AGOT Mafia 46.5

[House Corbray]

Day 1 will end at 11am est on January 25th.

Unless we lynch first. *eyes Upcliff eagerly*

I do have a question though, which I guess I could PM you but I'm too damn lazy. How will this affect modkills? I haven't done an activity check on everyone (nor will I), but it seems to me like two of my suspects (Lake and Elesham) are overdo for posts, and I'm wondering if I should bother pursuing them, basically.

I'll catch up on the rest of the thread now. Maybe it's selfish but I'm relieved that my absence was entirely unnoticed because of the board being all tempermental. Anyway, I'm back sooner than expected, so enjoy.

[House Dayne]

I'm sorry I've been rather busy these past couple days. My vote on Prester stands as I find his actions so far this day to be FM-ish. I'm afraid I will not be around at the deadline, and so will post final thoughts tonight before I go to bed.

[House Targaryen]

Unless we lynch first. *eyes Upcliff eagerly*

I do have a question though, which I guess I could PM you but I'm too damn lazy. How will this affect modkills? I haven't done an activity check on everyone (nor will I), but it seems to me like two of my suspects (Lake and Elesham) are overdo for posts, and I'm wondering if I should bother pursuing them, basically.

I'll catch up on the rest of the thread now. Maybe it's selfish but I'm relieved that my absence was entirely unnoticed because of the board being all tempermental. Anyway, I'm back sooner than expected, so enjoy.

Everyone gets 9 hour extension.

[House Frey]

Prester and Ambrose...

This morning when I checked the board there were 2 viable lynches... the two of you. Since I wasn't going to be back before the end of the day, and I knew we needed a lynch, I had to lay a vote. I felt laying a vote for anyone besides one of the two of you would have been pointless. Out of the 2 of you, I think Prester is most likely to be innocent (in other words, I think he is getting the shaft for poor play decisions based on the whole Elesham debacle.) Perhaps I should say, I think that Ambrose is more likely to be a FM. That is why my vote is for Ambrose.

From Inch:

I don't buy this reason, and the fact that you're defending the vote for him is a bit alarming. I realize you might have a vested interest in not getting voted off, but you had no reason to step in and explain his vote.

Also, there was plenty of reason for him to believe a lynch would still go through without him, what with ample time left and end of day usually being pretty busy.

I'll agree, I don't need Prester defending my vote.

However, Inch, there is no guarentee that a lynch would have gone through. And if the lynch hadn't gone through, if we were one vote short at the end of day, I would have been the player without a vote laid anywhere. And I know how that would have looked. Not to mention, I feel that everyone on the innocent's team has an obligation to make sure we have a lynch.

Now Inchfield, are you doing your part for the innocent team? It doesn't appear you are doing much to make sure a lynch goes through. You have one very safe vote on Hasty. I doesn't appear to me that it is doing much good there, so why leave it? Is one of your FM partners on the Prester lynch and the other on the Ambrose? Could it be you are spreading your votes around?

[House Wythers]

Prester and Ambrose...

This morning when I checked the board there were 2 viable lynches... the two of you. Since I wasn't going to be back before the end of the day, and I knew we needed a lynch, I had to lay a vote. I felt laying a vote for anyone besides one of the two of you would have been pointless. Out of the 2 of you, I think Prester is most likely to be innocent (in other words, I think he is getting the shaft for poor play decisions based on the whole Elesham debacle.) Perhaps I should say, I think that Ambrose is more likely to be a FM. That is why my vote is for Ambrose.

From Inch:

I'll agree, I don't need Prester defending my vote.

However, Inch, there is no guarentee that a lynch would have gone through. And if the lynch hadn't gone through, if we were one vote short at the end of day, I would have been the player without a vote laid anywhere. And I know how that would have looked. Not to mention, I feel that everyone on the innocent's team has an obligation to make sure we have a lynch.

Now Inchfield, are you doing your part for the innocent team? It doesn't appear you are doing much to make sure a lynch goes through. You have one very safe vote on Hasty. I doesn't appear to me that it is doing much good there, so why leave it? Is one of your FM partners on the Prester lynch and the other on the Ambrose? Could it be you are spreading your votes around?

How is poor play decisions indictive of being Innocent? FM could easily make poor play decisions. It's the context that what has to be taken in. He has focused on some players while not focusing on others for equally "stupid decisions". He's narrow-minded and his focus is on one player at one time and not really any much more, and I see his gameplay in directly benefiting him at every point of the game. I don't see how that is Innocent play.

