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House Targaryen

AGOT MAFIA 46

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I have only one hesitation on crowning EJ. I have him PI, but I want a win tomorrow, so I'd like the trio of him, Stipe and Eminem to please each give me a solid case on who they think the remaining FM's are and who I should crown tomorrow.

ok...I'll do the full cases I'm fairly sure of Bruce and I highly suspect Stipe. This will most likely take a bit as I am back and forth doing family stuff.

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Really? You find it suspicious that I undermined the belief that Cher was the symp based on one line about Shadowbaby being willing to do crazy things (which is true, still love her though). So what were you doing here?:

This looks you might be trying to confuse things. Pretty much exactly what you accused me of, except you made an extensive post about it. Nice.

Nice conclusion here. So NOW you don't believe Cher couldn't be anything but a symp? Trying to look reasonable by suggesting maybe EJ/BS could be a partnership, ignoring the fact that Cher wouldn't be a symp to EJ so it is bullshit. Puts himself up for King when tomorrow (assuming Bruce is lynched, which I am) it is going to either be Eminem lynched or me. A bit audacious no?

Alright, now I am late and really have to go. Just wanted to get that out of the way so if anyone else had any comments they could respond and I'll get back to them when I am back in 5-6 hours.

I'm only going to respond to these 2 right now. To the first one: How was that trying to confuse things. I laid out all of the possibilities and then basically said that one of them made no sense (both innocent) and the other would be somewhere in the area of stupidity. That left me with only the two reasonable ones, of which I said I though that MJ was probably the real finder but I was unwilling to make a difinitive statement without my reread. Which I never had time to do. This post, and indeed the other post I made on that day are both orphans, because both were rushed and preliminary and hinged on the outcome of the reread.

Your second point is entirely unmerited. I said it was possible for an EJ/BS pairing, and that a case could be made, but it is unlikely at best. I'm going to disregard it, but it is enough that I'm not willing to CI EJ, or even VPI him. There, the only person I can be avsolutely sure is not evil who can reveive the kingship tomorrow is me, but I'm willing to trust EJ just enough that I'm going to put his hat in the ring, mainly because the other choice is you. I really doubt that they will be willing to make me king tomorrow, but I can't help but hope... And if they don't, at least EJ is a slim chance of being guilty, where I feel quite sure that you are. Better a slim chance than a remarkably large one.

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Stipe and Eminem are the FM, Cher was the symp. I will try to put this in as best order as I can but I don't want to spend anymore on this now. When I'm done here I'm going to go a build a snowman and enjoy the weekend. And I didn't do linked quotes as there are just too many but after I post this I may try to go back and insert them if I have time. My basic theory is that Stipe is the active FM directing a much less active FM Eminem. Cher was their symp. I believe that Stipe figured this out fairly early, thought she was too obvious and started distancing from her early as well.

I'll start with the first interaction b/t Cher and Stipe. Stipe requests for someone to help out the King with counting votes. I think he's looking for some response from a possible symp. Cher, of course, immediately responds.

Of significance for Day 1 is where Stipe and J.Lo discuss the length of Day1 where J.Lo says long D1 helps the innos. Stipe says he would prefer the a short day and Cher agrees that she likes them short(ie. not like inno J.Lo.).

(6 at 110) Next is post where she responds to JBJ about his "master plan." I think she's trying to drop symp clues. Not necessarily to JBJ obviously but generally for her masters.

MM shows late and in his second post includes a convenient excuse to be absent. He is going to be the less active, low-posting FM. Stipe will be the active and helpful FM.

(7 at 139) Stipe includes "murdering" among his list of daily activities. Clearly meant to be a joke but something that could be argued as "too obvious/stupid for a FM to do."

Cher then says she would vote for Stipe if she could. How convenient that she can’t but it’s nice small distancing move. Stipe responds that she’s trying to piss him off. He clearly doesn’t know yet that she’s the symp.

Then in post #157, Cher responds with “you’re not helping us any.†Trying to convey that they are together and that she would put a distancing vote on him early but this antagonizing statement should work just as well. At this point Stipe doesn’t know she’s the symp.

