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AGOT MAFIA 46


House Targaryen

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It's the weekend so it will be slow and I expect this day will last until Monday.

Sorry Bruce, but it's going to have to end earlier than Monday. Saturday or Sunday at the latest. I actually just remembered that I'm going to be out of town, away from an internet connection, from Monday afternoon until late Tuesday night. Given that I signed up for this game about a month ago, that work-related trip wasn't much of a consideration at the time. Now it's coming into play. I'm hoping that the game will be over by then. If not, then I'm hoping whoever is king at that point will be willing to extend the day until I get home Tuesday night.

If people would really rather have me extend this day over the whole weekend, and end it Monday morning, I guess I could consider that. But it would make for a really slow day today, and then another one on day 4 while the next king (hopefully) waits for me to get back and contribute before ending the day.

Same as Jacko. I've got no result on Springsteen.

Okay. That result actually makes me trust you more. Interesting.

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All right, let me go over the possibilities first. As I see it, there are four possible situations of varying likelyhoods. These are:

1. Cher was a symp or FM who claimed finder in a desperate bid to save themselves, MJ is the true finder. Basically, this one goes down just as MJ explained things to be.

Right now I'm leaning towards this, primarily based on MJ's behavior and the opinions I formed on my reread support this. That's not to say I've decided yet, since I haven't had time for a reread. These are just initial thoughts.

2. Cher was the real finder, claimed when it looked like she was going to be lynched. MJ claimed finder to take pressure off of his masters, presumably, or possibly some more obscure reason.

I can also see this as a distinct possibility. Cher's reveal looked very genuine to me, and certainly fit her character. If this is the case, things get a little bit more complicated, which is a point against. However, the fact that just about everyone voted for Cher yesterday (except a few people, such as me) does add a point in Cher's favor. Unless she was a Symp and the FM had completely failed to determine that she was by that point a situation where pretty much everyone believes the case on her and is willing to vote that way (including me) is pretty unlikely.

3. Both are innocent. Cher claimed finder to avoid the lynch, even though she knew she was not. If this is the case, Cher should have backed off of her claim, since in the situation we're in now would pretty much be guaranteed to end in the lynch of an innocent if it were the case. Extremely unlikely.

4. Both are guilty. I'm just not seeing this happenning, but there is some possibility, however remote, that this is the case. If this is true, then things are pretty screwed up. This would take a huge amount of guts from the FM team, although if you think about it the benifits are significant. Overall very unlikely, but something to think about.

So there, that's my thoughts on the situation with the role battle. I plan to reread both Cher and Bruce Springsteen when I get back from work, at which point I will make my finished opinion/statement. Before I go, I say that we should look at lynching a partner/master, but only if such an action can be extremely well justified. While there is some chance that both are guilty or innocent, we should still act based on the opinion that one of them is guilty. Better to work on a 50% chance of hitting an evil than a 50% chance of choosing the evil one then looking for partners or masters. Our opinions may be wrong, but a flip of a coin is always the same chance.

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I'm back but very hungover...I'll try to get some posts done in the next few hours because I will be busy a lot tonight and tomorrow. Not going to be modkilled, but afk for a few extended periods. Then I'll be back and on a more normal schedule. This sucks. I think Jacko has a good claim and I definitely suspected Cher more over the last couple days than him. His behavior does feel more like a finder. Beyond that, I need to do some reading and figure some things out.

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I have to admit that I'm fairly disappointed by the lack of posts since the day started. Where is everyone? We have 9 players left. There should be more activity right now.

Cher and Jacko need to step it up. Make cases on each other. Tell me who you think the other person is connected to.

Need a solid opinion from Madonna on all of this, since she is the only person I really trust.

And the other 5 suspects need to post definitive opinions as well. Answer the questions that I posed earlier. Talking to Stipe, Eminem, Gwen, Elton, and Bruce here. Don't dance around my questions. I want you to take a stand.