[House Dondarrion]

This morning when I checked the board there were 2 viable lynches... the two of you. Since I wasn't going to be back before the end of the day, and I knew we needed a lynch, I had to lay a vote. I felt laying a vote for anyone besides one of the two of you would have been pointless. Out of the 2 of you, I think Prester is most likely to be innocent (in other words, I think he is getting the shaft for poor play decisions based on the whole Elesham debacle.) Perhaps I should say, I think that Ambrose is more likely to be a FM. That is why my vote is for Ambrose.

Ok. Leaving aside the fact that Prester was being pummeled for a lot more than just the Elesham vote retraction, what do you think now? I mean we have hours to spare at the moment, so it's hardly as if Prester and Ambrose are our only choices. I'd like to hear what you think now that your options aren't so restricted by the night deadline.

[House Clegane]

Gah. I'm going to save you my frustrated venting about how annoying and stupid this downtime has been and how it will brutally mess with my schedule (which, just so you know, I purposefully set up to allow me to be there for the end of each day). It's too late to change things, so suffice to say I will not be there for the end of the day tomorrow morning and I will most likely not be there for the end of day 2 either, although I may be if night 1 is short enough. I've only been able to skim the thread so far, but what I have seen has reinforced my opinions on Hasty and Prester. I'm going to have to look at things in greater detail before I say anything else. Really, this post was just a status update, but expect more from me before too long.

[Magic Mirror]

Hasty, I still don't understand why, if you suspected Upcliff more, you were tempted to vote for Prester over upcliff at the time. Your answer skirted the issue by saying you no longer wanted to vote for Prester. Although you confirmed to me that you were planning on lynching them both, which I see as a set up, but you backed off that plan a bit.

I thought I did answer that question? I did want to lynch them both, at the time. I'm waffling again on it now...although I couldn't read the board all day, I was musing on the possibility of Prester being crazy and evil vs. crazy and innocent. This is where I was with the Upcliff/Prester idea. Although at the time I felt like Upcliff was picking on Prester more and it seemed like a sign of Upcliff's guilt, I thought there was...oh, around a 33% probability that Prester could still be evil. (That is to say, still slightly higher than if we just picked any random person, so it still made sense for me to consider voting for him.)

I'm basically clueless, and I should be putting more time into the game than I am, but I hate day 1 and I want more information from the CF or nightkill or something. I'm almost tempted, like someone else said, to vote for Prester again just because it would give the most information.

Re: Not coming to any conclusions, I don't come to conclusions in this game without any concrete information.

[House Corbray]

Checking back before work. Didn't quite get as complete a re-read as I would have liked. At this early point i'm unwilling to add what could be the catalyst vote to the lynch of either Prester or Ambrose, so I'm leaving it where it is. Good luck.

Now this I really did not like. We need a lynch. At this point, there were what, three hours left? And several of us had said we'd be rushed and/or unavailable. I mean, Inchfield "poked" at a lot of people, and was vocal and all, but he didn't have big, huge (or at least, didn't seem to have) suspicions against Hasty (that's who he was voting, right?) so to refuse to vote for any of the viable candidates (and fail to make a last-minute push for his own) just seems incredibly unhelpful. Pick a side, Inch, and put your vote where your mouth is.

Upcliff could be Prester's partner. He's probably not Sunglass' partner.

He's certainly not my partner. He's plotting to kill me while I sleep. And I highly doubt he's Prester's partner. True, there have been partners who attack each other just because of the CF and WIFOM tricks and such, but...I highly doubt that's the case here. The tone of the thread made it seem very possible that Prester could be lynched, so that would be quite a risk to take on Day One. *shrugs*

I don't like the fact that he provided reasoning for vote on how he thought one person was innocent, not why one was an FM. The case should be whether or not the person is an FM, not because you think if the other one is "more" Innocent.

Because I seem to have an extra two cents in my pocket...

Obviously, I'm suspicious of Norcross. But I don't think his reasoning (or lack thereof) when placing the vote is suspicious. It happens all the time when it's close to deadline and there are only 2-3 people realistically on the block. Had I been able to get online this morning, I would have voted you as well, using the same reasoning--a lynch of someone who isn't CI is better than no lynch at all, and I think the other guy's more innocent than you, so there ya go.

But if you want to vote Norcross, feel free.

Also, there was plenty of reason for him to believe a lynch would still go through without him, what with ample time left and end of day usually being pretty busy.

