Tentative timeline

[Archmaester Marwyn]

Do you have any kind of reference for that?

Ser Gregor leaves his men a few days before Arya meets them at the crossroads. They sure haven't heard of the Oberyn-duel yet. That means Arya is at the crossroads ''before'' Oberyn dies.

The rape of Saltpans is after the Marge–Tommy wedding.

Yes, you are right.

[NYC Falcon]

Assuming a speed of 6 knots and a distance of around ~2,000 miles, it would take about 13 days to make the journey.

In Davos's last chapter, Davos tells Stannis that Joffrey is dead, according to the report of Salladhor Saan.

Distance from Dragonstone to Eastwatch by sea is at minimum 800 leagues* (2400 mi)=(2087 kt). Total sailing time at 6kts = 14.5 days. Mind it takes at least half a day to set sail and an additional halfday to disembark. So it's 15.5 days from Dragonstone to Eastwatch. Add 50 leagues (150 miles) overland on the North side of the Wall to Castle Black. Horses and men need rest and food. Add 2 days forced calvary march (American Civil War 6mph) to Castle Black to total 17.5 days. I would put that at the absolute fastest Stannis could have gotten to Castle Black from Dragonstone.

*I used the Wall=100 leagues as my measuring unit.

[Happy Ent]

total 17.5 days.

Excellent analysis! With the updated timeline Stannis has 20 days or more. I certainly feel much more comfortable with the changes resulting from the feed-back here. Thanks to all.

[Ran]

Using AutoRealm's nifty ruler function (you basically set what an arbitrary amount of pixels equals in whatever unit you're interested in), the straightest point-to-point course I can work out would indeed be about 2,000 miles.

Using the string function (same concept, but the line it measures is however one draws it) does tend to get around 2,400, though, and that's certainly a more realistic figure.

(BTW, AutoRealm is an free mapping program, obviously inspired by Campaign Cartographer. Not very pretty at all, but I've found it very useful for measuring distances. One nice feature is being able to put in a "push pin" and then always seeing how far away the cursor is from that pin in terms of miles. You can have in multiple pins as once, as well, which might be useful in trying to figure out distances that need to be covered to multiple locations from one specific location.)

[Jaxom 1974]

Oh dear, this is an EXCELLENT thread and a fabulous resource...much props to you all, and you, Ent...more fodder for your theory on which book really should have been split...

:bow:

[Ashara Stark]

December

15 (+/- weeks) Iron Captain

16 Drowned Man. Euron King.

300

January

1 Tyrion VIII. Sansa V. Joffrey dead.

I think the Iron Captain takes place after Joffrey's death. Asha tells Victarion that Bolton has been named Warden of the North, and in ASoS the decree giving him that title is sealed by King Tommen.

ASoS, page 819, US hardcover edition

"This is a decree of legitimacy for a natural son of Lord Roose Bolton of the Dreadfort. And this names Lord Bolton your Warden of the North." Tommen dipped, signed, dipped, signed.

AFfC, page 260, UK hardcover edition

"The Starks were not the only northmen. The Iron Throne has named the Lord of Dreadfort as Warden of the North"

[Happy Ent]

(Faulty post. Ignore.)

[Happy Ent]

I think the Iron Captain takes place after Joffrey's death. [...]

Your reasoning is certainly sound. The problem is that Damphair pronounced the Kingsmoot to take place "when the moon drowns and comes again" or something like that, and he says so several days before the Red Wedding. That gives us at most six weeks between the Red Wedding and the Kingsmoot. I cannot make that fit.

This of course assumes that the lunar month is the same as ours (which is based on the assumption that the female menstrual cycle is the same as ours, around 1 Earth month.)

A "way out" would be that the ships begin to gather on 16 December, and that this process itself takes weeks. Also, I am sure Bolton had his Wardenship pocketed while he was still at Harrenhal (as a promise for his part in the Red Wedding). So—royal seal or not—he might have been "named" Warden already in late November or December. Neither solution makes me happy.

To add to your perspective, Cersei's small council had no idea who ruled the Iron Isles. But by any account, the kingsmoot is many weeks, if not months, before the small council meeting, so there seems to be very little communication anyway.

[Ashara Stark]

You are right Happy Ent, probably there is not a perfect solution for making all those quotes fit. This may well be one of those timeline problems that make GRRM warn us against trying to fix a detailed timeline

[Lupigis]

This may well be one of those timeline problems that make GRRM warn us against trying to fix a detailed timeline

Even so, I think it's a very good idea to do this. It makes it so much easier to keep track of things!