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Literally just woke up. Doing a re-read with your questions in mind. Instinctual answers as follow.

1) Who do you trust more - Cher or Jacko?

Jacko, but that is residuals from what I was thinking yesterday. I'm going to pay attention on my reread.

2) Who do you think makes sense as partner/masters for Cher?

Bruce and Elton

3) Who do you think makes sense as partner/masters for Jacko?

Bruce and Eminem

4) Who do you want to see named King tomorrow?

Myself. Being impossible, it depends on if we can figure out which Finder-claimant is telling the truth.

5) Do you want me to kill one of Cher/Jacko, or (if you think whichever one is evil is the symp) would you rather try to nail a FM master?

If we believe Cher is telling the truth, Jacko is likely the Symp. If we trust Jacko, I could see Cher as the master. I'll give my opinion after I finish a read through.

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If Gwen Stefani posts between now and 2:15, I am going to be furious. 7 posts this game. 7. She is either the absolute worst RI ever or the most absurd FM staying under the radar. I honestly don't even care if she is innocent and dies, I just want to know whether she is innocent or guilty so I can move on from keeping her as a suspect because she has done absolutely nothing.

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If Gwen Stefani posts between now and 2:15, I am going to be furious. 7 posts this game. 7. She is either the absolute worst RI ever or the most absurd FM staying under the radar. I honestly don't even care if she is innocent and dies, I just want to know whether she is innocent or guilty so I can move on from keeping her as a suspect because she has done absolutely nothing.

Woah...I completely disagree with this. Gwen better post before she is modkilled. If she doesn't, I'll be seeking extremely harsh sanctions against her.

If she doesn't post, then today is endgame. The game would be completely ruined. Seriously...if she doesn't post and is modkilled, I might stop playing mafia here altogether out of disgust.

If she isn't modkilled, then we have 2 chances to lynch left, and I feel that we have an average shot to win the game.

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Just noticed I listed Bruce in both. Don't know how that happened, and I'm not sure if that makes me want to move him down my list of suspects. Have a lot to think about on the re-read.

Why would listing Bruce as being connected to both claimants make you want to move him down on your overall suspect list? Wouldn't it make you want to move him up instead?

Or are we just confused on semantics here?

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Woah...I completely disagree with this. Gwen better post before she is modkilled. If she doesn't, I'll be seeking extremely harsh sanctions against her.

If she doesn't post, then today is endgame. The game would be completely ruined. Seriously...if she doesn't post and is modkilled, I might stop playing mafia here altogether out of disgust.

If she isn't modkilled, then we have 2 chances to lynch left, and I feel that we have an average shot to win the game.

I suppose, I wasn't really looking from the endgame view..just disgusted with her complete lack of posting and lack of attempts to explain it. Plus, I do think she has a strong chance of being evil.

Why would listing Bruce as being connected to both claimants make you want to move him down on your overall suspect list? Wouldn't it make you want to move him up instead?

Or are we just confused on semantics here?

I noticed this too, and in doing a reread on Bruce I can see, thus far at least, this being a possibility. If he fits for both, that is the type of person that it probably makes sense to lynch, we need to maximize our chances of actually nailing an evil.

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Why would listing Bruce as being connected to both claimants make you want to move him down on your overall suspect list? Wouldn't it make you want to move him up instead?

Or are we just confused on semantics here?

Oh, sorry, my list has suspects at the bottom, CI's at the top, just was looking at the piece of paper in front of me.

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I have to admit that I'm fairly disappointed by the lack of posts since the day started. Where is everyone? We have 9 players left. There should be more activity right now.

Cher and Jacko need to step it up. Make cases on each other. Tell me who you think the other person is connected to.

Need a solid opinion from Madonna on all of this, since she is the only person I really trust.

And the other 5 suspects need to post definitive opinions as well. Answer the questions that I posed earlier. Talking to Stipe, Eminem, Gwen, Elton, and Bruce here. Don't dance around my questions. I want you to take a stand.