I don't think 2 hours is "plenty of time", especially in the early American morning. I really hope if it comes to deadline tomorrow, people don't go "oh, well, there's two hours, so I'll just vote random subject X and then wander off and hope no one has problems getting to work/school/home from their lover's/whatever because of the snow, or can't get online due to an unexpected meeting/being very busy/shitty internet/whatever". That's just not responsible play.

[House Sunglass]

Now this I really did not like. We need a lynch. At this point, there were what, three hours left? And several of us had said we'd be rushed and/or unavailable. I mean, Inchfield "poked" at a lot of people, and was vocal and all, but he didn't have big, huge (or at least, didn't seem to have) suspicions against Hasty (that's who he was voting, right?) so to refuse to vote for any of the viable candidates (and fail to make a last-minute push for his own) just seems incredibly unhelpful. Pick a side, Inch, and put your vote where your mouth is.

Why are you attacking Inchfield for failing to vote for one of the 2 viable lynch options at the time, yet not saying anything about Uller, who did the same thing?

Well, this is it for me for the day. Looks like Ambrose is on 6 votes, so there should be no difficulty getting a lynch on him in the remaining three hours or so. Not the outcome I'd prefer, but immeasurably better than no lynch at all.

Anyway, I'll keep my vote on Norcross as I'd like to keep that on the record.

Be back later.

[House Dondarrion]

Why are you attacking Inchfield for failing to vote for one of the 2 viable lynch options at the time, yet not saying anything about Uller, who did the same thing?

Not really a response as to why Sunglass didn't attack me, but I'll note that there were 3 hours left when I made the post you quoted, not two.

[House Sunglass]

Not really a response as to why Sunglass didn't attack me, but I'll note that there were 3 hours left when I made the post you quoted, not two.

Day ended at noon eastern time and your post came at 10 a.m. eastern time, right? That's 2 hours.

Either way, your post came 76 minutes after Inchfield's post. If it was worth calling out Inchfield, then it should have been worth calling out you, since your post came even closer to the end of the day.

[House Clegane]

Alright, I have a bit more to say. Prester did continue to look suspiscious to me, and his defence of Norcross somehow seemed a bit overdone. Then again, Ambrose's attack on Norcross in the first place was based on reasoning that is beyond me, and I may well have reacted the same way, so I'm not actually going to make any connections based on that. Hasty still seems to be playing the game safely and opportunistically (while accusing me of the same, IIRC) and trying to keep on everyone's good side, so my suspiscion of him has actually increased. There's also something about Norcross, but nothing I'm really ready to comment on. Finally, my opinion of Sunglass has improved a bit. His play, especially during what he would have thought to be crunch periods, seemed to me to be sincere and genuinely attempting to help team innocent. At least for the moment I feel pretty good about him.

After that, I'm going to maintain my vote on Prester. He is still the most suspiscious person to me and either way (but especially if he's guilty) his CF result would provide a lot of useful information.

[House Dondarrion]

The board lives once more!

Day ended at noon eastern time and your post came at 10 a.m. eastern time, right? That's 2 hours.

Wierd. My time stamps:

Day 1 has begun!

Deadline is January 24, 12pm EST.

and:

Well, this is it for me for the day. Looks like Ambrose is on 6 votes, so there should be no difficulty getting a lynch on him in the remaining three hours or so. Not the outcome I'd prefer, but immeasurably better than no lynch at all.

Anyway, I'll keep my vote on Norcross as I'd like to keep that on the record.

Be back later.

That's at three hours to go by my count assuming a 48 hour day. I didn't think two votes in three hours was particularly unreasonable.

Either way, your post came 76 minutes after Inchfield's post. If it was worth calling out Inchfield, then it should have been worth calling out you, since your post came even closer to the end of the day.

Agreed, actually. I can't see why he didn't call me out over it if that's how he felt about Inchfield. Will be interested in hearing Sunglass' reasoning.

[House Upcliff]

Sorry for the long absence, but the board kept falling right when I had some time to post. I'll catch up with the last 5 pages and make a longer post.

If it comes down to lynching Ambrose or Prester, I'll probably keep my vote on Ambrose, though.

[House Targaryen]

Given that the board went down again, I'm extending the deadline to 1pm EST.

All modkills have been extended by 5 hours as that seemed to be how long it took for the board to come back up.

I'm really hating ASOIAF right now...a lot.

[House Upcliff]

Okay. Done.

I didn't really find that much that drew my attention. I think the day is stagnating slightly and we would do well lynching someone and getting it over with.

Two people promissed cases and then didn't make good on their word: Ambrose and Lake:

I just answered that suspicion, and to be honest, I'm working on a different case right now.