(8 at 166) But at he doesn’t get that she’s the symp and tells her to stop talking about him. Maybe the beginning of the case on Cher.

Stipe set a deadline for the vote with a few caveats that left him open to kill another player if he wished. If there was no majority, then he could do what he felt best. This basically directed the symp to try to keep the votes split if it was headed toward his partner.

(10 at 189 )MM and Stipe have some friendly banter. MM suspects and then votes Cher. Clearly they don’t know yet she’s the symp.

Stipe responds during this with, “I won’t lynch you.†The kind of post that can be laughed off later as too obvious.

MM mentions that he’s suspicious of me (post #191. page 10) but pushes the Cher case. This is likely defending Stipe by attacking his attacker, unknowing that she is their symp.

(12 at 235) Later at MM jumps on my mistake to make sure I stay in the spotlight but then quickly votes Mariah in post #238.

(12 at 256) Stipe offers up me or Jagger as the D1 lynch, but goes with Jagger.

(14 at 308) He supports MM’s suspicions of Cher. My theory is that they still don’t know she’s the symp. Or they’ve begun to suspect and this is the beginning of distancing. I think they’re not sure given the lack of participation by some of the players, but she may be the best option to them.

(19 at 380) MM lists his candidates for Day 2. Mariah and Cher #2. #2 is a nice place to put your symp. At some point you’re going to have to sacrifice them and it’ll be good to look back and point to where you suspected them

(22 at 422) Stipe lists Cher in his top tier and MM in his second. They’re ready to cut the symp if they need to.

(22 at 429) Cher is wary of Stipe but starts case on EJ.

(22 at 432) MM wonders if D1 King could be CI, hmmm???

(22 at 437) reminds everyone that he could be a killer. Of course, the mods would not put another CI into the game. This makes Stipe look reasonable and boosts his inno cred. MM then can promise to re-read Stipe and keep them apart.

(22 at 438) MM’s “lost post†so he can make a weak case pushing suspicion at both Cher and me. I’m always suspicious of this kind of thing, it’s an easy way to just avoid making a detailed case.

(23 at 443) Stipe calls me out. Though he’s careful to couch it in a way to stay on JBJ’s side.

(23 at 444) Stipe reviews Cher. I think at this point is where he decides that she is the symp but he also decides that she’ll be too obvious as such to the experienced players. His read on her in this post is mid-of –the-road, but He sees what she is here.

(23 at 447) He renews case on me to keep the suspicion up but ultimately backed away from it. Next post he votes Mariah but makes sure to keep a throw away comment on me even though he’d just said he thought I’m likely inno. Then in 451 agrees with Britney that I’m likely inno.

(23 at 454) This is the post where I think Cher is being too obvious as the symp and Stipe is slapping her down

(24 at 474) Look at this post and this conversation with Cher. This is where Stipe tells his symp that she’s been too obvious and that she’s on her own.

Fuck. I’m out of time for this.

Stipe nominates himself King .

Another post of interest ( 24 at 527) He throws in MM as a possible king candidate. He thinks Cher is the symp but votes for Mariah. He trusts MM as a king.

MM makes a BS case that MJ blows apart and Stipe makes NO COMMENT about it.

(26 at 523) MM PI’s Stipe after re-read abandoned. No real reasoning given.

(26 at528) MM supports Stipe kingship.

(27 at 534) “MM called it.†Re: Jagger’s lynch. Subtle build-up of MM’s inno cred.

----- CHER Reveals as FINDER ----- At that time Stipe and MM were voting for Mariah. They aren’t going to lynch the symp if I Mariah case can fly. No one defended Cher. They were letting her fall.

(27 at 569) Directs the symp to find and guard the finder. If the fake reveal draws them out great, if not find them and guard them

(27 at 571) “Your survival is your fault.†I think this is another statement that Cher was being too obvious.

(27 at 572) Supports Cher’s reveal and continues to push for Mariah lynch. Suggests that Cher could be Mariah’s symp.

(27 at 576) I think this an over-reaction to Mariah’s call out on alerting the symp to guard the finder. I think he was frustrated that maybe he had been too obvious.

