The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III)

[Guest Other-in-law]

Daenerys was born almost nine month after the Sack and GRRM stated that Jon is nine or eight month older then her. So he was born of about the same time as the Sack or maybe a month later. The last fits to the theory better since if Lyanna died of childbirth Ned needed time to reach her. A month could be however sufficient for that.

Ok, Fair enough. So why does any of it have to do with the possibility of a marriage?

[Mezeh]

Ok, Fair enough. So why does any of it have to do with the possibility of a marriage?

I don’t see any connection. IMHO if marriage took place it should be on the early stages of Rhaegar/Lyanna relations most probably even before they escaped together. I stated reasons above.

[Ran]

I wasn't clear. Enguerrand seemed to be suggesting that the war lasted years, and this would mean that Rhaegar could have married Lyanna at any time after he took an active part in the fighting. But it lasted one year, and Rhaegar did not take part in the fighting until the end (basically). There was no time for Rhaegar to go from fighting to marrying Lyanna and then back again to die at the Trident.

It is indeed entirely possible that he married her before he left her in the first place. I've no doubt about that.

The information regarding Jon's birth in relation to Dany's is here in the SSM.

[Guest Other-in-law]

I wasn't clear. Enguerrand seemed to be suggesting that the war lasted years, and this would mean that Rhaegar could have married Lyanna at any time after he took an active part in the fighting.

Ah, gotcha. I didn't read the context closely enough. I agree that he was only involved at the end and couldn't possiblyhave married by that point. I read his involvement as finally returning to KL, and then almost immediately riding off to the Trident to die, depending on how long it took his host to assemble and how far along they were by the time he got there.

[Enguerrand]

Enguerrand seemed to be suggesting that the war lasted years, and this would mean that Rhaegar could have married Lyanna at any time after he took an active part in the fighting.

Yes I thought the war lasted closer too two years given the time to assemble the troops, the number battles fought and the distances travelled, I recall Storms’ end being besieged for a year and thought would have taken some months for a royal army to assemble take the stormlands and encircle the castle.

Anyway my point was that medieval wars, at least in real life usually went on for years and decades. Sarella suggested that that it would have been better for Rhaegar to marry a preganant Lyanna officially after the war and I thought that seemed unreasonable since Rhaegar hardly can know how long the war will last.

[SFDanny]

The information regarding Jon's birth in relation to Dany's is here in the SSM.

Ran, I understand the quote about "eight or nine months" before Daenerys' birth as the time of Jon's birth, but what I don't understand is why some seem to push to the "nine" side of the equation? If Jon is born nine months before Daenerys, and therefore during the sack of King's Landing it means that Lyanna and her guard wait at the Tower of Joy for a month while she waits to die from childbirth related complications, right? This seems a very long time for her to be sick. It would make more sense if Lyanna's death takes place days at most after Jon's birth. Perhaps those who know more about "childbirth fever" can say something about the timeframe for the disease to run its course, but it seems a relatively quick thing if I remember correctly.

A month after the sack would fit nicely as well for the time necessary for Ned to travel to Storm's End and then to the Tower of Joy.

edit: I found this interesting site on puerperal fever.

Fever, puerperal: Fever that lasts for more than 24 hours within the first 10 days after a woman has had a baby. Puerperal fever is due to an infection, most often of the placental site within the uterus. If the infection involves the bloodstream, it constitutes puerperal sepsis.

emphasis added.

Assuming this is Lyanna's problem, and assuming Martin knows about this subject, it would seem that 10 to 11 eleven days prior to Ned's arrival is the earliest Jon could have been born.

[Ran]

SFDanny,

I said, "Jon seems to have been born more or less at the time of the Sack". GRRM says 8 or 9 months before Dany, something around there. I don't think 9 months precisely need be firm. But "around the time of the Sack" is as good a figure as any, taking "around" to mean "give or take".

Death from childbed sickness can indeed take place weeks after the initial birth, by the bye.

[SFDanny]

SFDanny,

I said, "Jon seems to have been born more or less at the time of the Sack". GRRM says 8 or 9 months before Dany, something around there. I don't think 9 months precisely need be firm. But "around the time of the Sack" is as good a figure as any, taking "around" to mean "give or take".

