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AGOT MAFIA 46

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I'm stopping for the night. I apologize for the earlier posts. I think we need less of that not more. It's frustration with myself for RL stuff and for not having time to really contribute to the game.

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Well, I am entirely unsurprised at the kill. I got a bit of a start on my own rereadm, but I'll probably end up tossing the notes out. I'm not sure if I'll be back on the thread before I go to bed but I must say that EJ is getting no attention at all. Did something happen to clear him that I missed?

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I'm not sure if I'll be back on the thread before I go to bed but I must say that EJ is getting no attention at all. Did something happen to clear him that I missed?

Cher pushed EJ day 2. If Cher was the symp that pretty much discounts him as an FM.

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Cher pushed EJ day 2. If Cher was the symp that pretty much discounts him as an FM.

Finished my re-read. Now that I'm rather certain Cher was the symp and not FM, I fully support the cases on Bruce and Eminem. I'd like to see Bruce lynched today, Eminem tomorrow, but I'd like to hear their full cases before I put together my final one. On a side note, severe weather predicted, not sure I'll be around.

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From what I can gather, Madonna, MM, Elton, and Stipe all want me to kill Bruce today.

Bruce, who do you want me to kill?

Anyway, right now, I'm still waiting for Bruce, MM, and perhaps others to post defenses and analysis.

Also, if anybody has a case against Elton, might be a good idea to post it. I currently agree with Madonna that Cher was probably a symp. As a result, I have Elton down as PI, and I think he's the best choice for King tomorrow. I get the feeling that Madonna feels the same way. If anybody disagrees, its probably a good idea to start convincing us of your position now.

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Also, if anybody has a case against Elton, might be a good idea to post it. I currently agree with Madonna that Cher was probably a symp. As a result, I have Elton down as PI, and I think he's the best choice for King tomorrow. I get the feeling that Madonna feels the same way. If anybody disagrees, its probably a good idea to start convincing us of your position now.

I finished my re-read, I have my final case. Still want to hold onto it until I hear from others.

I do believe that if Bruce flips guilty and I crown EJ (assuming he IS RI, as I believe), we're in a winning position. The remaining FM has four choices on who to kill, and two of those kills would result in an obvious win for us, the other two still leaving us in a favorable situation.

I have only one hesitation on crowning EJ. I have him PI, but I want a win tomorrow, so I'd like the trio of him, Stipe and Eminem to please each give me a solid case on who they think the remaining FM's are and who I should crown tomorrow.

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I am working on my cases now. I am about half way thru the thread. My primary suspect so far is Stipe as a either a partner or master to Cher. Eminem as a master to Cher and less so EJ as a partner to Cher.

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Sorry for the delay, I really am doing a first time complete re-read as I've had no opportunity this week. I'm on page 26. Based on what I've seen so far, Cher can't be connected to EJ and for time purposes I'm not re-reading him further. He's the best choice for King tomorrow. Stipe remains my top suspect based on what I've read.

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I made my posts earlier, I have clearly been proactive in showing areas where I think Cher showed she couldn't be my symp (consistently trying to remind everyone to not let me go under the radar) and show places where not only does she fit as symp to Eminem and Bruce but that they fit as partners as well. I am completely fine with either Bruce or Eminem getting lynched today.

eta- I will be away for another 5-6 hours max, and then I will be back and read through to see if there is anything I might have missed.

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Save for Jagger, Bon Jovi, and JLo, no one else really leaves an imprint on my mind. If Stipe weren't the king, I'd vote that the king lynch him for lack of contribution, but considering the circumstances, I don't think King Stipe will lynch King Stipe. The fact that he is not necessarily innocent puts me on edge. I've been keeping an eye on Elton John for not posting anything but inane lyrics, but he seems to be remedying that little problem now. ...There really isn't anyone else pinging my radar, sadly.

ETA: Hello, Madonna.

Possible symp clue, possible distancing. Not a lot else to say.

3PM EST is good for me, Stipe. 11:45 is... well, I won't be around, that's for sure. I've got numbers to add and brain cells to kill, you know. Instead of having a set time, Stripe, could you make your decision at 3PM and, if the would-be lynch isn't around, wait for them to show up for a few last words? Obviously, I don't mean wait another 24 hours, just until... I don't know, 6PM or so? Something reasonable.