I'm on my lunch break and working on them now :)

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I don't know if I'm going to be able to step it up. Remember when I said I was going to be pretty busy on Friday and not to make me King? Well, today's Friday. I'll probably have a little time to post later today, but basically, my first choice would be to hit whoever Cher's master or partner is--Bruce or Gwen. If we can't decide on which one of them is evil, then my next choice for a lynch is Cher. It seems kind of strange that she'd plan this reveal from the beginning if she were FM--on the other hand, her behavior fits more with the profile of a killer than a symp (lack of connections, vague opinions about people other than, say, Elton/Mariah/Jagger) so I'm torn.

I'll try to write this up in a more coherent way later on.

JBJ, can you tell me why Cher's investigation (or rather, lack thereof) makes you trust her more?

Remember, no one had counterclaimed her yesterday, which would mean that if she were the real finder, she should have been worried about dying at night. Does it worry you even a little that she declined to say who her suspects were in any concrete way? She told Madonna (for the second time) who her top choices for King were, but didn't say anywhere that she suspected X, Y or Z. You'd think that she should have been a little more concerned about last words with no living martyr. :thumbsdown:

The reason why I keep returning to Gwen as a suspect is that I have this feeling that Gwen has a partner who's reminded her to post just enough not to be modkilled. That, and Cher's distinct lack of commentary on Gwen (even when Cher went so far as to say on day 1 that she would prefer to lynch someone with 1 post rather than someone with 0 posts) makes me uneasy about Gwen. If Gwen is evil, I think it's likely that her partner is Cher rather than Springsteen, because Cher is more active.

More when I get back, hopefully.

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1) Who do you trust more - Cher or Jacko?

Jacko: I never had any real suspicions of him, yet I very clearly stated that I felt one of Cher or Mariah was guilty.

2) Who do you think makes sense as partner/masters for Cher?

Bruce:

Anyhow, I've got to run. I don't like Aguilera's two-hit post-and-run, especially her lack of thoughts. I approve of the catch on Springsteen being below the radar, but his post above makes me feel a bit better about him. I'm not impressed with Jagger's defense. Not sure what I want to hear, but that wasn't it. As much as I'd hate to lynch an active poster, Jagger's my favored lynch for now.

Stipe:

Madonna, out of Stipe, Eminem, and Jackson... Preferably not Stipe since I've got bad vibes on him, but I'll admit he's been rational and he held a democratic Day 1, so I hope the vibes are unfounded[/quote

Gewn:

(sorry, lost the quote) Didn’t want to lynch Gwen or Brittney as no shows.

Other then the case she made on me, Cher has not voiced any really strong suspicions of anyone.

3) Who do you think makes sense as partner/masters for Jacko?

Jon Bon Jovi: first person to really come out and say they thought he was innocent. If the morning scene had not been changed I would consider this a real possibility.

Elton: but I know I am innocent. Several times he looked like he was defending me why weighing the possibility of my guilt.

Neither of these are real possibilities. The only other thing is that Stipe was his secondary choice for king. I’m not seeing a lot of connections to Jacko.

4) Who do you want to see named King tomorrow? If we lynch Cher AND she is guilty, Jacko. :P (which is my way of saying I would like JBJ again…sorry Jacko)

5) Do you want me to kill one of Cher/Jacko, or (if you think whichever one is evil is the symp) would you rather try to nail a FM master? Yes. We don’t have a lot of room for error here and I would like us to take a shot at one of the baddies we know.

Choosing between the two, I would be more inclined to go with Cher as the one who is guilty.

edit: formatting

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Lunch break check-in. I was hoping for something more from Cher. But not much has happened from anyone. :unsure:

JBJ - I understand the time issues. My limited time now is similarly based on when sign-ups were originally. Tonight is the best for me in terms of availability, but I should have some time on Sunday night too depending on when a family commitment ends.

Look for more from me tonight when I intend to do a complete re-read.

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