Death from childbed sickness can indeed take place weeks after the initial birth, by the bye.

Thanks, Ran, for the clarification. Also take a look at my edit to the post above. If it's right, "weeks" seems too long a time.

[Sarella]

I've never said, "they would wait until they were discovered before moving their king to safety!" or anything remotely like it. I merely pointed out some very reasonable explanations for why they are still there when Ned arrives. If you disagree with those points kindly deal with them as I made them.

You said that the KG not seeing Ned coming could be a reason they hadn't left the TOJ. This implies that if they had seen Ned coming, they may have moved, yes? What I am saying is that it would be stupid of them to wait until they see someone coming to move. They know it is only a matter of time until someone comes. By "discovered", I meant "saw someone coming", which is what you were saying.

(1) do we know the timing of the birth? I don't think we do. All we know is that Lyanna screams "Eddard" as the battle rages and he finds her afterwards in a "bed of blood." That would tell us that she is not likely to have given birth too much earlier if she is still in a bed that gives evidence of her giving birth. It's also possible, and even likely, that the blood is from the complications from childbirth and not the birth itself, but even then how long has it been from the birth if she is suffering from such complications? Days, at most? The point being, if there is a difficult birth, and perhaps pregnancy, Lyanna isn't going to be traveling anywhere when she is close to delivery. This could be one reason they have not left the Tower of Joy. Agreed?

No. As I've already said, they can leave one KG with Lyanna and send two away with Jon or vice versa. The safety of their king is paramount.

(3) We know almost nothing about the location of the Tower, other than it has the Mountains of Dorne at its back. The route to it could easily be such that it both makes it possible to come upon the Tower in relative secrecy, and that it is not easy to leave. Envision a mountainous path that winds through the hills and I think you can see what I mean. We just don't know enough to say if such could be a reason the Kingsguard are still there, but you can agree that it could be a factor, can't you?

It could be, but it could also be as easy as pie to leave. There is no textual evidence one way or the other.

(4) If there is no wet nurse at the Tower then the Kingsguard may well have depended on Lyanna to feed her newborn child. Taking it away without his or her mother would endanger the child. Not outrageous?

I thought we both agreed Wylla was there?? And anyway, the fact that Ned manages to take the child away without the mother indicates to me that any other man could have too.

What it shows is that he planned for very capable and trustworthy people to take care of their safety while Rhaegar was not around.

I've already explained how this could only have been a temporary measure. It did nothing for Jon after Rhaegar died.

This is only true if there is no marriage and Jon is a bastard AND they receive the news and have time to reach King's Landing. A point I've been trying to make to you for some time now. By the way, it doesn't mean they couldn't take Lyanna and/or Jon with them, it only means they have a responsibility to Aerys that is first and foremost in their vows. Which doesn't mean they can't trust Jaime and the defenses of King's Landing to do their job while the three of them provide protection to one of the royal family.

There are many circumstances in which the KG would be forced to abandon Lyanna and Jon, even if Jon is trueborn. What if Rhaegar is taken captive at The Trident? What if Robert lays seige at KL and the royal family are starving (time doesn't factor in here - seiges often last a very, very long time).

You are so quick to have the KG trust Jaime and the defenses of king's landing with the majority of the royal family, but won't allow that they could have trusted Willem Darry and an escape to the free cities with Viserys.

Again they only have to go to Aerys if they know about the danger to him in time. Given that the sack happens because Aerys opens the doors to Tywin there is no reason to think this did not happen before they could do anything.

I wasn't talking about the sack, I was talking about a myriad of other circumstances in which the KG would be forced to abandon Jon and Lyanna.

This is a well rounded plan. Not one that worked, but a sound one nonetheless.

Once again, it is only a good plan if Rhaegar lives. Show me convincingly how it could have worked if Rhaegar died, and I'll agree that Rhaegar planned for the case of his death.

He is telling Ned that he will defend his charges from him and he will not abandon his newborn king to go anywhere. The prohibition against "fleeing" is all about abandoning his king, not about abandoning a location or refusing to ever retreat even when it would safeguard his charge.