Anyhow, I've got to run. I don't like Aguilera's two-hit post-and-run, especially her lack of thoughts. I approve of the catch on Springsteen being below the radar, but his post above makes me feel a bit better about him. I'm not impressed with Jagger's defense. Not sure what I want to hear, but that wasn't it. As much as I'd hate to lynch an active poster, Jagger's my favored lynch for now.

I'll be out until early afternoon EST. Short of disaster, I should be back before 3PM. I'll try to check in over the next few hours however much I can, but my schedule isn't as forgiving as it was yesterday, so I can't make any promises.

Is this, oh, trying to take the suspiscion off of Bruce? I think that it almost certainly is. Also acts as a bit of distancing between them, but the primary point is the deflection.

I've said many useful things Miss Hennifer Lopez. I will start to post more of my thoughts though.

:rolleyes: to both. I agree it is very stupid to say you never contribute Day 1. Just don't contribute (or do) and live with the consequences. To say that you never do is just obnoxious.

Agreed.

As for my own thoughts,

I am leaning towards Jagger or Springsteen being the most suspicious, now with Mariah making her way up. I think that Bon Jovi is most likely to be innocent. More in a bit.

eta- I am rereading/tallying votes btw.

Springsteen is among the most suspiscious. Not, of course, that Stipe made any effort to incriminate him or to lynch him. Stipe was king on day 1. He knew he would never have to get Bruce lynched. Therefore, he's completely free to use the whole day as distancing.

Who? God dammit...

This was Stipe's response to the CF result on Mick. It seems every bit as forced as he thought my post to be.

<snip>

Top 5 suspects:

Britney Spears-Possibility to be an FM, not a symp

Bruce Springsteen-Could be FM or symp

Cher-Could be FM or symp

Stefani-Could be FM, suspicious of not wanting to have the KM reveal...

Mariah Carey- Same suspicions as what have been mentioned before

Less Suspicious:

Elton John-seems alright, inno vibes

Eminem-seemed like they had some solid things to say, didn't feel wrong to me

Jennifer Lopez- seems genuine and currently our lovely Queen

Jon Bon Jovi - No change from yesterday, I generally believe him...won't CI out of paranoia, but VPI

Michael Jackson- No really sure here, doesn't seem evil but no overly innocent vibes

Madonna- Innocent, Kingmaker

Christina-innocent, Martyr

Mick Jagger-innocent, RI or 1-time finder...probably RI

As I said, this is just a list off the top of my head. I need to do some rereading to confirm some of my gut feelings, I particularly want to look at everyone who said the Kingmaker shouldn't reveal.

edit: Switched Christina and Gwen again, thanks Madonna...I keep getting them confused for some reason.

A list "off the top of my head" happens to include both of the other evils in the suspiscious pool, as well as 3 easy targets (2 inactives and "I don't want to help" Mariah).

I am currently rereading, not really focused on any one person but taking a particular interest in the suspects I noted before. <Snip, stuff about how easy the FM have had it>

Interesting point from JBJ regarding whether FM would, or would not, jump in on a mob that was forming. As he posted it, Bruce crossposted and jumped in on the mob. While I think it is definitely something we look for as innocents, that doesn't mean that FM won't pass up the opportunity. I am really not sure whether to count that for or against Bruce in the grand scheme of things. It is extremely easy and opportunistic, consider his post:

Such an easy throw away post. JBJ calls Bruce on it immediately and Bruce is defensive claiming to have crossposted. Based on the times, yes it was definitely crossposted...but just because JBJ says he won't find the next person suspicious doesn't mean Bruce should or would make a post to try and create a mob. I am feeling more suspicious of Bruce at the moment, even though JBJ feels it is less suspicious because it is too obvious. More as I continue through in the next post so these aren't too long.

More suspiscious of Bruce. That makes him, what, your top suspect at this point? Note the underlined part is both noncomittal and a deflection of suspiscion.

