Lyanna are the type of people who would want their child born “on the right side of the blanket.†How to solve this need when they cannot openly wed at the time before all of the kingdom? A ceremony witnessed by friends and close confidants takes care of it.

Yes, as I've already said, I completely agree that it took care of them wanting their child to be born “on the right side of the blanket.†But it achieved nothing else. It didn't ensure Lyanna and Jon's rights in any way shape or form.

However, you try to argue that this straightforward solution is a bad idea and they would recognize it as such because a open marriage and a royal decree eliminating the taint of bastardy after the war is so much better. The problem is that an open marriage and decree after the war is by no means certain.

I agree. What I am trying to say is that neither is a secret one. Neither are certain, don't you agree? A public wedding requires that Rhaegar win. A secret marriage also relies on Rhaegar winning, because if he loses, the secret wedding does nothing for Lyanna and Jon. I mean, just look what happened!

Since both scenarios only work if Rhaegar lives/wins, we have to decide which is the best if Rhaegar did indeed live/win. If Rhaegar lived/won, would it be better to have already had a secret marriage and just plonk Lyanna on the throne next to Elia, or better to have a public one for everyone to participate in and accept?

Assuming Rhaegar survives and does not take over the throne then Lyanna and Jon are condemned to the kind of life we both agree they would not want for as long as Aerys sat the throne. And if both Rhaegar and Aerys die, but the Targaryens remain in power with Aegon the heir, is their any reason to believe the Martells would want Jon legitimized? None at all. Lyanna and Jon would be alive but helpless. With a legitimate claim they have something to rally supporters and friends.

Good points! I have two problems, however:

1. All evidence indicates that Rhaegar was expecting to win the war AND deal successfully with Aerys. You are yet to provide any real indication that this was not the case. So if Rhaegar expected to win, none of the above scenarios would have entered his mind.

2. Lyanna's strength of character. If Lyanna thought for a second that she might end up in one of those situations, she would not have run off with Rhaegar, married him, or become pregnant by him. Being someone who sticks up for herself, she wouldn't have risked that for herself and she wouldn't have begot a child and risked subjecting him/her to that. Since she did run away with Rhaegar and have his child, none of the above scenarios could have entered her mind.

[Sarella]

Sarella: if Rhaegar and Lyanna did not marry, then what evidence exists that she wasn't abducted against her will?

1) That at the tourney at Harrenhal Lyanna shed some tears when Rhaegar sang a song. Assuming they weren't tears of fear or disgust, one might conclude that Rhaegar moved her.

2) That Ned doesn't harbour any ill feelings in his recollections of Rhaegar. In fact, they are quite favourable. Not the kind of thoughts you'd have about the man who kidnapped and raped your sister.

That is really all. And to tell the truth, I am not certain that it wasn't an abduction.

[Mezeh]

Mezeh: if Rhaegar and Lyanna married at Harrenhal, why did Lyanna breathe no word of this to her family when they get back to the north? Lyanna wasn't abducted straight from the tourney.

Lyanna most probably wasn’t abducted at all but went with Rhaegar by her own will. And where did you find reference that she was taken from her way to the north?

[Morrigan]

As others pointed out, a public marriage would not have worked at all. The disapproval of all the great houses would be too strong.

And even if Rhaegar was foolish enough to be sure he'd win the war and come back to Lyanna and marry her, he could not be certain he'd have the time before Jon was born. Even if he expects to win at the Trident, Rhaegar doesn't know how long it'd take, plus all the time required to travel back to the Tower of Joy to his pregnant wife... Since a public marriage before the end of the war is out of the question, and waiting after the end of the war for a public marriage is too risky (Jon could be born long before that), the best (even if not perfect) solution to ensure Jon's legitimacy, in their mind, would be to marry in secret and hope they can sort it out later. But there isn't any evidence of any marriage at all. Perhaps they never had the time to get married, even in secret, and Jon IS still a bastard. Wouldn't that be ironic?

Of course, this didn't happen because not only did Rhaegar lose the war, Lyanna also died, and so did the Kingsguard and possibly any remaining witnesses. Then again, we don't know what new evidence will come out, if there are any witnesses left anywhere, or just people who might clue us in on what happened - Wylla, Howland Reed, Barristan Selmy, and possibly the letter to Varys.

In my opinion, the only way the truth of Jon's parentage can come to light (assuming R+L=J of course, married or not) is if Ned wrote that letter, and if Varys still has it, and he can bring that letter to either Jon himself, to Howland Reed, or maybe to Daenerys (she might be interested to know she has a living relative, bastard or not).

What I can't begin to speculate, though, is what the impact will be. Even if Jon isn't a bastard, which is far from certain, who will believe the truth, and who will care, other than Daenerys? Hmm.

[Morrigan]

Oh, and I have a question about legitimizing bastard... some have said that only a king can do that. But didn't Roose Bolton legitimize Ramsay Snow? Therefore, could Rhaegar have pre-emptively legitimized Jon, even if he wasn't the king? I suppose you have to be at least a lord to do that, and Rhaegar.... uh, he's the crown prince, and possibly lord of Dragonstone, though I forgot.

