ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

[Shadowbaby]

Thoughts:

Crusader - My vibes tell me he's innocent. I think we should lynch him somewhere down the line anyway since we do have a margin for error and, well, his inactivity really shouldn't be condoned.

Filter - PI, I suppose. He's playing reasonably. Admittedly, I think he'd still be playing pretty reasonably if he were an FM. He never voted Gert, but he also put a very early vote on Daed. It could be argued that Daed was doomed, so the sooner Daed's partner cut ties the better, but I don't think he was that doomed.

Halo - I got funny vibes from him. I did reread him and found absolutely nothing incriminating. So he hasn't been the most aggressive player, but that's no proof of guilt.

JKMan - ...Quite frankly, I don't remember much of anything that JKMan's said. He's not so inactive as Crusader. Were he an FM, I actually think he'd be a little bit more confident, especially earlier in the game. He'd have had someone to hold his hand, after all.

Kat - The WJ Sheep. I consider her PI, no bad vibes.

Kilgrey - I said I had her as VPI early on. Nothing's changed. My general lack of bad vibes now might've dropped her down to PI, but either way, not my preferred lynch at all.

Piper of Chaos - PI. He's playing like an innocent Piper, imo.

Shadowbaby - I'm not the FM, guys. For real. Since the lone FM clearly wasn't guarded, then I think the next easiest assumption is that they tried to kill either WJ or Thio. With that assumption, then the FM's got to be someone that's willing to gamble that they'd be able to NK either of our roled players that wouldn't be healed. That, or they just withheld. Alas.

Thiocyanide - VPI. I think he really is the innocent guard. I suppose he could be an FM guard, but I think the chances of that are remarkably slim.

Whiskeyjack - CI, now that he's clearly not the SK. Too bad his evil-lynching streak's going to come to an abrupt end after you all get my CF result.

a homeless harpy - *shrug* No clue what's up with Harpy.

[KilGrey]

Thoughts:

Crusader - My vibes tell me he's innocent. I think we should lynch him somewhere down the line anyway since we do have a margin for error and, well, his inactivity really shouldn't be condoned.

Filter - PI, I suppose. He's playing reasonably. Admittedly, I think he'd still be playing pretty reasonably if he were an FM. He never voted Gert, but he also put a very early vote on Daed. It could be argued that Daed was doomed, so the sooner Daed's partner cut ties the better, but I don't think he was that doomed.

Halo - I got funny vibes from him. I did reread him and found absolutely nothing incriminating. So he hasn't been the most aggressive player, but that's no proof of guilt.

JKMan - ...Quite frankly, I don't remember much of anything that JKMan's said. He's not so inactive as Crusader. Were he an FM, I actually think he'd be a little bit more confident, especially earlier in the game. He'd have had someone to hold his hand, after all.

Kat - The WJ Sheep. I consider her PI, no bad vibes.

Kilgrey - I said I had her as VPI early on. Nothing's changed. My general lack of bad vibes now might've dropped her down to PI, but either way, not my preferred lynch at all.

Piper of Chaos - PI. He's playing like an innocent Piper, imo.

Shadowbaby - I'm not the FM, guys. For real. Since the lone FM clearly wasn't guarded, then I think the next easiest assumption is that they tried to kill either WJ or Thio. With that assumption, then the FM's got to be someone that's willing to gamble that they'd be able to NK either of our roled players that wouldn't be healed. That, or they just withheld. Alas.

Thiocyanide - VPI. I think he really is the innocent guard. I suppose he could be an FM guard, but I think the chances of that are remarkably slim.

Whiskeyjack - CI, now that he's clearly not the SK. Too bad his evil-lynching streak's going to come to an abrupt end after you all get my CF result.

a homeless harpy - *shrug* No clue what's up with Harpy.

I don't believe in CIs until a cardflip or at least a cop investigation, even then it can be wrong given sanities.

There is something in your post I think you are implying. If you are implying what I think you are implying and were guarded last night that would leave some confusion as to last nights results. Did I read you wrong?

[Shadowbaby]

Well... I think you all should lynch me. Unless WJ used his investigation on me (an action I would not approve of, and can't really fathom him doing), you don't know if I'm innocent or not. Oh, sure, I do, but you don't.

We've taken out two of the FM. We've taken out the SK. We have a huge margin for error. You all can stand for a few false lynches. I don't see any reason for me to live beyond today. I'd rather not have Thio waste his guard action on me night after night, and I don't see him guarding anyone else if I survive today. And he'd be right to do so. I'd be wrong to keep living. I don't see how my continued survival will benefit the innocents.

There is something in your post I think you are implying. If you are implying what I think you are implying and were guarded last night that would leave some confusion as to last nights results. Did I read you wrong?

I imply nothing. I am RI.

Anyhow, I'm out for the night.

[Whiskeyjack]

I'm here, one second. Held up from posting by a phone call.

[haLobEnder]

Removing my vote until we've heard from WJ.