What evidence do you have that that is what Gerold meant?! He could have meant any number of things. If that is what Gerold meant, why didn't he say "the KG do not abandon their duty", or "the KG guard their king no matter what." Instead, he said "the KG do not flee". Yet you think that could mean that the KG do sometimes flee?

[Sarella]

Well, in my scenario he didn’t. And I think there are reasons other then pride they make a stand before the tower. If it's just a futile pointless gesture, as you suggest, it's poor storytelling.

You mean poor storytelling, like when Aragorn rides out with Theodin at Helm's Deep?

And it was a futile pointless gesture either way, whether or not Jon is trueborn.

I believe Rhaegar kept the Lyanna affair hidden from Aerys because he would disapprove and had the power to interfere with Rhaegar’s plans.

I don’t think he feared that he would chop Lyanna and his child up in little pieces and serve them with a nice chianti.

Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon because he perceived that they challenged his authority. And Ned was to be seized because of fear he would seek revenge. I’ never saw it as an attempt to exterminate the Stark family.

I agree that at first it may have just been to avoid Aerys' interference. But after he has killed Rickard and Brandon, and after the war has begun as a result of Rhaegar and Lyanna, is Rhaegar really going to trust Aerys with Lyanna and Jon?

[the silent speaker]

No barring of any gates, no restraint of Lyanna's freedom evident at all.

Come on. Are you seriously suggesting they didn't block Ned from going in to Lyanna? They don't have to have closed literal wrought iron bars in his face.

My point was to Sarella and based on the assumption of "R+L=J."

One, nothing in what I said is actually incompatible with R+L=J; two, this thread is for discussing R+L=J, not assuming it; three, since you take it as your assumption, it's circular to then turn around and use it for proof.

If you want to ignore all the other clues of Lyanna going willingly with Rhaegar, I guess you could read it that way.

There are no such clues. There is not a shred of evidence that Lyanna wasn't kidnapped except a refusal to believe that nice wonderful Rhaegar could do such a thing.

[SFDanny]

Come on. Are you seriously suggesting they didn't block Ned from going in to Lyanna? They don't have to have closed literal wrought iron bars in his face.

Stopping Ned from going to Lyanna is very different from stopping Lyanna from going anywhere. There is plenty of proof for the former and none for the latter. Not just in the scene, but in the rest of the books all we have as evidence of kidnapping is Robert's statement and Bran's repetition of the old rumor. Hardly much to base a case on is it?

btw, I'm glad the "barring of the gates" is not meant literally, because there is no reference to it in my books. At least we appear to be reading the same material.

One, nothing in what I said is actually incompatible with R+L=J; two, this thread is for discussing R+L=J, not assuming it; three, since you take it as your assumption, it's circular to then turn around and use it for proof.

In reverse order, this is not circular reasoning. I just was responding to someone who I know accepts the "R+L=J" premise and didn't see the need to express the caveat that it had to be assumed. I don't deny this thread's purpose or the legitimate use of it by people who don't accept the thesis; I just don't see the need, however, to constantly say I'm assuming something for the sake of argument when both the person I'm responding to and I agree on the assumption. Lastly your statement that "I say they were there to imprison them" is incompatible with the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna are at the Tower of Joy of their own free will - which is what we are really disagreeing about, isn't it?

There are no such clues. There is not a shred of evidence that Lyanna wasn't kidnapped except a refusal to believe that nice wonderful Rhaegar could do such a thing.

Let's start with two quotes by Ned, one of which is referenced often, the other which is often overlooked:

For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not. (AGoT 320 US Hardback)

and

"Ah, Arya. You have a wildness in you, child. 'The wolf blood,' my father used to call it. Lyanna had a touch of it, and my brother Brandon more than a touch. It brought them both to an early grave." (AGoT 186 US Hardback)

These are very peculiar things for Ned to say and think if Lyanna is kidnapped and raped by Rhaegar. Ned thinks to himself that Rhaegar's character is not one to visit brothels. Very curious for a brother to think of his sister's rapist. He also tells his daughter that Lyanna's wildness brought her a early death. An even more curious thing to think of his sister. Is the kidnapper and rapist not to blame? Is he really saying his sister's wild actions brought on her rape and death? I don't think so. Ned expresses his love and admiration for his dead sister over and over in this series, and in no other instance does he even come close to blaming her for her fate. In fact, the quote makes much more sense if we read it as wildness in Lyanna eloping with Rhaegar. As in, "convention and the rest of the world be damned, I'm running off to marrying my true love and not the man my father tells me I must."