[Patrick Mallister]

kevan has tommen sign a paper legitimizing ramsay as part of the bargain with roose, i think its in a jaime or cersie pov in affc, when they mention that tommens favorite part of kingship is stamping the seal on the letters

[Sarella]

So basically, everyone is willing to buy that either:

1) Rhaegar was going to march into KL after the war and announce to everyone that he had secretly married Lyanna Stark and had a trueborn son by her during the war. Everyone was just going to accept this. Even though many of their friends and family died during the war because of Rhaegar and Lyanna's relationship. Even though Rhaegar already had a wife, and polygamy hadn't been practiced in hundreds of years. Even though much fuss was made over finding a (first) wife for Rhaegar, and resulted in the deaths of Lord and Lady Baratheon and the insult of great houses, including House Lannister.

2) In the case of Rhaegar's death, Lyanna and Jon's rights would be ensured by this secret marriage. That is complete an utter crap. There are no benefits associated with being trueborn if you are just going to be killed or deprived your rights anyway.

[Sarella]

As others pointed out, a public marriage would not have worked at all. The disapproval of all the great houses would be too strong.

But the dissaproval will be less if the marriage is just forced on them?! They'd approve if Rhaegar just announced his second marriage?! Houses Stark and Baratheon may be pretty much wiped out by then, but how is House Lannister going to react do you think? After the insult they suffered when Rhaegar rejected Cersei, but then he goes and takes two other wives? And what about Tully and Arryn, who have suffered great losses from Rhaegar's foolishness. What about Martell and all the houses of Dorne?

And even if Rhaegar was foolish enough to be sure he'd win the war and come back to Lyanna and marry her, he could not be certain he'd have the time before Jon was born.

Yeah, it isn't an ideal situation, but in that case he could just legitimize Jon.

Since a public marriage before the end of the war is out of the question, and waiting after the end of the war for a public marriage is too risky (Jon could be born long before that), the best (even if not perfect) solution to ensure Jon's legitimacy, in their mind, would be to marry in secret and hope they can sort it out later.

Well, if both scenarios involve them hoping they can sort it out later, why is the secret marriage the better one? Don't tell me it ensured Jon's rights, because it didn't. Jon is deprived of his rights and would have been dead if it weren't for Ned. If Aerys still lived, Lyanna and Jon would both be dead. The only time they wouldn't be dead is if Rhaegar lived. In which case a public wedding after the war would be the better option.

But there isn't any evidence of any marriage at all. Perhaps they never had the time to get married, even in secret, and Jon IS still a bastard. Wouldn't that be ironic?

Yes, exactly. That would fit much better with GRRM's writing than Jon being true heir to the throne.

[SFDanny]

Sarella,

We aren’t that far apart concerning Lyanna being a second wife, if your last post is any indication. If you go back and read my posts, I think you will find I have never said that Lyanna’s character would mean she would accept a polygamous marriage under any circumstances. So the quotes around “accept it but stick up for herself†have to be your inaccurate paraphrasing of my comments. Rather my point is that Lyanna would likely “stick up for what she thinks is right for herself and others†under any circumstances. If the circumstances of being Rhaegar’s second wife imposed conditions on her she found dishonorable, I don’t doubt she would refuse them. As I’ve said we just don’t know that to be the case. That has been part of my position all along, and you can go back to read my old posts if you think differently. Given your mistaken characterization of my points, it is rather ironic that you keep repeating your charge of “twisting†- especially considering your last two items of “speculation†you ascribe to my argument. Be that as it may, your statement saying “[t]hat COULD give us some indication on how Lyanna would feel about Rhaegar sleeping with Elia. I'm not saying it DOES, I am saying it COULD.†is one that fits with my own statements.

Regarding the facts as they happened in the book (i.e. the worst case scenario) with Jon orphaned and the Targaryens overthrown, the only difference between us, as I see it, is that Jon has the “benefit†of legitimacy if the marriage takes place and without a marriage no real possibility of it even if the Targaryens are restored. Not that this does him much good with Jon totally in the dark about his mother’s identity and likely confused about his father’s. The only real difference for the future is if Daenerys restores Targaryen rule and he discovers who he is and can prove to her. Not that I think this is a likely outcome in the books. I’m betting Jon never sits the throne, regardless of his status as bastard or true-born.

I think we are at loggerheads over the word “ensure.†I think you are reading way too much into my use of the word. I don’t think a marriage, secret or no, ensures that Jon will get what is his right under custom and law. It only ensures the truth of his status, whether it is ever known or recognized by anyone. Waiting only leaves his status up to the course of future events that are uncertain at best.

I find your new stance about a planned wedding before Jon is born interesting. I think time concerns would make it impractical, as has been pointed out by Morrigan, but it at least has the benefit of viewing Rhaegar and Lyanna as thinking about marrying before their child is born. I do agree that there are no certainties, which I think is all the more reason for a wedding to take place before Rhaegar marches off to war.

This relates to your point that

All evidence indicates that Rhaegar was expecting to win the war AND deal successfully with Aerys. You are yet to provide any real indication that this was not the case. So if Rhaegar expected to win, none of the above scenarios would have entered his mind.

While I don’t object to the idea that Rheagar was a confident and capable man, I do think you go too far in using this to say “ none of the above scenarios would have entered his mind.†Confidence doesn’t equate to ignoring the possibility of losing or plans going awry, and it doesn’t mean one doesn’t plan what to do if such things happen.

With Lyanna, she did make those decisions, unless we buy the “kidnapping†story. She was just wrong in what she thought would happen. Certainly you can extend this to Rhaegar. I have no problem in agreeing that Rhaegar was wrong in his estimation of what would happen as well. One can think things will turn out one way, and still be aware they may turn out badly.

P.S. - I see you've added two new posts that aren't covered by this. I'll read them and respond later.