[Ashara Stark]

I agree with you, Luipigis. I also think it is a very good idea

[Barba]

I have question. Brienne VIII chapter should happen after Jamie VII (17th or 18th may). I got no idea how do you plan to do this. It is the middle of may, and according to you, IIRC Brienne V was in middle of march in Maidenpool.

From Arya chapter in SOS, it took her 6-7 days from crossings inn to saltpants, so you should put put 10 days maximum between Brienne VI and Brienne VII.

If you put that Brienne was healing for a month(wich is too much IMO. she could barley move if she was laying for a month), it would still mean 20 days from maidenpool to Quietisle (what is still to much, even if you consider that they were stoping for confessions with Marlbrand).

So, do you think you could stretch timelines for brienne chapters a little

EDIT: 2nd post

OK, I think I might do something. It took arya 6-7 days from crossroads in to saltpants. Now, if you consider distances, they matches those from KL to Rosby, and those from Rosby to Duskendale.

So you could put Brienne I at 18 february

I don't think it is said anywhere that she traveled from rosby to duskendale 2 days. If you consider distances, it could be another 7 days: Brienne II: 25 th february.

You put 6 days between maidenpool and duskendale. I would put 10. So Brienne arives at maidenpool at 7 of March and leaves early in the morning (IIRC) at the same day that Rape of saltpants occures. we could presume it hapened in the afternoon, and Brienne was away from maidenpool at the time. Brienne III: March 7.

You put 9 days between leaving Maidenpool and killing shugwell. It could work Brienne IV: march 15

Another 10 days: they are back in maidenpool at March 25: Brienne V

If you consider map distances, Quiet isle is at least 8-9 days from maidenpool. If you consider they stopped with marbrand 3-4 times for confessions of smallfolk, you can stretch it to 11 days.

so we have April 5: Brienne VI

They leave quietisle at april 6.

They left Saltpants same day and in 7 days got to crossroads: Brienne VII: april 13 (considering the events that happened in the evening, it was probably friday 13th).

Ser ryman was killed may 7th days after 6 miles south of fairmarket.

Brienne VII we can put at May 8-9th (part in the cave)

It means 25 days of healing. It could work. she dosen't complain on her broken arm, so it probably means it healed, and it takes about 15 days for an arm to heal, and another 10 for therapy to stretch the muscles (we can assume jene knew how to do this).

P.S. this was the best i could do. Right now, by my teory, there was no way Ryman could get to fairmarket that fast, only if he traveed by boat at night, and another 1,5 day at foot. so if we assume he did this, and it it possible because there was 15-20 people with him.

This was the best I could do.

[Happy Ent]

Based on Barba's comments I have rethought the Brienne timeline completely, taking travel time into account. I am much happier with it now. Have a look. (Also, slight edits for the final Jaime chapters, to get Ser Ryman killed.)

Other things to think about:

Arya versus Sam

I now believe I was overly pessimistic about Arya's travel time by boat. The trip from Saltpans to Braavos might be pretty quick, maybe only days. (Sam thinks in one of his chapters that they might have reached Duskendale by now, and that ship sailed "days and days ago" according to Arya. So I think the Narrow Sea is really narrow.) My previous estimate is based on the loooong journey Sam had (which is maybe a month, possibly longer).

If Arya only travels for a week, I can make her events happen earlier, which would fit the Sam–Arya encounter much better.

The Wall versus everybody else

I would soooo like to push Sam's Wall chapter forward in time, by at least two weeks, if not more. Currently I have it just a few days after Tywin's death. It continues to give me headaches:

• The Small Council meeting in Cersei IV discusses Jon's ascendence to LC. That meeting is at least a month after Tywin's death. (Tommen–Marge wedding happens at least a fortnight later. Then Mace leaves and "has Storm's End invested" before the meeting.)
  
• Sam and Arya don't match by at least a month (even though I can fix part of that, see above)
  

The only reason to not immediately push Sam I to two weeks after Tywin's death is the fact that Jon is writing a letter to Tywin. So by the time of Sam I, news of Tywin's demise has not yet reached the wall. So my question is: what is the absolute longest time we can pretend that the Wall does not know this yet? I would like two weeks. Is that reasonable. (Remember, Stannis is there, and raven activity is very high, so communications seem to be up and running.)

[Uruk-hai]

I have absolutely nothing constructive to add - yet. Just wanted to give a thumbs-up to you all for doing this. For myself, it helps immensely to stay ....um, "grounded" I guess is the best word I can come up with.