Back to my list from this morning/last night/earlier/yesterday/last year for a few changes:

Top 5 suspects:

Suspicion going up or the same:

Cher-Could be FM or symp, more confident in my suspicion here too although she made some decent points

Stefani-Could be FM, suspicious of not wanting to have the KM reveal...also just get in the game or get out...with only 3 points you are just obnoxious

Mariah Carey- Definitely feeling more suspicious and confident in my suspicions

Suspicion dropping:

Britney Spears-I got good vibes from Britney, I didn't comment on much of what she said but it seemed genuine and we will get more shortly I hope.

Bruce Springsteen-Kept seeming like an FM...then had the "I'm confused" kind of post...I don't know, makes me less sure of his guilt

<snip>

eta- my vote (I'll just edit it in because they aren't "official"), I'm not sure who to peg among the top 3. Cher is kind of the sexy pick right now, although Mariah is too, and Gwen is another easy pick because they've been gone so much. I'll go with Mariah for now, but I would be happy to vote for any of the 3 (or Bruce too in a real pinch, I'd like to hear more from Britney before I strongly consider voting for her).

So, he thinks that Cher is the most suspiscious but votes for Mariah because he thinks she might be the symp? It's tough to say that the FM would have uncovered their symp by this point, but if they had this is exactly what I would have expected. Distancing without actually trying to get the person lynched.

That is where I am starting to go with Bruce as well. Everything was fitting together as an FM, but I do believe that it likely fits together better with this description. I do find Elton a bit suspicious, but before it wasn't really anything to note. I will have to carefully reread Cher's case (which at first look felt more like bulk than quality or quantity even, if that makes sense) and reread Elton.

Well, Bruce no longer really looks like he's evil. All of the distancing completed, Stipe can now go ahead and defend Bruce a little bit. If things start to go the other way, he can easily just say that he reread again and renew his origional suspiscion. Like, oh, now.

This two-pronged attack on Elton is very interesting. It really didn't have much in the way of legs to begin with and yet it is still trying to be pushed. I'm not sure if I am more suspicious of who started it (Cher) or who has continued it (Mariah Carey). I suppose the main strength of it is that it is a case that seemed like it could be plausible and it was on someone that nobody really mentioned that they had a strong read on, either way. Thus, making a case and getting suspicion in his direction is far easier than trying to make someone suspicious of say Bon Jovi or JLo, whom are more likely innocent (based on general belief).

eta-

FM should never risk themselves to protect their symp. Ever.

More distancing from Cher, who he now believes is going to be voted off. Still doesn't vote for her, however.

Don't remind me :cry:....stop looking at me! :leaving:

:P

eta:...but seriously though, that did suck. Eminem completely called it.

He, of course, thinks that my actions involving the lynch on day 1 are suspiscious now, but look at this. A time when he thought they were exactly the opposite of suspiscious.

Believes two people we know/figure to be innocent. Throws us Springsteen. I'd say this is -1 to the probability of the Boss being FM.

This makes me a little less sure of the Boss because she is trying to move on from him, but I still think the Boss is likely innocent.

Again, talking up 'starting a train' which never really did happen. Feels like a symp's attempt to throw some easy muck, it didn't stick, so fuck it..wait until tomorrow because Jagger is on his way to being lynched anyway. (IIRC this is that time of day, I'll double check in a bit)

Chooses JLo, JBJ, and EJ to talk about from day 1...they all seem innocent.

Remembers to throw in Eminem, he seems innocent for a bullshit reason.

Notes on MJ, but they were lost...so in summary (aka easier for me to just throw this out there with no support) Jacko is probably innocent. Turning on Cher. Lists Cher, Gwen, Britney, and myself as suspects. I believe one of these is likely guilty, just from past experience and probability. If one of them is guilty, obviously from my POV, it is either Gwen or a very savvy Cher. So Gwen. I recall there being many moments in the past where Mariah mentioned the low posters, she always mentioned having something against Britney (meta mostly). Interesting now that we know Britney is innocent. Too bad Gwen managed to avoid her modkill, I'd like to know if she really is evil without wasting a lynch on someone that we have no handle on really...other than people's description of her like Mariah's.

Conclusion of likely masters:

Elton John- Too unlikely considering the pressure she had put on him with Cher, seems like too much.

