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AGOT MAFIA 46


House Targaryen

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Elton John

Okay...this one is interesting. Cher and Mariah were the only 2 people to like the case on Elton. Britney also suspected Elton. All 3 of them are/were innocent if Cher is really the Finder.

Meanwhile, the following people trust Elton - Stipe, Jacko, MM, Bruce. I have a big problem with that list. Add Gwen, and you have all of our main suspects (if Cher is really the finder).

There are a lot of people tied in with Elton. I could very easily see him being evil.

Snipped the big part. Sorry to correct you on this, but I don't remember saying I trust EJ, and if I did I no longer mean it. I disliked the case on him and thought it was bad, but by no means did I say I thought him innocent.

Secondly, after looking at some things again with the knowledge that Mariah was innocent, my prime suspect is now Bruce, with Gwen reveiving honorable mention. Unfortunately, I have an early morning tomorrow and no time to do a proper reread or make a case, but I promise to do so the instant I return from work tomorrow. In the meanwhile, I will leave a few points: He said that I should be king, followed immediately by declaring me his #2 suspect, with only an evidence-light declaration of suspiscion by someone else in between. He's taken the middle ground all along, with the exception of his disagreement with JBJ never taking any strong stance. He has echoed the popular opinion and he has kept his post count fairly low. This also in addition to <somebody elses> comments. He should be seriously considered as a FM.

Good night, will check in briefly before I go to work but expect nothing major.

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Grrr, ok, yay for having a post preprepared but a big fat hiss to tonight's results.

Ok, hi. At Jon Bon's request, I waited until today to reveal the truth about this...it was hard watching Cher reveal, but on the other hand, I was hoping to have a good cover so I could investigate who I wanted.

I investigated Springsteen last night and he is...well, apparently I didn't have a good cover. I'm fairly certain Cher's the symp here, and that she blocked me. :(

You didn't have a good cover at all. This is why I didn't post my review of you. The conclusion was that you are the real Finder. Either that, or you've been planning a fake reveal since day 1.

See, the question was - why were you so concerned about posting a defense? Only made sense if you had a role (good or evil). But we knew you weren't BP, Martyr, or KM. So that only left Finder or somebody who wanted to fake a claim.

It was the obvious conclusion. Unfortunately, if you are the Finder, the FM clearly figured it out too.

The great thing now is that I'm kill one of you, and even if I'm wrong...the other one is going to be dead tomorrow. So at the very least, we won't get shut out. :P

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Provisional or not, thanks for making Bon Jovi King Madonna....I was really worried you'd make it Cher, but you're too smart for that. Er, also sorry for putting the pressure on you on night 1--I actually meant to investigate you that night, but retracted at the last minute because I realized you were very probably Kingmaker. (Gut feeling.) So I saved my investigation for tonight, but apparently my sucking up to Cher yesterday failed. I lose at acting.

Bon Jovi- look up. :P

I do have a code, btw. It's my dessert photos. Except I left one out, so I think it only spells 'FINDE'. The key is this:

FINDER--->GOMFRT (shift each letter one to the right on a standard keyboard)

the desserts were as follows:

Ganache

Orange tart

Mousse

Fondant (that was the shell cake)

Raspberry cake

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I do have a code, btw. It's my dessert photos. Except I left one out, so I think it only spells 'FINDE'. The key is this:

Aha! I totally called that (to myself) earlier. I seriously spent 10 minutes trying to figure out how your cake posts could work as a Finder code or a symp clue. Figured they had to be one or the other.

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You didn't have a good cover at all. This is why I didn't post my review of you. The conclusion was that you are the real Finder. Either that, or you've been planning a fake reveal since day 1.

See, the question was - why were you so concerned about posting a defense? Only made sense if you had a role (good or evil). But we knew you weren't BP, Martyr, or KM. So that only left Finder or somebody who wanted to fake a claim.

It was the obvious conclusion. Unfortunately, if you are the Finder, the FM clearly figured it out too.