(31 at 604) MM doesn’t trust Cher’s reveal as finder (Stipe does) But then agrees it’s a strong reveal.

----- MJ reveals -------------

(31 at 612) MM’s explanation of his Stipe re-read is weak.

(31 at 659) PI’s MJ. Ready to cut ties with Cher in finder battle.

(34 at 674) Cher suggest MM might be a good king.

(35 at 685) Stipe kisses up to Madonna trying to the kingship.

(36 at 716) Edited drunk post about wanting to be king. Who knows what it said?

(37 at 723) List several possibilities for Cher/MJ as symp. Leaves out the possibility that FM knew Cher was the symp and cut ties with her early.

(37 at 724) Stipe supports Cher while MM supports MJ.

(37 at 731) Again pushes me as the lynch

(37 at 741) This part gets meta and I’m not sure how I think about it. But after Gwen’s modkill and JBJ’s reaction, the FM are stuck in a position where if JBJ doesn’t get a guilty he’ll quit and the game will be broken. I think the FM want to continue the game that they are feeling pretty good about and are put in a position where they must offer up their symp. They will need only one more inno lynch to win. I think Stipe decides to offer up Cher and then go for a lynch against me the next day. He can put MM as his second suspect.

(37 at 751) Sets up the case against me for the next day by referring back to my RP from Day1.

(39 at 774) Cher is the symp and the FM are ready for end game by setting each up as the second suspect behind me. Encourages JBJ to lynch me.

(40 at 791/792) MM fuck up case post. I never read it. I distrust when edit a whole post. Especially when it was supposed to be a case against someone.

(40 at 793) Stipe distances after MM’s fuck up

(41 at 804) MM backs up Stipe against me.

(44 at 810) Stipe pushes case against me and MM. Bruce first!

(44 at 814) MM suggests Stipe as FM. They are ready for endgame.

OK, I’m sure there have been posts in the hours I’ve been working on this, but I’m done for today, come what may. The kid wants a snowman and I’m gonna build him one.

Stipe

edit: so the freezing rain has now eliminated snowmen building. :( So I edited some and tried for more uniform post cites.

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Why Stipe over MM?

He's the more active FM. I had 10 pages of notes on him and only 5 on MM so I guess he was more in my thoughts. Most of the post was directed at him since MM has hardly been active until today. They are both FM so you can lynch either.

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I am currently leaning toward lynching Eminem.

Anybody who objects to that, please try to convince me to choose somebody else.

Elton? Your suspects are Bruce and Stipe. Why not Eminem?

Madonna? Thoughts? What was it you were waiting to post? All 3 of the main suspects have spoken now, so I think it should be safe for you to post it.

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He's the more active FM. I had 10 pages of notes on him and only 5 on MM so I guess he was more in my thoughts. Most of the post was directed at him since MM has hardly been active until today. They are both FM so you can lynch either.

Okay. The reason why I'm leaning toward lynching Eminem is mainly because something has struck me as being 'off' about him the entire game. Its as if he was doing his best to look helpful, kiss up, be useful....without really aiding the cause of the innocents much at all. I know most people trusted him early on, but not me.

The only major thing holding me back at this point is the way Stipe defended you earlier in the game. He had you as a top suspect, and then made a case for why you should be moved down on the list. Seems a bit too open for a FM in a CF game...but it's still worrisome.

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I am currently leaning toward lynching Eminem.

Anybody who objects to that, please try to convince me to choose somebody else.

Elton? Your suspects are Bruce and Stipe. Why not Eminem?

Madonna? Thoughts? What was it you were waiting to post? All 3 of the main suspects have spoken now, so I think it should be safe for you to post it.

I'm back, was out for a bit. Weather is awful. After reading their cases, I've strengthened my position that Bruce and Eminem are partners. Distanced by naming each other, and ending with a vote on Stipe. The crux of my case is that both of them appear to be strong players, yet put forth only a cursory effort to appear helpful to or concerned about the innocents. Until they were pressured today, neither presented an authentic, original case that felt helpful. And most telling in my eyes, all of Cher's symp activity lead to Bruce and Eminem. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to go back and grab quotes (I have company), but I'll tell you that I am more than willing to trust Stipe. Enough even to crown him King for a second time if it comes down to it.