Eminem- Possibility here, although I feel he was not guilty. The major flag here is his case from earlier that was just completely erroneous, torn apart, and forgotten in about 3 posts

The Boss- Faint possibility, seems unlikely and I don't believe he is an FM at this point

JBJ- If he is, he wins.

Gwen- Definitely a possibility->

Here is a post from Gwen about conclusions if Carey is a symp...Clearing Bruce, Elton, myself, spears, and MJ. I am trying to decide whether she would sneak in her, possible, partner in this list or omit him. Off of the list is Cher (VPI), JBJ (VPI), JLo (P/VPI), Madonna (CI), and Eminem. Unfortunately I feel that either MJ or Eminem could be possibilities on their own based on Mariah's posts where they are mentioned. Worth another look and a look to see their interaction and their interaction with Gwen.

Michael Jackson- Possibility here too

Cher- Believing the claim more and more

JLo- Believing to be a PI

Well, now he outright states that he doesn't think Bruce is an FM, and thinks that Mariah's suspiscion of him makes Bruce look even less evil. He believes Cher's more and more. Of course, I would too if it helped my symp get out of trouble, wouldn't you?

F**k. I am having a hard time keeping up with the reading and every twist in this game. I apologize I've been nearly a spectator.

I believed Cher's reveal. But on the face Jacko's is better. The cakes code would be much harder to fake than the anagrams. Right now I'm leaning towards believing Jacko. I'll be very interested to hear Cher's claimed investigation tomorrow.

As for JBJ's questions: Partner/master questions will have to wait until I have time to actually re-read the game. That likely won't be until tomorrow after work. It's late here and I have out-of-the-office training all a.m. tomorrow. Who would I like to see as king is going to be based on that re-read as well, sorry.

I would rather focus on finding FM if practical. The symp's guard power is useless now that the finder has used her power. The only advantage would be that if we lynch the symp we could CI the other claimant. If we have a strong consensus that we know which is the finder and which is the symp then we should take our best shot at a FM, imo.

To paraphrase, middle of the road on the claims, has no time to actually help, but feels we should aim for an FM rather than one of the two claimants. This, of course, has a much higher chance of killing an innocent, especially since his good friend Stipe is pretty much in the clear. Besides which, at this point almost everone was leaning towards MJ as the real finder and that meant that if they did go for one of the two it would almost certainly be Cher. Better to have a fair chance of hitting an innocent and leave the finder battle unresolved that to be almost certain to hit an evil and have another CI floating around, don't you think?

I certainly haven't CI'd you. It was late, I had caught up with the thread and I was posting my initial reaction to your counter-claim. As I said, I want see what Cher posts and I want to finally do a re-read before I decide. I'm sure King JBJ will give us time for everyone to assess to cases. It's the weekend so it will be slow and I expect this day will last until Monday. I'm planning to do my re-read and post my cases and thoughts tonight.

If the FM believed Cher was the finder, don't you think they would have trusted the symp to guard her? Especially after the all the back-and-forth between Stipe and Mariah, it must have been obvious what the symp's goal was for the night thereby freeing up the FM to focus on another target. Clearly the FM must have thought J-Lo was a strong player AND she represented some threat beyond that of "possible CI." ie. that she was truly on to them? I will be paying special attention to J.Lo on my re-read to see where she may have made a connection someone else missed. Well, I'm off to work, will try to check in around lunch if possible. Otherwise if will be later tonight.

Spoken like somebody who knew exactly what was going on in the FM's head. Which is easy, since he is one of the FM. Note that all of Stipe's comments about the symp being able to guard the finder make an excellent set of instructions.

Same as Jacko. I've got no result on Springsteen.

This post is like a textbook example of distancing. No matter which of the two "finders" gets lynched, Springsteen looks like he was being targeted. It backfired, of course, but it was a good try.

Honestly, I almost want you to just roll the dice and kill Cher. It will be way more frustrating if we do all sorts of rereads and posts, and then don't even get a baddie. Ugh. This really fucking sucks.

After Gwen got modkilled. He almost wants JBJ to roll the dice and kill Cher. Especially when it was all but certain Cher would be the lynch, this is obviously distancing. Doesn't make a difinitive statement, but sounds like he supported the lynch should it actually happen.