Thank you for being psychic. :P I was pretty sure you knew. I suck at this role, is what it is. Apparently I was more concerned on day 1 about alt-guessing (not that you people have made it hard) and sort of forgot that finders aren't supposed to be so self-conscious.

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Provisional or not, thanks for making Bon Jovi King Madonna....I was really worried you'd make it Cher, but you're too smart for that. Er, also sorry for putting the pressure on you on night 1--I actually meant to investigate you that night, but retracted at the last minute because I realized you were very probably Kingmaker. (Gut feeling.) So I saved my investigation for tonight, but apparently my sucking up to Cher yesterday failed. I lose at acting.

I'm glad you retracted it. I really didn't want to openly reveal on night one, because if Stipe was an FM, and the FM's guessed my day 2 King, they would have retained power. Also, when I said I was pretty sure you were innocent, I was 99% sure you were the finder. Nothing yesterday happened the way I was hoping though, so here we are.

I still trust MJ.

Cher is dirty, but possibly only the symp. More in the morning, really going to bed this time.

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Here's my Jacko summary.

Michael Jackson

-Possible symp clue from Cher (post 39)

-Another possible symp clue from Cher (post 91)

-Cher irritated with Jacko and Mariah for posting and running, but not suspicious of them (post 151)

-Possible symp clue to Cher (post 177)

-Very worried about defending himself if he is going to be the lynch (post 185)

-MM is neutral on Jacko (post 187)

-Jacko defends Bruce in a subtle way (post 192)

-Jacko again concerned about the chance to defend himself (post 233)

-MM calls out Jacko on being so worried about defending himself (post 235)

-J-Lo suspicious of Jacko (post 239)

-Jacko says he's sorry for not voting on day 1 - explains that he thought he'd be able to get back in time to vote before the day ended (which is strange, given his concern about not being around to defend himself) (post 326)

-Says he would have voted J-Lo (post 326)

-Jacko doesn't like case on Mariah and calls out Madonna (posts 367 and 370)

-Stipe doesn't suspect Jacko (post 422)

-Madonna posts a case on Jacko (post 456)

-Jacko says he thinks Elton is innocent (post 488)

-Votes Cher (post 515)

-MM posts his connection of Jacko and Mariah - says if Mariah is innocent, then Jacko is innocent - if Mariah guilty, then Jacko might be guilty - then votes Mariah (post ???)

-MM wants to make Jacko a PI (post 530)

-Gwen says that if Mariah is symp, its probably not to Jacko (post 636)

Was initially concerned about a FM/Symp relationship with Cher. Obviously not the case.

Was clearly concerned about being around to reveal something prior to being lynched. Finder or fake reveal were the only 2 options that made sense as of yesterday.

Might be connected to Bruce. Posted subtle defense of him.

Didn't like the case on Mariah - was obviously right about that. Also doesn't suspect Elton. Makes sense now, given that he has reason to believe Cher is evil, and Cher/Elton don't make much sense as a team.

Stipe and MM don't suspect him. MM is the most interesting, because of the somewhat stretched theory I posted earlier - that he might have been setting up a 'lynch Mariah, make Jacko a PI' scenario.

Conclusion - We now know he's either the Finder or evil. If he's FM, I worry about MM as a Symp or partner. If he's symp, I'm worried about Bruce. Claim to investigate Bruce could have been distancing.

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For the record, my top suspects for drug-dealing killers are Springsteen and Gwen Stefani. I have Eminem (possibly Stipe) as a Tier 2 suspect, but there really aren't that many choices, so our chances of killing SOMEONE evil are pretty high. I'm not unwilling to consider Eminem and Stipe as suspects because of the rapidity with which night occurred. I sent in my investigation early, and Cher was either part of the killing team or is the symp/guard. Either way, she would have sent in something early on also. Springsteen and Gwen haven't been all that active, so even though they're both in my top tier of suspects, I don't know if it's both of them. :unsure:

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A few other things I'd like people to answer:

1) Who do you trust more - Cher or Jacko?