HappyEnt (or anyone else), has a timeline for the entire epic been done?

[Ashara Stark]

So my question is: what is the absolute longest time we can pretend that the Wall does not know this yet? I would like two weeks. Is that reasonable. (Remember, Stannis is there, and raven activity is very high, so communications seem to be up and running.)

I have found this about flying speed of migrating birds on the internet:

A sustained flight of 10 hours per day in still air would carry herons, hawks, crows, and smaller birds from 100 to 250 miles, while ducks and geese might travel as much as 400 to 500 miles in the same period.

Source: Migration of Birds

According to Ran's estimates about the size if Westeros:

Westeros is about 3,360 miles from the Wall to the coast of Dorne. use the Wall as a scale for 300 miles.

So, the distance between King's Landing and the Wall is of about 2,400 miles (if i haven't made any mistake measuring it). For small birds, including crows, it would take at least 10 days to cover that distance, and it would take at least 5 days for bigger birds like geese to get to the Wall.

Westeros' ravens are supposed to be faster and stronger that our ravens but I doubt they can fly faster than geese; so I would say it is safe to consider that it takes at least a raven about a week to get to the Wall from KL. That would set the minimum time for the wall to receive news from KL, and then I would say that it is quite feasible that they didn't receive the news of Tywin's death until two weeks after it happened.

[Jaehaerys]

Nice post Ashara Stark!

[Gerold Hightower]

Does everybody believe the Titan's Daughter commutes regularly between Maidenpool and Braavos? I'd rather assume that Arya is on board when Brienne spots her in Maidenpool. I don't think it's reasonable to assume that she leaves Maidenpool for Braavos again less than a month after she arrived in Braavos from her previous journey.

[Barba]

So, what you're saying is: althrough we have had two Arya chapters in FFC, Chapter brienne5 is in fact happening by the end of SOS. It's her FIFTH chapter. So I don't think so. I remember that captain of titan's daughter was in a hurry when he arrived in Braavos. It was probably because he was heading back. Why? To make it for Brienne 5, and appear once again in one of the best epic stories in the world. :cool:

[Ashara Stark]

I'd rather assume that Arya is on board when Brienne spots her in Maidenpool.

I have lent my book, so i cannot check it out, but I think the Titan's daughter captain says to Arya that they are going to stay in Braavos for some time because they have a lot of things to do there. So, I assumed the same you did, that Arya was on the ship when Brienne sees her at Maidenpool.

Nice post Ashara Stark!

Thank you very much, Jaehaerys

[lokisnow]

This is a great thread, I've long ago made an excel spreadsheet keeping a very rough track of the timeline but this is much more interesting. I never took the individual effort to formalize with time references like you all have, I've just mainly gone by chapter order and rough landmarks (ie the Red Wedding).

However I think that Brienne just happens to run into the same ship, not the SAME VOYAGE that Arya was on; I have Brienne's first chapter taking place between Sam IV and V (at the end of Storm of Swords) which I have simultaneously linking up with the same time frame of Iron Captain and Drowned Man, respectively (I really like the idea of the two democratic elections happening about the same time). for reference I had put The Prophet chapter around the time of Sansa XVIII/Tyrion XXXII, but well before Davos had learned of Joff's Death.

I have Brienne V taking place around the timeframe of Arya XXX and Alayne I (Sansa XXIII), and there is substantial time between Arya XXVIII (her final ASOS chapter, which I have roughed in as about the same time as Jaime IX, his final ASOS chapter) and Arya XXX (a couple months I'd say) that would cover the time for the ship to go to Braavos, stay in port a month or so and then head back to Kings Landing (or even make two round trips if the narrow sea is a relatively short jaunt). I just don't see it as possible for those two timeframes to meet up, and I don't think it makes sense from a writing perspective--I think Martin is thinking in terms of AFFC timelines and not thinking of Arya and Brienne crossing paths between books, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he thinks that Arya is in Braavos a long time by the time he gets Brienne to meet up with the ship.

Here's one thing I was never sure on, I have the Prophet chapter happening well in the middle of ASOS timeline, but I really think the Prologue (PATE) chapter happens well after that, as though it were more closely attached to the AFFC main timeline than to the 'one-off' chapters timeline. Right now I have it about the same time (if not soon after) the epilogue of ASOS--that seems to make more sense to me and seems to fit with the firm news of the dragons arriving in Westeros along the main timeline at the start of AFFC.