If you're going to role the dice, I'd obviously prefer that you lynch one of the "finders" instead of me. One of them must be guilty so at least we've narrowed the odds to 50/50. I have not and can not do a re-read now. I shouldn't even be doing this right now.

As I said before, I think the Jacko claim looks more believable. If you're making the decision now then I say go for Cher and hope for the best.

And ffs don't lynch me based on stupid fucking Day 1 RP. :rolleyes:

So now both FM have done their distancing from Cher and Bruce has done a complete 180 from his earlier comments.

I agree with you here that she was likely the symp. My only concern is that it was Shadowbaby, and she might have done something crazy like fake-claim as an FM.

From that list of three, which I agree with, I'm sure I will shock the world by saying that the FM team must be Bruce or Eminem. I was way off here unfortunately.

I was definitely on to Bruce for awhile, and then I let it all go because of his one post where he sort of gave up on JBJ by saying it was just because of his playstyle. I am feeling very foolish for letting that go because that is just a stupid reason to be ever making some of the moves he did.

As for Eminem, that sucks too because I had been believing he was more likely to be innocent. His posts came off as very reasonable and genuine, except for that one post (sorry don't have time right now to find it) where he made just a ridiculous case and it was torn apart. He claimed it was all confusion because he was tired, but it also may have been just a very poor force case. As I said earlier, I am going to be on sparingly until probably tomorrow night. I wish I could do more now and I will absolutely try and do as much as I can.

Also, JBJ paranoia is a good thing sometimes, but don't go overboard. Trust your gut. :)

The last thing. He tries to undermine the belief that Cher was the symp, since doing so opens up another innocent and gives him a much better chance of surviving. He says "Oh, I was right about Bruce right from the start. Too damn bad he has to be guilty, but I guess I was wrong to stop attacking him." This puts everything he did on day 1 and day 2 into perspective. Like I said earlier, it was all done at a time when Bruce was not a cantidate for a lynch or could not have been lynched, but at this point it works extremely well as distancing as it was always intended to. Also, he starts up an arguement with Bruce to further distance himself. After all, nothing says you aren't partners more than sarcastic distain. Read the arguement from the POV that they are partners, and it looks awefully staged, at least to me. Clearly Bruce is being set up to take the fall. It's also possible that they had me set up as a skapegoat partner for both of them in the event that a situation like this came to pass. Both said they trusted me for virtually the entire game, deflected suspiscion from me whenever possible and tried to make me king for day 3. It would take a lot of foresight and planning, but Stipe has never showed anything else in this game.

That's all I have, so I'm leaving it in the hands of our CIs and kings. I don't believe that Cher could have been anything but a symp at this point in time, so I'm going to hope that EJ is innocent. A case could be made for EJ/BS, based on the fact that they never interacted at all until today when Cher came up guilty, but I feel that Stipe/Bruce is much more likely.

After all of that, I reccomend that we lynch Bruce today and Stipe tomorrow. For the king, the only person I can trust is myself, but if you can't bring yourselves to trust me then I suppose that Elton John is the only choice.

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I just thought of something that I think I'd like to discuss more when I get back. I am sure you won't rush the day, but just in case you were, I'd like you to wait for me to get back JBJ. Just wanted to mention this before I begin replying to Eminem.

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Interesting post, MM.

Stipe - I'm not the most patient person in the world, but I'll try to wait for everyone to say what they have to say before I end the day.

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Interesting post, MM.

Stipe - I'm not the most patient person in the world, but I'll try to wait for everyone to say what they have to say before I end the day.

I'm aware, but if I get back and the next day has started with a king ready to lynch me I am not going to be happy.

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I'm aware, but if I get back and the next day has started with a king ready to lynch me I am not going to be happy.

Keeping you happy isn't in my job description. :P

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I suppose it could be a symp clue, but it definitely isn't that strong. However, this coupled with the fact that Cher did repeatedly bring me up as a suspect, trying to not allow me to be PIed maybe. Not something that a symp would do to their master.

Is this, oh, trying to take the suspiscion off of Bruce? I think that it almost certainly is. Also acts as a bit of distancing between them, but the primary point is the deflection.

Springsteen is among the most suspiscious. Not, of course, that Stipe made any effort to incriminate him or to lynch him. Stipe was king on day 1. He knew he would never have to get Bruce lynched. Therefore, he's completely free to use the whole day as distancing.