Now, next let's deal with the blue flowers. Why does Lyanna die holding on to the blue winter roses? If this is what her rapist gave her, why would she hold on to them until her last dying breath. Over and over, the message is that the flower is a symbol of their love, but you would have it a symbol of her - what? - her hatred of Rhaegar? That's what she clutches as she asks her brother to promise her to fulfill her deathbed wish? She knows Rhaegar is dead (either from the Kingsguard or Ned) so why does she hold onto the roses unless they symbolize her lost love?

Btw, all of the above are clues. Let's stop with that for right now, and if you want to go on about how there are "no clues" supporting Lyanna and Rhaegar being together voluntarily, we can go on for a long time.

[Sarella]

Of late I have been visualising the wedding at Harrenhal with Arthur, Ashara, Howland, and Jon Connington as witnesses. Believe it or not, I am actually willing to believe it took place. Particularly because of the scene where Mormont’s raven keeps saying “king†in front of Jon, and how Robb married Jeyne very quickly (1) for her honour’s sake, and (2) so that nobody could stop him. Also Robb’s attempt to placate the Freys could be how Rhaegar intended to placate the Martells (betroth Aegon and Rhaella to Arianne and Q. Or Jon to Arianne, if anyone was worried about the incest ).

However, a number of things just don’t sit right with me:

1. Witnesses. If Howland was present, why wasn’t Ned? Why didn’t Howland tell Ned? If neither Ned nor Howland were present, why the hell not? If both of them were, why didn’t Ned tell Rickard, Brandon or Robert?
   
2. Before her disappearance, how did Lyanna manage to not tell any of her friends or Benjen that she had married the hot young prince? Why didn't she openly tell Rickard or Brandon? It was too late for them to do anything about it and they would be worried about her whereabouts.
   
3. Why didn’t Lyanna tell Robert herself – it would have been the honourable thing to do, and we all seem to agree that Lyanna was honourable.
   
4. If secrecy was in order, why did Rhaegar so publicly name Lyanna QoLaB?
   
5. If the best explanation of the KG at the TOJ is the presence of their heir, why isn’t Varys suspicious when Ned shows up with a baby after killing the KG? Even without hearing the KG’s words from Ned’s fever dream, Varys ought to be able to work out that something isn’t right there.
   
6. If Rhaegar was as capable as we think, and planned everything well, why are all his children dead or denied their rights? Was he so obsessed with the prophesy that he bungled everything else? If he was so obsessed with the prophesy, would he even bother to marry Lyanna? I mean, they overlooked informing Lyanna’s family that she was safe, why not overlook marrying?
   
7. Jon has already had his NW vows tested when Stannis offered him Winterfell. Do we really want the repetitiveness of his vows being tested again when he hears he is a Targaryen?
   
8. If Ned could move Jon to safety, why couldn’t/didn’t the KG? GRRM has said the KG knew what was in the TOJ. To me that suggests Jon had already been born when Ned rode up to the TOJ.
   

SFDanny and others have, of course, already counterargued these points, and some of the counterarguments have been convincing. I am just not able to dismiss them all completely. They raise doubt in my mind that there was a wedding.

I also think that morally, the KG could have decided to stay and guard Rhaegar’s bastard instead of going to Viserys. They have been with Lyanna for some time now, and likely assisted in the birth of her child. Couldn’t it be that Lyanna being a young girl, and a charming one at that, and their involvement in the difficult birth or her child, compelled the KG to stay put? Could they really have abandoned them, mistress and bastard or no, in that situation?

Anyway, I will put the “Lyanna and Rhaegar were married†theory into my maybe box along with “Coldhands=Bloodravenâ€.