[Filter]

I'm here, one second. Held up from posting by a phone call.

Get off of dial-up imo. Time to upgrade to cable/dsl

[Whiskeyjack]

Okay, so I got a bit paranoid and messed up. I investigated the wrong person, and now you're all going to think I'm an idiot for wasting my power. Well, I'm sorry.

I started wondering....what if Thio is the Guard, but he's not innocent. Could have been a FM Guard. Gert even mentioned the possibility of one earlier in the game. Could have been a slip up where she revealed too much information.

In hindsight it was a stupid thought. And yeah, my investigation was a waste. But I can confirm that Thio is innocent.

[Whiskeyjack]

Get off of dial-up imo. Time to upgrade to cable/dsl

The phone call was taking up my attention, not my internet.

[Thiocyanide]

Okay, so I got a bit paranoid and messed up. I investigated the wrong person, and now you're all going to think I'm an idiot for wasting my power. Well, I'm sorry.

I started wondering....what if Thio is the Guard, but he's not innocent. Could have been a FM Guard. Gert even mentioned the possibility of one earlier in the game. Could have been a slip up where she revealed too much information.

In hindsight it was a stupid thought. And yeah, my investigation was a waste. But I can confirm that Thio is innocent.

Honestly, WJ, I'm not that stupid.

Well, it's really down to... Me not dying. Healer, gimme some love! I'm willing to guard whomever... Just give me a target. I'm not sure who the last FM is here.

[haLobEnder]

Okay, so I got a bit paranoid and messed up. I investigated the wrong person, and now you're all going to think I'm an idiot for wasting my power. Well, I'm sorry.

I started wondering....what if Thio is the Guard, but he's not innocent. Could have been a FM Guard. Gert even mentioned the possibility of one earlier in the game. Could have been a slip up where she revealed too much information.

In hindsight it was a stupid thought. And yeah, my investigation was a waste. But I can confirm that Thio is innocent.

This doesn't do any wonders for my crackpot 'for some reason the FM team was made super powerful and WJ is a symp who sacrificed Gert and Daed just so he can get his third master Thio to the end game' theory I can't completely shake from the back of my mind

Ok, lets see here. Who could be the last FM? Is it more likely that Gert and Daed made no reference to their third partner or try to cast them in a negative light given that they knew they were a sinking ship? Me thinks it's time for a reread.

[Whiskeyjack]

Taking another look at everyone in the game.

Thio - proven to be an innocent Guard, through investigation - he is CI

Kat - first vote on Gert day 1, and she kept the vote there all day - she is PI

Halo - on Lany's innocent list, so he wouldn't have wanted to kill her; also, he coded his holiday at the start of the game and he pushed for the mass holiday reveal - all before I ever received my fake holiday to claim

Harpy - on Lany's innocent list, so she wouldn't have wanted to kill her; also, she revealed as Thanksgiving first, before I ever received my fake holiday to claim

Piper - just don't think he would ever fail to cut ties with his partners and vote for them; maybe 1, but not both; plus his gameplay screams 'innocent Piper' to me

Kilgrey - don't see why she would defend a doomed partner, like what she did for Daedalus at the end of day 2

Filter - main point in his favor is his early day 2 vote for Daedalus - but we should remember that Daedalus was in a lot of trouble at that point, and Filter could have been cutting ties early; he never voted for Gert, but he said he would - could have been stalling to give her time to fake claim a good role?

JKMan - voted for Gert, but it came late - could have been cutting ties with a doomed partner; said he suspected Daedalus but never voted for him

Crusader - never voted for either FM - no real information here

Shadowbaby - Daedalus' suspect on day 1 before he was ever under much suspicion; also the alternative lynch to Gert; at the same time, she was guarded last night and there wasn't a kill, which is suspicious

Okay, so I think the points in favor of Shadowbaby being innocent are strong. But I can't ignore that she was guarded and we didn't have a kill. That's certainly a point against her. I'm not certain what to do about her right now.

Taking her out of the equation for a moment, these are how I rank my suspects:

Tier 1 - Crusader, JKMan

Tier 2 - Filter

Tier 3 - Kilgrey

Tier 4 - Harpy, Halo, Piper

Tier 5 - Kat

The question is whether or not we should lynch Shadow. My top alternatives to her are Crusader or JKMan.

[Whiskeyjack]

This doesn't do any wonders for my crackpot 'for some reason the FM team was made super powerful and WJ is a symp who sacrificed Gert and Daed just so he can get his third master Thio to the end game' theory I can't completely shake from the back of my mind

Hopefully everybody knows me better than that.

[Thiocyanide]

You guys can do rereads, whatever, etc. Just don't lynch anybody before about 2 EST tomorrow... I need to know who I'm going to be guarding.

And with that, I get off for the night. Three great lynches in three days - Nice job, all. Let's finish off the FMs and wrap this up.

EDIT: I'd like to note, Shadowbaby, that an FM wouldn't have to withold their kill. They could easily kill a nonposter like Crusader and nobody would know who had killed him.