This was Stipe's response to the CF result on Mick. It seems every bit as forced as he thought my post to be.

Forced asking who jr0x0r was? Sure if you want to read it that way, however that is a perfectly logical response. Not "Oh damn damn damn we lynched an innocent day 1!" A little different when you are an innocent king and you kill and innocent who's behavior is easily explained as being new to our mafia.

A list "off the top of my head" happens to include both of the other evils in the suspiscious pool, as well as 3 easy targets (2 inactives and "I don't want to help" Mariah).

This isn't really a point against me. Usually evils this early would try and keep their partner a little more protected. Plus the other is the symp, so are you saying I already know Cher was my symp at this point?

More suspiscious of Bruce. That makes him, what, your top suspect at this point? Note the underlined part is both noncomittal and a deflection of suspiscion.

So because I say I am more suspicious of Bruce in this post that means he needs to be my top suspect immediately? If you look at the post where Bruce explains why he kept being suspicious of JBJ, at the time, it made perfect sense to me. JBJ was playing rather abrasively and aggressively, which bothered Bruce. A lot of times, even if you are new, this makes you suspicious of someone just because you are uncomfortable. I've seen it happen many times before and based on his posts that seemed to make sense.

So, he thinks that Cher is the most suspiscious but votes for Mariah because he thinks she might be the symp? It's tough to say that the FM would have uncovered their symp by this point, but if they had this is exactly what I would have expected. Distancing without actually trying to get the person lynched.

This entire piece of evidence against me is predicated on the fact that I already figured out who my symp was. Really? FM rarely find their symps that early on, at least that I have seen in the passed. Furthermore as I've said many times before, FM NEVER PROTECT THEIR SYMP. NEVER EVER. It is an extremely stupid move. The symp is there to protect the FM. Thus, your evidence here necessitates that I somehow figured out Cher was my symp (man all those symp clues you found of her symping me must have made me positive about her) and the fact that I would for some reason protect my symp.

Well, Bruce no longer really looks like he's evil. All of the distancing completed, Stipe can now go ahead and defend Bruce a little bit. If things start to go the other way, he can easily just say that he reread again and renew his origional suspiscion. Like, oh, now.

Again, my change of heart on Bruce was genuine. ::shrugs:: take it or leave it. I could be pushing for you to be lynched today very easily, but I'm pushing Bruce. I think either one would be fine for today and there is sufficient evidence for either of you to be lynched.

More distancing from Cher, who he now believes is going to be voted off. Still doesn't vote for her, however.

First of all, this isn't distancing IMO. Second of all, I'll remind you again: FM do not protect their symps.

He, of course, thinks that my actions involving the lynch on day 1 are suspiscious now, but look at this. A time when he thought they were exactly the opposite of suspiscious.

I never brought this up as evidence against you actually so there is no flip-flop. In that post I was actually not suspicious of you at all. In fact, I was giving you props for the fact that you pointed out Jagger looked like someone that was overeager for mafia and made mistakes. I actually had thought that post was quite genuine and was one of the reasons I was trusting you. Upon further consideration, this is actually another point against you because you still tried to put your vote against Jagger before the end of the day.

Well, now he outright states that he doesn't think Bruce is an FM, and thinks that Mariah's suspiscion of him makes Bruce look even less evil. He believes Cher's more and more. Of course, I would too if it helped my symp get out of trouble, wouldn't you?

IIRC this post was made under the assumption that Mariah was the symp. This is clearly not the case, but I still think those conclusions are valid based on that assumption. Unfortunately, the assumption was wrong.

After Gwen got modkilled. He almost wants JBJ to roll the dice and kill Cher. Especially when it was all but certain Cher would be the lynch, this is obviously distancing. Doesn't make a difinitive statement, but sounds like he supported the lynch should it actually happen.

Sounds like? Yes I did. Even if I was evil I would have supported it. Again, FM never try and protect their symp.