At least this debate has had more variety than the one over the colour of Coldhands' eyes!

[Mezeh]

Hi Sarella! I’m glad that you convinced at last. I will try to answer your questions.

1. Why Reed and not Ned? By the story of the Harenhall tourney told by Reed’s daughter it was “she wolf†that protected Reed from squires and claimed him a place of honor. This surely place Reed in her debt and maybe more. Lyanna surely knew that he owe her so Reed was a right man to ask such a favor and to keep a secret. Her brothers would be a bad idea before of after. Brandon was “wild wolf†and Ned most probably would disapprove as well.

2. Marriage needs consummation. Before consummation it could it could be canceled. So before Lyanna was pregnant (and therefore consummation proved) it was possible to cancel the marriage. The best was indeed to run away and let the people cool down a bit about the event then explain it out.

3. Robert would still want to kill Rhaegar. Besides it doesn’t seem that Lyanna cared much about him.

4. That was most probably the action to win her heart.

5. We don’t know if Varys was suspicious or not.

6. Do you remember the Marwyn quotation about the matter of prophecy? Or what prince Doran said about prince’s plans?

7. That is possible thought we don’t know if the Wall would still stand by then.

8. It was told many times that it possibly was Lyanna’s condition that slowed them. It is very dangerous to move woman on the last stages of pregnancy and if she become sick soon after she gave birth…

[SFDanny]

SFDanny and others have, of course, already counterargued these points, and some of the counterarguments have been convincing. I am just not able to dismiss them all completely. They raise doubt in my mind that there was a wedding.

Heh, doubt is good, Sarella. It makes us continually rethink a situation and sift through old assumptions for problems. I'm all for doubts. Hell, Jon may even be the child a Ned and Wylla. Not bloody likely, but it is possible.

With your list just let me add a few things. I think you raise points about a truly early wedding (around the time of the Harrenhal tourney) that make it unlikely. I think if Ned is around he would be at such a wedding, provided he hasn't tried to stop it already. I think Brandon's response may have a lot to do with the honor of House Stark and less to do with his thinking his sister is kidnapped by the crown prince. If Ned shares this way of thinking, Lyanna wouldn't likely include him. Also, if the wedding takes place later with a trip back to Harrenhal (as Other-in-Law has suggested) it removes Ned and Howland from the equation. Ned is in the Eyrie and Howland is likely back at Greywater Watch.

Also, I have to look it up, but I don't think Aegon is born by the time of the tourney. Elia may have been pregnant, but if Aegon is a year old at the time of the Sack of King's Landing, then he couldn't have been alive at the tourney. Why is this important? Daenerys vision at the House of the Undying shows us Rhaegar with Elia and the newborn Aegon with him saying "[t]here must be one more," and "[t]he dragon has three heads." I read this as saying he doesn't make the decision to have another child with Lyanna until after Aegon's birth. At the very least it places him with Elia and not at the Tower of Joy with Lyanna after the tourney.

Furthermore, your point about secrecy and the naming of Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty, I'm inclined to believe at this time neither of them know where their budding relationship will lead them. Otherwise, I think your observation would be right.

Lastly, with Jon's vows being tested, it maybe, as others have speculated, that just as Maester Aemon was tested three times, Jon will be too. Aemon's story maybe another one of Martin's notorious foreshadowing of what is to come.

[Mezeh]

We don’t know exactly when Aegon was born but I agree that this most likely happen before the tourney. Rhaegar was near Elia after the birth and it would be very difficult to place him near her after the tourney until he returned to KL just before the Trident.

Actually I’m wondering if Selmy kept something away when he talked about Elia health. He told the truth no doubt when he told that her health was always delicate but how could it possibly explain Rhaegar’s affair when despite her health she already gave to him two healthy children? Even if Rhaegar was told that Elia is unlikely to bear another child after Aegon was born why would he want more? He already had the heir. Well we know why - the dragon must have three heads but Selmy never stated it and if he didn’t knew or suspected then Elia health would be a poor explanation of Rhaegar’s behavior. So the question if Selmy knew more about Rhaegar’s possible motivation then he told?