So I recommend killing Eminem. That's the only way I'll crown EJ at this point, since he sees a Bruce/Stipe connection. I don't want Stipe dead.

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So I recommend killing Eminem. That's the only way I'll crown EJ at this point, since he sees a Bruce/Stipe connection. I don't want Stipe dead.

Good point.

Not ready to post the lynch quite yet, but I'm curious....are any mods around right now?

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I had based my decision on the connections to Cher. I found more with Bruce and Stipe then I did with MM. Other then the connections, all three of them have done the same things with each other. THere have been some distancing between all of them. I know only one is innocnet, and I really have no idea which one to believe. That was why I was using the Cher connections.

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Good point.

Not ready to post the lynch quite yet, but I'm curious....are any mods around right now?

I'm around for a bit. I'm leaving in an hour or so for the Bengals game/dinner.

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I'm around for a bit. I'm leaving in an hour or so for the Bengals game/dinner.

Okay.

I'm lynching Eminem in 5 minutes, unless somebody has something to say to convince me otherwise.

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Not sure what I'm waiting for. The only people in the thread are me, the Hoff, and Cher's corpse. I doubt either of them are going to give me any advice.

vote off: Eminem

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FUCK YEAH!

Good news! Should I still crown EJ? I'd prefer whoever I crown kill Bruce as soon as they are crowned, as even if he's innocent, we can get the remaining suspect the next day.

Is this agreed?

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Good news! Should I still crown EJ?

Eminem couldn't have been symp to Cher, because he went after her too much. And if they were partners, the game would be over, since the only evil player left would be the symp.

That means Cher was definitely the symp. Which means Elton is VPI. Because Cher made a case against him.

So yeah...make Elton the King.

I'd prefer whoever I crown kill Bruce as soon as they are crowned, as even if he's innocent, we can get the remaining suspect the next day.

Is this agreed?

I'm not as convinced as you are, at this point. I think we have some discussion we need to go through tomorrow. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how we have 2 lynches left. We would if Gwen and Brit hadn't both been modkilled (honestly, in my mind, we have already won this game - without those modkills, we would have been able to lynch both suspects). But now....I only see us having 1 lynch left.

Right now, I expect them to kill you tonight, Madonna. You've been the most level headed, helpful person in the game. I expect them to get rid of you, unfortunately. :(

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Eminem couldn't have been symp to Cher, because he went after her too much. And if they were partners, the game would be over, since the only evil player left would be the symp.

That means Cher was definitely the symp. Which means Elton is VPI. Because Cher made a case against him.

So yeah...make Elton the King.

Agreed on him being VPI. I want to king him. I just don't want to make solo decisions.

I'm not as convinced as you are, at this point. I think we have some discussion we need to go through tomorrow. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how we have 2 lynches left. We would if Gwen and Brit hadn't both been modkilled (honestly, in my mind, we have already won this game - without those modkills, we would have been able to lynch both suspects). But now....I only see us having 1 lynch left.

Right now, I expect them to kill you tonight, Madonna. You've been the most level headed, helpful person in the game. I expect them to get rid of you, unfortunately. :(

I thought about it after I posted that, and yes, I expect to die tonight too. If so, I bet we'll have two claimants on Kingmaker tomorrow, one of which being Bruce. I was curious as to whether whoever I make King can end up Kingmaker if they were RI.

As for having an extra day, I hadn't thought it fully through as to what happens with the Kingmaker and the King as it gets down to the wire. If it randomly landed on the FM, yes, we'd lose. If it randomly landed on you or the other innocent, we'd be ok. So it's not a gaurentee that we have that extra day. Ugh.

Well, anyway, all my logic tell me to crown EJ. However, my gut tells me that the FM team kept Stipe around because Cher cast suspicion on him as an FM king, and if trust that and King him, we win. Either way I hope Bruce dies tomorrow.

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