The last thing. He tries to undermine the belief that Cher was the symp, since doing so opens up another innocent and gives him a much better chance of surviving. He says "Oh, I was right about Bruce right from the start. Too damn bad he has to be guilty, but I guess I was wrong to stop attacking him." This puts everything he did on day 1 and day 2 into perspective. Like I said earlier, it was all done at a time when Bruce was not a cantidate for a lynch or could not have been lynched, but at this point it works extremely well as distancing as it was always intended to. Also, he starts up an arguement with Bruce to further distance himself. After all, nothing says you aren't partners more than sarcastic distain. Read the arguement from the POV that they are partners, and it looks awefully staged, at least to me. Clearly Bruce is being set up to take the fall. It's also possible that they had me set up as a skapegoat partner for both of them in the event that a situation like this came to pass. Both said they trusted me for virtually the entire game, deflected suspiscion from me whenever possible and tried to make me king for day 3. It would take a lot of foresight and planning, but Stipe has never showed anything else in this game.

Really? You find it suspicious that I undermined the belief that Cher was the symp based on one line about Shadowbaby being willing to do crazy things (which is true, still love her though). So what were you doing here?:

All right, let me go over the possibilities first. As I see it, there are four possible situations of varying likelyhoods. These are:

1. Cher was a symp or FM who claimed finder in a desperate bid to save themselves, MJ is the true finder. Basically, this one goes down just as MJ explained things to be.

Right now I'm leaning towards this, primarily based on MJ's behavior and the opinions I formed on my reread support this. That's not to say I've decided yet, since I haven't had time for a reread. These are just initial thoughts.

2. Cher was the real finder, claimed when it looked like she was going to be lynched. MJ claimed finder to take pressure off of his masters, presumably, or possibly some more obscure reason.

I can also see this as a distinct possibility. Cher's reveal looked very genuine to me, and certainly fit her character. If this is the case, things get a little bit more complicated, which is a point against. However, the fact that just about everyone voted for Cher yesterday (except a few people, such as me) does add a point in Cher's favor. Unless she was a Symp and the FM had completely failed to determine that she was by that point a situation where pretty much everyone believes the case on her and is willing to vote that way (including me) is pretty unlikely.

3. Both are innocent. Cher claimed finder to avoid the lynch, even though she knew she was not. If this is the case, Cher should have backed off of her claim, since in the situation we're in now would pretty much be guaranteed to end in the lynch of an innocent if it were the case. Extremely unlikely.

4. Both are guilty. I'm just not seeing this happenning, but there is some possibility, however remote, that this is the case. If this is true, then things are pretty screwed up. This would take a huge amount of guts from the FM team, although if you think about it the benifits are significant. Overall very unlikely, but something to think about.

So there, that's my thoughts on the situation with the role battle. I plan to reread both Cher and Bruce Springsteen when I get back from work, at which point I will make my finished opinion/statement. Before I go, I say that we should look at lynching a partner/master, but only if such an action can be extremely well justified. While there is some chance that both are guilty or innocent, we should still act based on the opinion that one of them is guilty. Better to work on a 50% chance of hitting an evil than a 50% chance of choosing the evil one then looking for partners or masters. Our opinions may be wrong, but a flip of a coin is always the same chance.

This looks you might be trying to confuse things. Pretty much exactly what you accused me of, except you made an extensive post about it. Nice.

That's all I have, so I'm leaving it in the hands of our CIs and kings. I don't believe that Cher could have been anything but a symp at this point in time, so I'm going to hope that EJ is innocent. A case could be made for EJ/BS, based on the fact that they never interacted at all until today when Cher came up guilty, but I feel that Stipe/Bruce is much more likely.

After all of that, I reccomend that we lynch Bruce today and Stipe tomorrow. For the king, the only person I can trust is myself, but if you can't bring yourselves to trust me then I suppose that Elton John is the only choice.

Nice conclusion here. So NOW you don't believe Cher couldn't be anything but a symp? Trying to look reasonable by suggesting maybe EJ/BS could be a partnership, ignoring the fact that Cher wouldn't be a symp to EJ so it is bullshit. Puts himself up for King when tomorrow (assuming Bruce is lynched, which I am) it is going to either be Eminem lynched or me. A bit audacious no?

Alright, now I am late and really have to go. Just wanted to get that out of the way so if anyone else had any comments they could respond and I'll get back to them when I am back in 5-6 hours.

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