[SFDanny]

We don’t know exactly when Aegon was born but I agree that this most likely happen before the tourney. Rhaegar was near Elia after the birth and it would be very difficult to place him near her after the tourney until he returned to KL just before the Trident.

The timeline doesn't fit. If Aegon is about a year old during the sack of King's Landing and the war lasts about a year, then we know from Martin that the Year of the False Spring was a "year or two" before the start of the war. Which means that Aegon is too young to have been born by the time of the tourney. All of which means that if Daenerys' vision is accurate it places Rhaegar with Elia at Aegon's birth only a few months before the start of the war and many months to over a year after the Harrenhal tourney. This leads me to think the "kidnapping" or "elopement" takes place after that time and any wedding would have to take place as well.

Actually I’m wondering if Selmy kept something away when he talked about Elia health. He told the truth no doubt when he told that her health was always delicate but how could it possibly explain Rhaegar’s affair when despite her health she already gave to him two healthy children? Even if Rhaegar was told that Elia is unlikely to bear another child after Aegon was born why would he want more? He already had the heir. Well we know why - the dragon must have three heads but Selmy never stated it and if he didn’t knew or suspected then Elia health would be a poor explanation of Rhaegar’s behavior. So the question if Selmy knew more about Rhaegar’s possible motivation then he told?

I agree, Mezeh, with the idea that Ser Barristan is going to be a source of more information about Rhaegar's actions and motives.

[Mezeh]

The problem with timeline is that we don’t know it exactly. Yet logically there should not be a long time span between the tourney and “kidnapping’. Winterfell was a proper place for Lyanna until she would marry. Of course she could visit tourney but after it she should have return to the North and to kidnap her from there would be nearly impossible. Yet by the time of “kidnapping†Brandon Stark is apparently still nor very far from the capital so he could rush there and demand Rhaegar’s blood. We don’t know where Ned and Robert were only that a bit later both of them would be at the valley.

And besides we don’t know exact Aegon age by the time of the Sack.

As for Selmy he told about Elia while still posing as Whitebeard so he could not then tell more then Whitebeard could possibly knew.

[Guest Other-in-law]

At least this debate has had more variety than the one over the colour of Coldhands' eyes!

It's also been much more civil. I hope mentioning it doesn't inspire any thread necromancy; that particular debate brought out the worst in me, I'm sorry to say.

[Ran]

Mezeh,

We don't need the timeline exactly. It's enough to have it in a very rough sense, and we already have this.

Yet logically there should not be a long time span between the tourney and “kidnapping’. Winterfell was a proper place for Lyanna until she would marry. Of course she could visit tourney but after it she should have return to the North and to kidnap her from there would be nearly impossible.

This is simplistic. People in Westeros aren't nailed down to one place. Lyanna could just as well have been invited to stay with the Whents (a wealthy, important family with a daughter who seems to have been about an age with Lyanna; and also bloodkin to Lyanna's future good-sister, so there's even something of an indirect family connection) following the tourney, for example. I suppose it's even possible that she was invited to be one of Elia's companions, and was at King's Landing when the "abduction" took place. We don't know precisely where she was, but we're pretty sure we know where she wasn't: in the North. The timeline doesn't work at all, because Brandon was on his way back to Riverrun to marry Catelyn when he learned the news. It would be insane for him to make his way to King's Landing, shouting for Rhaegar to show himself, if he just learned that even as much as a month ago Rhaegar showed up at Winterfell to abscond with Lyanna. The trip to White Harbor alone would have taken some weeks, and the sea journey to King's Landing weeks more.

So, we can safely establish that she was in the south.

Really, we know the timeline quite well, with a couple of months this way or that way for leeway. Thanks to GRRM's remarks and information in the books, we've fair ideas of just about everything we need to know to establish the timeline in a broad sense, insofar as it concerns the rough relationship between when important events relevant to Jon's birth and Rhaegar's absconding with Lyanna took place. We don't really need any more to discuss this issue, short of GRRM completely rejecting prior remarks and contradicting some internal statements (even the "year of the false spring" language gives the distinct impression that the year of the tourney was not the year of the war).