I have voiced my suspicions against Prester. If you find me suspicious of not putting a vote on, fine. But like I said, his steadfast stance in the face of pressure is making me wonder, and I'm rereading to see if my suspicions are justified..

I don't think that there's a terribly strong case to be made for Ambrose at the moment, but there might be a case to be made on Sunglass at the moment. I'm going to be doing a re-read and hash one out. Expect one later.

I'd like to know what Ambrose was working on and where's the case on Sunglass.

I liked Caron's points against Lefford on post 214 and Uller's points on Norcross on post 228. I think it would be interesting to pursue them further once we get a CF for today.

I agree with people who have voiced concerns about Uller and Inchfield seeming pretty oblivious to the deadline (as it was...). Do you think it's better to go to night than to lynch if the target of the lynch isn't your main suspect?

Both the Prester lynch and the Ambrose lynch give us considerable information, but I think Prester is not likely to be guilty, ao I'll keep my vote on Ambrose.

[House Tyrell]

Now this I really did not like. We need a lynch. At this point, there were what, three hours left? And several of us had said we'd be rushed and/or unavailable. I mean, Inchfield "poked" at a lot of people, and was vocal and all, but he didn't have big, huge (or at least, didn't seem to have) suspicions against Hasty (that's who he was voting, right?) so to refuse to vote for any of the viable candidates (and fail to make a last-minute push for his own) just seems incredibly unhelpful. Pick a side, Inch, and put your vote where your mouth is.

There was over four hours left when I made that post. Plenty of time for the suspects to defend themselves, new information to come to light, and for a lynch to happen. I do not like leaving an early vote for your 'viable candidates' who I believe could be innocent, and with 5 minutes to get to work, how the hell was I supposed to push Hasty. I'd laid my suspicions out, asked and re-asked questions. Sorry, but like I said the night before, this new job I'm on was last minute (as in, I found out about it at 11 p.m. EST wednesday, starting on it at 8 a.m. thursday monring), and made this mafia game a bit rough on me. As it stands, I won't be home for end of day today either.

I thought I did answer that question? I did want to lynch them both, at the time. I'm waffling again on it now...although I couldn't read the board all day, I was musing on the possibility of Prester being crazy and evil vs. crazy and innocent. This is where I was with the Upcliff/Prester idea. Although at the time I felt like Upcliff was picking on Prester more and it seemed like a sign of Upcliff's guilt, I thought there was...oh, around a 33% probability that Prester could still be evil. (That is to say, still slightly higher than if we just picked any random person, so it still made sense for me to consider voting for him.)

I'm basically clueless, and I should be putting more time into the game than I am, but I hate day 1 and I want more information from the CF or nightkill or something. I'm almost tempted, like someone else said, to vote for Prester again just because it would give the most information.

Thank you for the information. I'll kindly Remove Vote on you for the time being.

Now Inchfield, are you doing your part for the innocent team? It doesn't appear you are doing much to make sure a lynch goes through. You have one very safe vote on Hasty. I doesn't appear to me that it is doing much good there, so why leave it? Is one of your FM partners on the Prester lynch and the other on the Ambrose? Could it be you are spreading your votes around?

So laying out a case, and, hoping to get answers, voting for the person who has me most suspicious wasn't doing my part? In case it needs spelled out yet again, I had every reason to believe someone would be lynched in the next four hours, and I do not like missing end of day with my vote sitting importantly on one of two candidates, when between my going to bed and going to work, not much new information came out.

The last part of your post did nothing but make me more suspicious of you.

If I'm forced to pick between Prester and Ambrose, I'd vote Prester. The ENTIRE Ambrose lynch is based on one post. Since the deadline extension, Prester has once again made me question his motives.

I'd prefer to vote Norcross or Hasty, and would rather vote Prester than Ambrose. I will shower, and muse on it before I leave in 20 minutes.

[House Tyrell]

I should be back for the last hour, but no gaurentee. I will leave a preliminary vote on Prester. If I get back and there's no new info, I'd prefer a Norcross lynch.

[Lady Gaga]

Well, I won't be around at 1PM EST at all. Alas.

At this point, the more I think about it, the more I want to see a Prester lynch. Most every player's stated some opinion on him, which would give us a nice bit of info from a Day 1 lynch. It'd give us something to talk about on Day 2 for a change, and that's always pleasant. Assuming worst-case scenario with three FMs, we can get away with three innocent lynches before we've lost...

Ah, fuck this. Too early in the morning for thinking. Ambrose.