EDIT2: Also, I recall every guilty player being exasperated people were voting for them and telling them they'd regret the decision, or asking them to reconsider, etc... Not like the playstyles of each player necessarily coincide, but it's a correlation nonetheless.

[KilGrey]

Harpy - on Lany's innocent list, so she wouldn't have wanted to kill her; also, she revealed as Thanksgiving first, before I ever received my fake holiday to claim

This is contradictory to what you said earlier about not thinking she'd have paid attention to who had her as innocent or not. And again, a threat is a threat regardless of of they are currently on your side of not.

I also don't put much weight into the 'scum got fake holidays late' theory. You don't know if they forgot everyones or just yours. I really doubt the mods would let it slip that they forgot it for the scum as well. This is part of the problem with mass claims, not only can it lead to breaking the game and going against the spirit of the game, but then there are flavor type arguments such as this.

I need to know who I'm going to be guarding.

How about you not say in the thread who you are going to be blocking tonight? I think it's a good idea.

[Whiskeyjack]

This is contradictory to what you said earlier about not thinking she'd have paid attention to who had her as innocent or not.

Umm, no....it's not contradictory at all. But it's not really something worth debating, because it's a pretty irrelevant point.

I also don't put much weight into the 'scum got fake holidays late' theory. You don't know if they forgot everyones or just yours. I really doubt the mods would let it slip that they forgot it for the scum as well.

Think what you want. I know the reality of the situation. Harpy and Halo are very low on my suspect list as a result.

[Whiskeyjack]

Thoughts:

You know, you kind of don't suspect anybody. Can you please rank your top suspects.

Crusader - My vibes tell me he's innocent. I think we should lynch him somewhere down the line anyway since we do have a margin for error and, well, his inactivity really shouldn't be condoned.

Please don't continue to talk about us having a huge margin for error. We can still mess this up. We only have 5 lynches left, and while I personally only have 5 suspects at most right now, I can't guarantee that all of them are going to be lynched.

Why do your vibes tell you that he's innocent. I'd like for you to elaborate on that a bit.

Filter - PI, I suppose. He's playing reasonably. Admittedly, I think he'd still be playing pretty reasonably if he were an FM. He never voted Gert, but he also put a very early vote on Daed. It could be argued that Daed was doomed, so the sooner Daed's partner cut ties the better, but I don't think he was that doomed.

PI? I don't see that at all. He's not at the top of my list, and the early vote for Daedalus is a point in his favor. I wouldn't lynch him before Crusader or JKMan. But process of elimination has him as one of the top remaining suspects. There's nothing out there that makes him PI. Don't mistake reasonableness for innocence.

JKMan - ...Quite frankly, I don't remember much of anything that JKMan's said. He's not so inactive as Crusader. Were he an FM, I actually think he'd be a little bit more confident, especially earlier in the game. He'd have had someone to hold his hand, after all.

Having experienced partners doesn't necessarily mean that he'd know how to act in the thread. Sometimes, our games can be overwhelming to new players, regardless of their role.

Kilgrey - I said I had her as VPI early on. Nothing's changed. My general lack of bad vibes now might've dropped her down to PI, but either way, not my preferred lynch at all.

That was based on one post to check in. I don't get it. I don't have her as a top suspect, but VPI is ridiculous.

[KilGrey]

Umm, no....it's not contradictory at all. But it's not really something worth debating, because it's a pretty irrelevant point.

Think what you want. I know the reality of the situation. Harpy and Halo are very low on my suspect list as a result.

Much like not everything is an attack against you, not everything is asking you for a debate. I saw something I thought you said differently earlier and wondered on the change of heart. Christ, you really need a xanax or something.

[House Dondarrion]

It is day 4.

11 players remain: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Shadowbaby (Thiocyanide)

10 players have not voted: Crusader, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Piper of Chaos, Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

32-ish hours left.

Good night players. Aly-mod will be on soon.

[Whiskeyjack]

Much like not everything is an attack against you, not everything is asking you for a debate. I saw something I thought you said differently earlier and wondered on the change of heart. Christ, you really need a xanax or something.

That was me avoiding the debate. I don't see anything in my response that would prompt you to think that I was looking for an argument.

I wasn't confrontational. I merely dismissed your points as incorrect and irrelevant. That makes me 'need a xanax'? What does that even mean?

And are we really going to go to a personal level now? You don't even know me, and you're spouting off with the lectures and personal attacks as if you've been around forever. I've been relatively nice to you so far. All I'm doing is playing the game. But if you continue with the ridiculous, personal bullshit, I'll respond in kind. Your act might be allowed on the Something Awful forums, or whatever pit Mexal dragged you from, but it's not allowed here.

So why don't you step back, drop your unnatural obsession with me, and focus on playing the game.

[Kat]

Which one of JKMan/Crusader claimed NZ Independence Day? Wasn't that one of them? Can we kill that person before the other, if we;re just going to lynch everyone?