2) Who do you think makes sense as partner/masters for Cher?

3) Who do you think makes sense as partner/masters for Jacko?

4) Who do you want to see named King tomorrow?

5) Do you want me to kill one of Cher/Jacko, or (if you think whichever one is evil is the symp) would you rather try to nail a FM master?

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F**k. I am having a hard time keeping up with the reading and every twist in this game. I apologize I've been nearly a spectator.

I believed Cher's reveal. But on the face Jacko's is better. The cakes code would be much harder to fake than the anagrams. Right now I'm leaning towards believing Jacko. I'll be very interested to hear Cher's claimed investigation tomorrow.

As for JBJ's questions: Partner/master questions will have to wait until I have time to actually re-read the game. That likely won't be until tomorrow after work. It's late here and I have out-of-the-office training all a.m. tomorrow. Who would I like to see as king is going to be based on that re-read as well, sorry.

I would rather focus on finding FM if practical. The symp's guard power is useless now that the finder has used her power. The only advantage would be that if we lynch the symp we could CI the other claimant. If we have a strong consensus that we know which is the finder and which is the symp then we should take our best shot at a FM, imo.

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I believed Cher's reveal. But on the face Jacko's is better. The cakes code would be much harder to fake than the anagrams. Right now I'm leaning towards believing Jacko.

It worries me when people are quick to believe me. :unsure:

Edit: And don't judge the claims on the worthiness of the codes...that's a test that doesn't hold up very well. (Ask Plessiez or Piper. :P) Look at my behavior, and look and Cher's, and judge which one you think fits in better with a finder. I'm obviously biased toward my own inept attempt at the role, but JBJ has the right of it.

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morning.

interesting on the counterclaim. I suspected JBJ was hinting at something yesterday with his wait to claim.

The timing of Cher's reveal I actually counted in her favor in my book. I know everyone was pretty upset about it, even me, but past experience has taught me that even if only a few are suspecting you and you are not going to be around later and are innocent, you should reveal, especially when there is only a one innocent death margin.

On the other hand, Cher would have been the obvious kill and not just for her investigation, but for her being a possible CI. The fact that she wasn't tageted is very interesting. I know J-Lo is a strong player, but there could have been more doubt about his aligment if left alive. This leaves me more inclined to believe Jacko over Cher.

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It worries me when people are quick to believe me. :unsure:

Edit: And don't judge the claims on the worthiness of the codes...that's a test that doesn't hold up very well. (Ask Plessiez or Piper. :P) Look at my behavior, and look and Cher's, and judge which one you think fits in better with a finder. I'm obviously biased toward my own inept attempt at the role, but JBJ has the right of it.

I certainly haven't CI'd you. It was late, I had caught up with the thread and I was posting my initial reaction to your counter-claim. As I said, I want see what Cher posts and I want to finally do a re-read before I decide. I'm sure King JBJ will give us time for everyone to assess to cases. It's the weekend so it will be slow and I expect this day will last until Monday. I'm planning to do my re-read and post my cases and thoughts tonight.

On the other hand, Cher would have been the obvious kill and not just for her investigation, but for her being a possible CI. The fact that she wasn't tageted is very interesting. I know J-Lo is a strong player, but there could have been more doubt about his aligment if left alive. This leaves me more inclined to believe Jacko over Cher.

If the FM believed Cher was the finder, don't you think they would have trusted the symp to guard her? Especially after the all the back-and-forth between Stipe and Mariah, it must have been obvious what the symp's goal was for the night thereby freeing up the FM to focus on another target. Clearly the FM must have thought J-Lo was a strong player AND she represented some threat beyond that of "possible CI." ie. that she was truly on to them? I will be paying special attention to J.Lo on my re-read to see where she may have made a connection someone else missed. Well, I'm off to work, will try to check in around lunch if possible. Otherwise if will be later tonight.

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